With most teams now in offseason mode, this edition of the mailbag attempts to forecast some of the activity around the league this summer.
@kingspencer24: What do you think Florida will do this offseason via trade, free agency and draft how active do you think they’ll be? Do you think they’ll be a playoff team next season?
I’ll start with the last one. Yes, I think they will be a playoff team in 2018-19. I don’t want to read too much into their late-season run that got them back into the mix but their young core should only improve with another year of experience under their belts while they have some prospects pushing to make the jump. As long as they can get steady goaltending out of Roberto Luongo and James Reimer, a Wild Card spot at the very least is a possibility.
With that in mind, I don’t expect them to be too active. GM Dale Tallon has suggested previously that he’s more interested in adding players closer to the age of their core which limits them in free agency. I suspect they’ll either only look to add players that are 27 or 28 that are close enough to that core age or one-year stopgaps in case some of their youngsters need more development time.
The trade market is where I expect they’ll be more active. They have a deep prospect pool to deal from and if their intention is to keep Nick Bjugstad (a natural center) on the wing moving forward, dealing him would make some sense given the demand around the league for help down the middle. That prospect pool could also enable them to deal their first-rounder although I don’t see them doing that. I can see them targeting a younger top-six winger and looking to build from within the rest of the way. All in all, I doubt it will be as busy an offseason as the summer of 2017 was.
Paul Heyman: Who should the Blues try to target in free agency and should they sign Fabbri to a 1yr deal to see if he has a healthy season next year?
The short answer is that any top-six forward should be targeted. That was a need this past season but this time around, they actually have some money to work with. They’re going to need to sign a replacement for Paul Stastny (or perhaps try to bring him back as a free agent) so they’ll surely kick the tires on John Tavares and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them inquire about Tyler Bozak as well. Beyond them, the next level has players comparable to internal options like Patrik Berglund or Vladimir Sobotka so adding a similar player to them may not be the best use of their funds.
On the wing, I’ve long thought that James van Riemsdyk would be a good fit there. He’s not a great fit as a number one go-to option but with Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz already there, he wouldn’t need to be. He was great with Toronto in more of an exploitative role and he could be in that spot in St. Louis. James Neal would fit in a similar role as well while Patrick Maroon, a St. Louis native, would certainly add some grit into their top-six.
As for Robby Fabbri, the short-term bridge deal (one or two years) makes the most sense but if I was Doug Armstrong, I’d at least kick the tires to see if his camp was open to some long-term security. Given how long he has missed, there’s at least a chance for a possible discount on a longer-term deal and if the Blues are confident he can rebound, getting a top-six piece locked up for a cheaper rate would be a big help for them. That said, I expect they’ll go the bridge route and use the money saved by doing that to put towards adding more established help up front.
goggles: Do you think the Jets can and will re-sign Trouba?
Back when Jacob Trouba was in his contract squabble (which was a little more than a year and a half ago), I’d have thought there was no chance that this would be an option. The bridge deal was just going to be a way to get him playing again for prospective suitors and it would be a new team having this conversation with him. That’s clearly not the case now.
Yes, the logjam on the right side (his clearly-desired spot) is still there but it’s only for one more year as Tyler Myers is just one season away from unrestricted free agency. With Dustin Byfuglien still signed for three more seasons and new deals for Blake Wheeler (UFA), Patrik Laine, and Kyle Connor (both RFAs) one year away, I’d suggest that Myers is the likelier one to feel the squeeze 12 months from now when they’re forced to let some players go since they won’t be able to keep them all. That shouldn’t be the case this summer so why make a Trouba trade now?
Trouba isn’t coming off the best of platform seasons having only played in 55 games which would hurt Winnipeg’s bargaining power in a trade but will help them in negotiations.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little bit of a compromise between the two sides. I doubt Winnipeg wants to go the year-by-year route and considering the year Trouba had, it’s not a great one to build off of for long-term contract talks. As a result, I think a four-year, meet in the middle compromise may happen. That will provide the Jets with a pair of RFA years to lower the AAV a little bit which will come in handy for next summer while allowing Trouba a shot to hit the open market in his 20s. It’s not a perfect situation for either side but is one that would work well enough for each of them.
Zack35: Edmonton has a ton of pressure to bounce back after a horrible season, does Chiarelli panic and make another Chiarelli one for one move?
With Edmonton being fully in win-now mode, I expect GM Peter Chiarelli to be active this summer. Given that they’ll be tight to the salary cap thanks in large part to Connor McDavid’s new $12.5MM deal, they’re not going to be in a position to add much on the free agent market so any moves they make are going to have to involve salary going the other way. Long story short, another one-for-one move is very much a possibility.
However, there is one other option that I could see them go with that would be a different type of move from the player-player swaps we’ve seen the last two summers. The Oilers have the tenth-overall pick in next month’s draft and whoever they get with that selection isn’t going to be ready to jump in right away. Accordingly, I could see Chiarelli try to move that pick for someone that is a year or two older that is still on an entry-level deal but could be ready to step in either at the beginning of next season or soon after that.
Instead of swapping out core players like they did previously in Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle though, I wonder if they try a different approach and look to do a swap of bad contracts in the hopes that a change of scenery will revitalize whoever comes the other way. I don’t think they want to shake up their core much more so doing this, changing up the expensive complementary players, becomes the next option at Chiarelli’s disposal.
@PeteSchirrick17: Think the Canes go Svechnikov or Zadina at #2? And do they make an immediate impact next season?
mikedickinson: Big Canes fan and I want them to stay at #2, but what kind of package would it take for teams to move up?
I think they go with Barrie winger Andrei Svechnikov at second overall. He’s a dynamic winger and while he isn’t a true power forward at the moment, he has the potential to fill out his frame and become one in the years to come. Zadina is a pure goal scoring talent but he doesn’t have that power forward potential so I’d take Svechnikov who, in my opinion, is in a class of his own in terms of the forwards in this draft class. Yes, Zadina showed some chemistry with Martin Necas at the World Juniors but that alone isn’t enough to justify picking him over Svechnikov.
A trade-down scenario doesn’t make much sense for Carolina. They’re a team that has good secondary talent but lacks top-end pieces. Trading down means foregoing a top-end player for presumably lesser-talented ones. Svechnikov is a top-line winger down the road and should make a notable impact next season. For a trade to make sense, they’d need to get a top-line player in return and that’s not going to be available in a trade down. That’s more of a trade-out situation where you give up longer-term control for someone who can help move the needle right away. That’s the likelier trade scenario for Carolina since they’re looking to make a splash under new ownership but for them, the best call they can make is to stand pat and take Svechnikov.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.