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Maple Leafs Closing In On William Nylander Extension

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Jan. 8: Nylander and the Maple Leafs are indeed closing in on an eight-year, $92MM total value extension, TSN’s Darren Dreger corroborates Monday morning. There is still “some work getting done” on the deal, however, and it’s unclear whether it will become official today. Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic expects the deal to contain full no-movement protection and “favorable bonus structuring.”

Jan. 6: The Maple Leafs could announce an extension for star winger William Nylander after returning from their California road trip, potentially on Monday, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said on tonight’s Hockey Night in Canada broadcast. Per Friedman, it’s likely to be an eight-year deal carrying a stratospheric AAV of $11.5MM.

That price tag is roughly $2.5MM higher than what new Toronto GM Brad Treliving offered in the early stages of negotiations last summer. Nylander’s 43-goal, 116-point pace through 36 games has eliminated the possibility of a seven-figure cap hit, however, solidifying him as the best pending free agent available in the 2024 class.

It’s also a significant increase on the $10MM-per-season deal Nylander reportedly requested before this season began. Throughout his torrid start to the campaign, which included a franchise-record 17-game point streak, the reported cap hit on an extension began to steadily climb. With that ascent now seemingly arriving at the $11.5MM mark, Treliving won’t wait any longer to put pen to paper and keep his team’s current points leader in the organization long-term.

That contract would tie Nylander for the fifth-highest cap hit in the league beginning next season with Penguins defenseman Erik Karlsson, who they have at a reduced price of $10MM through the retained salary trade that brought him there from the Sharks last summer. It also leaves Toronto with two of the top five most lucrative contracts in the league beginning in 2024 – star center Auston Matthews’ $13.25MM AAV extension will give him the highest cap hit in the league.

His performance this season seems like the real deal, and advanced metrics suggest this similar rate of production should be sustainable for a number of years as he plays out his prime. Despite his career-high goal-scoring pace, his 12% shooting percentage this season is actually less than his 12.3% career average. His two-way game has never been better, either – he’s on pace for an expected rating of +24.6, which would shatter his career-high of +18.9 set last season.

So, in a vacuum, it may be difficult to criticize the price tag given his market value as a pending UFA. However, that cap hit works out to a combined $46.6MM in spending wrapped up in Matthews, Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares next season – over 53% of the $87.5MM salary cap in 2024-25 spent on four forwards. That doesn’t include Morgan Rielly and his $7.5MM cap hit, which works out to nearly 62% of the salary cap spent on five players. With the current LTIR relief of John Klingberg, Matt Murray and Jake Muzzin all coming off the books next summer, it’ll be an extremely tight one-year squeeze until Marner’s and Tavares’ deals expire in 2025.

Assuming both Marner and Tavares stay with Toronto, the former likely won’t command a significant raise on his current $10.9MM cap hit. However, Tavares’ $11MM cap hit will likely see a multi-million dollar reduction, freeing up a notable amount of money for Treliving as the salary cap jumps to an expected value of $92MM in 2025-26.

Nylander will be 28 years old when the deal begins, and if it’s signed as reported, he’ll be 35 years old in the last season of the deal in 2031-32. Avoiding a long-term commitment to Nylander into his late 30s should help Toronto avoid some serious devaluation of the contract in the final few seasons, but even with a rising salary cap, it’s fair to expect the contract to age poorly in its seventh and eighth seasons as is the case with most long-term deals signed near the beginning of a player’s UFA eligibility.

Nonetheless, it expects to be another landmark signing for a team that’s had quite a few of them in the last decade. The ultimate question – whether or not this core can lead them to a Stanley Cup – of course remains to be seen. With Nylander posting a point per game over his last three playoff runs, however, there’s little doubt about his individual ability to perform in mid-April and beyond.

Maple Leafs Prospect Braeden Kressler Traded In OHL

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  • 21-year-old Maple Leafs center prospect Braeden Kressler is on the move in the OHL, heading from the Flint Firebirds to the Ottawa 67’s to close out his overage season. Kressler was not picked up in the 2021 NHL Draft after the OHL suspended operations that season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but he earned a training camp invite with Toronto later that summer which resulted in an entry-level contract. Kressler had a disappointing post-draft season marred by injury with just 16 points in 28 games during the 2021-22 campaign, but he’s since rebounded to put up over a point per game in Flint since the beginning of last season while serving as an alternate captain. Thus far in 2023-24, Kressler has 15 goals and 37 points in 33 games, good enough to tie for the Firebirds’ lead in scoring.

Afternoon Notes: Nylander, Palat, Heiskanen

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Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported some updates yesterday on the William Nylander contract negotiations. Friedman believes that there is a deal to be made between Nylander and the Toronto Maple Leafs but that the negotiations are delicate, and both sides want to be careful moving forward. The Maple Leafs want some certainty from Nylander so they can move on and understand what they need to address going forward, as well as how much cap space they can allocate to other areas of need. For Nylander, he’s stated publicly in the past that he wants to stay in Toronto, and it doesn’t appear anything has changed.

Nylander bet on himself in the offseason as the Maple Leafs were looking to get this contract extension done for under $10MM annually. But, with Nylander on pace for career highs in both goals and assists his extension will likely be over $11MM annually. Friedman believes that the Maple Leafs are okay with this being a pricey extension, but they also understand that there are other variables Nylander has to consider other than money and term.

In other afternoon notes:

  • New Jersey Devils reporter Amanda Stein tweeted that Devils head coach Lindy Ruff told reporters this morning that Ondrej Palat will likely miss the next few games. Palat suffered a lower-body injury in practice on Tuesday and did not play Wednesday night. The 32-year-old has struggled to live up to expectations after signing a five-year $30MM deal with the Devils in July of 2022. In 84 games spread out over one and a half seasons, Palat has just 13 goals and 24 assists.
  • Lia Assimakopoulos of The Dallas News is reporting that Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen was not on the ice for Stars practice today after suffering a lower-body injury in last night’s game against the Colorado Avalanche. Heiskanen crashed into his goalie early in the third period and left the game. There is no word yet on the severity of the injury, although TSN’s Pierre LeBrun is reporting that there is optimism that the injury is not long-term.

Matt Murray Progressing On Schedule From Hip Surgery

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  • When Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving spoke with the media yesterday, he told reporters including Postmedia’s Terry Koshan that goaltender Matt Murray is on track in his recovery from bilateral hip surgery. Treliving cautioned that he still has a long way to go but as of now, there haven’t been any setbacks.  The pending unrestricted free agent is currently on LTIR and isn’t expected to play during the regular season.

Samsonov Will Not Skate This Week With Marlies

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Having just cleared waivers yesterday, questions immediately sprouted concerning Ilya Samsonov, and how the Toronto Maple Leafs plan to deal with the struggling goaltender. Now rostered with the organization’s AHL affiliate, the Toronto Marlies, Jonas Siegel of The Athletic shed a bit more light on the issue this afternoon.

Speaking with the General Manager of the Maple Leafs, Brad Treliving, it does not appear that Samsonov will play nor practice with the Marlies this week, as Treliving is quoted as saying, “It’s a physical and a mental reset where can he get away from preparing for the next game and all the pressures that come with it”.

[SOURCE LINK]

Leafs Were Offering Up Late-Round Pick For Goalie Help

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With Ilya Samsonov’s struggles, the Maple Leafs have been among the teams that have been sniffing around the goalie market.  However, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman relayed in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that Toronto’s foray into the market was believed to be them offering up a late-round pick – possibly a sixth-rounder – but teams were seeking a better return and preferred a prospect for even the lower-end options.  Clearly, there wasn’t anything out there to GM Brad Treliving’s liking which resulted in today’s recall of prospect Dennis Hildeby, a move that is likely only a short-term option given his inexperience.

Ilya Samsonov Clears Waivers

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01/01/24: As expected, Samsonov has cleared waivers, according to The Athletic’s Chris Johnston. As a result, he is now eligible for assignment to AHL Toronto.

 12/31/23: The Toronto Maple Leafs have placed goaltender Ilya Samsonov on waivers. Samsonov’s last appearance came on December 29nd, when he allowed the Columbus Blue Jackets six goals on only 21 shots.

Samsonov’s placement on waivers was coupled with Toronto’s AHL club recalling ECHL goaltender Luke Cavallin, something that Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman thinks may be a sign that Dennis Hildeby could receive a call-up to the NHL squad should Samsonov clear waivers. Hildeby has been gaining traction in the eyes of Toronto fans, setting a 7-5-3 record and .919 save percentage in the 15 AHL games he’s appeared in this season. The Swedish goaltender is in his first full season of North American hockey, after joining the AHL’s Toronto Marlies following the end of Farjestads’ 2022-23 season in the SHL. The 22-year-old goalie was prolific in Sweden’s top league last season, setting a .918 save percentage in 21 games with the top club. The Leafs drafted Hildeby in the fourth round of the 2022 NHL Draft. Like all players after pick 54 in that draft class, Hildeby has yet to make his NHL debut – something that could change soon with this recent roster moves.

Samsonov is placed on waivers after a series of disappointing games. The 26-year-old netminder currently carries a .862 save percentage through 15 games, second-worst in the league among goalies with 15-or-more games. The only goaltender with a worse save percentage is Antti Raanta, who was similarly waived earlier in the season. Samsonov is in his second season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, going to arbitration to earn a one-year, $3.6MM contract with the team for this season.

Maple Leafs Recall Dennis Hildeby

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The Maple Leafs recalled rookie netminder Dennis Hildeby from the AHL’s Toronto Marlies on Monday morning, per a team release. Hildeby joined the Maple Leafs at practice this morning and is expected to dress for his first NHL game Tuesday in Los Angeles.

Hildeby replaces Ilya Samsonov on the active roster, who will be assigned to the minors after 1 p.m. CT today, assuming he clears waivers. The latter’s struggles this season are well-documented, posting a .862 SV% that’s second-worst in the league among qualified netminders.

It’s been a dramatic fall from grace for Samsonov, who conceded at least four goals in his past four starts after blanking the Predators with an 18-save shutout on December 9. He’s just a few months removed from guiding the Maple Leafs to their first playoff series win since 2004 and stopping 17.4 goals above average in 42 appearances in 2022-23.

Multiple reports indicate Samsonov will not appear in a game with AHL Toronto, at least not immediately after his demotion this week. The team’s hope is to give him a dedicated space to work with the team’s development staff and rehabilitate his game.

New de facto starter Joseph Woll is sidelined longer-term with a high ankle sprain. That means veteran Martin Jones, initially signed to be the team’s third option in the net behind Samsonov and Woll, will see the lion’s share of starts before Woll can return to action, likely sometime later this month or next.

Supplementing Jones will be Hildeby, who has put up spectacular numbers in his first full season in the North American pro circuit. He’s had a quick rise up the prospect ranks since being passed over in three straight drafts (2019, 2020 and 2021), finally heading to the Maple Leafs in the fourth round, 122nd overall, in 2022.

Since then, the 22-year-old’s play has been elite. The Maple Leafs signed Hildeby to an entry-level contract only a few weeks after acquiring his rights in the draft, but they returned him to his Swedish Hockey League club, Färjestad BK, on loan for the 2022-23 season. There, he split the crease with current Lightning netminder Matt Tomkins, posting a strong 2.26 GAA and .918 SV% with three shutouts in 21 regular-season games.

After the SHL campaign concluded, Hildeby made three appearances (two regular-season, one playoff) for the Marlies, but only one start. This season, however, with Woll’s injury forcing a domino effect, Hildeby took over the starting role for them and hasn’t looked back. Through 15 games, the 6-foot-7 Swede has a .919 SV%, 2.20 GAA, two shutouts, and a 7-5-3 record. He’s allowed four-plus goals in a game only twice and has not been pulled from a game.

The Leafs aren’t looking to Hildeby to “save their season.” After all, the team is still in solid playoff positioning with a third-place standing in the Atlantic Division. Although they’re tied in points with the Lightning with 41, they have four games in hand on their playoff rivals, leading to a significant gap in their points percentages.

However, they are hoping he can give the team some more chances to win – something Samsonov hasn’t done on too many occasions as of late. If Hildeby can post a SV% even just slightly below league average in his first NHL stint, it will be a major upgrade on Samsonov’s performance this year and could help fault Toronto into a top-two finish in the Atlantic. With a back-to-back upcoming against the Kings tomorrow and the Ducks Wednesday, he will likely make his first NHL start within the next 72 hours.

Hildeby’s contract carries a $843.3K cap hit, less than the maximum $1.15MM in cap savings afforded by burying Samsonov’s contract in the minors. Thus, the Leafs will add roughly $275K in cap space with this transaction, giving them some breathing room under their nearly maxed-out LTIR salary pool.

David Kampf Made A Healthy Scratch

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  • Jonas Siegel of The Athletic reports that David Kampf will be a healthy scratch tonight for the Toronto Maple Leafs. After spending two years being a formidable bottom-six forward for Toronto, the organization rewarded Kampf, signing the forward to a four-year, $9.6MM contract extension over the summer, hoping to gain some long-term stability in the bottom of their forward core. Unfortunately, Kampf has not lived up to expectations this season, only amassing seven points in 33 games, and seeing his ice time drop by more than two minutes on average.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Toronto Has A Tough Call To Make In Goal

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Following another tough outing that saw him allow six goals to Columbus in an overtime loss, Ilya Samsonov’s short-term future appears to be in question.  Jonas Siegel of The Athletic believes (subscription link) that the Maple Leafs can no longer afford to put the netminder in their lineup with how much he has struggled; his save percentage on the season is down to just .862 even though he only has two regulation losses in his 15 starts.

Toronto’s challenge, of course, is that with Joseph Woll likely out for another month and Martin Jones being more of a depth veteran than a viable starter, they don’t really have anyone else to turn to other than prospect Dennis Hildeby or another youngster in the minors.  With Hildeby being in his first full AHL campaign though, calling him up this early wouldn’t be ideal.  However, Siegel highlights that with how the Maple Leafs’ schedule goes in the next little bit, they wouldn’t have to call on Hildeby much, lessening the risk of exposing him too early to the top level.  Promoting him would then allow Samsonov to either accept a conditioning stint with the Marlies or be assigned there pending waiver clearance to try to get back on track.

Siegel also wonders if Jaroslav Halak could make sense in the short term to avoid bringing Hildeby up although it’s worth noting that the Maple Leafs already have seven goalies on an NHL contract.  To use Halak, they’d have to make it eight which isn’t an ideal situation to be in.  Samsonov had a good first season in Toronto last year, earning a $3.55MM deal for his troubles but his platform year to unrestricted free agency has been nothing short of a disaster so far.

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