Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
The Toronto Maple Leafs entered the 2016-17 season fresh faced and looking to start a new chapter in their long history. After ripping apart the old core by moving Phil Kessel and then Dion Phaneuf in blockbuster trades, the team had finished last and acquired the prize they’d hoped for: Auston Matthews. Adding Matthews to an incredibly young group resulted in success for the franchise, squeaking in the playoffs as the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
Though they were eliminated by the Washington Capitals in six games, not many Toronto fans were upset with the outcome. The teenaged-success of Matthews and Mitch Marner had revitalized their hopes and they head into this summer as legitimate contenders for the playoffs once again. Because of their reliance on youth, the expansion draft doesn’t pose as big of a problem for them as some other teams.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Joffrey Lupul, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, Matt Martin, Eric Fehr, Kerby Rychel, Ben Smith, Josh Leivo, Connor Brown, Seth Griffith, Brendan Leipsic
Defensemen:
Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, Alexey Marchenko, Martin Marincin, Connor Carrick
Goaltenders:
Frederik Andersen, Antoine Bibeau, Garret Sparks
Notable Exemptions
Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Zach Hyman, Nikita Soshnikov, Kasperi Kapanen, Nikita Zaitsev, Calle Rosen, Nathan Horton
Key Decisions
With most of their prized assets exempt already from the draft, Brendan Shanahan and Lou Lamoriello were able to easily prepare for the draft during the season. They accepted Eric Fehr from the Pittsburgh Penguins at the deadline, and re-signed Ben Smith to a minimum salary deal in order to fulfill the forward exposure requirements, and can easily go with the 7-3-1 protection scheme in order to limit Vegas’ selection. 
Up front, the Leafs have a few obvious choices like Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak. Each of those three set career highs in points this season, and hold value either to the team long-term (Kadri) or on the trade market this summer and next year. Past that, the team will likely hold onto Leo Komarov for his defensive ability and Connor Brown as the oft-forgotten rookie who also scored 20-goals this season. That leaves them with two spots and a few decisions to make.
Out of the rest of the forwards, Matt Martin has the best case for protection after signing a four-year pact with the team and playing in all 82 contests. Head coach Mike Babcock has spoken quite highly of his leadership and role on the team, and after leading all NHL forwards in hits for the sixth consecutive season means more to them than just his offensive production (or lack thereof). After that, a decision between Kerby Rychel, Josh Leivo or Brendan Leipsic will likely round out the list and leave two players as possibilities for Vegas.
Rychel was acquired by the Leafs last offseason in exchange for Scott Harrington, and is a former first-round pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets. After a slow start, he finished with 52 points in the AHL and will look to try and crack the roster next year if he’s still in Toronto. Leivo spent most of the season in the press box, contributing whenever he could get himself into the lineup. With 10 points in 13 games, he showed that he could contribute offensively. If selected by Vegas he—or Leipsic, who was a point-per-game player in the AHL this season—could figure into their top six, as skilled forwards will be hard to find for the expansion club.
On defense, three slots should be enough as Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and Connor Carrick are the only ones with any real future in Toronto. Both Matt Hunwick and Roman Polak are free agents, while Alexey Marchenko and Martin Marincin played rarely for the club even when healthy. On that note, the Leafs could theoretically acquire another defender before the draft and leave Carrick (or several forwards) exposed.
In net Frederik Andersen is a virtual guarantee, as neither of the younger goaltenders warrant any thought. Bibeau and Sparks have both had up-and-down careers so far, and neither project to be of interest to Vegas.
Among their trade deadline acquisitions was Brian Boyle, who could be of some interest to Vegas in the exclusive negotiation window. The Golden Knights will have a chance to talk to free agents, and Boyle would be a solid addition to their forward group and likely a better option than any other Maple Leaf. Boyle has always seemed interested in heading back to Tampa Bay in the offseason though, where his wife and newborn baby still reside. Other than that, the free agents don’t hold much interest for the young Golden Knight franchise.
The team doesn’t have to worry about any no-movement clauses, as Horton’s is the only one held by players under contract. Because of his degenerative back injury that will keep him from playing ever again, he was included on the list of injury-exempt players alongside the man who was traded for him, David Clarkson.
It’s interesting to note that while Nathan Horton appears on the exempt list due to injury, Joffrey Lupul does not. Lupul hasn’t played in the NHL since partway through the 2015-16 season but maintains that he would like to play again at some point. He’s under contract for another year, and seems no closer to seeing the ice in Toronto as the day he was banished to “Robidas Island”, a fictional place that Lamoriello sends players he no longer wants to be around the team due to their “injury”.
Projected Protection List
F Nazem Kadri
F James van Riemsdyk
F Tyler Bozak
F Leo Komarov
F Matt Martin
F Connor Brown
F Kerby Rychel
D Morgan Rielly
D Jake Gardiner
D Connor Carrick
Toronto isn’t in bad shape when it comes to the draft, but there has been chatter since he was acquired that the team has already worked out a deal with Vegas to take Fehr off their hands. Though he’s hardly expensive, his $2MM cap-hit could be better spent by the Maple Leafs who will have bonus overages to deal with this summer. Remember, that even though Lupul and Horton’s cap-hits can be put on long-term injured reserve and not count towards the cap during the season, they do affect it during the summer. A team can only go over the cap by 10% at any time during the offseason, making the Leafs’ salary cap situation tighter than you’d think.
The Maple Leafs have also been rumored in relation to basically every defenseman that may be on the market this summer, and though it’s most likely they would wait until after the expansion draft to acquire one the possibility does still exist that they’d snatch one up off a team with protection issues going into the draft. Either way, they’ll be a team to watch over the next few weeks as they’re bound to be involved in many of the trade talks.
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