The offseason is now in full swing with the draft complete and free agency now underway. What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come? Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Tampa Bay Lightning.
After missing the playoffs in 2016-17, Tampa Bay was looking to get back into Stanley Cup contention. While they fell short of that, it was still a successful season as they won the Atlantic Division while making it to the Eastern Conference Final before being eliminated by the eventual champions in Washington. They’ve already taken care of two key items on their summer to-do list with the re-signing of J.T. Miller and Ryan McDonagh’s extension; here are three other keys to their offseason.
Kucherov Extension Talks
Two summers ago, the Lightning held the cards when it came to then-RFA winger Nikita Kucherov. He didn’t have arbitration rights, no teams want to sign offer sheets, and the team had limited cap room. That forced a three-year, $14.3MM bridge deal with the third season being 2018-19 which makes him eligible for a contract extension as of July 1st.
It’s safe to say that the 25-year-old now holds the cards. Kucherov is coming off a 100-point season and has firmly established himself as a premier winger in the league (if not the premier winger). He will also be arbitration-eligible next summer and if he wants, he can simply file, go to the hearing, and get a one-year deal that will take him to unrestricted free agency.
That’s certainly not the route that GM Steve Yzerman will want to go. The question will be how much will it cost to get him on a long-term extension? While center Steven Stamkos set the bar two years ago when he signed for $8.5MM but it’s quite likely that Kucherov will cost more than that on his next contract. It’s not impossible to think he could surpass the $10MM mark and more than double his current cap hit. They may not get a deal done this summer but expect a lot of talks to occur in the weeks and months to come.
Free Up Long-Term Cap Room
Knowing that a new and much more expensive deal for Kucherov is on the horizon, Yzerman is going to have to look to free up some long-term space. As things stand, the team already has over $56MM on the books for 2019-20 per CapFriendly and that only includes 11 players. If Kucherov gets more than $10MM on an extension, that could present the Lightning with a situation where they’ll be looking to fill out nearly half their roster with only $13MM or so to spend. That’s not a palatable situation to work with. At some point, they’re going to have to move a core player out.
One player who has been speculated as someone that could move is center Tyler Johnson. However, his full no-trade clause kicked in on July 1st which could affect any deal. He has a more than manageable $5MM cap hit for six more years and with the center market as dried up as it is, they could get quite the return. While moving him would take a key piece out of their lineup, Miller can also play down the middle as can Brayden Point (also an RFA next year).
While winger Alex Killorn has been quite consistently productive in a secondary role over the past five years, he could be deemed too pricey at $4.45MM through 2022-23. However, he already has a full no-trade clause in place that could complicate things. He wouldn’t bring back as much in a return as Johnson but moving him could allow them to keep their depth down the middle. Veteran winger Ryan Callahan has a shorter-term deal to work with ($5.8MM through 2019-20) but his injury troubles will make him difficult to move.
At any rate, Tampa Bay is going to have to move out a notable player or two in the somewhat near future. If they plan to make a splash in free agency this summer, they may have to move someone out now in order to do so. If not, they can defer acting on this until next offseason but they’ll really be under the gun at that time.
Long-Term Stability On Defense
While the team already has seven defenders signed for next season (plus RFA Slater Koekkoek still to sign), only three are signed beyond the next 12 months in Victor Hedman, McDonagh, and Mikhail Sergachev. Three others are set to become unrestricted free agents next summer which could result in a fairly significant amount of turnover in a short period of time.
With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Yzerman seeking younger rearguards in any offseason trade discussions. While 2017 first-rounder Cal Foote figures to be in the mix a year from now, there isn’t anyone else that’s really on the verge of making an NHL push so they will need to add. Their back end is pretty well set for 2018-19 and should be in good shape with McDonagh now being there for the full season but this is a group that doesn’t have a lot of stability beyond then which is something that the team should be looking to address.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.