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Extension Candidate: Mark Scheifele

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The Winnipeg Jets are approaching a potentially franchise-altering season. Two of the organization’s key players, former Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck and team number-one center Mark Scheifele are each on expiring contracts that stand to walk them straight to the unrestricted free agent market next summer.

The Jets are intent on remaining competitive with key players such as Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey, Nikolaj Ehlers, and recent acquisition Gabriel Vilardi still on their roster. So it stands to reason that the team would be interested in retaining Scheifele, the player with the most goals in Jets history since they arrived from Atlanta.

But seeing as his name has come up in trade rumors this summer, it’s also a very real possibility that he ends up on a different team next season. A poor campaign by Winnipeg could finally catalyze the type of re-tool that seems off the table at this current moment entering 2023-24.

The likeliest scenario that would result in Winnipeg engaging in serious discussions about a long-term contract with Scheifele next season would be if the team sprints out of the gate at the start of the regular season and looks like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

If that ends up happening, the Jets finding a way to retain their number-one center would likely become an organizational top priority. Should the Jets make a determined effort to extend Scheifele — assuming they haven’t already — what might that contract look like?

2022-23

For quite a while now, the question of Scheifele’s true on-ice value has been a hotly debated one. He’s a divisive player, and that’s not even a reference to the vicious hit he laid on an unsuspecting Jake Evans during the 2021 playoffs — one that got him suspended for the team’s final three games as well as Winnipeg’s season-opener the following campaign — but rather a reference to the way in which Scheifele approaches the game.

Scheifele places a premium on offensive creation and offensive production, something that is certainly admirable, but often comes at the detriment of his all-around value. His fixation on always maximizing his and his linemates’ offensive production has made him something of a lightning rod for criticism as the Jets franchise has declined since their 2018 run to the Western Conference Final.

Scheifele’s approach to the game has at times attracted harsh criticism from those who would like to see him take a more committed approach to the defensive side of the game. A lot is typically asked of elite centers in the NHL, and nothing Scheifele has shown in recent seasons has suggested he is able to capably manage the sort of defensive commitment many coaches want to see out of top pivots. Jets coach Rick Bowness even appeared to show some frustration at Scheifele during last season, per The Athletic’s Murat Ates, suggesting that many fans’ frustration with Scheifele’s offensive focus could be shared, to a certain extent, by figures within the Jets organization.

But on the flip side of those negatives is the undeniable reality that Scheifele is among the most offensively gifted centers in the NHL. He scored a career-high 42 goals last season and has frequently been an at-or-above point-per-game scorer. He’s a two-time NHL All-Star and has even been productive in the playoffs, with 32 points in 37 career games. He undoubtedly has the numbers of a true first-line center, and first-line centers are extremely rare. But then the question becomes, he has number-one center numbers, but does he play like one?

Statistics

2022-23: 81 GP, 42 G, 26 A, 68 pts, -16 rating, 43 PIMs, 206 shots, 20:29 ATOI, 58.5% CF
Career: 723 GP, 272 G, 373 A, 645 pts, +46 rating, 303 PIMs, 1,620 shots, 19:59 ATOI, 55.7% CF

The Market

Centers who put up the kind of numbers Scheifele has throughout his career don’t come cheap. While Scheifele is undoubtedly a cut below the dynamic, league-defining centers such as Nathan MacKinnon that are at the top of the financial leaderboard, he nonetheless has the profile of a player who merits a franchise-defining contract.

It’s very rare for a point-per-game top-line center to hit the open market, and while it’s certainly up for debate if Scheifele truly fits that mold, he’d certainly end up the best center on the open market assuming both Auston Matthews and Steven Stamkos re-sign with their current clubs.

That would likely aid Scheifele significantly should he be seeking the highest AAV mark possible on his next deal, as it’s probable that teams desperate for a true scoring center (such as the Boston Bruins, who lost David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron to retirement) would be ready to open their wallets for Scheifele.

The Jets have the sort of cap space to afford a hefty raise for Scheifele, in large part thanks to the nearly $7MM set to come off their books at the expiration of Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo’s contracts. The team shifting to a cheaper goaltender should Hellebuyck depart could also make fitting a pricey Scheifele extension all that much easier for Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff.

Comparable Contracts

Dylan Larkin (Detroit Red Wings) – Detroit invested an $8.7MM AAV in Larkin’s next contract, and although Scheifele is three years older he has a decent argument to have earned more than that number. Scheifele has a more extensive track record of offensive production than Larkin, though Larkin’s defensive game certainly surpasses Scheifele’s. It’s also worth noting that Larkin was signing with his hometown team and the club he captains, and although Scheifele has spent his entire pro career with the Jets it’s unlikely he has ties as deep, long-lasting ties as Larkin had, the sort of ties that would make a player particularly motivated to re-sign.

Bo Horvat (New York Islanders) Horvat has posted numbers far below Scheifele’s career standards for much of his time in the NHL, and he earned an $8.5MM AAV from the New York Islanders. Horvat’s commitment to defense far surpasses Scheifele’s and he is two years younger. But NHL teams first and foremost pay for production when it comes to scoring forwards, and as a result, it’s difficult to imagine Scheifele earning less than Horvat on his next deal, at least on an average annual value basis.

Projected Contract

In our preview of the 2024 free agent class, we projected a $9.4MM AAV on Scheifele’s next contract, on a seven-year term. That’s certainly a fair number looking at Scheifele’s offensive production, but one wonders if teams would give pause to committing that kind of money to a player with Scheifele’s defensive warts now that he’s past the age of 30.

That being said, the type of bidding war that would be likely to take place should Scheifele hit the open market would almost undoubtedly see Scheifele offered a contract at that AAV, if not higher. Quite simply, centers of his caliber are among the rarest commodities in the NHL, and almost never hit unrestricted free agency.

If the Jets want to motivate Scheifele to forgo a likely highly lucrative trip to the free agent market, they’ll likely need to pony up, potentially giving him a maximum-term deal above the $10MM mark.

Similarly, for a team to prevail in what is likely to be a hotly contested battle for his signature in any potential Scheifele unrestricted free agency, they’ll likely need to cross that $10MM threshold as well.

It’s far from a given we reach that point since Scheifele still needs to have a productive 2023-24 season, but if he has another near or above-point-per-game season he could very well end up the star of next summer’s free agent frenzy. Though if he does, there will undoubtedly be quite a bit of debate over whether he truly merits the contract he’ll receive.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Jets Re-Sign Logan Stanley

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The Jets have reached an agreement on a new deal with one of their remaining restricted free agents.  They announced that they’ve re-signed defenseman Logan Stanley to a one-year contract.  The one-way deal will pay him $1MM and matches what his qualifying offer was back in June.

The 25-year-old was a first-round pick by Winnipeg back in 2016 (18th overall) with the team hoping that his 6’7 stature could make him a force on their back end.  While Stanley has shown flashes of being an impact player, he hasn’t been able to do that consistently at this point in his career.

Last season was a tough one on multiple fronts for Stanley.  He missed a total of 40 games due to a pair of lower-body injuries and when he was healthy, he struggled to get into the lineup.  The end result was just 19 appearances during the regular season, the lowest of his three-year career.  In those games, Stanley had just three points along with 44 hits while logging less than 14 minutes a night.  In the playoffs, Stanley got into just one contest, playing less than nine minutes in total.

Along the way, Stanley requested a trade, one that has yet to be granted.  The challenge for Winnipeg in terms of extracting value for Stanley is that at this stage of his career (spanning 114 games), he simply hasn’t shown enough to be counted on as a full-time top-six blueliner.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff won’t want to give Stanley away as the trade value for a depth defender isn’t particularly high while on the flip side, an acquiring team won’t want to pay a higher asking price for someone who hasn’t yet landed a full-time lineup spot yet.

Unfortunately for Stanley, his situation hasn’t changed much over the summer as Winnipeg’s back end hasn’t changed.  If nothing else, it might have gotten more crowded with Declan Chisholm (their other remaining RFA) now waiver-eligible while Ville Heinola (who also has made it known he’d welcome a change of scenery) also in the mix.  At the moment, Stanley will likely be battling for the sixth or seventh spot on the depth chart which puts him exactly where he was a year ago.

Stanley will once again be a restricted free agent next summer with a $1MM qualifier.  He’ll have arbitration rights at that time as well, something he elected not to exercise this time around, a decision likely made with the hopes that it might help facilitate a trade.  If he’s still around next summer, it’ll be interesting to see if he takes that route if nothing changes for him in the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cole Perfetti Hoping To Fill Second-Line Center Spot

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With the Jets moving Pierre-Luc Dubois earlier this summer, they have a vacancy to fill down the middle in their top six.  Although Cole Perfetti spent last season on the wing, he told Mike McIntyre of the Winnipeg Free Press that he thinks he could fill that role for Winnipeg in 2023-24.  The 21-year-old is a natural middleman but has yet to play a full season at the NHL level after an upper-body injury cost him the final two months of last year plus their first-round series against Vegas.  Perfetti will likely be battling Gabriel Vilardi (who came over in the Dubois trade) for the second-line center role with Vladislav Namestnikov also being a possible option after he served in that role at times following his acquisition at the trade deadline back in March.  With Perfetti entering the final year of his entry-level deal, demonstrating that he could be a long-term solution down the middle would certainly bolster his case heading into contract talks.

East Notes: Trade Targets, Amirov Jersey Retirement, Nylander

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Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander and Winnipeg Jets players Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele land atop the latest Trade Targets list from The Athletic, written by Shayna Goldman. All pending unrestricted free agents, Nylander finds himself first on the list after recording a career-high 40 goals and 87 points in 82 games last season. As Goldman notes, it’s highly unlikely a potential Nylander extension becomes top of mind for Toronto GM Brad Treliving until an extension for teammate Auston Matthews is signed, sealed and delivered.

Regarding Hellebuyck, his trade value has decreased in recent months, with teams shying away from doling out large sums of cash to bonafide starting netminders, instead looking for value options in the crease to guide them deep in the playoffs. Goldman posits, however, that it’s a method that can work only for a select few – namely Colorado and Vegas, as it has the past two seasons, given the strengths of their defense corps. While teams should be rightfully wary about handing out too much term to Hellebuyck on an extension, given he’s already 31 years old, acquiring a clear-cut elite starter is still necessary for some teams to reach championship contention. Other names on the list included Anaheim Ducks netminder John Gibson, Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brett Pesce, Calgary Flames players Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm, and Arizona Coyotes forwards Nick Schmaltz and Jason Zucker.

  • In a well-deserved and meaningful gesture, KHL club Salavat Yulaev Ufa will be retiring Rodion Amirov’s number 27 after the young forward passed away from a years-long battle with a brain tumor on Tuesday, according to The Hockey News’ David Alter. The 21-year-old Maple Leafs prospect had suited up in 70 games for his hometown team before he had to stop his playing career in 2021 to undergo cancer treatment. Reports indicate Salavat’s captain, 625-game KHL veteran Grigori Panin, initiated the decision.
  • Alexander Nylander is a candidate to slide into the Pittsburgh Penguins’ top six to begin the season, says The Athletic’s Rob Rossi. The 2016 eighth-overall pick could get a look at either Sidney Crosby’s or Evgeni Malkin’s left wing with Jake Guentzel sidelined for the first few games of 2023-24 after undergoing ankle surgery earlier this month. Now on his third NHL organization, the 25-year-old Nylander will look to capture a full-time spot in the NHL for the first time since he played 65 games with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2019-20.

August Free Agency Update: Central Division

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As even most mid-tier free agents are now off the market, it’s a good time to look at how each team has fared on the free agent market this offseason. We’re publishing a list of one-way signings (i.e., likelier to start the season on the NHL roster) by team, per division, to keep you updated on NHL player movement since the new league year began on July 1.

Asterisked players denote a restricted free agent. Double-asterisked players denote the contract starts in the 2024-25 season. Next up is the Central Division. You can check out the list of Atlantic Division signings here and the list of Metropolitan Division signings here.

Arizona Coyotes

F Jason Zucker (one year, $5.3MM cap hit)
D Mathew Dumba (one year, $3.9MM cap hit)
F Alexander Kerfoot (two years, $3.5MM cap hit)
*F Matias Maccelli (three years, $3.425MM cap hit)
F Nick Bjugstad (two years, $2.1MM cap hit)
*F Jack McBain (two years, $1.599MM cap hit)
D Troy Stecher (one year, $1.1MM cap hit)

Chicago Blackhawks

*F Philipp Kurashev (two years, $2.25MM cap hit)
F Ryan Donato (two years, $2MM cap hit)

Colorado Avalanche

*F Ross Colton (four years, $4MM cap hit)
*D Bowen Byram (two years, $3.85MM cap hit)
F Miles Wood (six years, $2.5MM cap hit)
F Jonathan Drouin (one year, $825K cap hit)
F Andrew Cogliano (one year, 35+ contract, $825K cap hit)
D Jack Johnson (one year, 35+ contract, $775K cap hit)
*F Ben Meyers (one year, $775K cap hit)

Dallas Stars

F Matt Duchene (one year, $3MM cap hit)
F Craig Smith (one year, $1MM cap hit)
*F Ty Dellandrea (one year, $900K cap hit)
F Sam Steel (one year, $850K cap hit)
D Joel Hanley (two years, $787.5K cap hit)
D Gavin Bayreuther (one year, $775K cap hit)

Minnesota Wild

*G Filip Gustavsson (three years, $3.75MM cap hit)
*F Brandon Duhaime (one year, $1.1MM cap hit)

Nashville Predators

F Ryan O’Reilly (four years, $4.5MM cap hit)
F Gustav Nyquist (two years, $3.185MM cap hit)
D Luke Schenn (three years, $2.75MM cap hit)
*F Cody Glass (two years, $2.5MM cap hit)
*D Alexandre Carrier (one year, $2.5MM cap hit)
F Denis Gurianov (one year, $850K cap hit)

St. Louis Blues

*F Alexey Toropchenko (two years, $1.25MM cap hit)
F Mackenzie MacEachern (two years, $775K cap hit)
F Oskar Sundqvist (one year, $775K cap hit)

Winnipeg Jets

*F Gabriel Vilardi (two years, $3.438MM cap hit)
F Vladislav Namestnikov (two years, $2MM cap hit)
G Laurent Brossoit (one year, $1.75MM cap hit)
*D Dylan Samberg (two years, $1.4MM cap hit)
*F Morgan Barron (two years, $1.35MM cap hit)
*F Rasmus Kupari (two years, $1MM cap hit)
G Collin Delia (one year, $775K cap hit)
F Jeffrey Viel (one year, $775K cap hit)

Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Update On This Year’s August 15 Free Agents

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Most NHL free agent business is dealt with in the early summer months. There is one important date later each year, however. August 15 marks the date when NHL teams lose their exclusive signing rights to most college-drafted players if they’ve graduated (or completed without graduating) college and are not yet signed to an entry-level contract.

Earlier this month, we published a list of players slated to hit the UFA market yesterday if not signed to an ELC within the coming days. However, the guidelines the NHL uses to determine a college graduate are some of the most complex sets of rules relating to contractual obligations in pro sports. That means it’s often impossible to glean a full list of players whose rights have expired (or not expired) until after the August 15 deadline has passed.

This year was no different, as CapFriendly issued multiple updates today on their X account regarding the list of August 15 free agents they’d made public earlier in the month. Three players who were slated to expire actually remained on their team’s reserve list: Calgary Flames 2018 fourth-round pick F Demetrios Koumontzis, Ottawa Senators 2018 seventh-round pick F Jakov Novak, and Senators 2018 second-round pick D Jonny Tychonick.

On the flip side, 12 players they expected to remain on teams’ reserve lists hit the free-agent market yesterday. With that in mind, we have a revised, accurate list of players who became unrestricted free agents yesterday. Asterisked players were not originally expected to come off their team’s reserve list.

Anaheim Ducks

*F Trevor Janicke (2019 fifth round, 132nd overall)

Arizona Coyotes

F John Farinacci (2019 third round, 76th overall)
*F Anthony Romano (2019 sixth round, 176th overall)

Boston Bruins

*D Dustyn McFaul (2018 sixth round, 181st overall)

Calgary Flames

*F Joshua Nodler (2019 fifth round, 150th overall)

Carolina Hurricanes

F Kevin Wall (2019 sixth round, 181st overall)

Chicago Blackhawks

F Jake Wise (2018 third round, 69th overall)

Colorado Avalanche

*F Matt Stienburg (2019 third round, 63rd overall)

Columbus Blue Jackets

D Robbie Stucker (2017 seventh round, 210th overall)

Detroit Red Wings

F Robert Mastrosimone (2019 second round, 54th overall)
*F Ethan Phillips (2019 fourth round, 97th overall)

Edmonton Oilers

F Skyler Brind’Amour (2017 sixth round, 177th overall)

Minnesota Wild

*D Marshall Warren (2019 sixth round, 166th overall)

New Jersey Devils

*D Case McCarthy (2019 fourth round, 118th overall)
*F Patrick Moynihan (2019 sixth round, 158th overall)

New York Islanders

D Christian Krygier (2018 seventh round, 196th overall)
F Jacob Pivonka (2018 fourth round, 103rd overall)

New York Rangers

*F Eric Ciccolini (2019 seventh round, 205th overall)
*F Riley Hughes (2018 seventh round, 216th overall)

Ottawa Senators

*F Luke Loheit (2018 seventh round, 194th overall)

Philadelphia Flyers

F Jay O’Brien (2018 first round, 19th overall)

San Jose Sharks

D Arvid Henrikson (2016 seventh round, 187th overall) Originally drafted by the Montreal Canadiens

Toronto Maple Leafs

D Ryan O’Connell (2017 seventh round, 203rd overall)

Winnipeg Jets

G Jared Moe (2018 sixth round, 184th overall)

Of the list above, Krygier and Pivonka are remaining in the Islanders organization on confirmed AHL contracts for 2023-24, although they remain eligible to sign with another NHL team should one come calling. All others are either returning to school for 2023-24, have contracts signed in other leagues, or are not signed for next season.

Notably, this is the official confirmation that the Flyers’ exclusive signing rights of O’Brien have lapsed. As compensation for not signing a first-round pick to their entry-level contract, the Flyers will receive a compensatory second-round pick from the league in the 2024 NHL Draft.

2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Fourth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
3rd Overall: Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado Avalanche (33)

The Conn Smythe winner with the 2019 Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues is off the board at third overall, becoming the first player taken outside of the first round to appear in our redraft. Notably, he does stay with the team that took him on Day 2 of the 2009 NHL Draft – the Colorado Avalanche, who used their second pick of the draft on O’Reilly after selecting Matt Duchene with the third overall pick. Both players have gone on to produce good offensive totals near the top of the class, although O’Reilly’s taken home more in terms of award hardware with a championship, a Conn Smythe and a Selke Trophy all under his belt. O’Reilly won with 48% of our polling, while Duchene finished second in third-overall voting with just 13% of the vote.

Next up on the draft board is the Atlanta Thrashers at fourth overall. This was their second straight top-five selection after using the third overall pick on defenseman Zach Bogosian in 2008.

This year, however, their big prospect add was forward Evander Kane out of the WHL’s Vancouver Giants. While it wasn’t a bad pick at all if you look at his point production throughout his career and his ability to consistently play a top-six role, Kane has had a multitude of off-ice incidents throughout his career, including having his contract terminated by the San Jose Sharks in 2022 for breaching COVID protocols.

Nonetheless, Kane was a solid player for the Thrashers (and Winnipeg Jets) for parts of six seasons until he was moved to the Buffalo Sabres in 2015. He was widely viewed as the best pick available at the time – after all, he had just posted 96 points in 61 games with the Giants while recording 89 penalty minutes to boot, and he’d recorded six points in six games for Canada at that year’s World Junior Championships.

He signed his entry-level contract with Atlanta just weeks after the draft and made the NHL full-time out of the gate in a middle-six role. As an 18-year-old, he recorded 14 goals and 12 assists for 26 points in 66 games, finishing tied in Calder Trophy voting with Hedman that year. By the time the 2012-13 partial lockout rolled around, Kane had a 30-goal season under his belt and was averaging over 20 minutes per game.

After later career stops with the Sabres, Sharks and now Edmonton Oilers, Kane has some well-documented defensive weaknesses but still brings an intriguing blend of shooting ability and physicality to the table. In 853 games, he’s scored 302 goals – third among the 2009 class behind Tavares and Duchene. His 573 career points are sixth in the class.

There’s an argument to be made that the Thrashers made the right pick, but Duchene could have also been a more intriguing option had he been available for the Thrashers to select at fourth overall. They don’t have very long to decide, though, as Atlanta is now on the clock – who should they select with the fourth-overall pick in the 2009 NHL Draft? Make your voice heard below:

If you can’t access the built-in poll, click here to vote.

Jets Notes: Hellebuyck, Scheifele, Stanley, Chisholm

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Things have been quiet on the Connor Hellebuyck trade rumors front over the past few weeks. No teams have made serious offers for the pending UFA’s services since he reportedly informed interested teams he desired a $9.5MM AAV on a long-term extension. Without a trade in place, the Jets haven’t shut the door completely on trying to extend their franchise netminder. In a mailbag today, Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe says he believes Winnipeg has made a short-term, two-to-three-year extension offer to Hellebuyck, although it’s not something he suspects Hellebuyck’s camp would ever agree to.

Hellebuyck reportedly told Winnipeg he was unwilling to sign an extension in June, giving the Jets plenty of time to work out a deal. The team has had some interesting roster turnover this summer, though, getting a nice return package for Pierre-Luc Dubois that arguably upgraded their team in the short term. With a Western Conference that’s routinely anyone’s game aside from the few top dogs, it’s not out of the question the Jets return to the postseason in 2024 – maybe even with a better-equipped squad. As each day passes, it seems increasingly likely Hellebuyck will at least start next season in a Jets uniform. His primary goal remains winning a championship, so if Winnipeg can get off to a strong start with new faces in the fold, expect them to make a bigger push to keep Hellebuyck around after all.

Some other notes on the Jets from Wiebe:

  • Speculatively, Wiebe threw some cold water on the idea of trading first-line center Mark Scheifele to the Boston Bruins, citing Boston’s tight salary cap picture and the uncertainty surrounding Hellebuyck as reasons why. With Scheifele’s less exorbitant demands on an extension, he’s likely the easier of the two to trade if they do reach that point. Also a pending UFA, Scheifele currently carries a cap hit of $6.125MM and is coming off a career-high 42 goals in 2022-23. Considering all the moving parts involved in a potential trade with the Bruins, it makes sense the Jets would rather wait and see what a potential Hellebuyck return brings them before discussing a Scheifele deal.
  • Wiebe also believes the Jets may indeed sign RFA defenseman Logan Stanley before potentially honoring his trade request. As he notes, it’ll be a tough fit for Stanley to get consistent NHL time with Winnipeg next season after Dylan Samberg surpassed him on the depth chart last year. The 2016 first-round pick isn’t in line for a large raise, either, meaning it’s likely inconsequential if he signs a contract for 2023-24 with the Jets or if he signs with a new team after they trade for his signing rights. Stanley was eligible for salary arbitration this summer but opted not to file. He played in just 19 games for Winnipeg last season, recording three points and a 45.9% Corsi for at even strength while averaging just 13:43 per game.
  • Similarly, Wiebe thinks the Jets haven’t agreed to minor-league defender Declan Chisholm on a new deal yet, thanks to the latter’s desire for a one-way contract. Chisholm has just a pair of NHL games to his name but excelled in the minors with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose last season, posting 43 points in 59 games and earning an AHL All-Star nod in the process. The 23-year-old defenseman may very well get claimed on waivers if the Jets sign him and attempt to send him back to Manitoba after a strong camp, though, so Chisholm is likely to earn an NHL salary next season regardless, although a two-way deal would remove that guarantee.

Winnipeg Jets Sign Rasmus Kupari

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The Winnipeg Jets and forward Rasmus Kupari have agreed to a two-year deal worth $1MM per season, according to a team release today.

Winnipeg acquired Kupari’s signing rights from the Los Angeles Kings just over a month ago as part of the trade return for center Pierre-Luc Dubois. Kupari was due a $874,125 qualifying offer from Winnipeg after completing his entry-level contract, which the Jets issued him a few days after the trade.

Los Angeles selected the now-23-year-old with the 20th overall pick in 2018, but he hasn’t quite yet panned out into an everyday NHLer. He got awfully close this past season, though, skating in just 11 games with the AHL’s Ontario Reign while playing in 66 NHL games with the Kings. Kupari also played in all six playoff games for the Kings during their first-round playoff loss against the Edmonton Oilers.

After recording a career-high 15 points last year, though, it’s now obvious Winnipeg envisions him as an everyday player in their lineup after dishing out a seven-figure deal. A natural center, Kupari is likely penciled in for fourth-line duties behind Mark Scheifele, former Kings teammate Gabriel Vilardi, and Adam Lowry, so he may not see a significant uptick on the 10:05 of ice time he averaged per game last season. However, a potentially looming Scheifele trade could elevate Kupari in the lineup.

The Finnish youngster will be a restricted free agent in 2025 and eligible for arbitration.

Previewing The Top 2024 Unrestricted Free Agents

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This year’s free agent class was underwhelming. There’s no disrespect intended here to players like Alex Killorn, Dmitry Orlov and Vladimir Tarasenko. However, we’ve grown accustomed to at least one true star being available on the market every year – at least a top-ten player at their position. But a flurry of extensions took some potential game-breakers, such as Boston Bruins sniper David Pastrnak off the market, limiting the amount of star power available.

With the salary cap finally expected to jump significantly by about $4MM next offseason, some NHL general managers will undoubtedly look to spend that extra cash on a shiny new toy on the UFA market. As 2023 is mainly in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at some of the best players slated to hit the open market next summer, whether or not they may extend, and offer some way-too-early contract projections in the process:

F Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) – The unquestionable crown jewel of the 2024 free agent class might also be one of the least likely to hit the market. Matthews is more than just a superstar – he’s a season removed from back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophies, he’s led the league in even-strength goals in four out of his seven NHL seasons, and he’s coming off a “down season” in which he still managed 40 goals despite a career-low 12.2 shooting percentage. Toronto is still plugging away at an extension with Matthews, a process that was surely elongated by a change at the GM position earlier this offseason. While multiple reports suggested it likely won’t be a long-term deal to keep Matthews in Toronto, seeing his name available for anyone to pursue next July would be shocking.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Five years, $62MM ($12.4MM AAV)

F William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) – Another star in Canada’s largest city is also headed for the open market next season. Nylander is coming off a strong season with a career-high 40 goals and 87 points, but multiple reports indicate contract talks are currently at an impasse between the two sides. The Swedish winger reportedly wants an eight-figure cap hit on his next deal, one he’s increasingly unlikely to receive after sub-$10MM extensions for players like the Carolina Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho. He will be in his prime at 28 years old next summer, though, and he currently holds the undisputed title of the best pure winger slated to hit the market. Given the slated cap increase, Nylander may be able to garner the money he desires elsewhere if Toronto isn’t willing to fork over another eight-figure deal.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $70MM ($10MM AAV)

F Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Including Stamkos on this list seems like more of a formality than anything else. The captain of back-to-back Stanley Cup championship teams in Tampa and likely to go down as the greatest player in franchise history when he retires, it’s nearly impossible to imagine him wearing another jersey. Barring an unforeseen breakdown in communication, Stamkos will be re-upping with the Bolts on what could potentially be the final contract of his NHL career as he enters his mid-30s. After yet another point-per-game season, Stamkos will undoubtedly be sticking around in Tampa as long as they’ll have him, likely at a slight discount to help them replenish their depth reserves.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Four years, $31.5MM ($7.875MM AAV)

F Jake Guentzel (Pittsburgh Penguins) – The Penguins have exhibited a strong tendency toward keeping the band together in recent seasons, but it’s a trend that may change under the front-office leadership of Kyle Dubas. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Penguins won’t field a competitive offer to keep Guentzel in the fold. He’s been one of the most successful and consistent linemates to Sidney Crosby in the entire illustrious career of the future Hall-of-Famer, he’s a two-time 40-goal scorer, and he’s an incredibly clutch playoff performer. While contract extension talks haven’t begun between the two parties yet, reporting indicates the Penguins’ core shares the public’s view of Guentzel and would like to keep him around.

Extension Likelihood: Likely
Projected Contract: Eight years, $75MM ($9.375MM AAV)

F Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets) – The first of two Jets on this list hasn’t been in trade rumors quite as much as his netminding counterpart, but there’s still a very good chance Scheifele is sporting a different jersey by the 2024 trade deadline. Speculation has immediately run rampant about Scheifele as a stop-gap fix down the middle for the Boston Bruins, who are without their number-one center after captain Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement last week. There are plenty of question marks about how highly Scheifele is actually valued around the league, given his significant defensive lapses, but he’s consistently produced the offense you’d want out of a number-one center. Despite scoring a career-high 42 goals last season, 2022-23 was actually Scheifele’s first campaign falling short of a point per game since 2015-16, when he was just 22 years old.

Extension Likelihood: Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $66MM ($9.4MM AAV)

D Devon Toews (Colorado Avalanche) – Toews may be the most unheralded defenseman in the league thanks to his partner, Cale Makar. On almost any other team, Toews would be a legitimate number-one defender with very few holes in his game. Little has been made of his impending free agency, but he’ll be due a major raise on his current bargain-bin $4.1MM cap hit. Combined with the potential loss of captain Gabriel Landeskog’s LTIR relief should he return to play in 2024-25, it could be incredibly difficult for Colorado to retain him even with the cap going up. Not only does Toews consistently rank among having some of the best defensive impacts in the league, but he’s also coming off back-to-back 50-point campaigns and has finished top-15 in Norris voting during each of his three seasons in Colorado.

Extension Likelihood: 50/50
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61MM ($8.7MM AAV)

D Brandon Montour (Florida Panthers) – A pair of prominent Panthers defenders are up for UFA status next season in Montour and Gustav Forsling, but Montour’s the one we’ll cover more in-depth here after he led the Panthers’ defense in playoff scoring with eight goals and 13 points in 21 games despite playing through a shoulder injury which will cost him the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign. His stock has never been higher after exploding for 73 points in 80 regular season games, along with a career-high 107 penalty minutes. While he’s still a rather one-dimensional player and likely to be somewhat of a liability defensively, he’s finally shown legitimate top-pair ability at 29 years old. Committing any term to Montour as a UFA may be a case of buyer beware, however, as his track record is far from consistent.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Four years, $26MM ($6.5MM AAV)

G Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets) – It seemed very unlikely a few months ago that Hellebuyck would be on this list today. While there’s no chance he’ll be signing an extension with the Jets, a trade followed by an extension with a new team seemed rather likely this offseason. However, some outlandish financial demands from Hellebuyck’s camp dried up trade interest, and there hasn’t been a lot of movement on that front lately. While small, the possibility that Hellebuyck lands on the open market next season seems to be increasing without a trade or extension any closer to fruition.

Extension Likelihood: Very Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61.25MM ($8.75MM AAV)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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