It’s often said that NHL GMs are liable to throw an anvil to a struggling NHL team instead of a life preserver.
Joe Sakic probably knows that better than anyone. The Colorado Avalanche GM is taking calls on several key players on his team, including Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie, and Jarome Iginla.
TSN Insider Darren Dreger appeared on Montreal radio on Tuesday morning, and offered some insight on what he believes Sakic is thinking. Many insiders have suggested that Sakic will only make a trade if it’s clear why.
Dreger wondered if “they’re better off to just hold tight and see where they’re at on March 1 or around March 1. If they’re still a 30th-place team at that point, then I think it becomes abundantly obvious… that they’re playing for the draft.”
However, Dreger suggests that if a team offers “what [the Avalanche] might need in a collection of draft picks or young prospects, why wouldn’t you consider trading Duchene?”
The two players who have keyed in the most trade discussions are Duchene and Landeskog. Dreger mentioned that there was a potential deal involving Landeskog for a defenseman around the draft lottery in April, but that talk died down. It was widely believed that said defenseman was Jacob Trouba. Now, Dreger believes that Sakic is “more inclined” to trade Duchene instead of Landeskog, saying he doesn’t “believe that Sakic really wants to move him.”
Duchene will likely have more value than Landeskog, as a speedy first-line center who is a proven point-producer. He’s also appeared on Team Canada at the last two best-on-best tournaments. In addition, the Avalanche have 2013 first-overall-pick Nathan MacKinnon as a built-in replacement for Duchene. That’s not to say Landeskog doesn’t have characteristics (big, tough, point-producing winger) that would be popular among NHL GMs, but Duchene would definitely fetch a pretty price for the Avalanche, who clearly need to make some serious changes.
The Landeskog vs Duchene trade debate is quite interesting. Both offer different intangibles that are valuable to different teams. Both have plateaued a bit in terms of offensive production, hovering around 55 points over the past 2 seasons though Landeskog’s offense has taken a huge hit this year(32 point pace) while Duchene’s maintained a 57 point pace.
Contract-wise, Landeskog’s more valuable. He has 4 years left at a $5.57 million cap hit vs Duchene’s $6 million cap hit for just 2 years. Landeskog is also almost 2 full years younger and isn’t as reliant on speed as Duchene(one of the first skills to erode with age).
Defensively, Landeskog is likely viewed as a far superior player though Duchene’s emergence as an elite faceoff threat closes the gap significantly.
I’d likely value Landeskog more if I were running a team simply due to his contract, age and similar offensive production. But centres are generally more in demand than wingers so I definitely see the logic in shopping Duchene to centre needy teams like Montreal, Ottawa, NY Rangers, etc.
Duchene makes more sense for a team like Boston. While Boston doesn’t necessarily have a need at center, Duchene can also play wing if necessary. Boston is in desperate need of another goal scorer & Duchene would fit that bill. Duchene would also be a good fit for a team like Carolina who has plenty of young defensive depth, but lacks the talent up front. Landeskog would make sense for a team that is looking to add some additional grit to there team.
The issue I see from Boston is do they have the same urgency to add Duchene that a centre needy team like Montreal has? Surely the Avs would ask for Brandon Carlo in return but I can’t see the B’s being willing to do that. Their best prospect is Jakub Zboril and he’s very solid and a likely future top 4 defender but with an aging defensive corps, again, would the B’s want to part with him? One of those two would likely have to be a headliner, especially if a team like Montreal made Sergachev available(among others).
For Carolina, I’m not sure the timeframe fits. They have a great young defensive unit but are still likely 2-3 years away from real contention. With Duchene’s contract set to expire just after all but Aho’s ELC expire, it leaves very little future cap to retain Duchene as well as their young core.
Nathan beaulieu prospects/picks at the deadline to montreal for Duchene. The habs still need a top 6 forward
Don’t understand the idea that they should wait until March 1. So what, they can perhaps claw out of the basement in the meantime and put themselves in a worse draft position? They’re 12-24, and something like 3-15 in their last 18, it’s not like they’re starting to play better and could maybe make a playoff run; they’re toast. They should be thinking about the draft right now.