The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the NHL’s great financial powerhouses. For years they used this financial might to sign or trade for legendary players who were no longer in their prime, willing to spare no expense to try and squeeze the last bit of talent out of the aging superstars. Ron Francis, Brian Leetch, Phil Housley, Joe Nieuwendyk, Owen Nolan, Eric Lindros, and on and on the list went to no avail. The Maple Leafs have failed for more than 50 years to secure a Stanley Cup, and to do it now would take a different approach.
With the installation of the salary cap, teams like Toronto and the Detroit Red Wings could no longer throw money at players and routinely spend countless dollars more than their competition. They could however remain at the cap ceiling year after year, spending every dollar allowed to try to bring a championship back to the city. This year though, things seem different. When perusing CapFriendly’s front page, one thing sticks out—the Maple Leafs have the third-lowest salary obligations for the 2018-19 season, only sitting ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils, two teams who often don’t spend to the cap ceiling.
Now of course the $65.7MM figure that is listed as the projected cap hit of the Maple Leafs doesn’t tell the whole story. The team still needs to sign restricted free agent William Nylander to a new contract before the season begins, and the young forward is looking for a long-term deal. That would take up a substantial chunk—perhaps as much as $6-7MM—of the $13.8MM in cap space the Maple Leafs currently enjoy. That number also includes only six defensemen, which is at least one fewer than the team will carry during the season. The extra body will likely cost them somewhere between $650K and $925K, depending on who they decide to bring up to the NHL.
The team also still has Nathan Horton‘s contract on the books though, despite the power forward not expected to ever play again. His $5.3MM cap hit could be placed on long-term injured reserve to give them even more salary flexibility, a tact that the team used last season with Horton and fellow injured forward Joffrey Lupul. The team won’t need to do that though unless they’re in danger of going over the cap ceiling, something they have no way of doing with the current projected roster.
It is then curious why the Maple Leafs haven’t taken advantage of this cap space. The quick explanation would be that they’re looking forward to next season when Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson will all need new contracts that could eat upwards of $20MM in cap space. The team will be shelling out cash to their young forward group and can’t take on any extra salary at the moment. But imagining Toronto leaving somewhere between $6-7MM in cap space available all season seems impossible, given their history of using every penny available to them.
Other than that idea worrying of about the future contracts there are two other potential explanations. One, is that the Maple Leafs believe that their young group will perform well enough to cash in on big performance bonuses once again. Matthews and Marner are both still on their entry-level contracts, and could earn up to $3.7MM in performance bonuses should they hit on all their targets. Even Par Lindholm, who was signed out of the SHL this season as a potential fourth-line center can earn up to $850K in bonuses, while Igor Ozhiganov who was brought over from the KHL to compete for a spot on the blue line could do the same. Any performance bonuses that a team doesn’t have room for under the cap are carried over to the next season, something that the Maple Leafs can’t really afford to have happen.
The other explanation though is much more exciting for Maple Leafs fans, as it means they could go after some of the biggest fish on the trade market at the deadline. As the season goes on, teams bank unused cap space while player cap hits get slowly paid off. That means acquiring a $7MM player at the trade deadline doesn’t take up the same amount of cap space as he would a few months earlier, and means that a team sitting below the cap ceiling all season could theoretically add a ton of salary for the last push towards the playoffs. For instance, if the Maple Leafs played the entire year with their current roster—that’s the one without Nylander or another defenseman—CapFriendly projects they could take on more than $64MM in player cap hits at the deadline.
That kind of cap space is important and can be very useful if used in the right situation. Many teams that spend right up to the ceiling from day one of the season find themselves having to balance out trades by sending out money, something that the Maple Leafs wouldn’t have to do even if they wanted to bring in the top rentals on the market. If the potential 2019 free agent market is anything to go by—which is a premature assumption to say the least—the trade deadline should be flush with talent, no matter which teams are still in the playoff hunt. Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, Jordan Eberle, Jeff Skinner, Kevin Hayes, Gustav Nyquist, Mats Zuccarello, Max Pacioretty, and Anders Lee are all players who are both on the last year of their contract and playing for teams who aren’t expected to compete for the Stanley Cup. They could all be available without any commitment in the future, and a team like Toronto could add several if they’re willing to give up the prospects to do it.
You don’t see the Maple Leafs at the bottom of the salary list very often. You likely won’t again for a very long time. But for now, it’s making them either a cautious builder or a dangerous trade shark. Or maybe a bit of both.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
How is this information even relevant? William Nylander is still left unsigned. He’ll get somewhere in the neighbourhood of 5-6 million and they’ll be right there in the middle of the pack again.
Did you read the headline or the article?
Obviously just the headline. It drives some people nuts when they realize the Leafs can and will fit all these guys under the salary cap.
not sure how you got that from the write-up.
the Leafs have 47 million invested next year prior to all their FAs. So add 18-20 million for Matthews and marner alone. another 6 for nylander and you’re now at over 70 million without factoring in losing 3 d men, Kapanen, johnsson, 3-4 other forwards and a backup goslie. yes Horton can be put on LTIR but the Leafs still need to address a ton of areas
And that’s why the Leafs have the best management team in the NHL for cap purposes. I have little to no doubt they have planned and prepared for this. Losing Gardiner and Hainsey next year will alone save 7 million on guys who can be replaced with Liljegren and another young D on an ELC. Next year is also the last year for Horton and Marleau, saving another 11.5 million. There is your 18 million. The cap also increases year after year. Likely to be a big bump if Seattle enters the league.
In the last 5 years alone, the cap has increased by 15 million. Even if over the next 5 years it goes up by 10 million, the Leafs are still in good shape.
Horton is an LTIR player so there is no cap savings. and yes I don’t see a cap issue in 2+ years necessarily. it’s next year which I believe will be the real issue. and getting rid of hainsey and Gardner for two entry level contracts likely doesn’t make this a Stanley cup winning defense.
Getting rid of Hainsey and Gardiner and replacing one with Liljegren would be fine. It’s pretty much impossible to even guess with who at this point, still too early and can’t predict what Dubas has planned. But if Parayko is the replacement for Hainsey as has been in the rumour mill lately, I think they’d be just fine.
As for Horton, his cap hit is included in the 47 million invested for next year. He cannot he placed on LTIR for cap relief until the first day of the season, so the team does need to be cap compliant including his salary. Therefore yes, there is cap savings.
As for the backup goalie, there are options such as Pickard or Sparks, both making less than a million. And on D, Borgman, Rosen, Ozhiganov, Holl, Marincin, Liljegren and Sandin that will all still be on cheap contracts to fill in those gaps. Dumolin, Hainsey, Schultz, Maatta, Daley and Cole doesn’t sound like a Cup winning defence either but they did it.