PHR Mailbag: Rangers, Lightning, Ducks, Barkov, World Juniors, Steen, Trades

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Rangers’ chances of contention, Tampa Bay’s cap situation, Anaheim’s future, fits for Aleksander Barkov if he wants to leave Florida, World Juniors predictions, who could replace Alex Steen in St. Louis, and what the trade market may look like in this unique season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

gg24: Are the Rangers a true contender?

This season?  I’d say no.  The short-term divisional realignment does not work in their favor.  Boston should still contend while Pittsburgh and Washington always seem to get near the top of the division as well.  Philadelphia is certainly a team on the rise and their fellow New York rivals in the Islanders have shown that even without an overly strong roster on paper, they’ll be in the mix as well.  The Rangers would have to jump two of those teams simply to make the playoffs (assuming they use divisional playoffs without a Wild Card system which would be needed due to the Canadian division).  Then they’d need to knock out two more to get to the final four which would be contender status for this season.  I don’t see that happening.

As much as they surpassed expectations last season, it’s important to remember that a lot of their core is still young and some have very little experience.  A lot went right down the stretch last year but a step back for some of their players isn’t entirely unrealistic.  There is a core in place that eventually should be able to get them to take another step or two forward (if they can keep them all in place as the players on entry-level deals sign richer second contracts) to get to that potential contender status.  But with everything mentioned here, I have a hard time thinking that they get to that tier this season.

decaghuard: Zetterberg contract to Tampa Bay rumor: if true, would this help Tampa Bay gain cap space?

First, a bit of background on where this is coming from for those that aren’t aware of it.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman cited it on a Sportsnet 960 appearance (audio link), noting that it came from Europe and that the speculation is that Tyler Johnson would be involved.  I’ll add that a one-for-one swap of those two contracts doesn’t make any sense for Detroit so I would expect the Lightning to have to add to do that deal.

To answer your question, yes, it effectively would give them some extra cap flexibility eventually, even with adding a little over $1MM in a cap hit with Henrik Zetterberg being on the books for $6.083MM while Johnson is at $5MM.  The kicker is that they still would need to move out another contract of note to try to avoid having to into offseason LTIR.  A deal like this would put them about $3MM over the Upper Limit and that’s why Alex Killorn’s name has been out there in trade speculation for most of the offseason.  If they can move him out and get back into compliance, they can then put Zetterberg on LTIR and have up to $6.083MM to use there.  (Their LTIR space would be that amount less whatever existing cap room they have at the time; they don’t automatically get the full amount.)

That money might be enough to get short-term deals for Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak done which would solve the cap problem for this season.  Of course, moving money at this time has proven to be difficult so even with that possible road map, it’s still much easier said than done.

JustPete: The Anaheim Ducks appear to be a mess this year. Over the cap, lacking a backup goalie, need help on offense and defense, facing the upcoming expansion draft – and the bright spots they do have are young and at least a year or two away.

Is it time for a new GM to lead the team into and out of the seemingly inevitable rebuilding year(s)?

I’m not too worried about Anaheim’s salary cap situation.  Yes, they’re a bit over but they can cut down some roster spots with waiver-exempt players at the start of the season, have Anthony Stolarz as a short-term backup, and then transfer Ryan Kesler to LTIR to free up cap room to bring in a better backup.  At least, that’s the ideal plan although at this point, there aren’t a whole lot of quality backups available; re-signing Ryan Miller may actually be their best option at this point.  There should be enough money left over to add help up front or on the back end as well (but not both).

Clearly, Anaheim’s ownership is content with the state of their retooling at this point considering things are where they are now so I don’t foresee Bob Murray being let go.  But if they decide to change their mind, this season would be the time to do so.

Ryan Getzlaf and David Backes will be unrestricted free agents next offseason while Corey Perry’s buyout cap hit drops back down.  Between those three, that’s over $17MM in savings and there aren’t any pending restricted free agents that will be looking at a big raise that year either.  That will give them ample cap space at a time where few teams have cap room.  They’re well-positioned to try to address some of those issues at that time so there is light at the end of the tunnel.  Between that and their younger players continuing to progress, there’s a path towards getting back to at least playoff contention.

Eaton Harass: Which team is the best fit for Barkov once he inevitably wants out of South Florida?

I certainly don’t expect Aleksander Barkov to ask for a trade even if the Panthers have a tough season.  His contract is up in 2022 and he’ll be eligible for unrestricted free agency at that time so if he wants a change of scenery, he could very well wait to hit the open market and take his pick from what would certainly be no shortage of suitors.  Teams will be in a bit better shape cap-wise by that time and even if they’re not, adding a player of his caliber in free agency is worth the risk of going over in the summer and figuring out how to make it work later.

Of the 32 teams in the league at that time, there are only a handful that wouldn’t be a good fit.  The only ones that wouldn’t are teams that have a lot of spending down the middle with one of the top centers in the league (or two higher-priced ones on long-term contracts).

In the West, Calgary comes to mind.  Johnny Gaudreau (UFA), Mark Giordano (UFA), and Matthew Tkachuk (RFA) are among the expiring contracts at that time with Sean Monahan a year away from UFA eligibility.  Barkov would be a big upgrade down the middle and would allow them to potentially flip Monahan for a good return with Mikael Backlund remaining on the second line and Elias Lindholm staying on the wing.  The 2022 offseason figures to be when that roster undergoes that big change and adding an elite center would certainly bolster their future.

As for the East, my initial thought was Philadelphia with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier among the pending UFAs that summer but if those two re-sign, it probably takes them out of the market.  Instead, I’ll say Detroit.  By then, their young core will be more ready to make an impact and while they’ve added some decent young pivots in Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno, they won’t be top-tier centers in the NHL.  A true number one is one of the big holes they still need to fill.  Adding Barkov would certainly accomplish that.

Barkov, a high-end two-way center, is the type of player that would fit in extremely well just about anywhere though so there may not be a true ‘best’ fit but rather a whole lot of great ones.

@bk656: Who do you think is going to win the 2021 World Junior Championships (assuming there are no issues with players testing positive or anything like that)?

Well, that second part didn’t even hold up long enough for me to attempt to comment on it.  The IIHF revealed yesterday that eight players from Germany tested positive which has forced them into quarantine until the day before the tournament begins.  But with due respect to them, that shouldn’t have any sort of significant effect on the outcome of the tournament.

On paper, it’s hard to go against Canada’s roster which is loaded with a whopping 20 first-round picks among their 22 skaters.  That’s unheard of in this tournament.  There are a couple of concerns, however.  A lot of their players haven’t played in a competitive setting at all this season and their goaltending isn’t the strongest on paper.  But if their defense is as good as it is on paper, they shouldn’t be relying on their goalies to win.

I’m intrigued by Russia.  I expect Yaroslav Askarov to be the best goalie in the tournament and they have some firepower up front, led by Rodion Amirov and Vasili Podkolzin.  The fact that their players have been playing for months now might also help give them a boost early on and offset their typical slow start.

Sweden has been hit by positive tests but they still have a very strong back end.  Their attack isn’t as deep as it could have been and that could hurt them while the USA is down a couple of important forwards that they were hoping to have available.  Both of those teams are still good enough to contend even without their full complement of top players but assuming Canada isn’t hurt by being off as long as they have been, I think it’s their tournament to lose.

vincent k. mcmahon: With Alex Steen now retired, who do you see taking his spot in the lineup?

Steen’s out for the season designation (it’s technically not a retirement as he’s still going to collect his salary) opens up some LTIR possibilities.  While they’ll need to dip into that to get RFA defenseman Vince Dunn re-signed, there may still be enough left for them to look outside the roster for them to try to add another bottom-six checker.

I’d like to see them go in a different direction though and use that spot for Jordan Kyrou.  Is playing him eight to ten minutes ideal for his development?  No, but it’s eight or ten minutes more than he’d get on the taxi squad early on and the AHL season is going to be very short at best so in the long run, I think he’d be better off in the limited role that has been created by Steen’s departure.  In a perfect world, he does well enough to move up a line and push someone like Sammy Blais or Oskar Sundqvist down.

VonBrewski: The COVID budget rules the NHL right now…will we ever see teams making deals and moving money? It seems like almost every team is up against it? I would like to see some movement. Thanks and Merry Christmas.

Considering the name of this site has rumor in it, it pains me to say that I don’t expect a lot of in-season trade activity before the deadline.  Teams that don’t have space will be preserving what little bit they have in the hopes of being able to afford a cheap addition at the trade deadline and failing that, they’ll try to bank enough space to afford a better player to recall from the minors or taxi squad.  That’s about a third of the league right there.  Teams that have a little over $1MM of cap room will also be trying to bank what they have in the hopes of being able to afford an impact player at the deadline.

And for the rest, teams that have a lot of cap room aren’t going to just spend for the sake of spending.  That’s why there are still some notable unrestricted free agents out there.  A team that gets off to a good start could change their mind and try to make an early splash but that’s about the only scenario where I see an impact trade being made during the year before the trade deadline which I’m guessing will be between late March and the middle of April.

The better news is that I think there will be a notable uptick in activity which admittedly doesn’t take much considering what the last six weeks or so have been like.  There are some teams that have to clear money, free agents (unrestricted and restricted to sign), and the creation of taxi squads creates some opportunities for some smaller lateral swaps for teams to use surplus depth at one position to improve an area of weakness.  The next few weeks should be interesting on the transaction front before things get quiet beyond day-to-day shuffles between NHL teams and their taxi squads.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.