Expansion Primer: Dallas Stars

Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Dallas Stars enter the offseason with more questions than answers. Failing to make the playoffs caused consternation in a season where the team was expected to compete. But unlike some teams, the Dallas Stars do not have to worry about losing a significant piece in the expansion draft. The Stars are one of a few teams that will be relatively unaffected by the expansion draft, though some may see that as indicative of a team lacking quality depth.

Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza, and recently acquired goaltender Ben Bishop all have NMCs that mandate protection, and outside of Tyler Seguin, represent Dallas’s best players. Rather, the Dallas Stars may be hoping for some salary relief—though they are not in imminent cap trouble—if the Vegas Golden Knights take one of Dallas’s remaining goaltenders.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jamie Benn (NMC), Jason Spezza (NMC), Tyler Seguin, Cody Eakin, Antoine Roussel, Curtis McKenzie, Adam Cracknell, Brett Ritchie, Radek Faksa, Valeri Nichushkin, Justin Dowling, Gemel Smith, Mark McNeill, Matej Stransky

Defense
John Klingberg, Dan Hamhuis, Greg Pateryn, Stephen Johns, Esa Lindell, Patrik Nemeth, Jamie Oleksiak, Andrew Bodnarchuk, Mattias Backman, Ludwig Bystrom, Justin Hache, Nick Ebert

Goaltender
Ben Bishop (NMC), Kari Lehtonen, Antti Niemi, Maxime Lagace, Henri Kiviaho

Notable Exemptions

Devin Shore, Mattias Janmark, Julius Honka, John Nyberg

Key Decisions

As noted above, the Dallas Stars are relatively safe in the upcoming expansion draft. The team is able to protect all of its stars, average producers, and promising young prospects. Any question or controversy arising from who the Stars protect will lie with which mid-20s quasi-prospect the team decided to protect.

Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza—second and third in scoring respectively—have NMCs and must be protected per the expansion draft rules. Neither player poses a burden for the team, so those protections are uncontroversial. Dallas will also protect its leading scorer Tyler Seguin, so its top-three are safe.

Whether Dallas chooses to protect 7F / 3D / 1G or 8FD / 1G will depend on how Dallas values players like Curtis McKenzie and Adam Cracknell over Dan Hamhuis and RFA defensive prospects. The Stars will expose at least one young RFA defenseman along the lines of  a Patrick Nemeth or a Jamie Oleksiak. Given that Dallas isn’t in a bind to protect certain players, expect the team to choose the 7F / 3D /1G to maximize its protectable assets. Protecting an additional defenseman or forward at the expense of two extra protection slots does not make much sense for this team.

Goaltending-wise, the Stars are set. They have to protect Ben Bishop, and leave exposed contractual burdens Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen. Rather than worry about losing a skilled goaltender, the Stars may hope that the Golden Knights select one of Dallas’s goalies. Right now the Stars will probably have to buy out either Niemi or Lehtonen, so losing one to the draft would save the Stars buyout money and some cap space.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F / 3D / 1G

Forwards
Jamie Benn (NMC)
Jason Spezza (NMC)
Tyler Seguin
Cody Eakin
Antoine Roussel
Radek Faksa
Valeri Nichushkin

Defensemen
John Klingberg
Stephen Johns
Esa Lindell

Goaltender
Ben Bishop (NMC)

For the forwards, Dallas should protect Nichuskin over Brett Ritchie just to see what they have in the Russian forward. On defense, the Stars will hem and haw between protecting Johns over Hamhuis. The Stars would have statistical support to believe that Hamhuis may be nearing the end of his career. The rugged defenseman turns 35, played less than 20min a night for the first time in his career, and scored only 16 points last season. If the Stars are still high on Johns then they will expose Hamhuis this summer.

All in all, Dallas enters the expansion draft with little issue. They will not lose a significant piece or highly-regarded prospect. Rather, they may come out ahead by gaining some cap and salary relief.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images