After giving us their opening Stanley Cup odds last week, Las Vegas odds-maker Bovada was back at it again today, releasing their over/under for each NHL team’s total points in the upcoming season. Not included on the list (below) are the Dallas Stars, who were left off the board by the odds-makers until more information is available regarding the injury to Tyler Seguin. The Stars are an unpredictable pick at this point regardless, as both Seguin and Jamie Benn are banged up, Valeri Nichushkin is suddenly gone, and the defense is still a risk following the departure of three starters.
While the points projections generally mirror the Stanley Cup odds, Bovada has certainly predicted some interesting scenarios. Despite having the highest Cup odds in the East, the Penguins are again expected to finish behind the Capitals in the Metropolitan Division. On second thought though, a slow start to the regular season for the defending champs would not be much of a surprise, nor would another postseason collapse for Washington. Elsewhere in the division, the Islanders and Rangers are projected to be in a dead heat for that final divisional seed, with the loser slipping into a wild card spot. Staying in the East, they see the Canadiens and a healthy Carey Price skyrocketing from their 82 point finish a year ago to 96.5 points in 2016-17, with the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators taking a corresponding dip in the standings. Out West, the battles atop each division promise to be similarly tight as they were last season, but the projected jump by Calgary and Edmonton of 10+ points from bottom dwellers to playoff contenders may be a story to watch. The good news for Vancouver Canucks fans is that they’re expected to finish with more points this season than last. The bad news? It will be good enough for last place in the league.
The easiest over to take out of this group is likely the St. Louis Blues. Although they lost captain David Backes and have to see if Jake Allen can handle his bigger workload in net, the Blues are set at 101.5 points, a mark they have beaten easily in each of the past three seasons. The Ottawa Senators are another good over, as they have hardly changed their roster this summer and finished with 85 points last year and more than that the two years prior. Their 80.5 line seems unwarranted unless you believe the rest of the Atlantic Division is in for a big year. That seems unlikely, especially when it comes to the aforementioned Canadiens, who are an easy under. Yes, the loss of Price for much of 2015-16 hurt the Canadiens, but they also had a lot of trouble scoring goals as well. The effects of the trade-off between P.K. Subban and Lars Eller for Shea Weber, Andrew Shaw, and Alexander Radulov have yet to be seen, but one would think that it’s not enough to justify a 14 or 15 point increase in points. The Oilers, somewhat obviously, are also a good choice for an under. If this many seasons of “this is the year” followed by a lottery pick haven’t tempered your expectations of Edmonton yet, nothing will. Even if they do finally improve in 2016-17, will it really be to a high-80’s point total? Doubtful.
Washington Capitals 107.5 points
Tampa Bay Lightning 106.5 points
Pittsburgh Penguins 103.5 points
Chicago Blackhawks 102.5 points
St. Louis Blues 101.5 points
San Jose Sharks 100.5 points
Los Angeles Kings 99.5 points
Anaheim Ducks 98.5 points
Florida Panthers 98.5 points
Nashville Predators 98.5 points
Montreal Canadiens 96.5 points
New York Islanders 95.5 points
New York Rangers 95.5 points
Minnesota Wild 94.5 points
Boston Bruins 92.5 points
Detroit Red Wings 90.5 points
Philadelphia Flyers 89.5 points
Calgary Flames 87.5 points
Edmonton Oilers 87.5 points
Winnipeg Jets 87.5 points
Colorado Avalanche 86.5 points
Columbus Blue Jackets 84.5 points
Buffalo Sabres 83.5 points
New Jersey Devils 82.5 points
Ottawa Senators 80.5 points
Toronto Maple Leafs 80.5 points
Carolina Hurricanes 78.5 points
Arizona Coyotes 76.5 points
Vancouver Canucks 76.5 points