Aging Stars Left Behind

Probably the most intriguing subplot of the NHL off-season this summer has been the total unwillingness of many teams to sign older players. Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton are two notable examples, but even in their cases there was a lot of unnecessary complication. Marleau had to leave the only franchise he’d ever played for to get an additional contract year, while Thornton had to settle for a single year in San Jose. While hockey fans are enamored by the seemingly ageless Jaromir Jagr, GMs aren’t so impressed. What gives?

The league is heading in a particular direction, and that direction is speed and puck possession. Analytics are absolutely dominating every conversation with NHL executives, agents, coaches, and scouts. For the first year however, we’re seeing this level of scrutiny drastically and obviously affecting player signings and market value. If you had said even three years ago that 46-point hall-of-fame winger would have difficulty finding a home on a cheap NHL contract, you’d have been laughed out of the room.

Shane Doan and Jarome Iginla are interesting cases, each for different reasons. Doan was the ultimate team player in Arizona, dealing with nearly two decades of ownership drama and poor-performing teams. He’s also fiercely disliked within his division for his skills in the art of aggravating. He hits, he plays defense, and he still has the offensive acumen to contribute to a third or fourth line. No takers. Iginla has certainly slowed down, but he looked like he belonged in Los Angeles. He has undeniable scoring ability, and 20 goals wouldn’t be out of the question. His leadership skills were lauded endlessly as the gritty, take-no-prisoners captain in Calgary. At the historically underappreciated left-wing position, he stands out in the new millennium as truly elite. Not to mention, he’s still desperate for that first Cup ring. No takers. Andrei Markov will be 39 years old, but he’s one of the most consistent powerplay quarterbacks in the post-lockout age. He can still skate relatively well and would even be able to handle second-pairing minutes. His shot is a bomb and it seems he never misses a pass when he has a lane. He can’t find a team willing to offer him a second year on his contract. No takers.

Then there’s Jagr. Jagr is easily within the top 50 players of all time. He’s flirting with 2000 points and he controls the puck better than almost anyone in the league, even at the ripe age of 45. He hasn’t posted a negative Corsi since the stat was tracked, and is only a season removed from 66 points, which helped propel Florida into the playoff for the first time in an eon. His foot speed is really his only drawback, and yet, he sits and waits. It’s questionable as to how much of the holdup is based on his desire for adequate compensation, but the fact remains that he is still unclaimed.

Ultimately, the issue for these players comes down to a combination of issues. Firstly, analytics. For those of us who aren’t particularly adept, this overwhelming trend may seem tiresome. There are certainly players in the league who agree that it leaves a lot to be desired. Still in its infancy, Fenwick and Corsi percentiles are really all that has been accepted by the mainstream of hockey fandom, while most front offices have entire positions dedicated to this developing field. A huge part of the disconnect between onlookers and organizations lies in that difference in emphasis of these advanced stats.

Secondly, many teams in the league simply don’t feel they are truly ready to compete for a Stanley Cup. At the moment, under 10 teams probably believe they can contend in the upcoming season, barring a Cinderella run. The league’s parity is arguably at an all-time low since 2004. Consequently, many teams are looking to rebuild or retool their teams, to gain young talent and speedy, dynamic players who will be a part of the future for multiple years. The aforementioned players are all seeking one or two year deals, and many teams simply aren’t thinking in that timeframe. Additionally, the few teams who do feel set to contend right now (Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington, etc.) are tight up against the cap and don’t want to allocate valuable dollars to a “declining” asset.

Whether this scenario is fair or not to aging players, it seems a dynamic that is here to stay. It would be wholly unsurprising to see this avoidance of over-35 contracts become a trend in the coming years. They’ve certainly bitten teams hard in the past, and perhaps general managers are backing away for good reason. Most of these players should still find a fit, but the prices could be exceptionally low.