Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Winnipeg Jets
Current Cap Hit: $81,720,357 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Ville Heinola (one year, $863K)
F Cole Perfetti (one year, $894K)
Potential Bonuses
Heinola: $425K
Perfetti: $850K
Total: $1.275MM
Last season was Perfetti’s first full year at the NHL level and it was going along well in the first half of the season, spending a fair bit of time in the top six while collecting 30 points in 51 games. However, an upper-body injury ended his season early. After only playing 18 games in his first year, there probably isn’t enough of a track record for a long-term agreement. But if he returns and stays in that role, a short-term bridge deal in the $2MM range should be doable. Perfetti’s bonuses are of the Class A variety (tied to specific thresholds). Had he stayed healthy, he probably would have reached one of those last season and if he takes a step forward, two or three could be legitimate possibilities which will be notable for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff to keep in mind.
Heinola is a victim of Winnipeg’s depth chart as his performance with AHL Manitoba has demonstrated that he’s worthy of a longer-term look with the Jets. That chance doesn’t appear to be coming at the moment although a trade or two can certainly change things. Having said that, unless he’s on the roster and in the lineup regularly, he’s unlikely to reach his two ‘A’ bonuses and will almost certainly be heading for a short-term second contract.
Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level
G Laurent Brossoit ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Kyle Capobianco ($762.5K, RFA)
D Declan Chisholm ($775K, RFA)
D Dylan DeMelo ($3MM, UFA)
D Brenden Dillon ($3.9MM, UFA)
F David Gustafsson ($775K, RFA)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($6.167MM, UFA)
F Nino Niederreiter ($4MM, UFA)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.125MM, UFA)
D Logan Stanley ($1MM, RFA)
Scheifele’s future with the Jets has been in question for a while now and wasn’t resolved over the summer either by trade or extension. While he doesn’t produce a point per game most seasons, he’s still a number one option for Winnipeg and would be for several other teams. Accordingly, he’s well-positioned to earn an extra couple million per season at a minimum. Whether that’s from Winnipeg or another team remains to be seen.
Niederreiter was a victim of the down market in 2022 when he signed this deal with Nashville (who flipped him to Winnipeg near the trade deadline). He has reached the 20-goal mark in the last three seasons and if he can make it four, he might have a shot at doing a little better than this next summer. But as a winger best suited for the middle six, his earnings upside is going to be limited. Gustavsson had a very limited role last season and while he played in a career-best 46 games, he didn’t do much to push for a spot higher in the lineup. Unless that changes, his next contract should be below the $1MM mark even with arbitration rights.
Dillon has been a capable piece on the second pairing for the past two seasons after being acquired from San Jose. Offense is hard to come by but as a defender who can kill penalties, block shots, and play physical, there should still be a market for him next summer. It’d be surprising to see him command a big raise at 33 but a multi-year deal in this price range should be doable. DeMelo has shown that he can be more than a full-time third-pairing option but beyond last season, points have been hard to come by. Being a right-shot option helps but again, a big pay jump doesn’t seem likely; instead, another multi-year deal close to this point makes more sense.
Stanley had a hard time locking down a regular spot in the lineup last season, leading to a trade request that appears to have since been rescinded. But with their depth chart, playing time is still going to be hard to come by. He’ll basically need to keep going year-to-year until that changes for him either with the Jets or another organization. Capobianco and Chisholm will be battling for one spot on the roster. Capobianco held it last year but didn’t play much while Chisholm is waiver-eligible for the first time. Capobianco is likely to stay close to the minimum salary being a bit older while Chisholm will need to carve out a spot in the lineup to be able to get any sort of significant raise next summer.
Hellebuyck’s situation is well-known by now. After the season, it didn’t appear as if he was interested in signing a long-term extension to stay in Winnipeg, fueling trade speculation. However, a reported asking price of $9.5MM on a new contract cooled that speculation pretty quickly. Even though he’s among the higher-paid starters already, he’s still underpaid relative to the value he brings to the Jets. A true starter capable of carrying one of the heaviest workloads in the NHL, Hellebuyck has done a lot to keep Winnipeg in the playoff picture over the years. But he’ll be 31 when his next contract begins, making a max-term agreement a bit less palatable, particularly at his desired price point.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Mason Appleton ($2.167MM, UFA)
F Morgan Barron ($1.35MM, RFA)
F Nikolaj Ehlers ($6MM, UFA)
F Axel Jonsson-Fjallby ($775K, UFA)
F Rasmus Kupari ($1MM, RFA)
F Alex Iafallo ($4MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2MM, UFA)
D Neal Pionk ($5.875MM, UFA)
D Dylan Samberg ($1.4MM, RFA)
D Nate Schmidt ($5.95MM, UFA)
F Gabriel Vilardi ($3.438MM, RFA)
Ehlers, when healthy, has been a top-line producer in recent years. However, staying healthy has been a challenge for him over the past three seasons. If he can stay healthy over the next couple of years, he’ll still be well-positioned for a decent-sized raise but if the injury issues continue, it will certainly hurt his market. Iafallo comes over from Los Angeles in the Pierre-Luc Dubois swap and is in a similar situation as Niederreiter – a middle-six winger who can be moved around the lineup. However, Iafallo’s scoring touch is a bit more limited which, if not bolstered by the change of scenery, might limit him to a contract similar to this one in 2025, not a more lucrative pact.
Let’s stick with pieces acquired in the Dubois swap. Vilardi was the headliner of that trade, a 24-year-old who has played center in the past and is coming off a 23-goal campaign despite missing 19 games. This contract basically amounts to a second bridge deal to see if there’s another gear to get to or if he’ll settle in closer to the offensive range of Iafallo and Niederreiter. Obviously, whichever outcome he winds up at will go a long way toward determining his next deal but it’s worth noting he’ll have a $3.6MM qualifier. Kupari was the other player involved in the swap, another former first-round pick but he has been limited in the NHL so far. He’ll need to at least grab a hold of a third-line spot over the next two seasons to position himself considerably more than his $1.1MM qualifier.
Appleton hasn’t been able to match his output in 2020-21 although he had a chance to do so last year had he stayed healthy. His production is at the level of a third-liner which is in line with his salary although he plays a bit more than a typical bottom-six forward. He’ll need to improve his output to have a shot at cracking the $3MM mark on his next deal. Namestnikov has bounced around lately (eight teams over the last six seasons) and his market value has hovered in this range for the last few years. Barring any big improvements or injuries, his next one should be in this area as well. Barron’s first full NHL campaign was a decent one and this is a traditional bridge contract to better assess his future. Jonsson-Fjallby, meanwhile, was on waivers twice last season and will simply be looking to lock down a full-time roster spot.
On the back end, Schmidt was acquired for relatively cheap at the time with Vancouver looking to clear some cap space. His first season with them was good but he took a step back last year. If he’s going to be more of a fourth option moving forward, this will be a negative-value deal for them. Pionk has also had some ups and downs in his three seasons in Winnipeg. He hasn’t matched his per-game output from his first year with them but has settled in nicely as a second or third option most nights. If his ten-goal total from last season is repeatable, he’ll be in good shape for another jump in 2025. Samberg was a regular most nights in 2022-23, albeit in a limited role. Like Barron and Kupari, this is a true bridge agreement; he’ll be looking to get into a top-four spot where he’ll be better-positioned for a significant raise.
Signed Through 2025-26
F Kyle Connor ($7.143MM, UFA)
F Adam Lowry ($3.25MM, UFA)
Connor has somewhat quietly averaged more than a point per game over the last four seasons combined with the last two being particularly impressive, including a 47-goal showing in 2021-22. He’ll be 29 when he signs his next contract and even if his output remains at the 80-point mark it was a year ago, Connor should be in a good spot to get a max-term agreement and another couple million on that pact. Lowry, the newly-named captain, is on a contract that’s a bit high for a third-liner but he was a bit more productive last season, notching 36 points. If he can stay around that mark, they’ll do fine with this contract.
Winnipeg Jets Sign Declan Chisholm
The Winnipeg Jets have announced a one-year, two-way contract for defenseman Declan Chisholm. The deal will pay Chisholm a total of $775K at the NHL level and will be the second professional contract of his career after being drafted by the Jets in the fifth round of the 2018 NHL Draft.
For the most part, Chisholm spent much of his entry-level contract with Winnipeg’s AHL affiliate, the Manitoba Moose. Over the last two years in the AHL, although a bit limited due to injuries, Chisholm was not only one of the highest-scoring defensemen on the Moose but one of the highest-scoring players overall.
In those two seasons, over 112 regular season games, Chisholm had 14 goals and 59 assists but also carried a -12 rating. Given the current depth of their defensive core at the time being, it’s most realistic that Chisholm once again starts the year in Manitoba, but he could be an exciting call-up option in the case of injury.
Based on how the regular season goes in Winnipeg, the team will have two expiring contracts on their blue line in Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo, and they both could be moved by the trade deadline. However, given that he excels in moving the puck and still needs a bit of improvement to his defensive assets, Chisholm likely will not replace either of those two in the lineup. Nevertheless, given his play in the minor leagues, Chisholm should see more playing time at the NHL level this season.
Adam Lowry Named Winnipeg Jets Captain
A second Canadian franchise has named a player captain in just as many days. After the Vancouver Canucks named star defenseman Quinn Hughes as their next captain, the Winnipeg Jets have followed up with their own choice, tapping center Adam Lowry to wear the “C.”
Lowry is the Jets’ third captain since the club relocated to Winnipeg from Atlanta. The previous captains were Andrew Ladd, who officially retired on Sunday, and Blake Wheeler, who was stripped of the captaincy before the 2022-23 season.
Lowry isn’t exactly a surprising choice for the role, as although the Jets have bigger-name star players on their roster, Lowry has long been recognized for exemplary leadership skills.
The 30-year-old veteran forward has been a captain before in his career, leading the WHL’s Swift Current Broncos during the 2012-13 season.
Before this past year, Lowry’s on-ice production may not have been exactly what one would expect for a player set to take on the prominent role of captaining a team in a high-pressure Canadian market. Bottom-six players typically don’t have a ton of staying power on their teams, and change clubs with more frequency than higher-scoring stars.
But this past season was the best of Lowry’s career, one that cemented his place in Winnipeg for years to come. He scored 13 goals and 36 points in the regular season and five points in five playoff games.
Lowry is under contract through the 2025-26 season, and seeing as he’s only played for the Jets so far, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play his entire NHL career in Winnipeg. It’s also worth noting is also that Lowry is a second-generation NHL captain. Lowry’s father, Dave Lowry, captained the Calgary Flames from 2000 to 2002.
With significant uncertainty facing the Jets due to the looming expiration of contracts for franchise netminder Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele, this is an extremely important season for the club to make a strong competitive push.
Now, today’s announcement confirms that Lowry’s leadership will take a central role in any competitive push the team makes.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Could A Short-Term Extension Work For Connor Hellebuyck?
When word surfaced this summer that Connor Hellebuyck was hoping for a long-term deal worth around $9.5MM per season, trade speculation cooled sharply. To that end, Murat Ates of The Athletic speculates (subscription link) that the Jets could shift focus and look to try to extend the netminder on a short-term contract. Since Winnipeg’s books are relatively clean for 2024-25, they could theoretically make an offer around that range in the hopes that they could entice him to stick around for at least another year or two. That would allow Hellebuyck to get the top dollar that he’s seeking while extending Winnipeg’s current window, one that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff believes his team can contend in. If a long-term deal at that price point can’t be done, this could be the next best option.
Kristian Reichel Changes Agents
- Jets prospect Kristian Reichel has changed agencies, joining Octagon per an announcement on Twitter from agent Allan Walsh. The 25-year-old is entering the final season of a two-year, two-way contract and will be a restricted free agent this summer. Last season, Reichel spent most of the season in the minors, picking up 24 points in 61 games. He did get into a pair of games with Winnipeg, however, and has 15 career appearances at the top level over the past two seasons.
Cheveldayoff Plans To Resume Talks With Scheifele And Hellebuyck At Camp
The futures of Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele with the Jets has been a source of speculation all summer with no extensions in place as they enter the final year of their contracts. GM Kevin Cheveldayoff told Pierre LeBrun and Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription link) that he plans to meet with both players once training camp gets underway to continue talks on a new deal. After trading Pierre-Luc Dubois and buying out Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg’s roster looks a bit weaker on paper heading into the season but having Hellebuyck and Scheifele around would certainly help their chances of making the playoffs. At this point, they’re expected to be on the roster when the regular season starts whether or not an extension is in place.
Winnipeg Jets To Be Patient With Connor Hellebuyck And Mark Scheifele
Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele have been in trade rumors all summer long. And Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe says that training camp isn’t putting any pressure on the Winnipeg Jets to find a deal. Wiebe says that the Jets don’t want to make a rash decision regarding their top center and goaltender, especially following the trading of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Scheifele’s former number-two, to the Los Angeles Kings.
Instead, Wiebe expects both Scheifele and Hellebuyck to attend training camp, where reporters and fans should be able to get a much better sense of what path forward the players may prefer. The team remains open to both trades and possible contract extensions, although the price of either option would be steep. How the Jets handle Hellebuyck and Scheifele’s situation will be very interesting to follow, as it could be a strong indicator of the team’s goals over the next few years.
And while Hellebuyck has been a stone wall in net, Scheifele has been the team’s goal-scorer. He netted 42 goals in 81 games last season, his first time breaking the 40-goal mark. He’s reached 272 career goals, all coming with the Jets, placing him just 56 goals behind Ilya Kovalchuk‘s franchise goal-scoring record. Scheifele also ranks second in all-time franchise scoring, with 645 career points. While the Jets have tended to spread around their ice time, Scheifele continues to operate confidently as the team’s top-line center.
The Winnipeg Jets aren’t necessarily up against the cap but keeping around a Vezina-caliber starter and 40-goal-scoring top-line center beyond this season will undoubtedly come at a rich price. For a team with a lot of questions looming, decisions around Hellebuyck and Scheifele will be telling.
Winnipeg Jets Announce ECHL Affiliation With Norfolk Admirals
The Winnipeg Jets have signed a new affiliation agreement with the Norfolk Admirals of the ECHL for the 2023-24 season, according to a team release.
Winnipeg hasn’t had a full-time ECHL affiliate since the 2020-21 season, the last of a four-year partnership with the Jacksonville Icemen. The last two seasons were their first without an ECHL affiliate since the franchise’s inaugural season in Winnipeg in 2011-12.
The Admirals had spent the last two seasons affiliated with the Carolina Hurricanes and the AHL’s Chicago Wolves. The agreement ended this summer, with the Wolves franchise choosing to operate independently of an NHL parent club.
This Norfolk franchise is not the same one some hockey fans will remember from the 2000s and early 2010s. That team played in the AHL from 2000 to 2015, after which they relocated to San Diego to become the Gulls, the current top affiliate of the Anaheim Ducks. The current iteration of the Admirals began in 2015, relocating from Bakersfield to continue playing in the ECHL.
It’s been an extremely tough stretch for the Admirals since relocating, however. They’ve finished well below the .500 mark every season since their inception and are still looking for their first playoff appearance.
They haven’t even cracked the 30-win mark since their inaugural 2015-16 season, but that’s something the Admirals are hoping to change by signing on with the Jets. Admirals general manager and head coach Jeff Carr gave the following statement:
Last year, our organization made a concerted, positive transformation to our on and off-ice product that our incredible city and fanbase has been desperate for. This affiliation helps us build a solid base as we continue to ascend in our new culture. Winnipeg’s dedication to winning and development is no secret in the hockey world. With the depth that Winnipeg has and their view on development, they’re going to be very involved with our roster. We both felt joining forces together with the goals of character, winning, and development outweighed any obstacle of geographical distance.
It certainly will be a haul for any player shuttling between Norfolk and the AHL’s Manitoba Moose. The cities of Winnipeg and Norfolk are separated by a straight-line distance of 1,375 miles and separated by an indirect commercial flight of at least five hours. While most NHL teams have brought their AHL affiliates closer to home over the past decade, it’s still somewhat common for ECHL affiliates to be more than halfway across the continent from their NHL (or AHL) parents.
One player in the Jets organization set to be impacted considerably by this move is goalie prospect Thomas Milic, The Athletic’s Murat Ates notes. Winnipeg’s fifth-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft is set to return to his final season of major junior hockey with the WHL’s Seattle Thunderbirds in 2023-24 but is a likely candidate for a starting role in the ECHL when he does turn pro. The 20-year-old netminder earned his draft selection after being passed over twice, thanks to winning a gold medal with Canada at the World Juniors and a WHL championship with Seattle last season.
Logan Stanley No Longer Looking For Trade After Re-Signing
- Despite reportedly requesting a trade earlier this year, Winnipeg Jets defenseman Logan Stanley told the Jets’ Jamie Thomas he’s “happy with how [negotiations] went” on his new one-year contract with Winnipeg and looks forward to training camp next month. Stanley alluded to his series of injuries last season, which limited him to 19 games, making it hard to get along with new head coach Rick Bowness, whom Stanley said he’ll speak to in the near future after signing his extension. It’ll be tough for Stanley to break into the lineup every game, however, especially after the Jets signed breakout defender Dylan Samberg to a longer, richer contract earlier in the summer.
Extension Candidate: Mark Scheifele
The Winnipeg Jets are approaching a potentially franchise-altering season. Two of the organization’s key players, former Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck and team number-one center Mark Scheifele are each on expiring contracts that stand to walk them straight to the unrestricted free agent market next summer.
The Jets are intent on remaining competitive with key players such as Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey, Nikolaj Ehlers, and recent acquisition Gabriel Vilardi still on their roster. So it stands to reason that the team would be interested in retaining Scheifele, the player with the most goals in Jets history since they arrived from Atlanta.
But seeing as his name has come up in trade rumors this summer, it’s also a very real possibility that he ends up on a different team next season. A poor campaign by Winnipeg could finally catalyze the type of re-tool that seems off the table at this current moment entering 2023-24.
The likeliest scenario that would result in Winnipeg engaging in serious discussions about a long-term contract with Scheifele next season would be if the team sprints out of the gate at the start of the regular season and looks like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
If that ends up happening, the Jets finding a way to retain their number-one center would likely become an organizational top priority. Should the Jets make a determined effort to extend Scheifele — assuming they haven’t already — what might that contract look like?
2022-23
For quite a while now, the question of Scheifele’s true on-ice value has been a hotly debated one. He’s a divisive player, and that’s not even a reference to the vicious hit he laid on an unsuspecting Jake Evans during the 2021 playoffs — one that got him suspended for the team’s final three games as well as Winnipeg’s season-opener the following campaign — but rather a reference to the way in which Scheifele approaches the game.
Scheifele places a premium on offensive creation and offensive production, something that is certainly admirable, but often comes at the detriment of his all-around value. His fixation on always maximizing his and his linemates’ offensive production has made him something of a lightning rod for criticism as the Jets franchise has declined since their 2018 run to the Western Conference Final.
Scheifele’s approach to the game has at times attracted harsh criticism from those who would like to see him take a more committed approach to the defensive side of the game. A lot is typically asked of elite centers in the NHL, and nothing Scheifele has shown in recent seasons has suggested he is able to capably manage the sort of defensive commitment many coaches want to see out of top pivots. Jets coach Rick Bowness even appeared to show some frustration at Scheifele during last season, per The Athletic’s Murat Ates, suggesting that many fans’ frustration with Scheifele’s offensive focus could be shared, to a certain extent, by figures within the Jets organization.
But on the flip side of those negatives is the undeniable reality that Scheifele is among the most offensively gifted centers in the NHL. He scored a career-high 42 goals last season and has frequently been an at-or-above point-per-game scorer. He’s a two-time NHL All-Star and has even been productive in the playoffs, with 32 points in 37 career games. He undoubtedly has the numbers of a true first-line center, and first-line centers are extremely rare. But then the question becomes, he has number-one center numbers, but does he play like one?
Statistics
2022-23: 81 GP, 42 G, 26 A, 68 pts, -16 rating, 43 PIMs, 206 shots, 20:29 ATOI, 58.5% CF
Career: 723 GP, 272 G, 373 A, 645 pts, +46 rating, 303 PIMs, 1,620 shots, 19:59 ATOI, 55.7% CF
The Market
Centers who put up the kind of numbers Scheifele has throughout his career don’t come cheap. While Scheifele is undoubtedly a cut below the dynamic, league-defining centers such as Nathan MacKinnon that are at the top of the financial leaderboard, he nonetheless has the profile of a player who merits a franchise-defining contract.
It’s very rare for a point-per-game top-line center to hit the open market, and while it’s certainly up for debate if Scheifele truly fits that mold, he’d certainly end up the best center on the open market assuming both Auston Matthews and Steven Stamkos re-sign with their current clubs.
That would likely aid Scheifele significantly should he be seeking the highest AAV mark possible on his next deal, as it’s probable that teams desperate for a true scoring center (such as the Boston Bruins, who lost David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron to retirement) would be ready to open their wallets for Scheifele.
The Jets have the sort of cap space to afford a hefty raise for Scheifele, in large part thanks to the nearly $7MM set to come off their books at the expiration of Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo‘s contracts. The team shifting to a cheaper goaltender should Hellebuyck depart could also make fitting a pricey Scheifele extension all that much easier for Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff.
Comparable Contracts
Dylan Larkin (Detroit Red Wings) – Detroit invested an $8.7MM AAV in Larkin’s next contract, and although Scheifele is three years older he has a decent argument to have earned more than that number. Scheifele has a more extensive track record of offensive production than Larkin, though Larkin’s defensive game certainly surpasses Scheifele’s. It’s also worth noting that Larkin was signing with his hometown team and the club he captains, and although Scheifele has spent his entire pro career with the Jets it’s unlikely he has ties as deep, long-lasting ties as Larkin had, the sort of ties that would make a player particularly motivated to re-sign.
Bo Horvat (New York Islanders) Horvat has posted numbers far below Scheifele’s career standards for much of his time in the NHL, and he earned an $8.5MM AAV from the New York Islanders. Horvat’s commitment to defense far surpasses Scheifele’s and he is two years younger. But NHL teams first and foremost pay for production when it comes to scoring forwards, and as a result, it’s difficult to imagine Scheifele earning less than Horvat on his next deal, at least on an average annual value basis.
Projected Contract
In our preview of the 2024 free agent class, we projected a $9.4MM AAV on Scheifele’s next contract, on a seven-year term. That’s certainly a fair number looking at Scheifele’s offensive production, but one wonders if teams would give pause to committing that kind of money to a player with Scheifele’s defensive warts now that he’s past the age of 30.
That being said, the type of bidding war that would be likely to take place should Scheifele hit the open market would almost undoubtedly see Scheifele offered a contract at that AAV, if not higher. Quite simply, centers of his caliber are among the rarest commodities in the NHL, and almost never hit unrestricted free agency.
If the Jets want to motivate Scheifele to forgo a likely highly lucrative trip to the free agent market, they’ll likely need to pony up, potentially giving him a maximum-term deal above the $10MM mark.
Similarly, for a team to prevail in what is likely to be a hotly contested battle for his signature in any potential Scheifele unrestricted free agency, they’ll likely need to cross that $10MM threshold as well.
It’s far from a given we reach that point since Scheifele still needs to have a productive 2023-24 season, but if he has another near or above-point-per-game season he could very well end up the star of next summer’s free agent frenzy. Though if he does, there will undoubtedly be quite a bit of debate over whether he truly merits the contract he’ll receive.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images