Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Buffalo Sabres
Current Cap Hit: $73,034,524 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Rasmus Dahlin (three years, $925K)
F Casey Mittelstadt (two years, $925K)
F Tage Thompson (two years, $925K)
Potential Bonuses:
Dahlin: $2.85MM
Mittelstadt: $850K
Thompson: $213K
Total: $3.913MM
Mittelstadt had a strong rookie season at the college level and the Sabres saw enough in him to convince him to forego the rest of his NCAA career and signed him back in March, burning the first year of his entry-level deal in the process. While Buffalo’s hopes are justifiably high that he can make an impact right away, he could be a year away from really stepping into their top-six. If that is how he progresses, one good year and one decent season could make him a bridge candidate. Thompson was a key component of the Ryan O’Reilly trade this summer and split last year between St. Louis and the AHL. It’s certainly possible that this is the case again if Thompson can’t lock down a spot on the top three lines to start the season. As he projects to be more of a complementary player, there’s a good chance Buffalo looks for a short-term deal with him two years from now.
That won’t be the case with Dahlin, however. The top pick back in June is expected to start in the top four defensively right away and it shouldn’t be long before he ascends into the number one role. He is touted as a legitimate franchise player and those are the ones that get locked up to long-term, big-money deals as soon as possible. There’s a good chance that two years from now, he’ll have already been inked to a max-term extension that makes him one of the higher paid defenders in the league.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
D Nathan Beaulieu ($2.4MM, RFA)
F Zemgus Girgensons ($1.6MM, RFA)
F Johan Larsson ($1.475MM, RFA)
D Jake McCabe ($1.6MM, RFA)
F Matt Moulson ($5MM, UFA)
F Jason Pominville ($5.6MM, UFA)
F Evan Rodrigues ($650K, RFA)
F Jeff Skinner ($5.725MM, UFA)
G Linus Ullmark ($750K, RFA)
The Sabres picked up Skinner earlier this month for a fairly small return given his offensive pedigree. He projects to slide onto their top line and really fill the hole vacated by Evander Kane while bringing that line more of a scoring touch. He could be poised to have a big season which would really boost his market value heading into free agency. Pominville may make nearly the same amount of money but his expectations will be considerably lower. He has become more of a role player since returning to Buffalo and should be in a bottom six spot in 2018-19. He’ll also be 36 when he hits the open market. Put it all together and he’s likely looking at having to take at least a 50% pay cut on his next deal and probably more than that. Moulson will almost assuredly be in the minors all year but nearly $4MM of his deal will still be on the books. He won’t be brought back next summer and they’ll certainly welcome the extra flexibility.
Girgensons was once viewed as a potential second or third line center but he has struggled to score in each of the past three seasons which has resulted in more of a checking role for him. He should be able to be qualified next summer but he won’t have much of a case for a raise if 2018-19 is comparable to the past three years. Larsson wasn’t able to build off of a decent half season in 2016-17 and scored just four times in 80 games last season. He’s likely to be on the fringes of the roster for the upcoming season and if his offensive struggles continue, he’ll be a non-tender candidate. Rodrigues performed rather well in his half season and is no longer waiver-exempt. He should be a regular now (albeit in a bottom-six role) and even if his output drops a bit, he should still get at least a small raise on his next deal.
Beaulieu was brought in from Montreal in advance of the Expansion Draft last summer with the hopes that a change of scenery would help him reach his potential. Instead, he turned in the worst season of his career and with their offseason additions on the left side, it’s possible that he’s out of the lineup to start the year. He’s lining up as a strong candidate to be non-qualified next summer. McCabe missed nearly the last two months of last season due to shoulder surgery, a disappointing ending to what was a fairly quiet year overall. He should still be able to hold down a regular spot but unless he takes a big step forward in his development, a one-year contract next summer is a real possibility.
Ullmark has been viewed as a goalie of the future for Buffalo and heads into the season poised to battle for the starting job with newcomer Carter Hutton. Assuming he gets into 25-30 games at a minimum, he should at least double his current AAV next summer and if it’s closer to a 50-50 split of playing time, he could approach the $3MM range on his next deal.
Two Years Remaining
D Zach Bogosian ($5.143MM, UFA)
D Matt Hunwick ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Marco Scandella ($4MM, UFA)
F Conor Sheary ($3MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Sobotka ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Scott Wilson ($1.05MM, UFA)
The Sabres picked up Sheary and Hunwick in what amounted to a salary cap dump from the Penguins earlier this summer. While Hunwick projects to be more of a depth player, Sheary should slide into a middle-six role. Showing that he can produce away from Pittsburgh’s top centers would go a long way towards helping establish his market value two years from now. Sobotka was also added primarily for salary cap purposes as he was included in the O’Reilly deal. After spending most of last season on the wing, he will need to get back to the middle if he wants to help his value. Wilson didn’t put the type of numbers last year that he did in 2016-17 in Pittsburgh but he did enough to likely earn himself a fourth line role next season.
Bogosian’s time in Buffalo has not been particularly good. He has had difficulty staying healthy in recent years and has struggled when he was in the lineup. There was some thought that he’d be a buyout candidate back in June and while that didn’t happen, he’ll be near the top of the list of candidates again next summer barring a bounce back year. Scandella was brought in to try to help stabilize Buffalo’s top four and he succeeded while taking on a larger role than he has been accustomed to. For a second pairing cap hit, this is a decent value deal.
Three Years Remaining
G Carter Hutton ($2.75MM, UFA)
Hutton came over in free agency to make a push at the starting job. He’s coming off a high-end year in St. Louis where he led the league in both save percentage and goals against average (among qualifying netminders) but he still played in just 32 games. He has yet to play more than 40 games in a single NHL season and to be the starter, Buffalo will be asking for more than that. That said, given the increasing market for quality backups, that’s the level Hutton needs to play at to justify this deal. With the year he just had, he should be able to do that and if he can lock down the starting job, this will be a bargain.
Four Or More Years Remaining
F Patrik Berglund ($3.85MM through 2021-22)
F Jack Eichel ($10MM through 2025-26)
F Kyle Okposo ($6MM through 2022-23)
D Rasmus Ristolainen ($5.4MM through 2021-22)
Eichel was the consolation prize to Buffalo not landing Connor McDavid in the 2015 draft. While he has yet to reach McDavid’s level (or come particularly close to doing so), he’s still viewed as a franchise player up the middle which is why the team quickly inked him to this deal last summer. For someone that has yet to reach the point per game mark though, this contract is somewhat of an overpayment until he takes that next step forward offensively and truly becomes an elite player. I can’t help but wonder if this deal has given some general managers pause about trying to lock up their top players to early extensions as there’s a good chance that had Buffalo waited to sign him until this summer that he’d have come in a little bit cheaper.
Berglund was another cap casualty for St. Louis in the O’Reilly trade and he comes to Buffalo with a chance to push for a second line role. If he can lock that down (and stay healthy), this could be a value acquisition. If not, he’ll be fairly paid as a third line center. Okposo hasn’t lit it up since coming over two years ago but he has at least reached 44 points in both seasons. That isn’t great value as his contract pays him like a top liner but it isn’t quite as disastrous as some of the other contracts handed out two summers ago.
Some of the shine has come off of Ristolainen as he seems to have plateaued in his development. On the flip side, he’s still a capable top pairing defender with some offensive skill and is signed to a below-market contract for four more years. Adding Dahlin will eventually take some pressure off the Finnish defender and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that be the catalyst to Ristolainen taking another step forward.
Buyouts
D Christian Ehrhoff ($857K through 2028-29, compliance buyout so cap-exempt)
F Cody Hodgson ($458K cap credit in 2018-19, $792K from 2019-20 through 2022-23)
F Ville Leino ($1.22MM through 2019-20, compliance buyout so cap-exempt)
Retained Salary Transactions
None
Still To Sign
Best Value: Ristolainen
Worst Value: Moulson
(Excluding entry-level contracts)
Looking Ahead
Buffalo shouldn’t have any issues in terms of the cap getting Reinhart signed and they’ll still have some wiggle room for 2018-19. From an even more encouraging standpoint, the big contracts they have coming off the books next summer will have them very well-positioned to be aggressive in trying to add to this core. The upcoming season should be somewhat of a transition year but expect them to be big players on the trade market and/or free agency in the summer of 2019. Brighter days are soon ahead.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Excellent article and break down.
Thanks for taking the time with all this detail.
Sabres fans appreciate it !!