Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio this morning, and spoke candidly about his thoughts on the Erik Karlsson and John Tavares sagas. On Karlsson in particular, Friedman was pessimistic on the Ottawa Senators chance to keep their captain in town long-term.
I think right now we’re at a point where everybody will be shocked if Erik Karlsson’s going to be in Ottawa at the start of next year. I don’t think there is a lot of people who see that as the option.
This comes after Karlsson was spotted taking the puck from the net after his final home game, and not joining the team on the road for their last few games. Neither of those things are definitive, especially given the extremely difficult times Karlsson is dealing with in his personal life. The 27-year old’s son was stillborn in late March, and he is currently spending time with his wife at home in Ottawa. The Senators would obviously welcome him back for their final games tonight and tomorrow, but no one would criticize him for putting family first.
Still, the thought that he has played his last game in an Ottawa Senators sweater is one that can’t easily be shaken. The superstar defenseman has been the subject of rumors all season, and there were multiple reports of trade deadline deals that came close. The Vegas Golden Knights were apparently one of those teams pursuing him at the deadline, but couldn’t get something of that magnitude finalized with such a hard deadline. In the offseason, with one more year on his contract those talks would be able to take as long as they need.
Trading Karlsson would likely signal the start of a mini rebuild in Ottawa, despite having spent future assets to acquire Matt Duchene earlier this season. They owe Colorado a first-round pick this year or next, which will be a tough decision to make given that they’ll be picking somewhere high this season. The Senators are currently 30th in the league with 67 points, but could drop as many as three spots after the draft lottery. If they end up sending the 2019 pick instead, it is not lottery protected and could theoretically be the first-overall selection.
There are quite a few interesting prospects coming through the pipeline in Ottawa, which makes the Karlsson decision even tougher. If they aren’t going to be able to re-sign him, trading him for near NHL-ready talent could actually make them better in 2019-20, not just some theoretical future. That question, of whether or not they can re-sign him, is one none of us can know at this point. Karlsson has always been loyal to Ottawa and spoken highly of the city, but there are other issues at play. The Senators franchise has never been accused of being big spenders, and a long-term deal for their captain would likely push close to $100MM. That might be out of their price range entirely, making negotiations impossible. The Norris-winner has explained that he’s going to ask for what he believes he’s worth, and not give a big discount to any team.
As Friedman implied, it does seem like this situation is heading towards an inevitable trade. The Senators get a large package of assets that can help them quickly, while someone else gets one of the best defensemen in the league. Who that will be is completely up in the air at this point, as after the season ends there will be dozens of teams calling to level interest. Whatever happens, Ottawa will be front and center this offseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
if this was another hockey market I would say it’s probably the best move. In Ottawa however, the fans are already calling for the owners head, attendance is down, sales of merchandise is down and all this will continue with no playoffs. I’m not sure trading away the franchise player and FACE of the franchise helps with this. Again if this was Montreal, the dedication is enough that fans will still go to games but in Ottawa we have seen that even with a decent team they struggle to draw. With a bad team who has just traded away arguably it’s second most well known player ever behind Alfie, I can’t see how this works out well from a business standpoint.
This is very true. It would be devistating to the Sens to lose such a face of their whole franchise, but it looks inevitable. The 4 franchises that will be defined by this summer moving forward?? Flames, Sens, Oilers, and Islanders… what they all do this summer will define how their fans see them for years to come.
I agree however with the oilers slightly less. they have arguably the best player in hockey right now and a supporting player in Leon. the rest of the team however certainly can see some change. their owner however does spend money.
the issue with the sens is their owner is cheap. if he wants to get rid of karlsson it will include Ryan to dump a contract. not a horrible idea if you plan on using the extra money. but if you are cheap like melnyk has become, trading karlsson alone for young pieces and picks is ok as it can start a quick retool but attaching Ryan means you are getting less back and this might as well be a full fledged rebuild. no need for Hoffman Smith or pyatt.
it’s a dumpster fire
Why are Sen fans so convinced a rebuild is a bad thing? The Leafs were hockey dung for years and a reboot hasn’t hurt them any. Karlsson moving on will be a win/win for everyone involved. As mentioned in the article, someone will get an excellent defenseman and Ottawa will get a nice package to rebuild with as compensation.
cross as a leaf fan living in Ottawa i can tell you a couple reasons why sens fans think that.
1. because the package will be watered down. this front office is insistent on pairing karlsson with Ryan to get that contract off the books which means the package won’t be close to what it would be if it was just karlsson.
2. sens fans think this team isn’t as bad as it was this year and they are right. however most sens fans think this team is closer to last year’s conference finalists which is also wrong. they are likely somewhere in the 7-11 range in the east and will only go as far as their goalies will take them.
3. personal opinion alert- the issue isn’t that a rebuild isn’t a good idea. It’s that this team struggles to get fans when they are good with arena placement. trading the franchise player and FACE of the franchise leaves this team with no real face, no marketable player and a fan base who won’t go to games because it’s feeling is the owners cheapness is the reason this is happening.