Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $76,670,633 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Filip Chytil (one year, $894K)
D Adam Fox (two years, $925K)
F Julien Gauthier (one year, $863K)
F Brett Howden (one year, $863K)
F Kaapo Kakko (two years, $925K)
F Alexis Lafreniere (three years, $925K)
D Ryan Lindgren (one year, $925K)
G Igor Shesterkin (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Chytil: $350K
Fox: $850K
Gauthier: $300K
Kakko: $2.65MM
Lafreniere: $2.85MM
Lindgren: $212.5K
Shesterkin: $2.85MM
Total: $10.0625MM

It’s not very often that a team basically has more than a third of their roster on entry-level deals but that’s the case here.  The total bonuses actually exceed the 7.5% bonus cushion so there is a dead cap charge of $3.95MM on the books as things stand and it’s extremely rare for a team to be in that situation but that just shows how many talented youngsters the Rangers have.

Lafreniere was the top pick of the draft back in October and is expected to step into a top-six role right away (or very soon after).  As someone that should make a sizable impact right away, he could easily jump into the $7MM or more range on his next contract.  Kakko, the second-overall pick in 2019, had a difficult rookie season.  That could play a role in talks for his next deal depending on how 2020-21 goes.  If he takes off, then like Lafreniere, he could bypass the bridge contract altogether and go straight to top money.  If he doesn’t, then the likelihood of a short-term second deal becomes much stronger.

Chytil could be their second center of the future but it will take a couple more years for him to have a shot at jumping into that role.  It’s difficult to envision them paying him top-six money before he really establishes himself so a bridge deal is likely.  The same can be said for Howden who established himself as a regular in their bottom six but he’s unlikely to command a significant raise if his production is similar this year.  Gauthier was brought in from Carolina in a late-season trade but has been a fourth liner almost exclusively in his limited NHL action.  He’s in the type of situation where a small dip in pay to get a one-way deal or a higher AHL salary is the standard unless he plays himself into a more prominent role.  Vitali Kravtsov (two years, $925K plus $850K in bonuses) will stay in the KHL through the end of their season but is an option to be recalled once that season comes to an end though their bonus situation may affect those plans.

Fox had an impressive rookie season and narrowly missed out on being a finalist for the Calder Trophy.  42 points from a defenseman is impressive in any year and even if he ‘only’ produces around that mark the next couple of years instead of increasing his point-per-game output, he’s a safe bet for a sizable raise already.  Lindgren has a limited ceiling but fits in well on the third pairing.  Another season in a regular role should give him a bit of a raise but without arbitration rights, he’ll be limited in what he can get next summer.  K’Andre Miller (three years, $925K plus $300K in bonuses) could also play himself into the mix at some point.

Shesterkin still has very limited NHL experience (just a dozen games) but he enters 2020-21 as the presumptive starter.  He made an immediate impact to help carry New York down the stretch last season and if he picks up where he left off, GM Jeff Gorton may try to work out a long-term pact.  If not, a one or two-year deal that allows him to further establish himself before trying to command number one money makes sense.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Pavel Buchnevich ($3.25MM, RFA)
D Jack Johnson ($1.15MM, UFA)
D Brendan Smith ($4.35MM, UFA)

Buchnevich has shown flashes of top-end offensive play throughout his career but inconsistency has been an issue although he did improve on that last year while setting a new benchmark in points with 46.  Assuming he produces at a similar per-game rate this season, the Rangers shouldn’t have much issue tendering a $3MM qualifying offer although in this market, he may not be in great shape to get much more than that.

Smith’s contract has been burdensome for New York basically ever since he signed it as in the first year, he was sent to the minors.  He has done well to carve out a small niche role as a blueliner that can also hold his own on the wing but while that might help him earn another contract, it would be for about a quarter of what he’s making now.  Johnson was bought out by Pittsburgh this offseason and quickly signed with the Rangers.  He’s likely to have a limited role and even if he does rebuild his value a little bit, he shouldn’t be able to command much more a year from now.

Two Years Remaining

D Anthony Bitetto ($737.5K, UFA)
D Anthony DeAngelo ($4.8MM, RFA)
G Alexandar Georgiev ($2.425MM, RFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($1.55MM, RFA)
F Kevin Rooney ($750K, UFA)
F Ryan Strome ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Mika Zibanejad ($5.35MM, UFA)

It took a bit of time but Zibanejad has emerged as a legitimate number one center and actually beat his 2018-19 point total (74) despite playing in 27 fewer games last season.  While he has eight full NHL seasons under his belt already, he’s still just 27 and will hit the open market at 29 if the two sides can’t agree on an extension by then.  The financial situation league-wide probably won’t have fully recovered by then but at the same time, top centers rarely become available.  If Zibanejad, a top defensive forward on top of his newly-found offensive prowess, can hover around a 70-point pace for these next two years, he could add $3MM to $4MM to his AAV on his next deal.  Without a top option in the system, this will be a priority case for Gorton when he’s eligible for an extension next season.

Strome is coming off of a career year but even that wasn’t enough to guarantee him a qualifying offer as a decision came down to the final few minutes before it was tendered.  They settled on this contract to avoid arbitration and add a year of team control which gives Chytil more time to develop.  Given that he has struggled offensively with two previous teams, he’ll need to show this was more than a one-time bump in output to have a shot at besting this contract two years from now.  Lemieux doesn’t have the offensive upside to play in the top six but he has been an effective physical player which earned him a two-year deal this offseason.  Until he produces more consistently though, his earnings upside will be limited to not much higher than this.  Rooney was brought in from rival New Jersey in free agency and should battle for a spot on the fourth line.  That’s a roster spot that will need to stay at or close to the minimum in future years.

DeAngelo didn’t have much leverage a year ago when he basically had to sign a one-year, show-me deal.  He showed the Rangers and the rest of the league plenty as he was among the top offensive blueliners in the league, earning himself nearly a $4MM raise in the process.  He has played his way into a core role on the team and should be well-positioned for another notable jump if he performs at a similar level the next two seasons as he’ll be a year out from UFA eligibility when his next contract begins.  Bitetto is the favorite for the seventh spot on the back end and like Rooney’s situation, it’s a roster slot that will need to remain at a similar price tag whether it’s him or someone else in that role.

Georgiev has done enough to show that there’s still some upside but it’s fair to wonder if he is viewed as a number one goalie elsewhere.  He’s going to have a hard time commanding number one money if he’s behind Shesterkin but the good news is that top backups can still push for a deal around $1MM higher than his current one.  Assuming their goaltending situation goes according to plan, that’s what Georgiev’s next contract target should be.

Three Years Remaining

There are no non-entry-level contracts of this length.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Chris Kreider ($6.5MM through 2026-27)
F Artemi Panarin ($11.643MM through 2025-26)
D Jacob Trouba ($8MM through 2025-26)

Panarin’s record-breaking contract was certainly notable, especially since it came from a team that was still rebuilding but while it can’t ever really be called a bargain, he lived up to his price tag in the first year of the deal.  He and Strome worked well together and the end result was Panarin setting new career highs while finishing tied for third in the league in scoring.  As is often the case with long-term deals, the last couple of years could be problematic but right now, in the prime of his career, they should get a good return for a while.  Kreider signed just weeks before the pandemic hit and that probably was a wise move as a similar contract probably wouldn’t have been available on the open market.  He’s a power forward in the prime of his career but there’s some risk at the back end as well, especially since players that play his style can become more injury-prone as they age.

Trouba got his opportunity to play a bigger role last season and while he didn’t play poorly by any stretch, he didn’t produce like a top defenseman making $8MM either.  The presence of Fox and DeAngelo certainly helps take the offensive pressure off but they’ll be counting on more from him to avoid this deal being an issue as it progresses.

Buyouts

D Dan Girardi ($1.11MM through 2022-23)
G Henrik Lundqvist ($5.5MM in 2020-21, $1.5MM in 2021-22)
F Brad Richards ($0 cap hit as it was a compliance buyout but he’s owed $1.056 MM per year through 2025-26)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($6..083MM in 2020-21, $1.433MM in 2021-22 and 2022-23)
F Ryan Spooner ($300K in 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Zibanejad
Worst Value: Smith

Looking Ahead

The Rangers have a very unique salary structure this season with so many players on entry-level contracts, so many bonuses that present an additional cap challenge, and nearly $13MM in dead money from buyouts.  And despite all of that, they’re in cap compliance with a bit of room for in-season movement which is certainly promising.

There are tough days ahead, however, with several of their top youngsters expected to command significant raises on their entry-level salaries plus Zibanejad basically being in a must-keep situation that will cost several million more.  They should have some short-term flexibility to add one-year players next offseason with a big chunk coming off the books but they’ve had cap issues in recent years and before long, they’ll have cap issues again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.