The Ottawa Senators were within a goal of the Stanley Cup Final last season. On the backs of heroic performances by Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson, a trapping, defensive team pushed the Pittsburgh Penguins to the brink of elimination before bowing out in double overtime of game seven. That had fans of the team excited about this season, and pushing for GM Pierre Dorion to add to a team that was close to the Stanley Cup.
As former NHL executive Frank Provenzano notes for The Athletic though, thinking your team is close to winning it all after one unexpected playoff run can be dangerous. Provenzano is among the first (of what is sure to be many) to suggest what had previously been unthinkable: perhaps it’s time to consider trading Karlsson.
Just a few weeks ago the Senators went out and added Matt Duchene, bringing in a former Olympian who was expected to kick-start their offense. The fact that he had just a year and a half left on his deal (coincidentally the same length as Karlsson) didn’t matter, as they were close enough that he could push them over the edge right away. They needed to move out Kyle Turris (and several other pieces) to do so, but he seemed unlikely to re-sign with the team after this season when he became an unrestricted free agent. The problem there is, as Craig Button screamed into the radio airwaves yesterday on TSN 1050, “they traded a better player for a lesser player.” Button believes Turris is better than Duchene right now, and the early returns would back him up.
Turris has 12 points in 13 games for the Nashville Predators since the deal, while Duchene has just two. The Senators meanwhile have gone 3-8-1 with Duchene in the lineup, including losing seven of their last eight in regulation. That has seen them tumble down in the standings, even as they play in arguably the weakest division in the NHL. As of Thursday, they find themselves ahead of only Buffalo in the Atlantic Division and tied with the Florida Panthers with 24 points. Not good enough for a team that expected to compete.
While the NHL season is far from over, and a rebound from the team is more than just possible, it may be time to start thinking about drastic changes to their core group. As noted above, Karlsson is only signed until the summer of 2019 and has made it clear that he’ll cost a boatload on the open market. Derick Brassard and Mike Hoffman are signed for one and two years respectively after this season, and are both no longer young players with years of improvement ahead of them. Mark Stone, the team’s best forward will hit restricted free agency this summer and should expect a big deal, but it’s not clear how long-term he’ll want to go with the club. Stone will turn 26 before the summer hits, and could get to unrestricted free agency himself with just a one-year deal.
It’s not over for the Senators just yet, but Provenzano’s article won’t be the first written about the possibility of a Karlsson trade. After July 1st hits, and an extension is possible, every passing day will fuel speculation on whether the team should move him before he hits the open market. As one of the most valuable players in the league, it’s not clear who would even have the guts to give up the kind of package Ottawa would need in return. But it’s an interesting possibility if the season continues to progress as it has so far for the Senators.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
The Mika Zibenajad trade was terrible for Ottawa
I wouldn’t be completely opposed to a tear down. The farm system is already pretty loaded and a rebuild wouldn’t be as lengthy as some other teams. Hoffman and Stone could still be apart of the eventual core as well
At least the Duchene trade gives them a couple years of team control over him so they don’t have to trade him immediately for less like the Islanders did with Vanek a few years ago