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Thankful Series 2022-23

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Arizona Coyotes

at CDT | by 13 Comments

As Thanksgiving and the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2022-23. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Arizona Coyotes.

Who are the Coyotes thankful for?

Clayton Keller.

There was a time in which Clayton Keller looked more like a quality top-six player than a truly elite talent. Like someone on the bubble of first-line talent level, but without the production to back up that assessment. Those days are over. Despite suffering a gruesome lower-body injury that prematurely ended his season last year, Clayton Keller has picked up right where he left off and is cementing himself as a true face-of-the-franchise offensive talent.

Last season was a breakout of sorts for Keller. While he scored 65 points in 2017-18 as a rookie, he struggled to reach those heights in subsequent years, finishing in the 40-point range for the next two seasons and then scoring at a 51-point pace in the shortened 2020-21 season. In 2021-22, Keller reached another dimension of production, scoring 63 points, leading the Coyotes in point production despite playing in just 67 games.

This year, Keller has 17 points in 15 games and looks every bit like the elite offensive play driver he was last year. Still just 24 years old, Keller has put himself in a position to be the centerpiece of the Coyotes’ forward corps for many years to come.

Back in 2019, Keller signed an eight-year, $7.15MM AAV extension. While it was a deal that some at the time viewed as an overpayment, it now looks to be an extremely shrewd investment, seeing as the going rate for point-per-game offensive play drivers is $8MM AAV or higher.

For a franchise that has dealt with so much uncertainty over the past few years, having Keller productive and locked into a team-friendly long-term extension is the sort of thing any Arizona fan should be extremely thankful for.

What are the Coyotes thankful for?

The 2023 Draft.

As was mentioned in the first edition of our Big Hype Prospects series, the 2023 draft class at the moment looks absolutely loaded with quality talent. That sentiment is especially true at the top of the draft, since there are four players whose current prospect profiles compare quite favorably to the first-overall picks from the 2021 and 2022 drafts.

Connor Bedard needs no introduction for most hockey fans, while University of Michigan forward Adam Fantilli is authoring the most productive freshman NCAA season since Jack Eichel tore Hockey East apart as a Boston University Terrier. Russian forward Matvei Michkov shattered junior scoring records in his home country and is currently scoring at an above-point-per-game rate in the VHL. And then there’s Swedish center Leo Carlsson who has burst onto the scene with 12 points in 17 games for Orebro in the SHL.

The Coyotes haven’t been among the NHL’s worst teams yet this season, but they are widely expected to find their way to the bottom of the NHL’s standings by the time the season runs its course.

If that ends up being the case, and the Coyotes end up finishing last in the NHL standings, they will not only have the highest odds of landing the draft’s top selection, (thereby securing themselves their choice from this top tier of prospects) they’ll also have guaranteed themselves a top-three selection, meaning they will, at worst, potentially have their choice of Michkov or Carlsson.

Since the Coyotes are a franchise that is looking to build for the long term and add as many talented prospects as possible, Coyotes fans should be extremely thankful that the crop of 2023 draft-eligible prospects looks to be so talented at this early stage.

What would the Coyotes be even more thankful for?

A clearer long-term home.

The Coyotes’ arena situation has gotten significant media attention in recent years, and that attention hasn’t always been positive. At the moment, the Coyotes are currently sharing Mullett Arena with the Arizona State University Sun Devils hockey program.

While some might point out that Mullett Arena is a brand-new, state-of-the-art facility that provides a more intimate experience than any other NHL arena, it’s important to remember that the experience is only “intimate” because the arena’s capacity hovers around the 5,000 mark.

Mullett Arena is definitely a unique venue that provides some interesting opportunities for the team to pursue, but it’s unfit to be the Coyotes’ long-term home. The team is seeking a long-term arena solution in Tempe, although the likelihood of the team’s proposal becoming reality is unclear. The issue could potentially be decided via a referendum, which is hardly the sort of slam-dunk green light the franchise is definitely hoping for.

While the future on the ice is looking bright for the Coyotes, Arizona fans would have a lot more to be thankful for if the team’s off-ice future was more settled and concrete.

What should be on the Coyotes’ holiday wish list?

A busy trade market.

One of the single largest advantages Arizona has over other teams is their considerable war chest of cap space. While most NHL teams are counting their pennies in order to remain cap compliant, the Coyotes, per CapFriendly’s calculations, are on pace to have over $74MM in cap space accumulated by the trade deadline.

As a result, the Coyotes will have the bandwidth under the salary cap to act as a “broker” for any potential trades between cap-strapped teams. What this means is that the Coyotes will be able to act as a financial facilitator for other teams’ trades, in exchange for draft pick compensation. They have the ability to retain salary on two players in advance of this year’s trade deadline and may be able to charge higher prices for that retention than in prior years thanks to the leaguewide lack of cap space.

The Coyotes already have a stockpile of draft picks amassed for the 2024 draft, but their 2023 is looking comparatively thin. With the ability to add draft picks from other teams in exchange for their cap space, the Coyotes should definitely be hoping that the trade market has a lot of activity so that the demand for their cap space is as high as possible.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Anaheim Ducks

at CDT | by 2 Comments

As Thanksgiving and the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2022-23. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Anaheim Ducks.

Who are the Ducks thankful for?

Pat Verbeek.

It hasn’t been a good year for Anaheim. The team is off to a 4-10-1 start, has allowed 67 goals in 15 games, and recently lost young defenseman Jamie Drysdale for up to six months. But there are better times ahead.

When Pat Verbeek took over as general manager in early February, he explained that he wasn’t sure what direction to take the team in. There were several pending unrestricted free agents on the roster – core players that were well-liked by the organization – and he could have re-signed them to keep the group relatively intact. But Verbeek took another route and began to sell off those expiring assets in an attempt to reshape the roster. Josh Manson, Nicolas Deslauriers, Hampus Lindholm, and Rickard Rakell were all sold off at the deadline.

It’s easy to look at the success of someone like Lindholm in Boston and think that was a mistake, but don’t forget just how much the team landed in those few days of March. The Ducks came out of the deadline with an extra first-round pick, four second-round picks, a third-round pick, and several interesting prospects. This year could be much of the same.

While it isn’t Lindholm on offer, the Ducks do have John Klingberg to flip after signing him to a one-year deal in the summer. Kevin Shattenkirk, Dmitry Kulikov, and Nathan Beaulieu are other potential defensemen that could be on the move. Anthony Stolarz is a potential backup option that could be flipped to a contender, while veteran forwards like Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg are only signed through 2023-24 and could also be moved in the right circumstances.

The Ducks may not be competitive in the standings but they will certainly be involved come trade season.

What are the Ducks thankful for?

Draft lottery changes.

It’s a good time to be bad. When the NHL introduced new draft lottery rules in 2021, one of the biggest changes was the ability to only move up ten spots. That eliminated any chance of a team just barely missing the playoffs and still somehow snagging the first-overall pick. They also reduced the number of lottery selections from three to two, meaning even if there is a swap, finishing last guarantees you at least the third selection. This is a huge boost for rebuilding clubs like Anaheim, who find themselves near the very bottom of the standings.

In a draft that includes three (and maybe four or five) franchise-altering talents, this assurance of selection is important. The Ducks have a good shot at adding another premier player to a group that already has names like Trevor Zegras and Mason McTavish. Imagine Conor Bedard on a powerplay with those two, or Adam Fantilli anchoring the middle of another line. You can bet that Verbeek is already daydreaming about what might be possible.

What would the Ducks be even more thankful for?

A resurgent John Gibson.

In the first five seasons of John Gibson’s career, he was one of the most dominant goaltenders in the league. A .921 save percentage, 119 wins, and night after night of spectacular saves. But for nearly three and a half years now, he’s been something else entirely. The 29-year-old netminder has a .902 save percentage since the start of 2019 and has lost 103 of his 153 starts. Every metric you look at rates him as a below-average goaltender, even when adjusting for the poor play in front of him.

This season, he leads the league in goals against (45 in 11 starts) and has a .888 save percentage. He’s been peppered, facing the most shots of any goalie, but he’s also been extremely unreliable.

One of the things that many executives preach about a rebuild is that it is difficult to develop players around bad goaltending. When youthful mistakes turn into goals, it can hinder some of the creativity that makes a young player so dynamic. As the Ducks transition over the next few years, and try to build up the program again, Gibson will need to show he can play to his former level. Otherwise, it’s hard to imagine him being on the next competitive Ducks team.

What should be on the Ducks’ holiday wish list?

A call from a needy contender.

When the Ducks were able to convince Klingberg to sign with them this offseason, there was no hiding the plan. The team built it right into his trade protection. Klingberg has a full no-trade clause through the end of 2022, and then on January 1, it turns into a 10-team no-trade. He’s going to be flipped at the deadline, it just depends on which team needs a puck-moving right-handed defenseman the most.

If there are many, that bidding war could be quite beneficial to a team that has invested nothing but salary into the player. Klingberg is earning $7MM this season on the one-year deal and is averaging more than 23 minutes a night. By retaining half of his remaining contract, the Ducks should be able to get themselves another nice piece to slide into the puzzle.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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