By now, most teams have a good idea as to what their plans are for next month’s trade deadline. One of the teams whose short-term future is still up in the air though is Chicago. They sit just three points out of a Wild Card spot and there are justifiable cases for them to buy, sell, or stand pat.
Case To Buy
With Brent Seabrook and Calvin de Haan both out for the season, the Blackhawks now have plenty of short-term cap space to work with via LTIR. While they’re limited to the rental market, it’s mostly players with expiring contracts that move at this time of year anyway. And with Alex DeBrincat’s cap hit going from $778K this season to $6.4MM next year, they probably wouldn’t want to add money for next year regardless of their LTIR situation.
DeBrincat isn’t the only bargain contract that’s expiring though. Rookie winger Dominik Kubalik already has 21 goals and will be looking for a big raise on his current deal worth $925K before bonuses. As he’s already 24, he also has salary arbitration eligibility.
Chicago also has a strong goaltending situation, one that’s unlikely to be the case next season. Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford are a quality tandem but both have stated that they see themselves as number ones. As a result, it’s almost a certainty that their goalie duo next year will be weaker so if you’re going to make a run, now would seem to be the time.
They’re only three points out despite the injuries on the back end. Adding an impact blueliner alone could be enough to close the gap. When you’re that close, it’s hard not to go for it.
Case To Sell
The goalie situation around the league has been a bit of an odd one this season with several veterans that were expected to lead the way struggling. As a result, the potential is there to have a rental goalie (Lehner or Crawford) go for a better return than what rental netminders have gone for in recent years as the market should be stronger. If they know which one they intend to keep already, GM Stan Bowman could get the contract extension done now and flip the other for a reasonable price. (It’s worth noting that Crawford has a ten-team no-trade clause that could come into play at some point.)
It’s also unlikely that they’ll be able to afford defenseman Erik Gustafsson over the offseason. While his numbers are down this season (not unexpected considering he came out of nowhere with a 60-point season in 2018-19), he’s still one of the better rental blueliners that could move over the next month. That should have Chicago well-positioned to cash in and would allow them to get a longer look at Slater Koekkoek and Dennis Gilbert to see if one of them is ready to seize a full-time role for next season and beyond.
As is always the case with bubble teams, there’s also the matter of how far they’re going to go if they make it. While upsets are certainly possible (look no further than one of their division rivals last season), they’re not probable. If the likely end result is a quick postseason exit, is that really better than adding a few more draft picks and prospects to the cupboard?
Case To Stand Pat
Just look at the standings. They’re three points behind Vegas with a game in hand so the gap could be as low as one. If Bowman wants to send the message that he believes in this group, just maintaining the status quo could be the way to go. The platooning of Lehner and Crawford should pay dividends down the stretch as they’ll be more rested than most of their counterparts at the other end of the ice. If the goalie market isn’t as strong as I think it could be, the more prudent move may be to keep both netminders over selling one for a mid-to-late-round pick.
It’s also possible that Andrew Shaw returns from his concussion at some point between now and the end of the year. While he wasn’t as productive as he was last season with Montreal before sustaining the injury, his physical style of play should come in handy as the pressure picks up down the stretch. Depending on when he returns, he could be worth a point or two in the standings and that could be enough to leapfrog whoever the fifth-place team in the Pacific Division is at the end of the year.
While Chicago has a reputation of being an older team, that isn’t the case this year. They have seven players on entry-level contracts at the moment (including the currently-injured Dylan Strome). Playing meaningful games down the stretch can certainly help from a player development standpoint. However, with guys like DeBrincat and Kubalik looking at raises for next season, the prospect of a potential bonus overage penalty lingers so the safest play may just be to stay the course and hope that the current roster is good enough to stay in the race.
Which direction do you think the Blackhawks should go? Have your say by voting in the poll below.
(Mobile users, click here to vote.)
joparx
I think they should really try to buy and sell, Lehner has to be the goalie they extend, crawford is 35 and basically didn’t play the 2 years before this with head injuries, if they can trade Gus and get a more defensive dman they still may be able to get into the wild card, I don’t believe this team is goin to make a run at the cup but I think it’s foolish not to go for a playoff spot while it’s in reach, if they get a crazy offer for Saad though that should probably change things
Sheep8
Well said! Would love to see
Bowman try to pull this off!
brucenewton
That blue line and forward depth is going nowhere in the playoffs. If, big if, they make it.
But Bowman will probably buy one last time before he’s fired.
Vin Scully
They should try to improve and make the playoffs. Most of the teams in the west are mediocre. Arizona, Edmonton, Vancouver, Calgary and Vegas are all beatable.
aias
Trade Crawford. His best days are behind him. Lehner has to be the guy. You can’t platoon goalies in the playoffs!