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PHR Mock Expansion Roster

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The protection lists are in, and the Vegas Golden Knights are on the clock to determine who will be selected in the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Each team will lose one player off their roster, either through an expansion selection or the Golden Knights signing a free agent.

Vegas must select at least 20 players who are under contract for the 2017-18 season and a minimum of 14 forwards, 9 defensemen and 3 goaltenders. The contracts of the selected players must fall between 60% ($43.8MM) and 100% ($73MM) of the 2016-17 salary cap. The entire rules for the selection process can be found here.

Here at PHR  Zach Leach, Brian La Rose, Mike Furlano, Nate Brown, Seth Lawrence, Holger Stolzenberg and I all submitted what we thought the Vegas expansion selections would look like, and below is the projected roster based on those predictions. This made for a pretty interesting lineup, selecting a surplus of NHL defensemen and goaltenders in order to collect assets for the summer.

Forwards (15):

James Neal (NSH)
Cody Eakin (DAL)
David Perron (STL)
Jamie McGinn (ARZ)
Brock Nelson (NYI)
William Karlsson (CBJ)
Hunter Shinkaruk (CGY)
Kerby Rychel (TOR)
Marko Dano (WPG)
Jon Marchessault (FLA)
Charles Hudon (MTL)
Nicolas Kerdiles (ANA)
Beau Bennett (NJD)
Brendan Gaunce (VAN)
Taylor Leier (PHI)

Defensemen (10):

Marc Methot (OTT)
Brenden Dillon (SJS)
Mathew Dumba (MIN)
Brayden McNabb (LAK)
Colin Miller (BOS)
Klas Dahlbeck (CAR)
Trevor van Riemsdyk (CHI)
Griffin Reinhart (EDM)
Jake Dotchin (TB)
Nate Schmidt (WSH)

Goaltenders (5):

Marc-Andre Fleury (PIT)
Petr Mrazek (DET)
Antti Raanta (NYR)
Calvin Pickard (COL)
Linus Ullmark (BUF)

Obviously, some of the expected side deals were taken into account with Anaheim being the clearest example. Both Sami Vatanen and Josh Manson were not selected, as it is almost a given that Anaheim has some sort of a protection deal with the Golden Knights. That said, as GM George McPhee said today, nothing is final until it’s final.

Here are the honorable mentions, made up of players that received more than one vote but were still not the majority choice:

Sami Vatanen (ANA), Josh Manson (ANA), Alexander Burmistrov (ARZ), Malcolm Subban (BOS), William Carrier (BUF), Eddie Lack (CAR), Mikhail Grigorenko (COL), Jack Johnson (CBJ), Dan Hamhuis (DAL), Iiro Pakarinen (EDM), Christian Folin (MIN), Ryan Strome (NYI), Thomas Hickey (NYI), Michael Grabner (NYR), Bobby Ryan (OTT), Paul Martin (SJ) Nail Yakupov (STL), Dmitrij Jaskin (STL), Cedric Paquette (TB), Andrey Pedan (VAN), Philipp Grubauer (WSH).

We came to a unanimous decision on only three players, with Trevor van Riemsdyk, Marc-Andre Fleury and Marko Dano receiving votes from all seven writers. That uncertainty will make the next few days even more interesting, as surprises and closed-door dealings will be sure to make June 21st a wild night. Make sure to leave your choices in the comments, and what you think the chances of this team would be next season.

Last Day For Side-Dealing, Vegas Will Pick Roster Tomorrow

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Vegas Golden Knights GM George McPhee met with media today and spoke about how the process is going now that the NHL movement freeze is on and he’s under the gun to select his expansion team. McPhee announced that this is the last day he’ll be working on side deals with teams, and said he would pick the final expansion roster tomorrow. There have already been reports of as many as seven deals completed with Vegas, though as McPhee said today “nothing is final until it’s final.”

Though deals to protect certain players off their own roster have likely already been hashed out, with the release of the protection lists teams are likely calling to see if they can pull off a post-draft trade with Vegas in order to get a certain player from around the league. It will be interesting to see how many players Vegas flips after the draft in order to get more selections in the upcoming entry draft, or young assets they can use to build. A player like James Neal, who is of little use to the Golden Knights on a one-year deal would likely bring back at least a first-round pick now or at next year’s trade deadline.

All eyes are on McPhee and his staff as they try and build the best organization possible in the next few days. After already seeing some excellent players go unprotected, it is starting to look like a playoff push may be in the cards for Vegas within the first few years of their existence. With Marc-Andre Fleury likely the pick from Pittsburgh, they’ll have a chance to have at least some Stanley Cup experience in the room right away. The roster will be announced during the NHL Awards on Wednesday, June 21st.

Vegas Storming 1st Round Of Draft

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The Vegas Golden Knights are in an odd position, where they control a strong negotiating position over teams who don’t want to lose valuable roster players. Vegas is under no obligation to comply with any requests, and can essentially extort other teams for maximum return. If Anaheim wants to protect Josh Manson, for example, Vegas will play hardball. They will do so for two reasons: first, the better the player, the more important he will be to a future Knights team, and two, they have no incentive not to take that player for anything less than an optimal return. GM George McPhee is already looking to have a better competitive jump-start than any previous NHL expansion team by a significant margin. And it doesn’t look as though he will opt out of choosing the best available players for anything short of a ransom. Some teams might be desperate enough to do so.

Vegas is already assumed to have three picks, and could easily snag more. They have their own pick at #6, and are believed to have side-deals with Columbus and the New York Islanders in order to acquire the #24 and #15 picks, respectively. Anaheim is definitely in discussions to keep Manson and possibly even Sami Vatanen, who they desperately tried to trade for value before Saturday’s roster freeze. It’s quite conceivable that picks are in play there, but Anaheim no longer has its 2017 first after trading it to Dallas for Patrick Eaves.

Other teams who will be desperate to keep players include Nashville, who would lose James Neal, Chicago, who have exposed Trevor van Riemsdyk, and San Jose, who could lose one of Paul Martin or David Schlemko. If those teams, or any other organization, really want to hang onto particular players, there’s a very real possibility they will need to surrender a top pick.

For historical reference, only one team has ever drafted with 5 first-round picks – the 1974 Montreal Canadiens. The last team who had 4 first-round picks was the 1999 New York Islanders, when they selected Tim Connolly at #5. If Vegas could amass yet another first round pick, or even two, it would put them in an incredibly enviable position headed into the Entry Draft. The importance of flash and showmanship is rarely overlooked in the City of Lights, and the team looks to continue that philosophy by embracing the saga that the expansion draft has become.

Vegas Holding Steady On Trade Front

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According to Vegas GM George McPhee, the team has not yet made any transactions. NHL.com’s Dan Marrazza explains McPhee is reluctant to finalize any movement until the overall situation becomes clearer. Lost in all the frantic floundering leading up to the roster freeze yesterday and the release of protection lists this morning, Vegas still needs to ice a cohesive team. Although they certainly have a vision of what the team should look like, and have isolated certain players on their radar, the ultimate decisions are still far away. McPhee openly stated that he is willing to negotiate with other teams in order to keep their rosters intact. But as we have learned from potential side deals, the prices could be quite high.

The Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Steve Carp wrote that the Knights will “wait until late” to make their final selections in the case of a last-minute negotiation with another team. McPhee directly stated that they “don’t have anything” but that “they have lots of things lined up”. This somewhat contradicts the previously reported arrangement with Columbus to take a 1st round pick in exchange for not selecting Josh Anderson or Joonas Korpisalo. His purposely vague statements add fuel to the fire that has become league-wide speculation. With the NHL officially leaving all trade announcements under wraps until the official unveiling of the roster, all eyes will be on McPhee and his team. Insiders will undoubtedly try to force leaks of information, and will probably have success in doing so. Ultimately, however, it seems likely that McPhee has already essentially “closed” deals with other teams, but is being coy for the sake of spectacle.

The uncertainty that will come with not submitting a list until the final hour has to be frustrating to GMs around the league. It is understandable from Vegas’ perspective – they are attempting to put the best roster and deals together to give the franchise a solid starting point. But the drawn out process can only serve as a detriment to the other 30 franchises who will want to know with absolute certitude what their rosters are. McPhee seems to be using every available ounce of leverage to squeeze assets out of desperate organizations, and his refusal to openly confirm any trade agreements only helps his bargaining position.

Vegas’ official roster will be unveiled Wednesday June 21st, at the NHL Awards Ceremony.

Las Vegas Says It’s Willing To Discuss Deals With Any Team

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The Las Vegas Golden Knights have to wait until tomorrow morning to see the unprotected lists that each team submitted today, but the team released a statement, suggesting that they are willing to listen to deals with any NHL team that wants to keep their rosters intact.

“The Golden Knights organization is very pleased with how the expansion draft process has gone so far, through the NHL trade freeze which took effect Saturday, June 17 at 12 noon PT. Now, General Manager George McPhee and his staff will continue to have discussions with the other 30 NHL clubs. Vegas has indicated that they will all 30 clubs every opportunity to keep their rosters intact if they would like it. This means that before the Golden Knights claim a player off a team’s unprotected list, McPhee and his staff are willing to negotiate deals so the other clubs do not have to lose a player they would otherwise like to keep.”

While it is believed that Las Vegas has multiple side deals already completed, it suggests the Golden Knights are interested in acquiring more picks and are open to making side deals with as many teams as possible. The team now can negotiate with all teams over 72 hours over who they can or will select after the unprotected rosters are released.

Las Vegas Has Several Free Agent Options As Well

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Not that the Las Vegas Golden Knights don’t have enough to do over the next few days, from going through the protection rosters, to making side deals, to participate in the NHL draft and then announce their team by June 21, but the team also needs to start thinking about free agents as well. The team has an exclusive window to negotiate with any unrestricted free agents. While the team has already inked KHL center Vadim Shipachyov to a free agent contract, more signings are sure to come. But who are their best options?

The Hockey News’ Jared Clinton has several suggestions of players the Golden Knights should consider to bolster their team for their initial season, including Arizona’s Radim Vrbata, Calgary’s Michael Stone, Washington’s Karl Alzner, Philadelphia’s Michael Del Zotto as well as San Jose’s Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau.

The scribe argues that Vrbata might be an easy choice. Although contents of the protection rosters won’t be known until tomorrow morning, Arizona is expected to provide very little in terms of available players on their roster. So going after one of the Coyotes free agents may have more meaning than a fringe prospect. Enter Vrbata. The 36 winger could be the perfect linemate for Shipachyov as he put up a 20-goal season for Arizona last season and is two years removed from a 31-goal season. And at age 36, Vrbata might come at a shorter deal than some other free agent options.

Both Thornton and Marleau are options as well. While both are expected to look for their best chance to chase a Stanley Cup, it’s conceivably possible that Las Vegas could convince one of them to be the face of the franchise. Thornton is coming off a 50-point season at age 37, but put up 82 points just the year before that. Marleau, on the other hand, had 27 goals last year and could also be a nice fit alongside Shipachyov. Also at age 37, Marleau hasn’t slowed down yet.

The rest of the suggestions that Clinton gives are blueliners, which may not be that important to the Golden Knights considering that many feel that the expansion draft will be loaded with defensive talent, but few quality forward options. Alzner was originally drafted by Las Vegas general manager George McPhee when he was with the Capitals and he could be the leader of the defense for a number of years. The 28-year-old Alzner is one of the top two free agent defensemen available (next to teammate Kevin Shattenkirk) and his defensive style might be a perfect fit in Las Vegas. The downside to Alzner is the team would lose the ability to use an expansion pick on a top prospect such as goaltender Philipp Grubauer or defenseman Nate Schmidt if they sign Alzner, so that option is not as likely.

Stone could be a good addition to the roster if they opt not to go after Alzner. Stone has been a solid top-4 defenseman for both Calgary this year and Arizona before that. Stone is more of a two-way player and might be able to provide some much-needed offense. He had just three goals and 12 assists in 64 games this year between the two teams, but had six goals and 39 points one year ago. Del Zotto is more than capable of providing offense for the Golden Knights. While not a defensive player, he’s had several good seasons, but injuries have often curtailed his career.

 

Expansion Notes: Phaneuf, McPhee, Final Decisions

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TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that nothing changed on Ottawa defenseman Dion Phaneuf’s decision to waive his no-movement clause prior to the 5pm deadline today. This doesn’t mean, however, that he won’t be traded. Phaneuf is definitely in the mix to be dealt as Ottawa agonizes over who to protect and who to leave exposed as lists are due tomorrow at 5pm. Phaneuf has been the subject of trade rumors, and it was confirmed by general manager Pierre Dorion that he’s received calls about the 32-year-old defenseman. Some pundits thought Phaneuf might waive his NMC before the 5pm deadline, but with that now passed, it will be interesting to see if he’s one of many players shuttled to another team to ease the restrictions on the list.

  • The USA Today’s Kevin Allen writes that Vegas general manager George McPhee has encouraged his staff to catch up on their sleep prior to the weekend as all NHL teams will have their protected lists submitted tomorrow. Noting that he only has 72 hours to put a team together, McPhee told Allen that teams have been straightforward with McPhee as to what they’re thinking and that it’s been in line with what McPhee and his staff expected. Allen reports that McPhee plans on informing each team who they plan on taking, so they can circle back to see if another deal can be worked out. Further, McPhee indicates that they are trying to build a balanced squad that can compete right away. He adds that they also want to acquire as many draft picks as possible to “expedite their building process.” McPhee also told Allen that even though he’s in his office at 6am Vegas time, his phone has been ringing non-stop with colleagues looking to make deals.
  • On the other side of McPhee’s phone line are 30 general managers wrangling with what they’re going to do in anticipation of the draft. The AP’s Stephen Whyno spoke with general managers who are also losing sleep over the draft, albeit for different reasons. Minnesota’s Chuck Fletcher told Whyno that he often reminds himself at 3am that he can “only lose one player–go back to sleep.” Florida’s Dale Tallon remarked that “everyone’s a little nervous, a little reluctant” in anticipation of what will happen. Tampa general manager Steve Yzerman already responded by trading Jonathan Drouin to Montreal while New York and Colorado bought out the contracts of Dan Girardi and Francois Beauchemin respectively. Meanwhile, LeBrun tweets that deals could go down to the wire after speaking with Fletcher while  Tampa Bay Times beat writer Joe Smith tweets that he sees Tampa Bay in potential talks with Fletcher since the Wild have a logjam at defense.

Expansion Primer: Ottawa Senators

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft; which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Ottawa Senators came into this season with a new coach, a new second line center and a dream that getting back to the Conference finals for just the third time in their history might be a possibility. All season people wrote them off as a weak team piggy-backing on the dominant play of their captain and best player, Erik Karlsson. With some extra help from an outstanding goaltending duo, the team shattered expectations and came within one game of the Stanley Cup Final, a successful year to be sure.

Ottawa is now looking to reload for another playoff run next season, with youngster Colin White and blue-chip prospect Thomas Chabot in tow. Their future looks quite bright, even if they did trade away some assets in questionable trade deadline deals. Just like any Cup contender, Ottawa isn’t in the best shape when it comes to the expansion draft and were dealt a further blow when Dion Phaneuf decided to not waive his no-movement clause. As protection lists are due tomorrow evening, the Senators have to make up their mind fast (if they haven’t already) and make some tough decisions.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Clarke MacArthur, Mark Stone, Kyle Turris, Zack Smith, Alexandre Burrows, Mike Blunden, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel

Defensemen:

Dion Phaneuf (NMC), Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot, Cody Ceci, Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman, Fredrik Claesson, Patrick Sieloff

Goaltenders:

Craig Anderson, Andrew Hammond, Chris Driedger

Notable Exemptions

Colin White, Logan Brown, Chris Didomenico, Thomas Chabot, Ben Harpur

Key Decisions

The first decision any team must make is whether to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie (7-3-1) or eight skaters and one goalie (8-1). The Senators are no different, as they have several interesting defensemen that project to go unprotected should they use the former, but will likely go with the latter due to their distinct lack of forward depth. Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Up front the Senators can’t afford to lose a player like Jean-Gabriel Pageau for nothing, as they learned this year when several key forwards went down to injury at the same time. Even though they play a defensive, trapping scheme, their secondary scoring depth isn’t good enough to sustain losses and with Pageau coming off an outstanding playoff run he’s a lock to be protected in a 7-3-1 format.

Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Mark Stone and Kyle Turris are the others who should feel comfortable, and even with his extremely inflated salary, Bobby Ryan may have played his way back into the team’s good books with a strong playoff run. So, decisions at forward generally come down to Clarke MacArthur, Zack Smith and Ryan Dzingel of which the team can only protect one. MacArthur is an emotional leader of the team after returning from concussion problems late in the year, but Smith and Dzingel offer more for the relatively low price tags.

Fredrik ClaessonOn defense is where it gets really tight for the Senators, as Phaneuf’s NMC and Karlsson’s no-brainer leave them with just one spot to protect Marc Methot, Cody Ceci, Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman and Fredrik Claesson. That’s a lot of names to decide between, and all of them deserve protection to some degree. Ceci, for all the hate he gets at times logged the second-most minutes on the team and combined with Phaneuf on a relatively solid second pair, while Methot was the yin to Karlsson’s yang all season.

Neither of those two hold a candle possession-wise to Wideman, while Borowiecki was the clear physical leader of the team, even leading the NHL in hits. Claesson is the real wildcard in the group, as even though he’s suited up for just 49 NHL games he showed he could handle himself in the playoffs and perhaps move up alongside Karlsson at some point in the future. At just 24 he would be another interesting option for the Golden Knights.

In net Anderson will get the call, unless the team comes to a long-term extension with Condon before the deadline. The only reason to do that would be if they think Vegas could swoop in and sign him out from under them, though that would also cause them to forfeit their selection. In terms of other free agent options there isn’t much to see on Ottawa.

Projected Protection List

F Bobby Ryan
F Mike Hoffman
F Derick Brassard
F Mark Stone
F Kyle Turris
F Zack Smith
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau

D Dion Phaneuf (NMC)
D Erik Karlsson
D Cody Ceci

G Craig Anderson

In the end, Ceci offers too much due to his age and cheap contract to let walk for nothing. At just 23, and signed for only $2.8MM this season he still exists as an excellent asset, if not a perfect fit for the Senators system. He could easily used in a trade, or improve next season and beyond as he heads into his prime. Leaving the other defensemen unprotected though isn’t a move GM Pierre Dorion wants though, which is likely why Phaneuf’s name has been floating around in trade speculation for the last couple of days.

Ultimately the Senators could probably stand to trade two of their defensemen before the draft just to avoid losing them for nothing, but it’s more likely that they’ll just bite the bullet and lose a player of value. There is also the possibility of making a side-deal with Vegas in order to take someone else, but there has been no indication so far that Dorion has been pursuing that idea.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: New York Rangers

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

Until today, the Expansion Draft plan for GM Jeff Gorton and the New York Rangers remained unclear. The time had come and gone to ask overpaid blueliners Marc Staal and Dan Girardi or the underachieving Rick Nash to waive their No-Movement clauses and the team declined. They were also cutting it close should they choose to extend one of their impending free agent forwards and make their expansion decisions easier, with protection lists due on Saturday. New York has one of the deepest groups of forwards in the NHL, even with rookies Jimmy Vesey and Pavel Buchnevich draft-exempt, yet the team had not taken any steps to protect their core. At least not until this morning…

The Rangers announced two moves earlier today, the first being an extension for impending restricted free agent forward Matt Puempel. With term now on his contract, Puempel meets all the criteria to be one of two mandatory forwards exposed in the Expansion Draft, saving them from otherwise having to expose a core forward. The second announcement was the long-awaited end to the Girardi era, as the stated their plans to buy out the veteran tomorrow, opening up a slot on the blue line for them to protect the underrated Nick Holden.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Rick Nash (NMC), Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner, Mika Zibanejad, Jesper Fast, Daniel Catenacci, Matt Puempel, Oscar Lindberg, Nicklas Jensen, Brandon Pirri

Defense
Marc Staal (NMC), Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein, Nick Holden, Steven Kampfer, Michael Paliotta, Adam Clendening

Goaltender
Henrik Lundqvist, Antti Raanta, Mackenzie Skapski

Notable Exemptions

Jimmy Vesey, Brady Skjei, Pavel Buchnevich, Cristoval Nieves

Key Decisions

With Rick Nash holding on to his No-Movement clause, the Rangers have just six spots left to protect a large group of impact forwards: Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan, J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner, and restricted free agent Mika Zibanejad. Despite a unexpected outburst of 40 points in his first season in New York, Grabner is the easy target to point at as not like the rest of the Rangers’ young and mostly homegrown talents. Many Ranger fans wouldn’t have minded holding on to Grabner, at $1.65MM next year, over Nash, who will make $7.8MM again in 2017-18 after recording less than 40 points in three of the past four seasons.

It’s hard to make a case for any of the other six being offered up instead of Grabner. Zuccarello is the oldest of the group, but he’s still only 29 and has led the team in scoring in three of the past four seasons. Zucarello is almost certainly safe. At just 23 years old, Miller has taken a bigger and bigger role for the Blueshirts with each year and is perhaps the franchise’s best building block. He too is a near guarantee. While both Stepan and Kreider have heard whispers of trade rumors in each of the past two seasons, with Stepan’s growing louder in recent days, both are far too good to give up for free and will likely be protected. After trading away Derick Brassard last off-season to acquire Zibanejad, it seems highly unlikely that the team would risk losing him already, even if his first season in New York was marred by injury. Finally, Hayes, who has done nothing but excel in any role the Rangers have given him since signing with the Rangers out of college three years ago, and it would be a major surprise to see them choose Grabner over him.

Thus, it seems Grabner will likely join Puempel as the Rangers’ unprotected forwards and with the decisions in net and on the blue line pretty clear-cut, the Rangers have gone from a confusing expansion scenario about 24 hours ago to one of the easiest teams to project.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Rick Nash (NMC)
Mats Zuccarello
J.T. Miller
Derek Stepan
Chris Kreider
Mika Zibanejad
Kevin Hayes

Defensemen

Marc Staal (NMC)
Ryan McDonagh
Nick Holden

Goalie

Henrik Lundqvist

The Rangers barely have any decisions to make in regards to their protection on defense and in net. All-world keeper Henrik Lundqvist is obviously safe, leaving skilled backup Antti Raanta as an intriguing target for the Golden Knights. Vegas GM George McPhee has stated that the team could select many promising goalies in the Expansion Draft and guage who to keep and who to trade away after the fact. Raanta could indeed be one of those picks.

On the blue line, the buy out of Dan Girardi will leave one more spot open to join go to the team’s best defender and captain, Ryan McDonagh, and Marc Staal, who was not asked to waive his No-Movement clause. The only real candidate to fill that spot is Nick Holden. Kevin Klein, who is reportedly mulling retirement, meets the 40/70 criteria to fill the one-defenseman exposure quota, but is not a viable target for Vegas. The only other defenseman under contract for the Rangers is journeyman Steven Kampfer, another player who would be a strange selection for the Golden Knights. Restricted free agent Adam Clendening, despite showing signs of upside in 2016-17, has already been informed that he will not receiving a qualifying offer and will become an unrestricted free agent, like several other Rangers blue liners, and again it is unlikely that the Knights will waste picks on UFA’s.  For all intents and purposes, the Girardi buyout ensures that no further changes will be coming to the New York defense in the coming week.

If Vegas passes on Raanta, they will likely instead turn to offense and, more likely than not, Michael Grabner. After his best season since he nearly won the Calder Trophy in 2010-11, Grabner appears to be back at the top of his game and could be hard to pass up for a Vegas team that will have a hard time finding scoring in the Expansion Draft and this summer’s free agency class. The loss of Grabner would be far greater than that of Jesper Fast or Oscar Lindberg or any other possible player, though don’t rule out the possibility that the Knights simply take youth and upside over established skill.

The situation in New York has gained great clarity today and now they face one of the more predictable expansion situations in the NHL. However, that doesn’t mean that they will escape the draft unscathed. A deep, talented team like the Rangers seems destined to take a hit next week.

Expansion Primer: Boston Bruins

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

While the Boston Bruins have a legion of talented young players pushing for major roles, they are still a team that is defined by a veteran core: 2011 Stanley Cup winners Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Krejci, Zdeno Chara, and Tuukka Rask. Add young mainstays like David Pastrnak and Torey Krug and 2016 free agent acquisition David Backes to the mix and it may seem like the Bruins would be in a tough position with expansion like many other deep veteran teams.

However, the expansion process, while burdensome for some, gives the Bruins just enough space to protect all of their most valuable players including that entire core. They still face some tough decisions, but none that will drastically alter the franchise on June 21st.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
David Krejci (NMC), Patrice Bergeron (NMC), Brad Marchand, David Backes (NMC), Matt Beleskey, Jimmy Hayes, Riley Nash, David Pastrnak, Ryan Spooner, Tim Schaller, Alexander Khokhlachev

Defense
Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara (NMC), Adam McQuaid, Kevan Miller, Colin Miller, Joe Morrow

Goaltender
Tuukka Rask (NMC), Anton Khudobin, Malcolm Subban

Notable Exemptions

Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, Frank Vatrano, Austin Czarnik, Zane McIntyre

Key Decisions

With Bergeron, Krejci, and Backes having No-Movement clauses and Marchand and Pastrnak two of 2016-17 top scorers, Boston is locked into a 7-3 protection scheme. Chara also has a No-Movement clause and Krug isn’t going anywhere so that’s five forward spots and two defensive spots locked up (Rask has a NMC as well if that was even a question). So which three Bruins get the final spots?

There have been many rumors this off-season, and even before the season ended, that perhaps Ryan Spooner’s time had run out in Boston. The 25-year-old center clashed with former coach Claude Julien and, after a brief rejuvenation, also lost play time under replacement Bruce Cassidy, including scratches in the playoffs. However, Spooner is still a top-end passer and a power play expert and the Bruins won’t just let him go for nothing. If Spooner hasn’t been traded before protection lists are due, he is guaranteed a slot. Whether or not he is still traded after the Expansion Draft remains an unknown.

For the final forward spot, the Bruins face a tough decision, but one with few negative repercussions. Jimmy Hayes has been a disaster in Boston and Tim Schaller is nothing more than fourth liner, so neither likely even gets consideration, nor would Vegas be interested unless otherwise incentivized, as has been rumored with Hayes. Alexander Khokhlachev left the organization last summer to play in the KHL, and little attention has been paid to his absence. The Golden Knights have drawn the interest of Russian players, but drafting Khokhlachev, who never proved his NHL viability in  Thus, the decision comes down to Matt Beleskey and Riley Nash. Beleskey had a career year in Boston in 2015-16, the first of a five-year deal, and seemed to fit in well with the Bruins. After a brutal, injury-riddled 2016-17 campaign, that fit is in doubt and there have been rumors that the team might look to trade a pick to Vegas in order for them to take the remaining three years and $11.4MM off of their hands. However, a healthy Beleskey could be far more valuable than Nash, who struggled to produce in his first season with the Bruins. Yet, Nash is a versatile veteran forward and a key penalty killer who makes just $900K next year. Hayes, Beleskey, and Nash all fulfill the 40/70 qualification and two will be exposed, so the team won’t have to worry about that requirement.

On defense, the decision holds some more weight. If Boston is unable to entice the Knights into selecting Hayes or Beleskey, it seems most likely that a defenseman will be chosen. The team must choose whether they want to protect long-time Bruin Adam McQuaid, exciting young player Colin Miller, or perhaps the most complete player of the group, Kevan Miller. Joe Morrow was once a top prospect, but his time to reach those lofty expectations in Boston has come and gone and the Bruins would be happy if Vegas chose to take him instead of one of the other two. Assuming that doesn’t happen, this becomes a big decision. Colin Miller is just 24 years old and an offensively-minded puck-mover, whereas Kevan Miller and McQuaid are very similar stay-at-home types. Colin Miller was also a major piece of the Milan Lucic trade from just two years ago. However, his development has had its fair share of bumps and Kevan Miller has definitely established himself as a more complete player. McQuaid also is in the mix and could be the beneficiary of club loyalty and a desire to have a seasoned vet behind young centerpieces Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo on the right side of the blue line. All three players meet the 40/70 qualification and have term on their contracts, so again meeting that one-player quota won’t be a concern.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

David Krejci (NMC)
Patrice Bergeron (NMC)
David Backes (NMC)
Brad Marchand
David Pastrnak
Ryan Spooner
Riley Nash

Defensemen

Zdeno Chara (NMC)
Torey Krug
Colin Miller

Goalie

Tuukka Rask (NMC)

The general rule of expansion (and just common sense) is that if you’re allegedly willing to trade a draft pick to move a player, like Matt Beleskey, you’re probably happy with taking the risk of leaving him unprotected as well. Riley Nash played his best hockey toward the end of the season and that effort level next season at only $900K is tough to pass up. Still, the Bruins are unlikely to lose a forward, unless they do make a trade, because of the superiority of the players that they could potentially expose on defense. Kevan Miller is likely the best defenseman of the three, but Colin Miller brings a unique skill set from he and Adam McQuaid and has youth and potential on his side. Vegas would likely jump on the chance to take a young, offensive defenseman like Colin Miller, while there may be several defenseman of similar caliber to Kevan Miller and McQuaid available. Protecting Colin Miller may in fact be the Bruins’ best chance of retaining all three. If Vegas does pass up on a defenseman, it will be to take a goalie. No, not Anton Khudobin. Khudobin finished the season with a stretch of some of his best play since his last stint in Boston, but Vegas has more than enough options for backups that Khudobin won’t be of interest. Instead, young keeper Malcolm Subban could be the pick. Subban has been passed up by Zane McIntyre on Boston’s organizational depth chart and simply doesn’t appear destined to be an NHL regular with the Bruins at any point. Vegas GM George McPhee has stated that the team will likely draft many goalies and a minor leaguer with some promise would not be a wasted pick. Subban would also be the most harmless pick the Bruins could endure.

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