PHR Mailbag: Trade Talk, Long-Term Contract, Expansion

Our latest mailbag before the trade deadline takes a look at some of the top rental players still available, what a trio of Atlantic Division teams will be looking to do, a discussion on the emphasis on long-term contracts and whether that trend may soon be changing, and much more.  These are the non-Metropolitan Division questions from our last call for mailbag questions two weeks ago.  For the Metro mailbag, click here.

ThePriceWasRight: Rumors are if he makes it, Calgary and Winnipeg interested in Stone. If either makes this trade are they the cream of the Western crop or does Calgary still have to address its goaltending?

I think Winnipeg is the top team in the West right now so adding Mark Stone would make them the top gun by that much more.  They have several strong wingers and adding a top liner like Stone would make an already potent offense that much stronger.

As for Calgary, getting Stone probably wouldn’t be enough to unseat Winnipeg as their goaltending is still somewhat shaky.  Unfortunately for them, that’s going to be tough to address.  I don’t think Columbus will move Sergei Bobrovsky and while Jimmy Howard would help, he’s not a high-end starter.  No one they’re going to get will be either which makes it hard to call them the top contender.

That said, I don’t think it should stop them from pursuing Stone.  Their attack is very top-heavy and adding Stone would give them a second line that’s capable of lighting the lamp with a lot more regularity.  If you can’t win the traditional way with good goaltending, loading up offensively and trying to win some high-scoring games isn’t a bad way to go.

@Hockeyprospect5: Who should the Flames try to acquire?

Though they won’t be able to land a top-notch starting goaltender, I still think they should look at adding some depth.  I like Keith Kinkaid for them.  I know he isn’t having a great year but he showed last season that he’s capable of getting hot and going on a big run.  That’s all they really need for the time being, someone that can either push one of David Rittich or Mike Smith or provide a short-term boost if he gets on a roll at the right time.

I can see them looking for winger depth as well.  I’d be a little surprised if Stone went there but I could see someone like Gustav Nyquist being of interest to them.  He may not be able to carry a line like Stone but he’s a good two-way player and could still log a lot of minutes for them.  (He’ll also cost a lot less than Stone will.)  They’ve been linked to Mats Zuccarello as of late as well and he’d be a nice addition for their second line.

pitmanrich: Why are top players so keen on 7/8 year contracts? Salary cap is unlikely to go down significantly and top money will always be there for quality players like Karlsson and Stone unless dramatic drop off in production surely no-trade clauses on 3/4 year deal would be better for them plus if the team goes bad quick like the Rangers did easier for them to leave for another contender.

Security means a lot and the players signing the max-term contracts are usually getting significant no-trade/no-move protection anyway (at least in their UFA-eligible years).  If a player is hitting the open market at 27, a max-term deal is going to take them pretty close to retirement.  Waiting three or four years and trying again is going to probably yield a lesser contract for most players.

Let’s look at Karlsson.  Previous speculation was that it’s going to take Drew Doughty money (eight years, $11MM per) to get a deal done.  Let’s give that to Karlsson but on a four-year pact.  That will allow him to hit unrestricted free agency again in July of 2023.  However, he’ll be 33 at that time with four more years of mileage on him.  By then, he probably won’t be as much of an elite skater either.  Even with a higher Upper Limit and a new CBA in place, I’m not sure he’d match $11MM on another deal let alone beat it.  The shorter-term deal probably hurts him.  Mark Stone is a couple of years younger so he’d have more of a chance but assuming he winds up around $9.5MM or more on his next deal, could he beat that four years from now?  I wouldn’t bet on it.

Now, when it comes to RFA players, you’re onto something.  Auston Matthews could have pushed for Connor McDavid money (or more) on an eight-year deal but took five years instead (and still wound up with a really high price tag).  He’ll be hitting unrestricted free agency in the prime of his career and as long as he stays healthy, it’s a fairly safe bet that he’ll be able to beat whatever the AAV could have been on an eight-year post-RFA deal so the shorter-term strategy will work for him.  I expect some of the other top RFAs this summer will pursue a similar route with that in mind and if teams need to compromise on the term to get an AAV more to their liking, they’ll do it.

The shift towards shorter deals is coming but it probably wouldn’t be with the players that are entering unrestricted free agency.  Those players will be opting for the security of one last big payday.

ThePriceWasRight: What do you see happening with Erik Karlsson? Sharks can now start negotiating but may want to focus on the season.

While there hasn’t been any information about any talks being held, I’m pretty sure that the Sharks have a pretty good idea of what it’s going to take to lock him up.  It’s likely that GM Doug Wilson has spoken with Craig Oster, Karlsson’s agent, to determine what the asking price is and the willingness on their end to sign an extension.

In the short-term, whatever that answer may be doesn’t really change much.  Even if for some reason Karlsson decided he wants to go to free agency, San Jose isn’t going to trade him.  They’re all in for this season and given what they paid for him, they’ll stick it out.  (Considering the clause that says they owe Ottawa another first rounder if he’s dealt back in the East, they wouldn’t run the risk of moving him and having that team flip him back in the East either.)

If I had to guess, I’d speculate that they probably are already pretty close to a contract if one isn’t already in place.  Considering he can’t sign an eight-year deal until after the trade deadline passes on Monday, they’ll wait until then at the very least but I think he’ll be staying in San Jose for a long time.

tigers22: Nyquist to Winnipeg for a 1st, Glendening to Toronto for a 3rd, and Howard to San Jose for a future 2nd. If Holland wants to re-sign Nyquist and Howard in the off-season isn’t this the best thing for the Red Wings now and in the future?

Let’s address the second part first.  Yes, the trade and sign option on paper is, at least in theory, the best-case scenario for Detroit.  They get some assets for the players and then get the players back.  It’s the best of both worlds.  However, it’s something that rarely happens.  (Montreal did it with Tomas Plekanec recently but he’s the exception, not the norm.)  If the Red Wings truly want to re-sign them, is the potential trade return worth the risk of not being able to bring them back if they decide they prefer their new team or to test the market?  Most GMs don’t think so which is why they often lock up their guys if they can.

As for the trade ideas, I don’t think Nyquist gets a first-rounder.  There aren’t many available and as well as he has played this season, there are better players than him available that will likely get those top picks.  Glendening to Toronto makes some sense but given the cap situation that the Maple Leafs have, Detroit would either need to retain some salary or take a player back.  Howard to San Jose is a fit on paper but I expect the Sharks will ultimately target a cheaper goaltender (think Ryan Miller or Kinkaid).

goosr: What do you think the Habs will do as the deadline is almost near.

Not much.  I could see winger Charles Hudon moved for a rental player that’s a better fit on their fourth line.  While Hudon is a restricted free agent with a $715K qualifying offer, he’s a non-tender candidate because of his arbitration eligibility and his 30-point 2017-18 campaign so moving him for a player they likely won’t end up keeping beyond this season isn’t much of a risk.

Beyond that, I think they’ll look to add more defensive depth if they can pay a price comparable to what they did for Nate Thompson (yes, he’s a center but the price was sliding down a few spots in the draft, not dealing a pick outright).  GM Marc Bergevin has said he’s willing to take on a bad contract for other assets but that deal may be more of an option in the summer when time is really of the essence for teams needing to free up room.

Puckhead83: Do you have a dark horse trade candidate in your mind that no one is talking about?

Defenseman Jonas Brodin from Minnesota.  Charlie Coyle was getting all of the attention before being dealt to Boston.  Now Eric Staal is getting the attention as a pending unrestricted free agent.  Nino Niederreiter has already been dealt and GM Paul Fenton has been given the green light to really shake things up even if it comes at the expense of a playoff spot.

Brodin’s only 25 and is signed for two more years after this one on a pretty good contract with a $4.167MM AAV.  We saw what Jake Muzzin (who has a similar role and AAV but only for one more year) received, a first-round pick plus a pair of prospects.  It’s quite plausible to think that Brodin would fetch an even more substantial return.

There are quite a few mid-pack teams who have said they’re not interested in rentals but would make ‘hockey moves’ for the right price.  Between that and the contenders that would undoubtedly love to add Brodin to their top four, the market for him would be substantial right now.  He’s not getting much attention but if a deal gets done, it would be one of the biggest moves over the next 48 hours or so.

ThePriceWasRight: When do you think teams will actually start making trades with the expansion draft in mind?

The Expansion Draft isn’t until June of 2021 so it’ll be a while yet before trades are made with that in mind.  I could see a team or two trying to shuffle something close to the start of 2020-21 but most of the moves won’t be made until that trade deadline (late February) or the days leading up to the draft.

To be honest, I don’t think we’ll see the type of movement we did with Vegas.  We’ll be looking at a new CBA which could have redefined Hockey Related Revenues (HRR) and/or a compliance buyout as we’ve seen in the past.  As a result, there probably won’t be as many teams looking to offload bad contracts that will be wanting that player to be taken.  I expect more teams will simply just accept that they’re going to lose a player for free instead of trying to shuffle around their roster and lose additional assets in the process.

Some teams may look to swap a forward for a defenseman based on how their protection lists look but there weren’t a lot of those trades before the Vegas draft and there probably won’t be here either.  The Golden Knights did well to take advantage of some teams and really dictate the market.  Those teams will have learned their lesson this time around, much to the chagrin of Seattle.

keel863: When is Sweeney going to pull the trigger on a smart trade? His track record isn’t exactly spot on. They need a top-6 forward. I like Stone, not really Simmonds….who do you think makes the best sense?

The Coyle pickup could wind up being their top-six addition barring another move in the next 48 hours.  While I like Coyle (and I don’t think they paid too high of a price for him), I’d be disappointed from Boston’s perspective if that’s their big addition in the end.

There are some wingers that could slot in quite nicely on the second line, allowing Coyle to slot in down the middle.  Nyquist from Detroit would be a good fit and would really take some pressure off their top line while I think Zuccarello would slot in nicely on their second line as well.  They’re likely seeing Toronto in the first round and his skill and speed match up well against the Maple Leafs.

I like those two for Boston more than Wayne Simmonds who has been a speculative target for a while.  While grit in the postseason is important, so too is speed, especially against Toronto.  Simmonds has the former but not the latter which means his usefulness would be limited.  If they can land one of Zuccarello or Nyquist for a reasonable price, it will be a pretty good deadline for GM Don Sweeney.

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