Offseason Keys: Pittsburgh Penguins

As teams are eliminated from the Qualifying Round, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return, we shift our focus to the ones that have been ousted.  Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.

For the better part of the season, the Penguins looked to be a legitimate contender.  Augmented by the addition of Jason Zucker, things appeared to be looking up for them.  However, a slump just before the pandemic hit forced them out of the seeding round robin and into the Qualifying Round where they were upset by Montreal in four games.  All of a sudden, there are questions abound and GM Jim Rutherford has promised changes.  Here’s what Pittsburgh should be looking to do this offseason.

Shake Up The Forward Core

On paper, there aren’t many teams that have as strong of a forward group as Pittsburgh does.  Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin remain a strong core down the middle while Jake Guentzel is a year removed from a 76-point season and was on pace to beat that before being injured this season.  Zucker is a capable top-six forward while Bryan Rust was tied for 50th in scoring league-wide.  Veterans Patric Hornqvist and Nick Bjugstad had tough years but have been impact players in the past.  That’s enough firepower to be a contender but they have come up short the last couple of postseasons.

Rutherford tried to shake things up last year by moving Phil Kessel to Arizona and then ultimately tried to replace him with Zucker before the trade deadline, a player he had been targeting last summer.  Evidently, that wasn’t enough to move the needle.

With Rutherford saying changes were going to be made (and it’s reasonable to assume he wasn’t just talking about the three assistant coaches who won’t be returning), it seems like he’s intending to make another notable swap.  The question becomes who moves though.  The list of those that Pittsburgh would be willing to move that would bring back a notable return is rather small.  On top of that, Rob Rossi and Josh Yohe of The Athletic report (subscription required) that the team is looking to shed some payroll and start next season in the low-to-mid $70MM range.  At a time where many teams will be looking to do the same, finding new homes for some of their underachieving core players is going to be even more difficult.

Rutherford hasn’t been shy about changing things up in the past and he’ll certainly be trying to do so again.  However, he may find more difficulty trying to do so this time around.

Make A Goalie Choice

With Tristan Jarry establishing himself as a capable NHL goaltender (just months after it was believed he was available in trade talks), Pittsburgh actually had a pretty strong tandem between him and Matt Murray and they were in the bottom ten in goals allowed during the regular season.   However, both are eligible for restricted free agency with arbitration eligibility.  Even if they don’t clear out salary this offseason, it’s hard to envision them keeping both around when they already have more than $68MM in commitments to just 15 players for next season.  But who do they keep?

Murray got the nod in their series against Montreal but was eventually replaced.  That’s similar to the regular season where he was the starter before Jarry started cutting into his playing time.  With a save percentage of just .899, he shouldn’t be in line for too much of a raise on his $3.75MM qualifying offer.  Worth monitoring here is that he’s a year away from UFA eligibility so it’s possible that Murray opts to take a one-year deal (with or without arbitration).  While that would set him up to hit the open market, it would certainly negatively affect any possible trade value so it seems unlikely that Pittsburgh would let it come to that.

As for Jarry, he wound up being a huge bargain for them this season with a cap hit that was $25K below the league minimum.  It’s safe to say that he’ll be in line for a significant raise but a lack of an NHL track record (just 62 career regular season games) will limit his earnings ceiling.  Accordingly, a short-term deal would make sense but he’s only two years away from UFA eligibility himself.  Presumably, that means a one-year deal could be on the table but if not, a deal that buys an extra year or two of team control would likely be the way they’d prefer to go if they’re confident that he can be their starter moving forward.

If Rutherford has an eye on keeping both beyond next season, the expansion draft for the Kraken could help push him in the other direction.  Both Murray and Jarry would be eligible for selection and Pittsburgh could only protect one.  Losing one for nothing isn’t an ideal scenario, even if it mirrors what happened with Vegas just three years ago.

It’s shaping up to be an intriguing offseason on the goalie front with it appearing as if there will likely be some activity on the trade front at that position.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Penguins involved at some point.

Add Defensive Upgrades

Quietly, Pittsburgh has added a pair of capable young defenders in recent years that has their back end in better shape than it projected to be not long ago as John Marino and Marcus Pettersson have both filled important roles quickly.  However, the back end of their blueline has been an area of concern and is something that needs to be addressed.

Justin Schultz had a tough year and it seems like he’s unlikely to return, especially with Rutherford publicly criticizing him following their loss to Montreal.  Jack Johnson has a long list of detractors but the GM isn’t one of them.  Even without the public vote of confidence, his contract which has three more years at $3.25MM makes it likely he’s sticking around.  Meanwhile, Chad Ruhwedel and Juuso Riikola both held their own at times but are best served being in depth or reserve roles.  In the system, Pierre-Olivier Joseph has some upside but isn’t ready for NHL duty just yet.

That means that at the very least, one defensive addition is needed.  In an ideal world, a top-four option that could push one of their youngsters onto Johnson’s pairing to help balance things out would be a good pickup but there aren’t many of those available.  Instead, they may have to settle for trying to find a steadying presence for the third pairing and follow that up with an extra depth option or two as it’s hard to see them signing two new third pairing players and pushing Johnson into the reserve role.  Their ability (or lack thereof) to clear out a high-priced veteran up front will likely ultimately decide which route they wind up taking here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.