Maple Leafs Rumors

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $93,989,461 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Matthew Knies (two years, $925K)
F Fraser Minten (three years, $845K)

Knies made an immediate impression late last season, eventually playing his way into Toronto’s playoff lineup.  He should be counted on to play a regular role this year but if he spends a lot of time on the third line as he’s starting on, it’ll be hard to make a case for an early extension.  If he progresses as planned, a bridge deal could push around the $2.5MM mark.  Minten somewhat surprisingly made the team after a strong training camp.  It’s possible his stint is a short-term one so it’s a bit premature to forecast what his next deal might cost.  Neither deal has performance bonuses (no player in the organization has any) so they’re not as risk of carryover charges on that front.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Tyler Bertuzzi ($5.5MM, UFA)
D T.J. Brodie ($5MM, UFA)
F Max Domi ($3MM, UFA)
D Mark Giordano ($800K, UFA)
F Noah Gregor ($775K, RFA)
D John Klingberg ($4.15MM, UFA)
D Timothy Liljegren ($1.4MM, RFA)
G Matt Murray ($4.6875MM, UFA)*
D Jake Muzzin ($5.625MM, UFA)
F William Nylander ($6.962MM, UFA)
G Ilya Samsonov ($3.55MM, UFA)

*-Ottawa is retaining another $1.5625MM on Murray’s deal.

Nylander is shaping up to be one of the more interesting pending unrestricted free agents.  He has certainly outproduced his contract, becoming a legitimate top-line threat.  Now, the team has dabbled with him playing down the middle (which could resume if/when Minten is returned to junior) and even killing penalties.  If he does well in those situations, his value will only go up.  It’s believed his asking price is at least $10MM on a max-term agreement, a price tag Toronto isn’t willing to pay at the moment.  Negotiations were hard-fought last time around with a deal coming down to mere minutes before the deadline that would have made him ineligible.  It won’t come quite to that point next summer though as he’ll have enough suitors to get a deal done quickly if he makes it to the open market.

Bertuzzi’s market didn’t materialize to his liking this past summer.  Seeking a long-term deal and bigger money, he landed neither of those, quickly pivoting instead to a pillow contract.  He’s a good fit inside their top six and if things go as planned (while staying healthy), he should line himself up for at least a small raise and a multi-year deal next summer.  The same can’t be said for Domi, a player who has bounced around the last few years.  His two UFA contracts have been at this price point and unless he drastically improves (or regresses), it’s reasonable to think the next one should check in close to this as well.  Gregor was able to convert a PTO into a full deal after being non-tendered by San Jose.  Arbitration eligibility could work against him next summer as this is a roster spot the Maple Leafs will need to keep at the league minimum while he could make a case for a bit more than that if he holds down a spot on the fourth line.

Brodie is capable of logging big minutes but, in recent years, his offensive production hasn’t been the most consistent.  If he’s putting up 30 points as he was in Calgary, this price tag is one he can justify.  When that’s not the case, it becomes an above-market deal and considering he’ll be 34 next summer, he might be hard-pressed to command this much at that time.   Klingberg, for the second year in a row, had to settle for a pillow deal with the hopes of bolstering his market for the following summer.  On a more offensive-minded squad, he might have a better chance of succeeding this time around.  A big raise might not be likely but a multi-year agreement might be in reach.

Liljegren has been eased into the league with last season being his heaviest workload even though it was still in a limited role.  On a thinner back end depth-wise, that should change as in-season injuries come into play.  If he does well, he should be in a position to push for $1MM more than his $1.5MM qualifying offer.  But if he remains in a depth role, Toronto will be trying to keep his price closer to where it is now.  Giordano left a lot of money on the table to stay with his hometown team.  Yes, he’s now the oldest player in the league but he can provide a lot of surplus value on this agreement.  If he plays another season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it around this price tag as he aims for one last push for a Stanley Cup.

Muzzin and Murray are both done for the season already and have been placed on LTIR.  Muzzin, who was recently named as a scout for the Maple Leafs, is likely done for his career while Murray’s situation isn’t quite as certain.  The two sides opted to wait several months for surgery, allowing him to stay on LTIR for the whole season but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him try to catch on somewhere.  However, with his injury history, it’ll be on a contract that’s close to the minimum.

Samsonov wound up going to a hearing to get this contract, one that felt a bit lower than some expected.  However, he still doesn’t have the track record of being a successful long-term starter.  One more good, healthy year with Toronto might get him there and if that’s the case, he could push toward the $5MM or more range on a multi-year agreement next summer.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Mitch Marner ($10.903MM, UFA)
D Jake McCabe ($2MM, UFA)*
F John Tavares ($11MM, UFA)
D Conor Timmins ($1.1MM, RFA)
G Joseph Woll ($767K, RFA)

*-Chicago is retaining another $2MM on McCabe’s contract.

Tavares has had a good run with Toronto, averaging nearly a point per game since signing with them in 2018.  Of course, at that price tag, they were expecting a bit more production from him while the stagnation in the salary cap has made this contract sting more as well.  He’ll be 35 when his next contract starts and it’s fair to say he’ll be heading for a fairly significant dip in pay.  The same can’t be said for Marner who will still be in his prime (28) when this deal is up.  Assuming his next two seasons are similar to the last two, he’ll be in a position to take aim at the priciest deal for a winger in NHL history; he’s about $740K below that now.

McCabe fared a bit better in Chicago compared to his time with Buffalo, resulting in the Maple Leafs parting with a first-round pick to get him near the trade deadline.  He won’t light up the scoresheet but can play in the top four and log some tough minutes.  Those players aren’t getting huge deals on the open market now but McCabe should be able to land a small raise (on his full deal, not just Toronto’s portion) and another multi-year agreement.  Timmins has shown some flashes of offensive upside in his limited NHL action but first, he’ll need to establish himself as a third-pairing regular before his value will start to go up.  If he can eventually work his way onto the second power play pairing, he’ll have a chance to double his current AAV in a couple of years.  Otherwise, his arbitration eligibility could work against him.

This is Woll’s first season as a full-fledged NHL backup which means he doesn’t have much of a track record to build on yet.  If he has success in the number two role over the next couple of years, an AAV in the $2MM range is achievable.  If he forces his way into more playing time though, then he could push his way toward Samsonov’s deal.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Calle Jarnkrok ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($1.35MM, UFA)

Jarnkrok opted for a longer-term deal than many expected last summer, a deal that worked out pretty well for Toronto in year one as he put up 20 goals for the first time in his career.  History suggests he might not get back to that point but even if he drops a few from that total, they’ll still get good value here.  Reaves also signed for longer than many expected as 36-year-old fourth liners typically don’t command three years.  However, while enforcers aren’t as plentiful as they were before, there’s a reason that Reaves always seems to be coveted by teams.  Speculatively, it’s hard to see him getting another contract in three years but stranger things have happened.

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