For a while now, there has been plenty of speculation that Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews intends to set a new benchmark for the highest AAV when he signs his next contract. In a recent appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio link), Nick Kypreos suggested that the two sides are believed to be in agreement on a cap hit at or around $13.5MM which would come in well above Nathan MacKinnon’s $12.6MM price tag. At this point, the discussions between the two sides are focused on term. Matthews took a five-year deal off his entry-level contract instead of a max-term agreement and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him take a shorter-term pact again with an eye on landing one more significant contract down the road.
Maple Leafs Rumors
Examining Toronto’s Further Cap-Cutting Options
While today’s news that the Maple Leafs would be placing goaltender Matt Murray on LTIR to start the season helps to alleviate Toronto’s salary cap situation, they still have some work to do. Using CapFriendly’s numbers, they still sit a little more than $2MM above the Upper Limit of the salary cap (even with Jake Muzzin being LTIR-bound himself) which means they have some paring down to do.
The recent arbitration award to Ilya Samsonov has opened up a second buyout window that they can utilize within the next 48 hours. However, there are specific rules in place as to who can be bought out in this second window. The player must make at least $4MM and have been on the roster last season. Most of the other Toronto players that meet the criteria (and there aren’t many) have a zero percent chance of being bought out.
One possible exception is defenseman T.J. Brodie. While they certainly wouldn’t want to part with the 33-year-old, the back-loaded structure of his contract would actually see the Maple Leafs clear the full $5MM AAV off the books for next season, clearing that gap and actually giving them some flexibility to add. On the flip side, it would add $2.5MM onto the books for 2024-25 which certainly isn’t ideal with Auston Matthews and William Nylander needing pricey new deals next summer. Speculatively, if they were open to parting with Brodie, a trade with 50% retention would free up $2.5MM in cap room and could yield a positive-value return, even in a market that doesn’t have a lot of financial wiggle room.
Assuming that’s not a route Toronto wants to take, let’s move on to some of the smaller cost-cutting options, sticking with the defense first. Conor Timmins has a two-year deal that begins next season, one that carries a $1.1MM AAV. While it’s generally viewed as bad form to trade a player that soon after signing an extension, Treliving wasn’t the one that gave him that deal. Even if a trade option isn’t available, the contract can be fully buried in the minors without a lingering cap charge. That might be their best option, actually, allowing them to keep Timmins in the organization a little longer and if another LTIR-eligible injury arises, he could then be brought up.
However, if head coach Sheldon Keefe wants to hold onto Timmins in the NHL, then Timothy Liljegren could become a cost-cutting candidate. Signed for a reasonable $1.4MM next season, the 24-year-old has shown enough that they could get a solid return for his services although it would take another perceived part of their long-term plans out of the system, joining Rasmus Sandin who was moved at the deadline last season.
If Toronto parts with Brodie, it becomes much less likely that they’ll do something with Timmins or Liljegren as they’ll need them in the lineup on a regular basis.
Up front, there are presently 14 forwards on their projected roster. They only need 12 so some savings can come from here. Nicholas Robertson is coming off another shoulder injury and is waiver-exempt so his $797K is an easy one to pare down.
The other one isn’t as easy. Sam Lafferty ($1.15MM) could be a luxury they could no longer afford and his contract could be fully buried in the minors if he was to clear waivers. With the year he had, there could be a taker in training camp but with several capable role players still unsigned, his trade value right now would be limited. Dylan Gambrell ($750K) is someone who might pass through unclaimed but he’d yield the fewest cap savings. Pontus Holmberg ($800K) and Matthew Knies ($925K) are waiver-exempt and would save a bit more money than Gambrell but in a perfect world, they’re both in the opening lineup.
The other possible cap casualty could be winger Calle Jarnkrok. At $2.1MM, his cap hit is hardly above market value but it might be a value that they can’t afford anymore while moving him outright would get them back into compliance. However, the trade market for him might not be the best right now with other bottom-six players available in free agency and not necessarily needing the three years that Jarnkrok has left on his deal.
As you can see, there are certainly multiple paths that the Maple Leafs can take to get compliant. But one way or the other, they will need to either part with some serviceable veterans or carry a minimum-sized roster to get there. Treliving has added some pieces this summer including veterans John Klingberg, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Max Domi but some subtraction should now be coming.
Maple Leafs To Place Matt Murray On LTIR
The Toronto Maple Leafs have announced that they will be placing goaltender Matt Murray on the LTIR prior to the start of the 2023-24 season. No details on Murray’s injury were provided in the release, which will surely lead to a lot of speculation in the coming days. With Murray joining Jake Muzzin on LTIR, the Maple Leafs will remain $2.1MM over the salary cap, meaning that they will need to do some cap gymnastics in the coming weeks to try and get under the $83.5MM salary cap by October.
Murray’s first season in Toronto was a difficult one for the former two-time Stanley Cup champion as he battled inconsistency and injuries once again. The Thunder Bay, Ontario native hasn’t been able to steady his game or remain in the net since his time with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Murray was dealt by the Penguins to the Ottawa Senators in October 2020 and quickly signed a four-year extension worth $24MM. The deal was heavily criticized at the time as being too rich and too long for a goaltender that had struggled to stay healthy and consistent.
The Senators were then forced into a cap dump last summer as they traded Murray to the Maple Leafs along with two draft picks for future considerations. Trading for Murray was a good idea in theory from former general manager Kyle Dubas, however, in reality, the deal never worked out for Toronto as Murray was unable to bounce back or stay healthy. Murray dressed in just 26 games going 14-8-2 with a 3.01 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage.
The move will effectively end any talks of a buyout, which is ultimately the best outcome for the player and team. Matt Murray will retain his entire $8MM salary for the upcoming season and the Leafs will be able to use the entire $4.7MM of the cap space that would have been allocated to Murray.
It is quite the fall from grace for a netminder who looked like a budding superstar just six years ago. Murray won back-to-back Stanley Cups with the Pittsburgh Penguins as a rookie and looked like he was the future of the Penguins when the team moved on from franchise icon Marc-Andre Fleury. However, Murray’s career began to derail a short time later due to multiple injuries and inconsistent play and since then he has been unable to right the ship.
AHL Notes: Akhtiamov, Empey, Callin
Sporting a solid goaltending trio of Joseph Woll, Erik Kallgren, and Keith Petruzzelli, last season, there were some soft expectations that goaltender Artur Akhtyamov would be making the move to North America to join the Toronto Marlies. Drafted in the fourth round of the 2020 NHL Draft, Akhtyamov impressed in the VHL last season, leading the Toronto Maple Leafs to sign the young goalie to a three-year, $2.55MM entry-level contract.
Instead, it appears that Toronto believes that Akhtyamov could use more seasoning overseas, and will be spending the 2023-24 season on loan with Ak Bars Kazan of the Kontinental Hockey League (Tweet Link). There will be a lot of pressure on Akhtyamov to join Ak Bars, as they recently won the regular season title of top team in the league’s Eastern Conference, and made it to Game Seven of the Gagarin Cup Finals.
Playing for Neftyanik Almetievsk of the VHL last season, Akhtyamov accrued a 20-12-6 record, posting a .943 SV% and a 1.74 GAA in 39 games. He also managed to play in six Petrov Cup playoff games, managing a .952 SV% and a 1.53 GAA. With seemingly nothing left to prove in the minor league levels in Russia, the Maple Leafs are hoping that Akhtyamov can build on his recent success, and become an option for them in the net shortly.
Other notes:
- Playing primarily with the Tucson Roadrunners for the last several seasons, veteran forward Tyson Empey will be making the move to Pennsylvania (Link). Now joining the Hershey Bears of the AHL, Empey will now become a part of their repeat effort for the Calder Cup next season. Playing in 79 games across two years in the Arizona Coyotes system, Empey has four goals and 11 assists all time, but has also accrued 127 PIMs in that time as well. Taking into account his play in the AHL over his career, it is reasonable to assume Empey will be lower on the depth chart in Hershey and may see himself become an extra forward altogether.
- The Springfield Thunderbirds (St.Louis Blues AHL affiliate) announced today they have re-signed Drew Callin for the 2023-24 AHL season. Last year, Callin became a serviceable depth piece for the Thunderbirds, scoring eight goals and nine points in 67 games played. He did manage one pointless playoff game, as Springfield was quickly ousted by the Hartford Wolf Pack in the First Round of the 2023 Calder Cup playoffs. A long-time veteran of the ECHL, Callin will now continue his career with the only AHL team he has ever known.
Ilya Samsonov Contract Settled Via Arbitration
Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov has received a $3.55MM award (one-year) in his arbitration case, according to The Athletic’s James Mirtle. Samsonov had filed for $4.9MM, while the Maple Leafs had filed for $2.4MM.
This award comes just under the mid-point between the two parties’ filings and is just a little bit less than the $3.75MM we projected in our detailed breakdown of Samsonov’s arbitration case.
The Maple Leafs don’t have much cap space to work with, especially after signing players such as Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, John Klingberg, and Ryan Reaves to NHL deals this summer.
That’s why they were likely hoping Samsonov’s deal would fall closer to their filing, though those hopes may have been a bit optimistic given Samsonov’s performance.
The 26-year-old 2015 first-rounder made the most of his one-year change-of-scenery deal from last summer, winning the number-one job in head coach Sheldon Keefe’s crease.
In 42 games he went 27-10-5 with a .919 save percentage and 2.33 goals-against-average. He even helped Toronto to the playoff series victory they’d long been aching for, his 31-save performance in Game Six against Tampa Bay leading the way.
With this decision made, the most important and valuable thing the Maple Leafs have gained is cost certainty. They now know exactly what their expected tandem of Samsonov and Joseph Woll will cost them next season, which will help guide what they do moving forward in the offseason.
They still have Matt Murray on their books at a $4.687MM cap hit, and are likely to pursue avenues to remove Murray’s deal from their cap sheet. A 72-hour buyout window will open for the team to utilize, and buying out Murray would reduce Murray’s cap hit to just $675.5k for next season at a cost of $2MM in dead money in 2024-25.
They could also elect to try to trade Murray, though the modified 10-team no-trade clause he possesses on his contract could make finding a trade at this stage of the offseason difficult.
For Samsonov, this contract is a compromise between what he filed for and what the Maple Leafs wanted to pay. It’s more of an opportunity than anything else, as he’s set himself up to hit unrestricted free agency next summer. If he can have another strong season between the pipes in Toronto, he may set himself up to be the top UFA goalie on the market behind Connor Hellebuyck.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Toronto Maple Leafs Hire Guy Boucher, Mike Van Ryn
The Toronto Maple Leafs have hired two coaches to head coach Sheldon Keefe’s staff: former Ottawa Senators and Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Guy Boucher, and former St. Louis Blues assistant coach Mike Van Ryn.
In Boucher, the Maple Leafs have added a coach with significant experience running an NHL bench. Although Boucher never coached a fourth season in any of his stops as a bench boss, even at the junior level, he could be considered a serial winner who managed to go on a long playoff run in every place he coached.
In his final season in the QMJHL, Boucher won 54 of 68 games with the Drummondville Voltigeurs and a league title. In his one season with the AHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs, Boucher went 52-17-11 and got to the third round of the Calder Cup playoffs.
In the NHL, Boucher’s Lightning team nearly beat the eventual champion Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference Final, falling just short in a Game Seven.
Boucher’s SC Bern team in 2014-15 made it to the second round of the Swiss NL playoffs, and then Boucher’s Ottawa Senators went on a miracle run in his very first season there, coming one goal short of dethroning the defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins and reaching the Senators’ first cup final since 2007.
Sure, it must be noted that at each of Boucher’s NHL stops, the wheels fell off almost immediately after he went on his initial long playoff run. And given how much Boucher relied on his signature 1-3-1 defensive system, something he is highly unlikely to be able to deploy as Keefe’s assistant, one wonders if he’s going to be at his most valuable in this role. But seeing as Toronto is desperate to immediately go on the type of long playoff run Boucher has specialized in, it’s easy to see why they’ve targeted him.
As for Van Ryn, he’s also got the type of playoff experience behind the bench the Maple Leafs are hoping will translate to their own on-ice results. Van Ryn won a Stanley Cup with St. Louis in his very first season there, and does have prior experience coaching in Ontario as he spent three seasons with the OHL’s Kitchener Rangers, including one as head coach.
Per The Hockey News’ David Alter, Boucher will run the Maple Leafs’ power play while Van Ryn runs the team’s defense, with assistance from Dean Chynoweth, who will be in charge of the penalty kill.
The hiring of the two men completes Keefe’s coaching staff, which already boasts assistants Chynoweth and Manny Malhotra, goaltending coach Curtis Sanford, and video coaches Jordan Bean and Sam Kim.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Arbitration Breakdown: Ilya Samsonov
While many players who elected salary arbitration have already settled with their teams, several players are still headed toward hearings, which start tomorrow with the Chicago Blackhawks and forward Philipp Kurashev. Slated for Friday, though, is one of the more intriguing cases still unresolved: Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last night that the two sides are still actively working on a short-term deal, which could get done over the next 48 hours and avoid going to arbitration. Arbitration is usually something teams look to avoid, given they’ll have to agree to any deal awarded under the $4.5MM mark per season. But in Toronto’s case, it’s a good thing – the team is already over the salary cap even with defenseman Jake Muzzin stashed on long-term injured reserve, meaning certainty around Samsonov’s cap hit next season is crucial for them to know exactly how much space to clear in follow-up moves. They’ll have financial assurance with Samsonov one way or another within the next four days.
Filings
Team: $2.4MM
Player: $4.9MM
Midpoint: $3.65MM
(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)
The Numbers
Last season was, far and away, Samsonov’s best performance to date. A Washington Capitals first-round selection in 2015, Samsonov had shown flashes of strong play during his time in the nation’s capital, especially during his rookie season in 2019-20 when he recorded a 16-6-2 record, .913 save percentage and finished 12th in Calder Trophy voting. After that, things went progressively downhill for the Russian netminder, though, seeing his numbers dip far below league average as injuries limited his playing time. After posting a relatively poor .896 save percentage with the Capitals in 2021-22, he was surprisingly cut loose from the team entirely, hitting the UFA market at age 25 after Washington didn’t issue him a qualifying offer.
Toronto extended him a one-year, $1.8MM prove-it deal to complete their tandem with Matt Murray, and Samsonov soon took over the de facto starting role for himself after a series of injuries kept Murray out of the crease for much of the season. While depth netminders Erik Kallgren and Joseph Woll also found their way into action, Samsonov started a career-high 40 games last year and put together the highest level of play from him in the NHL, even if he was inconsistent at times.
He may not be in the upper echelon of starting netminders, especially with only one top-flight-level season under his belt. Still, he outdueled countryman Andrei Vasilevskiy just a few months ago and was perhaps the most significant reason Toronto won their first playoff series in nearly two decades. An injury early in the Second Round kept him out of the last few games of playoff action, though.
With Toronto in a tight financial situation and Samsonov not having a proven track record, it makes sense why the Maple Leafs want to go short-term with their current starter. They do have Woll in the pipeline, who’s expected to be the full-time backup next season and could potentially be ready for the starting job in a few years. That said, Toronto would surely like to settle with Samsonov on a two- or three-year deal to solidify consistency in their crease.
Because Samsonov would be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2024, he can only sign a one-year deal via arbitration – not two. If the two sides want a longer-term deal, they must settle before the hearing.
2022-23 Stats: 42 GP, 27-10-5, 4 SO, 2,476 mins, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%
Career Stats: 131 GP, 79-32-13, 10 SO, 7,341 mins, 2.65 GAA, .908 SV%
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation.
Vitek Vanecek (Devils) – If you’re looking for the framework of a potential deal, look no further than Samsonov’s former tandem partner in Washington. After two average seasons as a tandem netminder in D.C., Vanecek’s RFA rights were traded to New Jersey last offseason before he signed a three-year, $3.4MM AAV contract with the club. Coming off seasons of 37 and 42 games played and .908 save percentages in both seasons, Vanecek might have had consistency on his side more so than Samsonov, but he hadn’t reached the level Samsonov has at times throughout his young career. The latter is a bit of a unicorn in recent RFA goalie signings, and it makes sense why he’d want more than his ex-teammate, but Vanecek’s deal falls near the midpoint of the two filings.
Alexandar Georgiev (Avalanche) – Just a few days before Vanecek signed a deal with his new team in 2022, Georgiev signed the same contract with the Colorado Avalanche. Georgiev had more experience and was perhaps a more highly-touted solution as a starter than Vanecek, but he was coming off a rough year with the New York Rangers that saw his save percentage dip below the .900 mark. Samsonov’s performance last season was much better than either Vanecek’s or Georgiev’s before they signed their deals, though, something he’ll likely leverage in his hearing to make his case for an AAV in the $3.5-$4.5MM range.
Projection
This is the first arbitration case of the summer where the filing values have been publically exchanged, so it’s a bit more challenging to project a first-of-the-offseason deal, especially when there’s a lack of solid comparables in 2023 from which to compare Samsonov’s situation.
On a one-year deal with the potential to cash in for big money on the UFA market in 2024, though, it seems unlikely the arbitrator would rule significantly in Samsonov’s favor. The filings seem pretty reasonable based on past cases, and they’re positioned to grant Samsonov a deal right around the midpoint of the filings, potentially a bit higher. Expect something in the $3.75MM range on a one-year pact for Samsonov if the two sides don’t settle before Friday’s hearing.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Maple Leafs Notes: Nylander, Matthews, Samsonov
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on the NHL Network today that he believes that the Toronto Maple Leafs and forward William Nylander are at a standstill in their contract negotiations. He goes on to say that he doesn’t think a contract will get done anytime soon unless one of the sides budges dramatically from their position. Friedman’s belief is that Nylander doesn’t want to take a discount to remain with the Maple Leafs if their other top-end players aren’t willing to take one too.
It’s hard to fault Nylander’s logic, he has been playing on a contract well under his market value for a half-decade while several of his teammates have been collecting annual salaries north of $10MM. Chris Johnston reported weeks ago on the Chris Johnston show that Nylander’s ask on his next contract is an annual salary of around $10MM, while the Maple Leafs are countering with an extension offering him between $8MM and $9MM per year. Given the way things are going, it appears that Auston Matthews next contract could be a big factor in whether the Leafs can lock up Nylander to a long-term extension.
Should the Maple Leafs opt to dangle Nylander in the trade market there would be a long lineup of suitors for the 27-year-old. Nylander is coming off back-to-back 80+ point seasons and has become much more responsible with the puck as his career has gone on. He is no longer regarded as a turnover machine as he might have been in earlier parts of his career.
In other Maple Leafs notes:
- Speaking of Auston Matthews, Elliotte Friedman had a small update on the Maple Leafs star forward. Friedman told the NHL Network that he believes Matthews will sign an extension very soon that will be between three and five years. While it’s hardly a surprise to hear that Matthews is once again looking at signing a shorter-term deal in hopes of maximizing his earning potential, it is surprising to hear that Matthews would consider a five-year contract that would take him through most of his prime and into his early 30s. Even at 31 Matthews will likely be able to fetch a lucrative long-term deal, but he may not be able to command as much money as he could as a 29-year-old hitting free agency.
- Friedman also reported that he believes that the Maple Leafs don’t want to go beyond a three-year extension with restricted free-agent goaltender Ilya Samsonov. The Maple Leafs and Samsonov are expected to go to arbitration on July 21, meaning that arbitration numbers will be exchanged tomorrow morning. The 26-year-old netminder was terrific in his first season with Toronto posting a .919 save percentage to go along with a 2.33 goals-against average and a 27-10-5 record. The Maple Leafs are currently over the salary cap meaning that they will need to shuffle around money to fit in Samsonov’s new deal when it is completed.
Toronto Maple Leafs Hire Derek Clancey
The Toronto Maple Leafs have filled out their front office, hiring former Vancouver Canucks executive Derek Clancey as assistant general manager with a player personnel specialty today, according to a team release.
Vancouver announced Clancey’s departure just minutes before Toronto picked him up. In Toronto, the 54-year-old executive reunites with general manager Brad Treliving, with whom he served as a pro scout in 2021-22 while both were members of the Calgary Flames.
Toronto is now Clancey’s third team in as many seasons, but don’t take that as a poor reflection on his career resume. Joining the NHL ranks in 2007, he was a part of the Pittsburgh Penguins front office for all four of their Stanley Cup Final appearances in 2008, 2019, 2015, and 2016, first as a pro scout before transitioning to their director of professional scouting.
Clancey is the third major addition/replacement in Toronto’s front office this season, joining Treliving and special assistant to the GM Shane Doan as the new faces among Maple Leafs’ executives. His focus with Toronto will undoubtedly be on pro talent evaluation, and his input will be highly sought after when discussing potential trades, waiver claims, or free agent signings.
Canucks general manager Jim Rutherford later released a statement, confirming Vancouver would not pursue a replacement for Clancey and will collectively replace his role among the other assistant general managers.
Denis Malgin Signs Long-Term In Switzerland
Swiss forward Denis Malgin is departing the NHL for his home country for the second and likely final time. The 26-year-old unrestricted free agent signed a five-year deal with NL club ZSC Lions today, keeping him overseas through 2027-28 and through his age 31 season.
Malgin split last season with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche thanks to a mid-season trade. After recording career-highs with 13 goals and 65 games played last year, though, the Avalanche did not issue him a qualifying offer, making him a UFA.
Oddly enough, Malgin recently walked away from a multi-year commitment he signed with ZSC in 2021. After spending the 2020-21 campaign on loan to Swiss club Lausanne from the Maple Leafs, Malgin signed a four-year deal with ZSC that offseason and was one of the best players in the league in the first year of the deal, recording 52 points in 48 games. He walked away from the remaining three years to rejoin the Maple Leafs last summer, who retained his rights with a qualifying offer in 2021.
It seems unlikely he’d terminate with the same club twice, however, especially after one NHL comeback that, while successful, obviously didn’t translate to any offers on the open market that he was interested in. The fourth-round pick of the Florida Panthers in 2015 will return to ZSC on a team stacked with former NHL forwards such as Sven Andrighetto, Rudolfs Balcers, Jesper Froden, and Juho Lammikko, although he’s the biggest fish of the bunch.
If it is the end of the road for Malgin in the NHL, he wraps up his career with 41 goals, 40 assists, 81 points, and a -16 rating in 257 games split between the Panthers, Maple Leafs, and Avalanche.