Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.
After the Carolina Hurricanes and Brock McGinn settled this morning, just before their scheduled hearing, the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp became next in line. Ironically, he and McGinn are very similar players with very similar filing number midpoints in their cases. The Jets and Copp are farther apart than were the ’Canes and McGinn, and Copp’s agent has been open about intending to settle that dispute through arbitration, so a hearing is more likely than not. A Copp hearing would be very similar to what a McGinn hearing would have been, including many shared comparable players, now including McGinn. Here is a closer look at his case:
The Case of Andrew Copp
Career Statistics: 293 games played, 36 goals, 48 assists, 84 points, +55 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games played, 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points, +20 rating
Filing Numbers: Copp – One year, $2.9MM, Jets – Two years, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.2MM)
Player Side
Themes:
- Top-Nine Forward: among top nine Jets forwards in goals per game, assists per game, points per game, and total points in platform season; consistent improvement in scoring numbers every season
- Key Defensive Player: led Jets forwards in plus/minus by wide margin; regular shorthanded role; strong face-off numbers
Potential Comparable Players:
Brock McGinn (2019)
Career Statistics: 240 games played, 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points, -27 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points, +10 rating
Salary: $2.1MM
- Player’s argument: very similar career offensive totals; Copp had better per game offensive numbers in the platform season; Copp has more experience; Copp has far superior career plus/minus; Copp is a center, valued more than winger
- Team’s counter: McGinn has better career per-game scoring; McGinn has better defensive numbers – hits, blocked shots, takeaways, shorthanded ATOI
Johan Larsson (2019)
Career Statistics: 331 games played, 32 goals, 47 assists, 79 points, -49 rating
Platform Statistics: 73 games played, 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points, -8 rating
Salary: $1.55MM
- Player’s argument: Copp has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Copp has better career offensive totals and per game numbers; Copp has far better career and platform plus/minus
- Team’s counter: Larsson’s salary is considerably below midpoint; Larsson has more experience; Larsson has better defensive numbers – hits, blocked shots, takeaways, shorthanded ATOI
Team Side
Themes:
- Not a Reliable Player: two seasons out of four with less than 70 games played due to injury; drop-off in ATOI in platform season; no role on power play, second penalty kill unit; scores in bunches, suffers droughts
- Not a Key Defensive Player: outside top five Jets forwards in hits, blocked shots, and takeaways; fourth in total face-offs taken; one of seven Jets forwards with at least one minute of shorthanded ATOI; prone to turnovers
Potential Comparable Players:
Joel Armia (2019)
Career Statistics: 237 games, 39 goals, 42 assists, 81 points, -3 rating
Platform Statistics: 57 games, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, even rating
Salary: $2.6MM
- Team’s argument: Armia has far better career per game offensive numbers; Armia had far better per game offensive numbers in platform; similar defensive numbers; Armia creates turnovers, Copp prone to turning puck over
- Player’s counter: Copp has more experience and more consistent games played; Copp is a center, valued more than a winger
Scott Laughton (2019)
Career Statistics: 272 games played, 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points, -24 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points, -11 rating
Salary: $2.3MM
- Team’s argument: Laughton had better platform season; Laughton is better defensive player – more face-offs, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI ; Laughton has been more consistent contributor
- Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers; Copp is superior goal scorer; Copp has far superior plus/minus; very similar age and size; same position and shot side
Prediction
This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, this case is dead even. As similar as Copp is to McGinn, his side should be able to make a solid case that he is the better offensive player. In fact, Copp and Laughton are extremely similar offensive players and both sides could wind up using Laughton as a comparable player. That situation would greatly benefit Copp, as Laughton’s $2.3MM salary is on his side of the midpoint and there’s a fair case to be made that Copp is better goal-scorer than Laughton. Where Copp’s side could fall short is in emphasizing his defensive prowess, as he falls short against most comparable and several teammates. It’s hard to see Copp far surpassing Laughton or falling well below McGinn, so expect him to land a deal in the $2-2.35MM range.