Examining An Upcoming Winnipeg Jets Roster Crunch
Despite seeing some high-profile players depart their franchise this offseason, including former captain Blake Wheeler and second-line center Pierre-Luc Dubois, the Winnipeg Jets have every intention of returning to the playoffs in 2023-24.
Although netminder Connor Hellebuyck‘s name has appeared in trade rumors this summer, he currently appears more likely than not to begin the season in Winnipeg, meaning head coach Rick Bowness and his staff will have an elite goaltender behind them as they begin another contention-oriented season.
One area the Jets may still have to resolve this offseason is their defense. As things currently stand, the Jets not only have a point-per-game blueliner in Josh Morrissey leading their group, they also boast some impressive depth. The Jets have ten defensemen under legitimate consideration for an NHL job in the fall, but are likely to only be able to staff seven or eight on their 23-man active roster.
This isn’t a situation for some of the Jets’ defensemen to worry about. Morrissey’s spot at the top of their lineup, for example, is assured. Seeing as they each make nearly $6MM annually on their contracts, Nate Schmidt and Neal Pionk are unlikely to go anywhere given how hard it is to move money in today’s flat-cap environment.
The two 2024 unrestricted free agents, veterans Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo, are each possible candidates to be moved in theory, but in reality are likely staying put.
Each played an important role in the Jets’ 2022-23 success and it’s likely that if the Jets had designs on trading one of those two veterans the deal would have been completed already.
That makes five slots on the roster already spoken for, leaving two or three roster spots left to be claimed.
In contention for those spots is 24-year-old Dylan Samberg, who broke into the NHL and played 63 games last season, six-foot-seven 2016 first-round pick Logan Stanley, AHL star Declan Chisholm, veteran Kyle Capobianco, and 2019 first-rounder Ville Heinola. At the outset, Samberg looks to be the overwhelming favorite to claim the sixth and final spot in Bowness’ opening-night lineup.
The Jets invested a second-round pick to draft Samberg in 2017 and he has developed at a steady rate since that point. He played three seasons of college hockey at the University of Minnesota-Duluth before turning pro in 2020-21.
He spent his rookie pro season as an AHL regular, the next year on the NHL/AHL bubble, and finally last season fully on the NHL roster. Samberg played as a penalty-killing specialist number-six defenseman last season, averaging just 14:55 TOI per game overall but 1:59 on the penalty kill, third-most among Jets blueliners.
With Samberg playing quite a bit short-handed the Jets had a top-ten penalty kill league-wide, so it stands to reason that the Jets would be interested in Samberg maintaining his regular role there in order to help ensure similar short-handed success next season. That leaves Heinola, Stanley, Capobianco, and Chisholm battling in training camp for one or two spots as a press box regular in Winnipeg.
That’s a position Capobianco, 25, occupied for all of last season. He only played in 14 games for Winnipeg but didn’t see a single minute in the AHL. He spent most of the season a healthy scratch, which suggests the Jets are more comfortable with a player like Capobianco regularly sitting out games than a higher-upside blueliner whose development the team may be more invested in. That could give Capobianco a leg up in retaining his NHL status for next season, though there are complicating factors.
One complicating factor is the presence of Stanley, a player who reportedly made a trade request back in March. Stanley’s requested trade has not materialized, and he could be in line to see his role on the Jets decline even further than it did in 2022-23. Stanley played 58 NHL games in 2021-22 but saw that number decline to just 19 this past season. Stanley hasn’t played in the AHL since 2019-20 and would need to clear waivers to be sent to the AHL’s Manitoba Moose.
As a player who offers rare size and has first-round pedigree, the Jets would not be blamed for hesitating to expose Stanley to waivers and risk losing him for nothing. But seeing as he has seemingly fallen out of favor in Winnipeg and may no longer be in their future plans, can the franchise justify Stanley claiming one of the NHL roster spots above another defenseman such as Heinola, Capobianco, or Chisholm?
Heinola remains waivers-exempt for another season, so despite headlines devoted to the player’s dissatisfaction with how scarce his chances to establish himself as an NHLer have been he remains the likeliest candidate to remain in the AHL to start another season.
Heinola is clearly an accomplished talent at that level (he scored 37 points in 48 games last season) but one wonders if yet another season playing AHL hockey is best for his development compared to being able to test himself against the fires of NHL competition.
Regardless, since Heinola is waivers-exempt it would in all likelihood take a trade or a stunning performance in preseason for Heinola to make the NHL roster out of camp, since Winnipeg would be promoting him at the cost of waiving another player.
That leaves Chisholm, 23, in the best position to threaten Capobianco and/or Stanley’s position in the NHL. Chisholm is no longer waivers-exempt and given his exemplary performance in the AHL (43 points in 59 games) he is a genuine candidate to be of interest to clubs high in the waiver priority.
The Jets drafted Chisholm in 2018 and have developed him in Manitoba for three seasons, meaning it would definitely sting to put all that work into growing a player only to see another NHL club reap the fruits of that labor during 2023-24.
The sting they’d feel would be almost identical to what the organization must have felt watching Johnathan Kovacevic carve out a spot as an NHL regular with the Montreal Canadiens last season. The Jets spent a 2017 third-round pick to draft Kovacevic and oversaw his development both in college and in the AHL for a half-decade.
The Jets’ extensive effort developing Kovacevic culminated in the franchise receiving two NHL games from Kovacevic before losing him on waivers. Because the team opted to roster other defencemen over Kovacevic, the Canadiens appear to have a quality defensive defensemen on their hands at a remarkably affordable $766k cap charge through 2024-25.
That’s a genuinely valuable asset to have, and the Jets are unlikely to want to put themselves in that position again, possibly handing another club a valuable defenseman for a second consecutive year. As a result, it seems the likeliest outcome is Capobianco is waived, Heinola is sent to the AHL, and both Stanley and Chisholm are rostered in the NHL.
But unless a trade is completed before opening night, the uncertainty of waivers will hang above the heads of Jets decision-makers as they ponder how to construct their NHL roster. If nothing else, the success of Chisholm and the presence of waivers will make the battle for the Jets’ final one or two defensive roster spots one of the most intriguing storylines to watch in the NHL preseason process.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Bruins Looking To “Bolster” Center Position
Often, periods of sustained success lead to a quick and rough-and-tumble downfall in today’s NHL. That chain of events appears to be set in motion with the Boston Bruins, who are now facing some significant forward depth issues after a tight salary cap crunch and the retirement of captain Patrice Bergeron earlier this week. With Bergeron and longtime teammate David Krejci not expected to return as their two top pivots down the middle, team president Cam Neely told reporters, including Joe Haggerty, today that the team is doing “whatever we can to bolster that position.”
If Neely isn’t bluffing, expect that to lead to pretty immediate trade speculation regarding the Bruins and some of the top centers potentially available on the trade market. They still have some runway this offseason to make a move before the 2023-24 campaign starts, although a move could always come closer to next year’s trade deadline if the team feels they can be competitive enough to at least stay in the playoff race until that point.
Haggerty mentioned two candidates who, by public consensus, should make the most sense – Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames and Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets. Both have loads of experience shouldering first-line minutes and are pending UFAs next summer, with the status of contract extensions up in the air. If you’re a Bruins fan, don’t hold your breath, though – any trade will be incredibly tough to pull off with limited financial maneuverability and a lack of top-flight assets in the cupboard.
That being said, when a team official says all avenues are being exhausted, it’s fair to speculate about a deal. The Bruins do have a couple of pieces capable of top-six minutes in Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle, but more is needed for a team no longer stacked with depth scoring on the wings and still having playoff aspirations. Lindholm immediately jumps out as a better fit with Boston than Scheifele, if for no other reason than his lower cap hit. Locked in at just $4.85MM next year, a move centered around someone like defenseman Matt Grzelcyk could be palatable for the B’s if Calgary obliges – the Flames may be looking for someone to replace pending UFA defenseman Noah Hanifin if they trade him as well.
Not only that, he’s a much better direct stylistic replacement for Bergeron than Scheifele. No one will come close to Bergeron’s two-way dominance (and calling him dominating may be an understatement), but Lindholm has garnered significant Selke consideration in the past two seasons and has posted better point production than Bergeron in the past few seasons.
Scheifele may have a slightly higher offensive ceiling with a longer history of point-per-game seasons, but he’d be harder to fit in at a $6.125MM cap hit. Boston doesn’t exactly have the assets to spare to convince a team (or third party) to retain salary in a deal. While incredibly skilled, Scheifele also consistently ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive impacts. He’d be a fine stopgap and a significant upgrade on their current options, but if the Bruins have a choice between the two candidates mentioned, Scheifele will likely be their second pick.
Other than those two, the list of centers available on the trade market that would be significant upgrades over their current options is quite slim, at least among pending 2024 UFAs. There’s also another Flame who could be available on the market in Mikael Backlund, but he’s not quite viewed as a bonafide number-one center despite his elite defensive capabilities.
Unlikely That Winnipeg Will Want To Move A Veteran Defenseman Despite Logjam
- While the Jets are likely facing a logjam on the back end next season, Scott Billeck of the Winnipeg Sun doesn’t expect the team to be moving away one of their veterans to open up a spot for a younger player. As things stand, Winnipeg has their top six intact from last season, leaving youngsters Logan Stanley, Ville Heinola, Kyle Capobianco, and waiver-eligible Declan Chisholm on the outside looking in. Currently, the more probable scenario is Capobianco being waived and Heinola, who is waiver-exempt, being sent down, leaving Stanley and Chisholm as projected scratches. That’s not ideal for a team that could benefit from developing some of their younger options but with the Jets looking to stay competitive in the short-term, them moving a veteran would go against that intent.
Manitoba Moose Sign Two Players
- The AHL affiliate of the Winnipeg Jets, the Manitoba Moose, announced two signings today, bringing in Thomas Caron and Mark Liwiski on separate one-year deals. The former captain of the QMJHL’s Quebec Remparts, Caron has seen much of his career crippled by injury, only managing one full season in the last five years. Liwiski, on the other hand, played his first full professional season last year with the Wichita Thunder of the ECHL, becoming one of the most feared players to line up against, racking up 192 PIMs in 67 games.
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Winnipeg's Defensive Depth Could Be Something To Watch For On Trade Front
- Scott Billeck of the Winnipeg Sun examines the Jets’ offseason thus far and highlights the situation on the back end as something to watch for. Prospect Declan Chisholm is now waiver-eligible which makes it likely that he breaks camp with the team while Logan Stanley’s trade request from last season still hasn’t been granted. Notably, Stanley declined to file for arbitration earlier this month. Meanwhile, Ville Heinola, who has made it known in the past that he’s looking for more NHL time, remains waiver-exempt. Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Winnipeg try to do something to sort out what is a bit of a logjam toward the back of their back end as even if they carry eight defensemen to start next season, someone isn’t making the cut.
Latest On Connor Hellebuyck Trade Rumors
One of the highest-profile trade candidates who hasn’t yet been dealt to another team, outside of Norris trophy winner Erik Karlsson, is Winnipeg Jets starter Connor Hellebuyck. The 30-year-old is considered by many to be of the few “franchise goalies” left in the NHL, a netminder who a team can build around and consistently count on to post high-end numbers.
But the Michigan native is a pending unrestricted free agent who reportedly wants a contract extension at a $9.5MM AAV, which would put him among the highest-paid goalies in the NHL.
This has led to questions regarding whether the Jets would deal Hellebuyck to another team this summer, rather than risk entering next season with an expiring asset and potentially lose Hellebuyck to the open market in a year’s time.
They traded star center Pierre-Luc Dubois under these same circumstances, though it seems Hellebuyck could be more challenging to move.
Although Hellebuyck is undoubtedly a better goalie than Dubois is a forward, Dubois has the advantage of being younger and being a center. Teams are generally far more comfortable giving productive centers in their mid-twenties long-term, pricey extensions rather than netminders older than 30.
Additionally, the success of the Vegas Golden Knights, who won the Stanley Cup backstopped by Adin Hill (who hasn’t yet played more than 27 games in a single season) has led some to believe that investing in a costly goalie isn’t a wise use of scarce cap space. All of those factors have contributed to there being a lack of movement at the top of the goalie market.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that this lack of movement could even extend to Hellebuyck, saying to NHL Network that he has been spoken to sources who “wouldn’t be surprised if Hellebuyck starts the year in Winnipeg.”
Friedman cites the Jets’ desire to remain competitive despite trading away Dubois and losing Blake Wheeler as a factor complicating the likelihood Hellebuyck gets dealt. The Jets don’t want to take a step back into a rebuild, meaning they aren’t in a position to trade Hellebuyck for just picks and/or prospects, similar to when the Arizona Coyotes traded Darcy Kuemper to the Colorado Avalanche.
The Avalanche sent two draft picks and defensive prospect Conor Timmins, at the time a relatively recent 32nd overall draft choice, to get Kuemper, who like Hellebuyck had one year of team control remaining. Although Hellebuyck’s more impressive resume lends to the belief that he’d require more assets to acquire than Kuemper, contending teams likely won’t be able to send a quality prospect or two and some draft choices to acquire Hellebuyck.
The Jets are likely to want young, NHL-ready, or near-NHL-ready players similar to the crop they received in exchange for Dubois, a package headlined by 2022-23 breakout talent Gabriel Vilardi. But the relatively short list of contending teams looking to add an elite netminder likely has significant overlap with the list of clubs looking to subtract futures to add to their roster, rather than trade away roster players they were counting on for 2023-24.
One team that’s long been speculated as a potential landing spot for Hellebuyck is the New Jersey Devils. Although they lost Damon Severson and Ryan Graves, the Devils added Tyler Toffoli to their forward corps and could see top prospects Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes replace their two defensive losses. The one thing the Devils are missing is an elite goalie, and Hellebuyck fits the bill, though he might not fit into their cap sheet long-term.
The Devils have looked at the possibility of acquiring Hellebuyck, according to Friedman. The team could offer Vitek Vanecek as part of the trade, for example, which could allay the Jets’ fears of being left without a capable goalie to help them reach the playoffs.
But with the Devils potentially unable to afford a pricey long-term extension for the 2019-20 Vezina Trophy winner, they might not be willing to offer up the sort of assets the Jets would want in exchange for Hellebuyck, as he could very well end up a one-year rental if he’s traded to New Jersey.
In any case, despite how strong Hellebuyck’s play has been (he had a .920 save percentage in 64 games for the Jets this past season, second-best among goalies with 50 or more starts) he could be an extraordinarily difficult player to move this offseason.
His value to the Jets could exceed what another team would be willing to trade for him with just one year left on his deal, which could leave the Jets in the dangerous position of attempting to make noise in the Stanley Cup playoffs with a key pillar of the franchise precariously close to an exit on the free agent market.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Winnipeg Jets Re-Sign Gabe Vilardi
The Winnipeg Jets have reached a pre-arbitration agreement on a contract extension with recently acquired forward Gabe Vilardi. They’ve inked him to a two-year, $3.4375MM AAV contract.
This agreement leaves the Jets with three more restricted free agents left to sign: a pair of former top prospects in 2016 first-rounder Logan Stanley and 2018 first-rounder Rasmus Kupariand defenseman Declan Chisholm. Winnipeg acquired both Kupari and Vilardi from the Los Angeles Kings in the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, and have now locked in Vilardi to a bridge contract.
While some Jets fans anxious about players all-too-often looking to leave Winnipeg rather than commit there long-term might worry about Vilardi inching two years closer to unrestricted free agency, a long-term deal would likely have been very difficult to reach an agreement on.
Not only has Vilardi not yet played a game for the Jets, his NHL resume is likely a little too thin to merit a major long-term commitment.
Vilardi is a former top prospect who had some significant injury issues in his days in the OHL, but has taken some serious steps in recent years.
The soon-to-be 24-year-old didn’t make a consistent impact in his first go-around as a full-time NHLer, flashing some talent but totaling just 23 points in 54 games in 2020-21.
Vilardi played more in the AHL than NHL the following season but produced regularly in the American League, scoring 38 points in 39 games.
That AHL form carried into this past NHL season, and this most recent attempt to break into the world’s top league seems to have worked. Vilardi scored 23 goals and 41 points in 63 games, a 30-goal, 53-point 82-game pace.
Playing on Los Angeles’ first power-play unit, there is hope that Vilardi can become a difference-making offensive producer for the Jets, and their investment of nearly $3.5MM per season over the next two years reflects the Jets’ belief that Vilardi has put his inconsistent earlier NHL days behind him.
Should Vilardi manage to continue his development and put together some more productive, healthy campaigns, he’ll have placed himself in a strong position for his next contract.
For the Jets, they’ll receive Vilardi’s services at a potential discount rate should Vilardi match his 2022-23 output, let alone exceed it. That comes at the cost of getting Vilardi locked into a long-term agreement, though they’ll still have the opportunity to sign Vilardi to a long-term extension before this deal expires.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Winnipeg Jets Sign Morgan Barron
The Winnipeg Jets signed restricted free agent forward Morgan Barron to a two-year contract today, the team announced via press release. The contract is worth $2.7MM and carries a cap hit and average annual value of $1.35MM.
It’s a nice bit of work for the two sides, who avoid arbitration with the two-year pact. The Jets still have quite a bit of work to do with Gabriel Vilardi, Rasmus Kupari and Logan Stanley needing new deals, but it’s a good dent in their remaining offseason work.
The 24-year-old forward is coming off a career year in 2022-23, setting career-highs in goals (eight), assists (13) and points (21) while transforming into an everyday NHLer for the first time, skating in 70 regular season games for the Jets. As part of the trade return for Andrew Copp at the 2022 trade deadline from the Rangers, Barron looks to develop into a solid bottom-six forward who could have staying power in Winnipeg. He also appeared in all five games of Winnipeg’s first-round playoff loss to the Vegas Golden Knights.
Barron will look to build on those offensive totals next season, although he’s likely to start the campaign in a fourth-line role. A healthy Cole Perfetti, plus full seasons from depth players like Mason Appleton and Nino Niederreiter, likely push him down the depth chart slightly, although he’s shown the ability to be effective in a limited role.
Manitoba Moose Sign C.J. Suess
- The AHL affiliate of the Winnipeg Jets has added some strength at forward, signing C.J. Suess to a minor-league contract. This will be the second time Suess has featured in the Jets’ organization, playing for the team from 2017-2022. In his 166 games played for the Moose so far throughout his career, Suess has 45 goals and 38 assists.
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Winnipeg Jets Re-Sign Dylan Samberg
The Winnipeg Jets have reached an agreement with left-shot RFA defenseman Dylan Samberg on a two-year contract, as announced today. The deal carries an average annual value of $1.4MM, a healthy raise coming off his entry-level contract.
At the age of 24, Samberg earned his first full-time NHL roster spot in 2022-23, skating in 63 contests for the Jets. He contributed two goals and eight points, but his main value came without the puck on his stick – he was one of Winnipeg’s best shutdown defenders at even strength. The team’s 43rd overall pick in 2017, Samberg’s now accumulated 13 points (two goals and 11 assists) and 29 penalty minutes across his 78 career NHL games, all coming within the last two seasons.
Before joining the professional ranks, Samberg played three seasons for the University of Minnesota-Duluth from 2017 to 2020, winning two NCAA championships in the process. This season, he appeared in his first top-level men’s tournament for the United States at the 2023 World Championships, contributing four points (one goal and three assists) in 10 games en route to a fourth-place finish.
Samberg played just 14:55 per game last season, a number that’s sure to increase as he eats into the minutes of veteran Brenden Dillon on the left side. Samberg was also extremely useful on the penalty kill, and his pairings with either Dylan DeMelo and Nate Schmidt were often Winnipeg’s best at limiting chances against on any given night.
He’ll be a restricted free agent again in 2025, although he’ll be just one year out from UFA status at that time.