With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.
Ondrej Pavelec entered the league with much fanfare, but never developed into an elite goaltender. He’s had sparks of success—including 2014-15 where he posted a 2.28 GAA and a .920 SV%—but he’s regressed that past two years to a borderline AHL goaltender. Maybe Pavelec needs a change of scenery to reboot his career, but his current stats do not provide much optimism for increased performance.
Contract
Pavelec is in the final year of an escalating base salary deal averaging $3.9MM a year. He will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.
2016-17
Bumpy is the best way to describe Pavelec’s season so far. In a surprisingly but not entirely shocking move, the Winnipeg Jets sent Pavelec down to the AHL’s Manitoba Moose to start the season. The Czech goaltender stayed in the AHL until Winnipeg finally called him back up on January 16th. He’s been the team’s starter ever since, but his numbers leave Winnipeg wanting more. Through his eight starts this season Pavelec has an .888 SV% and a 3.55 GAA. Unfortunately for Winnipeg, however, its other two goaltenders—Connor Hellebuyck and Michael Hutchinson—aren’t faring much better.
Season Stats
NHL: 8 GP, 4-4-0, .888 SV%, 3.55 GAA, 0 SO
AHL: 18 GP, 8-7-2, .917 SV%, 2.78 GAA, 0 SO
Suitors
Any potential suitors for Pavelec are ones in the market for cheap goaltending insurance. Whatever potential Pavelec may have harbored over the past two years is almost surely gone, and GMs see Pavelec’s current stats as indicative of his future performance. Nonetheless, one only has to look at Devan Dubnyk’s resurgence for hope that Pavelec turns it around elsewhere. Written off after underperforming in Edmonton and Arizona, Dubnyk joined the Minnesota Wild and immediately became one of the league’s best goaltenders.
Pavelec is a pending UFA which should ease the risk for teams looking for goaltending services. Teams will not be on the hook for Pavelec after this year, and the allure of goaltender insurance is strong. GMs know that losing your starting goaltender spells disaster for a team’s chances at a deep playoff run, so a cheap insurance option may appeal to some.
Likelihood Of A Trade
The goalie market is stagnant. Ben Bishop, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Jimmy Howard all remain with their teams, and those dominos have to fall one way or another before teams take a flyer on Pavelec. Pavelec could be the cheaper option for most teams, but it’s unclear whether his play will improve this season. The Jets may have to bite the bullet and accept anything they can get for Pavelec before they lose him to free agency.
You know, I’ve been thinking about this for a bit but I’m really surprised more teams with little cap room aren’t actively trying to trade for expiring contracts like they do in the NBA. Pavelec would be a prime target in that type of scenario. The Jets have obviously wanted him gone for a while so I doubt they’d be too picky on a return.
For instance, if I were Tampa Bay, I’d see if the Jets would be interested in a Jason Garrison or Braydon Coburn for Pavelec swap. I don’t know if the Jets would take it or if they even should but it’s just surprising that this avenue isn’t explored more often by teams up against the cap, especially if they’re struggling for a playoff spot.
I like what you’re saying, 1) from the standpoint of a Jets fan who’s had to watch Pav roll and flop around like a 14 year old who just watched a Hasek highlight compilation, since the team got here, 2) because it would be nice to get something/anything for him and not lose a player for nothing. Especially if they can gain somewhere that they really need the help. But I think the Jets are too committed to the youth movement to consider shipping anyone (Pav, Perrault, Stafford are the most likely) for a veteran player. Even if that player is someone like a Coburn/Garrison who would help the team on the back-end where it is very very desperately needed.
It just makes too much sense in my opinion. Jets get something for an asset they don’t really want and the Bolts get much needed cap space for their several upcoming RFA’s.
I like his athleticism from what I saw a couple of seasons ago, but his game really looks kind of “in between” to me, where he seems not sure whether to play positionally or just read and react. I don’t get that whole Jets team, actually. They should be so much better. They can play heavy, and they can score too. Plus, they’ve changed up players all over the lineup in recent years, but the results are always the same – crappy. I can’t stand Paul Maurice (he was terrible when he coached the team I cheer for), so I’m inclined to blame him. Like so many players on the Jets, Pavelec seems like a guy who would play better somewhere else.