PHR Mailbag: Sellers, Bruins, Hurricanes, Fleury, World Juniors, Flyers

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Blackhawks’ struggles, Boston’s trade chips, what the Senators should do in the coming months, what Carolina should be targeting in a trade, Marc-Andre Fleury’s workload, trade speculation involving Alex Pietrangelo and Vladimir Tarasenko, the World Juniors, and Philadelphia’s plans under Chuck Fletcher.

shelteredsoxfan: How much worse do you think it gets for the Blackhawks before it gets better?

@Adam407: It seems like a given that the Blackhawks will be sellers at the deadline and maybe before that. Any idea who they might be able to move and what they could expect to receive in return?

I have a hunch that Stan Bowman hasn’t given up on this core just yet.  They’re going to have some money to spend and there has already been one report (from John Dietz of the Daily Herald) that they’re planning to target winger Artemi Panarin this summer and march themselves back into cap purgatory in the process.  If they do indeed do that, they won’t be anywhere near as bad next season so the short-term pain won’t be prolonged too badly.  Even if they do that though, their days of contention appear to be numbered but a big splash like that could get them a lot closer to the playoff picture.

With that in mind, shipping out expiring contracts will be the name of the game once again.  Marcus Kruger could help someone as a fourth line center and could fetch a mid-round pick.  If someone wants Brandon Davidson for defensive depth, he could probably yield a late pick.  Depending on how Cam Ward plays these next few months, perhaps a contender may want him for injury insurance.

Beyond that, moving out Artem Anisimov and the final two years of his deal will probably be at the top of the priority list.  Doing so would ideally free up some extra room to take that run at Panarin (or another impact player) and emphasize their commitment to Dylan Strome as their number two center.  His value isn’t what it once was but Anisimov is still a capable middle-six player and should be worth a roster player (to help offset some money) plus a good prospect or a second-rounder.

case7187: Why are the B’s finding it so hard to trade for help? They have a lot of good quality youngsters but there seems to be nothing out there.

I don’t think it’s a case of there being nothing out there but rather GM Don Sweeney (rightfully) being very careful.  There’s a reason young roster players aren’t dealt very often.  They’re cap-efficient and there are often differences as to what the trading and acquiring team see his upside as.  Unless the internal valuation on both sides line up, a move isn’t going to happen.

Let’s take Danton Heinen for an example.  What is his level of upside?  Is he a legitimate top-six forward like the one that put up 38 points in the first 48 games last season?  Or is he the player that has notched just 18 points in 67 games (playoffs included) since then?  The Bruins are going to try to sell him as the former but teams are understandably going to be hesitant given his struggles since February.  I doubt there are other teams that value him as highly as Boston goes which makes a trade trickier.

The questions are similar with the likes of Anders Bjork, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, and Ryan Donato.  All three have shown legitimate NHL upside.  They’ve also shown that there is a chance that they don’t live up to that upside as their play has been inconsistent so far.  Sweeney’s valuation of his own players is probably higher than those of his managerial counterparts so until something changes (one of those players steps up, the team lowers their expectations on one of them, or injuries force someone’s hand), it’s probably going to take some time for a trade to get done.

ThePriceWasRight: Just when you think things can’t get worse for the Sens, Duchene gets hurt.

Play GM, what should this team be doing in the next 2-3 months? Plenty of moveable pieces, no clear indication or direction what they plan to do (though they’ve clearly sold low on every player they’ve traded since Brassard).

Sell, sell, sell.  Ottawa has done well to hang around the postseason hunt so far but this is not a team that’s going to be a contender.  Their defense corps is a patchwork group at best and I have doubts that they’ll be able to get Matt Duchene and Mark Stone locked up long-term.  They might get one but it’s hard to see them doing what it takes (which would likely include significant signing bonuses) to get both signed.

As you note, they have quite a few players that could be dealt with some value – on top of those two, Ryan Dzingel is an expiring deal and it will be easier to move Zack Smith closer to the deadline than it was when they waived him in the preseason.  If Jean-Gabriel Pageau plays well upon returning, there will be a market for him as well.

The Sens have an opportunity to really restock their prospect and pick cupboards which is even more important considering they don’t have their first-round pick this season.  Even if they hang around a Wild Card spot for a couple more months, the better move long-term is to sell.

acarneglia: With the Hurricanes looking for a top 6 forward, where do they look? Does a guy like Kevin Hayes or Mats Zuccarello make sense from the division rival Rangers? Do they go for an impending FA like Matt Duchene? Do they target a Kings player?

While Hayes and Zuccarello make some sense and would certainly help, I’m not sure a pending unrestricted free agent is the way to go.  I think Carolina is more than one notable forward away from really getting back into the playoff picture and the odds of them getting multiple impact players is probably low.  I think their goal should be to add a younger (or at least someone under team control for a couple of years) option that can be part of the core alongside the likes of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas, and others over picking up some short-term help in a rental.

In a previous mailbag, I suggested Tyler Toffoli as a possible fallback option for Carolina if they weren’t able to land William Nylander.  He’s a little older (26) than I think they’d like but he’s signed through next season and while he’s struggling this year, he does have a track record of production.  Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic brought up Kasperi Kapanen as someone they’ve discussed internally and that’s more of the type of forward I think they should be trying to get even though the acquisition cost will certainly be higher.

vegasloveforthebills: Fleury is currently on pace for 70 games played. Do you think it’s at least partly because Vegas has lost confidence in Subban, and if so, are they in on a Howard or Anderson?

I don’t think it’s partly because of that reason – I believe it’s primarily because of that reason.  Asking any goalie to play upwards of 70 games is a tough ask nowadays.  Asking a 34-year-old with a substantial injury history isn’t something a team does willingly.  They’re doing it because they feel they have to.

With that in mind, it wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprising to see them try to upgrade on Malcolm Subban between now and the trade deadline.  (I also thought they would have done that last year, for what it’s worth.)  I don’t think Craig Anderson is an ideal target since he has another year left on his deal at $4.75MM and that’s too much for a backup.  Howard could be a target but the asking price appears to be quite high and there is believed to be mutual interest in an extension.

A goalie that I could see being on their radar is Carolina’s Petr Mrazek.  I can’t see them willingly carrying all three goalies the rest of the way and he’s on a manageable $1.5MM deal this season.  He’d represent an upgrade on Subban and if he fared well, he’s young enough (he’ll turn 27 just before the deadline) that he could be a realistic option for them next year and beyond as well.

Paul Heyman: What could the Blues get in a potential Tarasenko or Pietrangelo trade?

JKirchofer: Does Armstrong clean house in St. Louis? What would it take to pry away a Pietrangelo or Tarasenko?

binarydaddy: Would the Leafs/Dubas be willing to part with Willie now, along with Gardiner, to facilitate a massive trade to get Pietrangelo? Their D would be stellar and it’s clear they don’t need Nylander as long as Matthews stays healthy!

I sense a theme developing with Alex Pietrangelo here…  I’ll lump these three together as they all pertain to him.

Even if St. Louis sells, there’s no guarantee that Pietrangelo would be on the move.  Considering he has another year left on his deal after this one, there may be a bigger market for him near the draft when teams have a lot more payroll flexibility than they do in-season.  At either rate, they should be able to elicit a huge return – not quite at the Erik Karlsson level but still substantial.  A couple of roster players (including a defenseman) would likely be involved for money matching purposes while a first-round pick would assuredly be in there as well.  Tack on a top prospect and one or two other secondary pieces (picks or prospects) and that’s the rough framework of a return I’d be seeking if I was Doug Armstrong.

The question that they will need to answer before entertaining any Pietrangelo trade talk is how much they want to change the roster.  On paper, they should not be anywhere near as bad as they currently are.  Youngsters like Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou will get better and emerge as key contributors in the not-too-distant future.  Do they really need to blow it up?  I don’t think they do and I don’t think they will.

Notwithstanding the fact that St. Louis doesn’t have the payroll space to do that Toronto proposal thanks to Nylander’s inflated cap hit this year relative to his AAV, I don’t think the Maple Leafs do that deal.  If they decide to move Nylander at some point (likely when his lower cap hit kicks in), they’d be wise to target a cost-controllable player that can help enable them to keep more of their secondary pieces intact once Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner re-sign.  Pietrangelo doesn’t do that as he’s a year away from having a higher cap hit than Nylander.

Now, let’s shift gears to Tarasenko.  I think a reasonable starting point is a deal similar to the one Montreal and Vegas made with Max Pacioretty – a top prospect, an established top-six forward, and a second-round pick.  Given that Tarasenko is a bit better of a goal scorer and has some cost certainty on his deal ($7.5MM for four more years after this one), Armstrong can ask for more on top of that.  He could make a case that the draft pick should be a first-rounder or another good prospect/pick gets added to that package.  However, like Pietrangelo, a deal would probably be easier to do in the offseason than it would be over the next couple of months.

sixfootnineballerina: What should I look forward to in the World Junior Championships later this month? Also, can you think of any teams that will either go through a major surge or decline in the second half of the season?

When it comes to the World Juniors, there are three things to typically look forward to in a general sense.  It’s an opportunity to get a look at some of the top draft-eligible prospects (including Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kahko) in a high-level tournament.  It’s also a chance to see plenty of NHL-drafted players and assess whether they’ve boosted their stock or if it has dropped which is always fun for trade speculation once the trade activity picks up in the New Year.  I’m intrigued to get a look at Detroit prospect Filip Zadina in particular (if healthy – he was injured this weekend) to see how his development is coming along after spending the season so far in the AHL.  Most of all, these teams aren’t all systems-driven.  It’s up-tempo hockey that isn’t over coached.  That can result in some unpredictable and entertaining hockey no matter which country (and NHL team) you’re cheering for.

As for the second part of your question, it’s hard to envision Pittsburgh missing the postseason so they’re an easy pick to have a surge in the second half.  I think Dallas is due for a boost as well once some of their secondary forwards start producing like they’re capable of.  On the flip side, I don’t trust Buffalo just yet.  I think it’s a matter of time before Boston leapfrogs them for the final divisional seed and while they have enough depth to stay in a battle for a playoff spot, I can’t see them hanging on.  Out West, I think Anaheim’s scoring struggles will eventually be their downfall and that will result in them dropping several spots in the very tight Pacific Division.

ThePriceWasRight: What do you see Chuck Fletcher focusing on now that he is in charge? Does he try and trade one of his young forwards for some D help? Any chance we see Carter Hart before the end of the season? What happens to Wayne Simmonds and is he not the perfect fit for a Bruins org. needing some offensive help with D to spare (when healthy)?

In the immediate term, goaltending help first and foremost.  If the Flyers are going to make the playoffs, they need some more consistency between the pipes.  Hart isn’t ready to provide that so he shouldn’t be an option aside from maybe a few games at the end of the year if they’re out of contention by then.  I had mentioned earlier that Anderson from Ottawa may not be a great fit for Vegas but he’d make more sense for the Flyers who have the payroll flexibility to take on that second year as well.

I don’t think he’ll look to do too much with that back end.  The Flyers have a good collection of young defenders in the system and while they may try to shore up their depth, I can’t see them moving one of their younger forwards to do so.

As for Simmonds, he’s a perfect fit for a lot of teams that are looking to add some grit and scoring touch.  It was looking like he wasn’t going to be extended with Ron Hextall at the helm so in the short-term, Fletcher will probably circle back to see if there’s common ground on a new contract.  Failing that, unless they work their way back into the playoff picture, I can’t see them risking losing him for nothing so a trade would be likely if it gets to that point.  Given that there appears to be more of a win-now (or soon) type of mentality, the difference between this sell move and ones from other selling teams is that the Flyers may place more emphasis on someone that can help right away over the prospect or draft pick that is years away.  Given Boston’s group of younger assets, that could work in their favor if Simmonds is indeed someone that they target.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.