Looking Ahead To The Incoming Seguin Saga

Superstars in their prime never reach free agency. That’s what was the common belief leading up to the summer of 2016, when Steven Stamkos still didn’t have a contract extension with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Even as the months went by, Stamkos was always expected to re-sign like so many other stars had done before him. People knew to not get excited about a potential big name NHL free agent, as so often they would sign a team-leading contract extension well in advance and never even flirt with the open market. Stamkos though was different. The star center certainly flirted, even going out for dates with his potential suitors by taking meetings during the free agent negotiation window. Maybe there was a change coming in the NHL, and Stamkos would upend the apple cart by leaving Tampa Bay for another team with massive contract offer.

And then, during one of the wildest days in recent NHL history, he didn’t.

Stamkos re-signed with the Lightning for a reasonable, below-market contract extension after seeing what else was out there and the NHL landscape returned to normal. The still relatively young forward chose the only franchise that he’d ever played for and a chance to compete for the Stanley Cup over the bigger dollar signs (at least in terms of pre-tax salary) offered elsewhere. Perhaps we witnessed the first cracks in the system with the Stamkos decision, but the outcome remained the same: superstars in their prime never reach free agency.

But this year something did change. John Tavares, probably the player most closely linked to Stamkos throughout his hockey playing career given their similar backgrounds, age group and NHL impact, was unsigned when the free agent bell rang on July 1st. A long, winding negotiation with the New York Islanders that had included an entire organizational face lift a few weeks prior ended without Tavares following the established hockey model of re-signing with the franchise you helped shape, and suddenly 30 other teams were (theoretically) in the running to add a star player in his prime for nothing more than money. Tavares wouldn’t last long on the open market, as his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs would quickly announce a seven-year, $77MM contract for their local hero. Whether the decision had to do with money, front office structure, Stanley Cup contention or just home cooking won’t ever be really known, but one thing was clear this July; the NHL free agent landscape had been changed.

Now suddenly a player in his prime could make it to free agency, and wasn’t necessarily expected to stay true to the team he currently played for. We perhaps saw the effect immediately when Artemi Panarin announced that he didn’t currently want to discuss an extension with the Columbus Blue Jackets, despite speaking highly of the organization and coaching staff. There doesn’t seem to be an animosity between the two sides but Panarin, now unburdened by the idea that a star player has to negotiate an extension early, decided he can wait to make a decision at a later date. The Blue Jackets are understandably worried about that situation, with rumors surfacing that they have at least considered a trade as a potential outcome for Panarin over the next year. They won’t want to be caught holding his empty jersey on July 1, 2019 without anything to show for it.

Where the Tavares example really becomes interesting though is with a more comparable player than Panarin, and one that is now less than a year away from perhaps inking his own $80MM+ contract. Tyler Seguin, the top line center for the Dallas Stars and second-overall pick from 2010, is now three weeks into the final season of his current six-year contract without an extension to be found. Seguin, 26, was born just a little more than a year after Tavares, just down the road in Brampton, Ontario. While Tavares was playing his final season of junior hockey for the Oshawa Generals and London Knights, Seguin was in his first for the Plymouth Whalers. Though Seguin would eventually drop behind Taylor Hall at the top of the 2010 draft board, his future potential was extremely well regarded by scouts all across the league as a potential top line center. What he’s turned into is perhaps even more impressive.

In each of last five seasons since being traded to Dallas, Seguin has recorded at least 26 goals and 72 points putting him among the NHL leaders for offensive production on yearly basis. In fact, his 384 points during that time is 12 more than the 372 that Tavares has registered during the same time, though it does come in nine more games played. Seguin is undoubtedly one of the top players in the NHL despite his checkered history with the Boston Bruins and their eventual decision to move on from him, and could be considered an even better free agent target than Tavares was this summer.

Though it certainly hasn’t taken up much space on talk radio in many NHL markets given Seguin’s relatively low-key reputation—playing in Dallas will do that to some players—it will before long. The Tavares negotiations were a daily concern for Islanders fans all season, with those from other markets drooling at the opportunity that could present itself if the Long Island captain ever made it to free agency. Should Seguin remain unsigned by the start of the season you can expect the same, perhaps with even more fervor given that there is now recent precedent of a player of his ilk getting to the open market. There’s no doubt that Seguin could change the fate of a franchise looking to contend in 2019-20, and his star should be considered no less bright than that of Tavares or Panarin.

As with almost any pending free agent, it’s important to note that Seguin has never indicated that he would not re-sign with Dallas or that he dislikes the organization in any way. In fact there is plenty of reason to expect he will eventually ink an eight-year extension with the team and play out the majority of his career in Texas. After what has happened this summer though, you can’t blame anyone for thinking their team may get a chance in a year’s time at adding one of the very best players in the NHL. After all, superstars in their prime now sometimes reach free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images