The Calgary Flames were unable to slow down the Colorado Avalanche last night, and it meant the end of their 2018-19 season. The team with the best record in the Western Conference were knocked out of the playoffs in five games, joining the Tampa Bay Lightning as top seeds knocked out in the first round. Plenty of the blame for the series loss can be laid at the feet of the forwards, who were able to record just eight goals in five games. Johnny Gaudreau’s one-assist performance may be the talk of the town, but there is another huge situation to deal with for the Flames this offseason.
That would be James Neal, who was a healthy scratch in game five after failing to register a point in the first four while being a -3. Neal had an incredibly bad debut season in Calgary, registering just seven goals and 19 points through 63 regular season games. The amazing part is that coming into this year Neal was one of the few NHLers in history to record at least 20 goals through each of his first ten seasons, a stretch that showed off his incredible consistency. No, he likely wasn’t going to repeat the 40-goal campaign he had in Pittsburgh in 2011-12, but one could reasonably expect 20 goals and 40 points from the veteran forward.
Instead, he dealt with that failure that had him out of the lineup for a game in which Calgary faced elimination.
Now the decision is a difficult one for the Calgary management group. Less than a year ago they committed $28.75MM to Neal over a five-year term, a contract that is evenly distributed throughout and includes no signing bonuses. Because of that structure, the notion of a buyout must immediately comes to the forefront of any discussion of Neal’s future. If the Flames were to buy him out it would cost them more than $15MM in actual dollars, but impose just a $1.92MM cap hit on their books. Unfortunately that cap hit would extend through the 2026-27 season, making him quite an expensive mistake for one failure-riddled season.
There is also the trade route, given that the contract includes no protection in that manner. But who would be willing to take on such a large salary for a player who struggled so mightily this season? If the team were willing to retain some salary perhaps, but at that point a buyout may seem more reasonable given that they wouldn’t be expecting much in return.
Lastly, there is the idea of hoping he can turn it around. Quite notably, Neal has been one of the most consistent shooters in the league over his decade prior to joining the Flames. His shooting percentage had never gone above 14.0% in a single (non-lockout-shortened) season, while never dropping below 10.4%. This season, that number dropped dramatically to just 5.0%. Whether that was a symptom of a declining game, weaker linemates or different deployment, there is a reasonable argument to be made that with a little more luck things might have not looked so rough.
The Flames meanwhile have some financial troubles heading their way given the long-term commitments they’ve handed out. The team already has nearly $70MM penciled in for next season, even without the big raise that is coming for Matthew Tkachuk and new contracts for others like Sam Bennett and Andrew Mangiapane. They also don’t currently have a goaltender lined up, as both Mike Smith (UFA) and David Rittich (RFA) are heading to free agency. Getting out from Neal’s contract somehow might be a necessary move for GM Brad Treliving this summer.
So what should Calgary do? Do they hold on and hope that 2018-19 was a fluke, and that Neal will be back stronger than ever next season to help them get back to the playoffs? Or do they move on through a buyout or trade in order to open up some cap space, and hope that he doesn’t find his goal scoring touch somewhere else? Vote below and leave your thoughts in the comments.
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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
I feel like they’ll be attaching one of their young defencemen with him and eating a bit of money in order to bring back something of value.
There was a poll last summer “which free agent signing has the biggest bust potential” and Neal was the overwhelming choice. Guess many people saw it except Calgarys front office
Trade him to the Kings for their #1 pick. Seems like something they’d entertain.
@David Dean Lombardi is there to do that anymore haha
You would have to package a young defensemen and eat some money just to trade him, you would get very little value back.
Neal is a bit of an idiot (and reportedly a total jerk) but he was a top 6 player on consecutive teams (NSH then VGK) that made it to the Stanley Cup Final. Calgary signing him to play with Monahan and Gaudreau made a ton of sense.
THEN they made the trade with Carolina and got Lindholm. This moved Neal from the top 6 to the bottom 6 since the Flames kept their long standing second line intact.
So, it was a defensible signing that was to look terrible by a great trade.
the only way they can move him is with young player or for equally bad contract. clue scores goals but neither Nashville and vegas really tried to keep him. probably on first seattle team with seabrook , lucic etc. lol
Unless they need to trade him for cap space, they would be better off holding onto him for another year and hoping he returns some value back. His shooting percentage was abysmal and a positive regression to the norm wouldn’t be a complete pipe dream. They would still likely have to attach something to him just to get out from his contract in a year, but the amount of money needed to be eaten (or the players/picks attached with him) might not be as high priced as they would be if they traded him this offseason.
might as well keep him for at least a year with all the money he has attached to him.
@david722: The Kings have no use for him – he’s not old enough to be a Black & Silver traffic cone on skates, yet. See: Kovalchuk, Ilya, et al. Funny, though, link to prohockeyrumors.com just screams “Bye, all, I’m off to Robidas Island! Thanks for all the $$$!” And, as for Seattle, maybe they will name the team the Seattle Turnstiles, starring castoffs from about 31 neighboring NHL teams.
I agree with the Flames attaching another player probably as mentioned a defenseman in trade , and salary aspects , to bring in a young forward that has an upside and that may help the Flames, also he faced injuries on few occasions this season, so that hurt his ability to produce as had in recent years, even as a long time veteran with playoff experience,
I hate nitpicking on grammar, but the title should probably read “What DO The Flames…”
Neal and a 2nd to Kings for Phaneuf. Calgary retains some salary to balance cap hit. Calgary then buys out Phaneuf.
Good luck with that one Jd his value is super low. Maybe your sens will take him for a bag of pucks and picture of you with Sparty on the golf course.