PHR Mailbag: Quenneville, Bruins, Nylander, Canucks

This edition of the mailbag looks at potential landing spots for Joel Quenneville, possible trade targets for Boston, more discussion about William Nylander, and Vancouver’s strong start to the season.

pawtucket: Which team does Mr. Quenneville coach next and what are the percentages for each. Here are your options:

LA Kings
St. Louis Blues
Philadelphia Flyers
Detroit Red Wings

First off, add me to the list of people who think Chicago made a mistake here.  The Blackhawks, as currently constructed, aren’t a contending team like they once were.  They also have something they haven’t had much of in recent years – cap space.  I believe the proper move would have been to make an addition to the roster to see if that got them going.  If not, then this decision would have made more sense.  I get that Jeremy Colliton is a promising young coach but he was already in their system; this option was available to them six weeks from now if they opted to do a trade before the firing.

Of the teams you list, the only one I’d give reasonably-high odds to is St. Louis.  Mike Yeo’s job appears to be in jeopardy and if Quenneville wants to jump back in as soon as possible, this could be a spot that is made available in the next little while.  Accordingly, I’ll give them the top percentage at 40%.  I suspect Plan A for the Kings is that Willie Desjardins does well enough to earn the full-time job and that Marco Sturm would be Plan B.  This one won’t be an option until the summer at the earliest so I couldn’t go more than 5% here.  I don’t think the Flyers are planning on making a coaching change anytime soon and if they did, Ron Hextall strikes me as the type of GM who wouldn’t be coveting an old-school type like Quenneville so I can’t go higher than 5% here either.  As a rebuilding team, it wouldn’t make sense for Detroit to want Quenneville and his high price tag while it wouldn’t make sense for him to go there either so I’ll put that one at 0%.  (If Jeff Blashill is let go in-season, they have a logical interim replacement in Dan Bylsma already.)

I’m going to toss a few other teams out there.  Anaheim is off to a slow start and while they’ve been hit hard with injuries, I could see them making a move over the next couple of months.  They’re in win-now mode so a veteran like Quenneville would be the type of coach they’re looking for so I’ll peg them at 25%.  While Edmonton has rebounded from a slow start, another sizable losing streak would have Todd McLellan’s job in question again.  They’re another team in win-now mode so I’ll put them at 20%.  I’d also give Pittsburgh low odds here.  Jim Rutherford isn’t happy with how things are going and has limited cap space to address it.  If he can’t change the team, might he change the coach?  I’ll put them at the remaining 5%.

case7187: We hear that the B’s are looking to add to the teams’ 3rd line who could be a realistic option?

In particular, Boston’s preference is to add some help down the middle to help cover the void created when they opted not to re-sign Riley Nash in free agency.  With the young players they have on the horizon, I suspect their preference would be a short-term contract if they’re looking to add a veteran.

Kevin Hayes of the Rangers is going to be a highly sought after center between now and the trade deadline but the asking price will be steep.  I also suspect New York will want to wait to move him until closer to the trade deadline.  At that time, there will be less of a financial obligation for cap-strapped contenders to take on.  If Boston wants to do something sooner than later, they may have to look elsewhere.

I wonder if there’s a swap to be made with Pittsburgh for Derick Brassard.  He hasn’t fit in as well as the Penguins had hoped to the point where they’ve tried him on the wing.  If Boston is indeed willing to part with a young winger like Anders Bjork or Danton Heinen as has been suggested in recent weeks, I think there could be a fit for a trade.

On the lower end of the scale, Detroit’s Luke Glendening makes some sense as a target.  He doesn’t have the offensive upside that Nash does but he can win faceoffs and kill penalties while shifting between the third and fourth lines.  He wouldn’t have the type of impact the others would but would at least serve as some insurance.  He has two years left after this one but at a reasonable $1.8MM rate.

The challenge with hoping to add a center is simply that the market doesn’t really open up for those players until further into the season.  As a result, they’ll likely have to stick with David Backes down the middle for a little while longer.

There’s also the report that they’d like to move one of their underachieving youngsters for another young forward but those deals often take some time to materialize as many teams don’t want to take the risk of moving someone too soon.  Assuming Boston can make a trade like that, it’s hard to imagine that they’d get an established center in return so that may be one to shore up the wing with an eye on adding a center closer to the deadline.

fireballer: What happens if the Leafs simply don’t trade Nylander and he doesn’t play this season. Does he remain a restricted free agent after the season is over or does he become unrestricted?

Nothing changes on the Nylander front if we get past December 1st and he remains unsigned when it comes to his NHL situation.  He will still be a restricted free agent without salary arbitration eligibility and he will still be on track for unrestricted free agency in the 2023 offseason.  Of course, if he goes past December 1st without an NHL contract, he’ll be ineligible to play in the NHL for the rest of the season and would likely sign somewhere overseas.

binarydaddy: What’s the latest on the Nylander contract talks and/or possible trade destinations and packages that #LeafsNation can expect?

The latest is that nothing has changed from a couple of weeks ago.  Both sides are well apart in terms of the AAV on a long-term contract and while there has been some talk about a bridge deal, it appears to be more of a last-ditch option at this point.  All in all, we’re about two weeks away from this getting really interesting.

While it has been stated that plenty of teams have already expressed an interest in trading for him, I question how many actually have the key young player that Toronto would covet in return and the cap space to deal with a higher cap hit for this season relative to the AAV of the full contract.  (The longer this goes, the more bloated the 2018-19 cap hit is going to be and could head towards the $9MM – $10MM mark.)  This isn’t a situation where the Maple Leafs are going to accept a number four defenseman, a middle-six forward, and a draft pick.  If they move Nylander, it’s going to be for someone that can be a part of their core for a long time.

I think that limits the number of serious suitors to just a few teams.  Carolina is widely known to be interested but Toronto shouldn’t even entertain the notion of moving him there unless one of defensemen Jaccob Slavin or Brett Pesce are in the deal.  (Justin Faulk would help them but doesn’t have the team control that the others do.)  Philadelphia has been suggested as a fit but blueliner Ivan Provorov is unlikely to be in there and while Travis Sanheim has upside, he can’t be a centerpiece yet and I can’t see them taking a deal headlined by someone like Travis Konecny either.  Would the Flyers move Shayne Gostisbehere and would Toronto accept him as the top player coming back?  I suspect the Ducks would have plenty of interest but their salary cap situation would make a move difficult.

He’d be a nice fit in Nashville but the Preds probably aren’t breaking up the top four on their back end.  You can insert quite a few teams in a sentence like that as well – Nylander could help a ton of teams but they either lack the requisite type of player that GM Kyle Dubas likely wants or aren’t going to be willing to part with it.

That’s why I’m still of the mindset that a trade is unlikely.  If they want to seriously explore the idea of dealing William Nylander, the offseason makes a lot more sense to do so than now.  My projection a few weeks ago was a six-year deal but the closer this gets to December 1st, the higher the likelihood of a bridge contract gets.  That would get him signed, give Toronto a boost to put them in further contention, and basically allow them to punt the decision on whether they can fit all of their forwards in or not down the road.  It’s not a big win for anyone but at this stage of the game, the ‘perfect contract’ isn’t happening for either side.

ThePriceWasRight: Recognizing it’s still early but are the Canucks for real? Not top 10 on PK, PP, goals for or goals against would say this is a little lucky.

I’m not sold on them being for real just yet.  This isn’t an indictment on Vancouver specifically but we’re at the point of the season where most of the top teams aren’t firing on all cylinders.  In three of the four divisions, there’s someone in the top-three that hardly anyone would have expected to be in the playoff picture (the Canucks, Canadiens, and Islanders).  I’m not prepared to call any of their starts a sign of things to come at this point of the season.

Elias Pettersson is off to a very strong start but I can’t see him maintaining close to a goal per game average.  Brock Boeser is going to be out for a little while now as well.  There are also some concerns about their defense, especially with Alex Edler already on IR.  Plus, the goalie tandem of Jacob Markstrom and Anders Nilsson hasn’t got the job done in the past so it’s hard to have faith that all of a sudden, they will be able to take a big step forward.

Vancouver’s off to a good start and at the very least, it’s going to keep them around the playoff hunt for a while.  However, they’ll need to keep this up until closer to the midway mark of the season before it’s time to say their start is for real.

If your question wasn’t answered, watch for it to be covered in next weekend’s mailbag.  You can still submit questions here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.