Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Ottawa Senators
Current Cap Hit: $73,463,333 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Thomas Chabot (two years, $863K)
F Brady Tkachuk (three years, $925K)
F Colin White (one year, $925K)
D Christian Wolanin (one year, $925K)
Potential Bonuses:
Chabot: $360K
Tkachuk: $2.5MM
White: $850K
Total: $3.71MM
Tkachuk decided last month to forego the remainder of his college commitment to turn pro now. While he could ultimately wind up in the AHL or OHL (London has his rights), it’s likely that they will give him a good look at training camp to see if he can make an impact right away. White’s first full professional season had some ups and downs as he had difficulties staying healthy while he didn’t make as much of an impact in the minors as some would have hoped. However, with the team firmly in rebuilding mode, there’s a good chance he’ll land a regular spot in the lineup but he will likely have to work his way up from the bottom which means he likely won’t hit most of his bonuses.
Chabot is their top defenseman of the future (and depending on what happens with the Erik Karlsson trade talks, potentially the present as well). His rookie season saw him struggle at times but he took some steps forward in his development. Given how important he’s going to be for them, it wouldn’t be surprising if Ottawa looks to try to sign him to an early extension next summer before he can really command top dollar. Wolanin signed last season following the completion of his college campaign and acquitted himself well for the most part. He could benefit from more time in the minors but given their depth on the back end, he could wind up doing all of his development with the big club.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Paul Carey ($700K, UFA)
D Cody Ceci ($4.3MM, RFA)
F Matt Duchene ($6MM, UFA)
F Ryan Dzingel ($1.8MM, UFA)
D Erik Karlsson ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Max McCormick ($650K, UFA)
D Magnus Paajarvi ($900K, UFA)
F Tom Pyatt ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Mark Stone ($7.35MM, UFA)
D Chris Wideman ($1MM, UFA)
It’s a little scary to be an Ottawa fan with the number of prominent players they have on expiring deals. Stone is one of the top two-way players in the league and eclipsed the point per game mark for the first time last season. He’s a quality top line player now and should command north of $8MM on the open market if he has a comparable performance – are the Sens ready to make that type of commitment? If not, he becomes a strong candidate to be dealt. Duchene didn’t produce quite as intended after they paid an exceptional premium to acquire him midway through last season. With the demand for centers on the market, he will likely garner a bit of a raise as well. While he’s a local player, will he want to commit to a long-term rebuilding process? If he isn’t, then he also becomes a trade candidate.
Among the other forwards set to hit the open market, Dzingel is somewhat notable as well. He quietly put up a 23-goal season in 2017-18 and quality secondary scorers can get rewarded nicely in free agency. He could potentially double his current AAV with another season of 20 or more tallies. Pyatt’s case is likely tied to Guy Boucher’s fate behind the bench as the winger has followed his head coach a few times over the years but even if he sticks around, it should be around his current price. Paajarvi did enough after being claimed from St. Louis to warrant another look but he’s a depth player that shouldn’t be looking at a big raise next summer while Carey and McCormick will battle for the end-of-roster positions.
Then there’s Karlsson’s case. While he wasn’t at his best compared to previous seasons, he was still among the top point producing defensemen in the league while logging nearly 27 minutes a night of ice time. He’s still a legitimate number one defender and with Drew Doughty and Oliver Ekman-Larsson signing extensions already, he now stands alone as the top blueliner for the 2019 free agent class. It has been reported that he turned down an extension offer close to what Doughty received (eight years, $88MM) so it’s hard to envision the two sides working out a new contract for him to stick around. He has been part of plenty of trade speculation already and that’s only going to intensify in the weeks and months to come if something isn’t worked out by training camp.
Ceci surprised a surprisingly high arbitration award this summer, likely in large part due to him playing top pairing minutes at over 23 per game. Given the shape of their back end, that’s likely to be the case again in 2018-19 which will only bolster his arbitration case next offseason. With that in mind, he has to at least be considered as a non-tender candidate next summer if he struggles this upcoming season. Wideman got off to a strong start offensively last year before tearing his hamstring that took him out for the rest of the year. He’ll get a chance to lock down a regular role with some power play time which will certainly boost his free agency case a year from now.
Two Years Remaining
G Craig Anderson ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Mikkel Boedker ($4MM, UFA)
D Mark Borowiecki ($1.2MM, UFA)
G Mike Condon ($2.4MM, UFA)
F Clarke MacArthur ($4.65MM, UFA)
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($3.1MM, UFA)
The Senators picked up Boedker as part of the Mike Hoffman trade with the Sharks. While he struggled for the most part in San Jose, he’s only two years removed from a 51-point season and should have more opportunities to produce in Ottawa. If that doesn’t work out, his salary is down to $3MM for each of the remaining two years which is notable for a lower-budget team. Pageau is a capable third line center that’s above average at the faceoff dot. While this deal looked a bit pricey in the past, it’s certainly fair value now. MacArthur continues to deal with concussion troubles and isn’t likely to play again.
Borowiecki is capable of playing on the third pairing but even with their defensive depth eroding, he’s not likely going to move up the depth chart. Even so, a regular third pairing player making $1.2MM isn’t bad value.
Anderson signed this deal early last season when the team was thought to be more of a contender (and he was coming off of a good year). Now, this is a bit of an overpayment for someone whose numbers make him look like more of a platoon player than a true starter. Condon also struggled last season but he has shown himself to be capable of handling a larger workload than most backups and with the increase in backup salaries the last couple of years, his deal isn’t particularly outlandish.
Three Years Remaining
F Marian Gaborik ($4.875MM, UFA)
F Zack Smith ($3.25MM, UFA)
Gaborik was included in the Dion Phaneuf to Los Angeles trade last year in what amounted to a salary dump coming back. Many expected he would be bought out this summer but the two windows have come and gone. There are two possible reasons for this – he was still deemed injured and thus was ineligible or the Sens believe he’ll be out long enough (given his lengthy injury history) that they’ll be able to collect some insurance money on his deal that will be worth more to them than buying him out. Either way, this is an albatross of a contract. The same can’t be said for Smith. His deal is an overpayment given his limited production last year but he can play both center and the wing and be a spark in the bottom six at the very least while if his production returns, they can still get some value out of the deal.
Four Or More Years Remaining
F Bobby Ryan ($7.25MM through 2021-22)
To say that this contract hasn’t worked out would be a considerable understatement. Ryan has had difficulty staying healthy the last couple of years and when he has played, his performance has been that of a second liner. As a result, this deal is among the worst in the league to trade and it has gotten to the point where the team has entertained the idea of taking a lesser return in a Karlsson swap if it means getting his remaining money off the books.
Buyouts
F Alexandre Burrows ($2.5MM cap hit in 2018-19; payments of $833K through 2019-20)
Retained Salary Transactions
D Dion Phaneuf ($1.75MM through 2020-21)
Still To Sign
None
Best Value: Dzingel
Worst Value: Ryan
(Excluding entry-level contracts)
Looking Ahead
From a salary cap perspective, the Senators don’t project to be anywhere near the Upper Limit anytime soon. Instead, their focus will be to simply find a way to reach the floor which could be a bit of a challenge in 2018-19 if Karlsson, Stone, and Duchene are ultimately moved. Speculatively, they’re a team that makes sense to take on the contracts of injured players and not place them on LTIR to help them get to the floor.
With just three players (plus Phaneuf’s remaining commitment) on the books past 2019-20, Ottawa is well-positioned to drastically reshape their roster if they so desire. There’s a good chance that this team is going to look a whole lot different than it does now over the next 24 months.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.