While the playoffs are ongoing, many teams have already started their offseason planning. What storylines lie ahead around the league? Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Ottawa Senators.
Fresh off an appearance in the Eastern Conference Final, expectations were high in Ottawa heading into the season. However, a slow start led to a blockbuster trade with the acquisition of Matt Duchene but that didn’t change their fortunes. Their struggles continued throughout the year and after narrowing missing the Stanley Cup Final, they found themselves finishing 30th overall. Here are the keys to their offseason.
Karlsson’s Future
As the trade deadline got closer and closer, speculation increased regarding the future of defenseman Erik Karlsson. It got to the point where it was looking more and more like he would be dealt with Vegas emerging as a potential landing spot. The deal wound up being scuttled but as the draft gets closer, the discussions will only intensify.
Adding to the intrigue here is Karlsson’s contract status as he is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2018-19. GM Pierre Dorion confirmed last month that he will make an offer to Karlsson’s camp on July 1st but for a team that isn’t typically among the top spenders in the NHL, can they afford to give him the contract he’s expected to command?
Whether it’s a trade or a contract extension, Dorion has a big decision to make. This is something that conceivably can’t drag out into next season; this is one of those situations that won’t be helped by the media attention it would be bound to get if there wasn’t a resolution by October.
Decide On Buyouts
In his end-of-season press conference, Dorion suggested that the Sens may be willing to buy out players this summer and even acknowledged that he had discussed the possibility with some players during their exit interviews. Doing so would free up some cap space to work with but as they’re not a team that typically spends to the Upper Limit, paying more players not to play for them (they’re already retaining on Dion Phaneuf) may not be the greatest move either.
In terms of who they could be looking at, winger Marian Gaborik comes to mind. He was acquired in the Phaneuf trade but his presence was more about of balancing salary than filling a need. While he played better in Ottawa, he still has three years left (with nearly $11MM in total salary) on his contract and is injury-prone. Alexandre Burrows, another winger, cleared waivers at the trade deadline and with one year and $2.5MM left on his deal, he would be a more affordable buyout. Winger Bobby Ryan has been tied to the Karlsson trade speculation but if they can’t unload his contract in a trade, it’s hard to imagine they would buy him out with four years and $30MM remaining on it; that’s just too rich for a smaller-market team.
Contract For Stone
All the discussion surrounding Karlsson has drawn most of the headlines which has allowed Mark Stone’s contract situation to go under the radar somewhat. He’s set to become a restricted free agent in July (with a qualifying offer of $4.5MM which he’ll undoubtedly receive). He’s also arbitration-eligible and most importantly, is only a year away from UFA eligibility.
His performance in 2017-18 gives him a lot of leverage to work with. Despite missing 24 games, he still posted 62 points, surpassing the point-per-game mark for the first time in his career. That stat is going to look awfully good in an arbitration filing if it gets that far.
Ryan’s contract carries a $7.5MM cap hit and there’s a strong case to be made that Stone’s next deal should surpass his as the 25-year-old has out-produced Ryan in each of the last four years while emerging as a legitimate top-line player. If Ottawa deems that too rich of an ask, then all of a sudden he becomes a prime trade candidate at some point throughout the year. If they do reach an agreement, will that have an impact on Karlsson; can they afford to keep both long-term? The safe bet here is that Stone and the Senators come to terms on a long-term deal but it’s going to be a very big one when they do put pen to paper.
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