John Carlson is having an outstanding season, and he’s doing it as the fourth-highest paid defenseman on the Washington Capitals. Despite the fact that he’s tied for the league lead in points from a defenseman, a legitimate candidate for the Norris Trophy, and logging almost two minutes more each game than anyone else on the Capitals, he’s being paid just $4.0MM this season. Matt Niskanen, Dmitry Orlov and Brooks Orpik all carry much higher cap hits, and are earning more actual salary.
But boy, is Carlson about to get paid.
In the upcoming free agent class, no defenseman comes anywhere close to providing the impact Carlson has, and if it weren’t for a certain center in New York he’d have a good shot at being the top name on the board at any position. Calvin de Haan, Mike Green and Jack Johnson might be nice names to add, but Carlson is on another level.
So, why would the Capitals let him go? Part of the reason may lie in the fact that he’s the fourth name down when looking at the salaries on their blue line. With so much money tied up in Niskanen, Orlov and Orpik, there might just not be enough left for Carlson if he demands a deal approaching some of his contemporaries. Giving him something like $7MM per season (or perhaps even more) would make navigating the cap very tricky, given their long-term commitments to so many other players.
But they also can’t really afford to lose him. Though Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos have showed they can play at the NHL level, they’re not about to pick up the slack for a departing Norris candidate (or winner). Orpik is a buyout candidate once again, but at this point it doesn’t save a ton of money going forward and it might just be easier to ride out his last year in 2018-19.
So will Carlson stay? The Capitals have made it clear they will try to re-sign him, and they’ve shown a willingness in the past to give out max-length deals to keep the cap hit as low as possible. Cast your vote below, and leave a comment with where you think he’ll end up in the future.
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There will be so many other suitors for his services that can afford 6-7 mil. He has played himself off of the Caps line up.
Toronto is going to give him 8-9 million a year…. Montreal might lineup for his services as well.
the old Toronto regime would have done that but this one even though it wants an elite defender won’t shell out that money for Carlson. at most 7 if they are interested and even that is predicated on of they are interested in Tavares.
Unless they are able to trade for a replacement, they can’t let him walk. Aside from this year, he’s put up more the 40points just once in his career. If he enjoys playing in WAS, I could see him staying for that 6-7mil over an 8 year contract. Or have a top heavy contract that decreases as he gets older like Chara’s who is being paid $4mil this year. But there’s definitely a chance someone comes in and makes an 8+mil/yr offer over a ridiculous amount of years and that team would hate themselves in a couple of years.
No doubt he is there best blue liner…find a way to pay the man!