Offseason Keys: New York Islanders

The offseason is now upon us with the Stanley Cup being awarded earlier this week.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round and the first two official rounds, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the Conference Finals.  Next up is a look at the Islanders.

Even though the Islanders made it to the second round of the playoffs last season, many dismissed them as an afterthought heading into this year, putting them as a bubble team at best.  That wound up holding true as they were sixth in the Metropolitan Division before the pandemic hit (out of a spot in the postseason) but the expanded format in the Return to Play put them in.  New York certainly made the most of it as they took out Florida, Washington, and Philadelphia before falling to the eventual Stanley Cup champions in Tampa Bay.  GM Lou Lamoriello will now turn his focus towards trying to help them take that next step.  Here’s what he will need to accomplish in order to have a shot at accomplishing that.

Free Up Cap Space

Yes, this again.  It’s hardly the first time this has been a key in this series and even though we’re near the end, it won’t be the last either.  The Islanders have nearly $9MM in cap room which doesn’t seem bad but when you consider that their list of restricted free agents includes their leading scorer and two regulars on the back end (Ryan Pulock and Devon Toews) that logged over 20 minutes a game, it’s clearly not going to be enough to keep them in the fold let alone try to add to their core group.

The back end may be where Lamoriello tries to trim from.  Nick Leddy ($5.5MM) and Johnny Boychuk ($6MM) have two years left on their respective contracts and of the two, Leddy is the easier to move.  While his point production has dipped in recent years relative to how he performed upon being acquired, he’s still trusted by head coach Barry Trotz to log over 21 minutes a night.  The list of free agent defensemen that can play that many minutes is low so there should be some trade value here.  Boychuk, meanwhile, has a buyout-proof contract due to signing bonuses and front-loading and is more of a depth defender at this stage of his career.  Finding a taker without significant retention would be difficult.

Things aren’t any easier up front either.  Andrew Ladd also has a buyout-proof deal (it’d count more on the cap to buy him out over merely sending him to the minors) while Leo Komarov and Cal Clutterbuck are overpaid for their roles but won’t have much of a trade market as well.  Casey Cizikas is also overpaid for his role but on an expiring deal, there could be some interest.

It’s unlikely that Lamoriello will want to subtract from his core.  Finding a way to do that, re-sign his players, and still add to his roster is going to take a lot of creativity.

Re-Sign Barzal

Mathew Barzal has played three years in the NHL.  He has led the Islanders in scoring in all three of those seasons.  In doing so, he has replaced former captain John Tavares as their franchise player.  With his entry-level deal now concluded, he stands to land a massive raise on the $863K he earned in each of the last three years.  In a normal market, simply adding a zero to the end of that dollar amount might be a rough idea of what his next deal may cost.

Of course, this isn’t a normal market.  While Barzal has been their top point producer in his three seasons, his point total has been in the low 60s the last two seasons (the pandemic playing a part in that this year).  That should be enough to keep him out of the top end of the post-ELC price points at the very least.  It’s fair to at least wonder if it’s enough to get Lamoriello to see if Barzal is willing to take a bridge deal as well.  Doing so would lessen the amount of cap room to free up and would position the 23-year-old to take another run at restricted free agency with arbitration rights a year or two from now with the potential of the salary landscape being more favorable.

However, other teams are certainly aware of New York’s cap situation.  There’s a reason that Barzal has been a speculative offer sheet candidate for a while now.  Lamoriello has already said that the Islanders will match any offer made but if Barzal wants a long-term deal, he can try to leverage it through that route and force their hand to match.  The odds of Barzal being in an Islander uniform next season are high but the deal he gets could go a few different ways.

Add Offensive Help

This past season, the Islanders were 23rd in scoring and 24th on the power play.  The year before, when they had 101 points, they were 21st in goals scored and 29th with the man advantage.  Barzal was the lone player to reach 60 points (right on the dot) while Brock Nelson (26) and Anders Lee (20) were the only Islanders to get 20 goals.  Again, the pandemic played a role in that but even so, goal production has been an issue.  With a gritty, defense-first roster, this isn’t that surprising of a stat but for them to take that next step, they’re going to have to add.

With their cap situation and who still needs new deals, shopping at the top of the free agent market almost certainly isn’t going to happen.  Instead, they’ll have to look in the bargain bin and try to find someone that can contribute in a middle-six role.  Basically, something like they tried with Derick Brassard last summer who picked up 32 points for a $1.2MM price tag while adding eight points in 18 playoff games.

Retaining him could be an option but that would still only keep the offense from 2019-20 intact without really adding to it.  It’s unlikely that Lamoriello will be active in the early going in free agency but as the weeks progress, he would be wise to see if there’s a bargain or two to be had to give them a bit more offensive firepower.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.