Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $81,242,031 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Jake Oettinger (two years, $925K)
F Joel Kiviranta (one year, $925K)
D Miro Heiskanen (one year, $894K)
D Thomas Harley (three  years, $894K)
F Jason Robertson (two years, $795K)

Potential Bonuses
Heiskanen: $2.5MM
Oettinger: $425K
Harley: $213K
Robertson: $83K

Total: $3.25MM

The Stars are loaded with top prospects coming through the system quickly now, but one name stands out in Heiskanen, who the team will likely want to lock up long-term. The 21-year-old has been an amazing addition to the team’s defense over the past two years and is a major reason for their appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals last season. The blueliner posted a solid 33 and 35 point over the first two seasons, but he took that up a notch in the playoffs, posting six goals and 26 points in 27 playoff games, suggesting he has the potential to become a high-scoring offensive defenseman to go with his shutdown skills.

Kiviranta also made his mark during the playoffs, scoring several key goals during the playoffs, while the team could quickly turn to youngsters Harley, Oettinger and Robertson to step in and contribute this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Andrew Cogliano ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Blake Comeau ($2.4MM, UFA)
D Stephen Johns ($2.35MM, UFA)
D Jamie Oleksiak ($2.14MM, UFA)
F Jason Dickinson ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
D Mark Pysyk ($750K, UFA)
D Taylor Fedun ($738K, UFA)
D Julius Honka ($700K, RFA)

While the team has quite a bit of youth and veteran talent, the team has quite a few contracts coming off the books in one year and players like Cogliano and Comeau will have to prove their value to receive new contracts at potentially smaller contracts. The same goes on defense where a number of veterans come off the books including Johns and Oleksiak, both who give the Stars significant physicality. The team must determine if either can come back, especially Johns who returned from a long-standing concussion last season, but then sat out the playoffs due to concern over the same injury.

Dickinson, who has been a solid contributor in the bottom-six is another player expected to return, while Dallas will take long looks at their significant defensive depth in Pysyk and Fedun. Honka is another interesting situation after he spent last season overseas. The 2014 first rounder has struggled to establish himself in Dallas over the years and now will have to prove himself, likely in the AHL.

Two Years Remaining

F Joe Pavelski ($7MM, UFA)
F Alexander Radulov ($6.25MM, UFA)
D John Klingberg ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Denis Gurianov ($2.55MM, RFA)
D Andrej Sekera ($1.5MM, UFA)

Quite a bit of their money comes off the books in two years as the contracts of Pavelski, Radulov and Klingberg are up. That’s $17.5MM. That likely will end the tenures of Pavelski, who will be 38 years old then, while Radulov will be 36. The hope is that both players will be big contributors over the next two years as Dallas will do everything it can to return to the Stanley Cup Finals once again. While Pavelski struggled during the regular season with just 15 goals, he did step up when it counted, posting 13 goals and 19 points in the playoffs. Radulov also struggled with just 15 goals during the season, but fared much better in the playoffs with eight goals and 18 points in 27 games.

Klingberg is a different story. The team’s top defenseman just a year ago, Klingberg saw his offensive numbers slide during the regular season and in many ways seems to be overshadowed by the Stars’ young blueline. With Heiskanen likely to be granted a big contract soon, the status of Klingberg could be an interesting story, whether the team will overpay to lock him up or let him hit unrestricted free agency.

Gurianov has two years to prove that his numbers from last year are real. After having some issues a year ago in the AHL, Gurianov returned to North America last year and showed off his talent, scoring 20 goals in 64 games. If he can prove that he can be a consistent 20-goal scorer over these next two years, he also should get some of that freed up money.

Three Years Remaining

G Ben Bishop ($4.92MM, UFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Roope Hintz ($3.15MM, RFA)

The team hope that Oettinger will have established himself as the goalie of the future in three years. That’s how long the team has to find someone as it seems unlikely that Dallas will keep Bishop and Khudobin since both will be 37 years old when their contracts expire. Both have been critical to the success of the team last year and Khudobin was rewarded with a three-year deal this offseason, especially considering that Bishop is expected to miss significant time this season due to injury.

Hintz, on the other hand, had a breakout season in his second year. The 24-year-old scored 19 goals and 33 points and looks like a future star for Dallas in the coming seasons, which suggests that his $3.15MM deal over the next three years could look like a significant bargain.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Tyler Seguin ($9.85MM through 2026-27)
F Jamie Benn ($9.5MM through 2024-25)
D Esa Lindell ($5.8MM through 2024-25)
F Radek Faksa ($3.25MM through 2024-25)

This is where most of their money is going for quite a while as Benn is still locked in for five more years, while Seguin himself is signed for another 10 years. Neither provided what the team needed last season as both players struggled during the season. Benn scored just 39 points last season, a major decline in his play for someone who has five years left on his contract. However, the veteran did come back and show his value in the playoffs, scoring eight goals and 19 points in 27 games. The team has to hope that Benn can bounce back now that he’s on the wrong side of 30. Seguin is a different matter. The 28-year-old saw a big decline from the previous season as he saw a 30-point decline. However, Seguin was dealing with a hip injury that obviously kept him playing his best. He managed just two goals in 26 games during the playoffs. He underwent surgery in November and was given a five-month timeline for recovery, meaning that he could miss a major chunk of the upcoming season. However, the hope is that he will then be fully healthy and should return to form.

Both Lindell and Faksa, key players on the team, have been locked up as well to reasonable deals and hopefully will save the team quite a bit of money down the road.

Buyouts

Valeri Nichushkin ($450K in 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Klingberg
Worst Value: Benn

Looking Ahead

In many ways, the Stars are in good shape with big contracts spaced out, giving Dallas plenty of opportunities to use freed up money to either lock up their core of young players or go out and add veteran free agents like they were able to do last year with Pavelski and Corey Perry. The key to their success will be the two long-term deals handed out to Benn and Seguin. If both players and continue to show they are first-line forwards, the Dallas has the potential to be perennial contributors for the next few years, especially considering they have a number of top young players who are close to making an impact on their team soon. Sounds like a bright future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.