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Poll: Which Teams Will Buck The Thanksgiving Playoff Trend In 2019-20?

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Just how important is playoff position in just the second month of the regular season? Very, if you look at recent results. Over the past six years, more than 70% of teams in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving have held on to their spot. While last year was slightly below the mark – 11 of 16 teams (69%) in a playoff position on November 22 qualified – the standings at the time were even more predictive than usual. The Lightning, Predators, Flames, Maple Leafs, Jets, and Sharks all finished in the same divisional seed that they occupied at Thanksgiving.

So who were the outliers in 2018-19? Obviously, the St. Louis Blues’ return from the basement of the league standings to win the Stanley Cup is a story that will stand the test of time. However, four other clubs also turned their seasons around: the Islanders, Penguins, Hurricanes, and Golden Knights. And the teams whose seasons took a turn for the worse: the Sabres, Wild, Rangers, Canadiens, and Ducks. Ironically, the Canadiens were narrowly inside the playoff window on Thanksgiving and ended up just barely outside in the spring. Meanwhile, the Ducks, Oilers, and Coyotes were all tied for the lowest playoff-qualifying record on Thanksgiving, with the Ducks getting the tiebreaker at the time, and all three failed to qualify for the postseason.

This season has gotten off to an unpredictable start, which could potentially threaten to derail the Thanksgiving trend. Several teams considered Cup contenders are currently outside the playoff picture, while multiple surprises currently occupy a spot. With Thanksgiving arriving tomorrow, this is the current status of the NHL standings (reminder – points percentage is the ideal way of viewing NHL standings):

Eastern Conference

M1 New York Islanders (.773)
A1 Boston Bruins (.771)

M2 Washington Capitals (.740)
M3 Carolina Hurricanes (.646)

A2 Tampa Bay Lightning (.619)
A3 Florida Panthers (.604)

W1 Pittsburgh Penguins (.625)
W2 Philadelphia Flyers (.604)

Outside the Playoff Picture: Montreal Canadiens (.563), New York Rangers (.545), Columbus Blue Jackets (.522), Buffalo Sabres (.521), Toronto Maple Leafs (.520), Ottawa Senators (.479), New Jersey Devils (.435), Detroit Red Wings (.327)

Western Conference

C1 St. Louis Blues (.680)
P1 Edmonton Oilers (.673)

C2 Dallas Stars (.615)
C3 Colorado Avalanche (.609)

P2 Arizona Coyotes (.620)
P3 Vancouver Canucks (.560)

W1 Winnipeg Jets (.604)
W2 Nashville Predators (.543)

Outside the Playoff Picture: San Jose Sharks (.540), Chicago Blackhawks (.521), Anaheim Ducks (.500), Vegas Golden Knights (.500), Calgary Flames (.481), Minnesota Wild (.480), Los Angeles Kings (.417)

2018-19 playoff teams jump off the page as potential candidates to disrupt the status quo. Particularly in the Pacific Division, it is hard to image none of the Golden Knights – who beat the Thanksgiving odds last year – the Sharks or the Flames will make the playoffs, especially as they look up at the Oilers, Coyotes, and Canucks.  There could also be hope in West for the Ducks and Blackhawks, who sit at .500 currently. Over in the East, the Maple Leafs stick out like a sore thumb among non-playoff teams and could be line for improvement following their coaching change. But will it be enough given their difficult start? The Canadiens will also hope for a reverse of fortunes from last year, going from first team out in the conference at Thanksgiving to in the postseason come April. The Sabres have started hot and collapsed two years in a row, but there is still time for them to turn things back around. All three Atlantic clubs see a Panthers team with plenty of problems ahead of them in the standings right now. Meanwhile, the Rangers and Blue Jackets will look to make an unlikely run to the postseason as they chase down the Flyers.

What do you think? Which of these teams will find their way into the playoff picture and which will fall victim to the Thanksgiving postseason trend? Select as many teams below as you like, but remember that for every addition, there has to be a subtraction of a current playoff team.

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Erik Cernak Suspended Two Games

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The Department of Player Safety has had a busy few days. Their latest discipline has been handed out to Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak, who has been suspended for two games. Cernak elbowed Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin in the head, resulting in a concussion for the young player. As the accompanying video explains:

It is important to note that while we acknowledge the Lightning argument that they believe Dahlin’s glove drove Cernak’s elbow upward and caused the head contact on this play, we disagree.

While Dahlin’s glove does make glancing contact with Cernak’s forearm, it is clear to us that Cernak’s elbow is already on a trajectory where head contact is inevitable. 

The Lightning will be without Cernak for the next couple of games, but the concern now is how long Dahlin will be out after being placed in the concussion protocol. The young phenom has had his share of struggles this season but the Sabres were already looking to move one of their other defensemen to upgrade the forward ranks.

Sabres Acquire Matt Spencer From Lightning

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The Sabres and Lightning have swapped minor league defensemen as Buffalo has acquired Matt Spencer in exchange for Devante Stephens.  Both teams have announced the deal.

Spencer, a second-round pick in 2015, has been limited to just five games this season due to injury and has split that time between AHL Syracuse and ECHL Orlando.  He has spent the bulk of his pro career at the ECHL level and had 15 points in 36 ECHL contests a year ago.  The 22-year-old is in the final year of his entry-level deal and will need to show some improvement if he wants to be qualified in June.  He has been assigned to Cincinnati of the ECHL.

As for Stephens, the 2015 fifth rounder has been limited to a total of three ECHL games this season but showed a bit of offensive upside a year ago with the Cyclones when he posted 25 points in 69 contests.  He’s also in the final year of his entry-level deal and doesn’t appear to be a candidate to receive a qualifying offer as well.

Eastern Notes: Cooper, Sabourin, Atkinson

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With the recent firing of Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock, many eyes have turned to the Tampa Bay Lightning who are also struggling in the Atlantic Division. The Lightning are currently in seventh place, even behind the Ottawa Senators. They are only ahead of the Detroit Red Wings.

Regardless, in his most recent mailbag, The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) suggests that while Toronto general manager Kyle Dubas didn’t hire Babcock in Toronto, that isn’t the case in Tampa Bay, where Julien BriseBois did hire Cooper to be his AHL coach years ago and now the team’s NHL coach. The two have a long-standing relationship and won an AHL championship together, much like the relationship between Dubas and newly promoted head coach Sheldon Keefe.

The scribe writes that because of the long-standing relationship between BriseBois and Cooper, a poor start to the season won’t change things.

  • The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that Ottawa Senators forward Scott Sabourin returned to the ice Saturday for an informal skills development session, but there is still no timetable for his return. Sabourin suffered a concussion, broken nose and an ugly cut near his eye when he was knocked out in a significant collision with David Backes on Nov. 2. Garrioch writes that Sabourin isn’t expected to return to the lineup anytime soon, but he has been skating on his own recently.
  • The Athletic’s Aaron Portzine (subscription required) gives first quarter grades out for the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are in sixth place in the Metropolitan Division with a 9-8-4 record. While the scribe has lots of praise for some of the young players and goaltenders, the veterans weren’t as lucky. He is quick to criticize the play of Cam Atkinson, who has struggled offensively with just four goals and 13 points this season. Atkinson, however, is known to be a streaky scorer, so the veteran could find a way to bounce back and return as one of the team’s top scorers. However, Atkinson would likely have given himself a worse grade as he admitted that he is “embarrassed” by his recent play.

Minor Transactions: 11/19/19

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After a quiet two days the NHL is back in full force tonight with 26 teams in action. That includes Pat Maroon and Kevin Shattenkirk returning to St. Louis to take on their former team, this time suiting up for the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning are floundering in sixth place in the Atlantic Division but have played the fewest games of any team in the league and still have plenty of time to turn things around. While teams prepare for the busy night, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves.

  • Those Lightning are dealing with a few bumps and bruises, so Cory Conacher has been recalled from the minor leagues to serve as some extra forward depth for this evening. The 29-year old Conacher has one again found success in the minor leagues, scoring 12 points in 16 games this season for the Syracuse Crunch.
  • Adam Werner has been sent back to the Colorado Eagles as the Avalanche goaltenders start to get healthy, but the team has also made another transaction. A.J. Greer has been recalled according to Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic, giving the young forward another chance at the NHL. Greer was a second-round pick in 2015 but has played just 37 games so far for the Avalanche, scoring six points.
  • The Calgary Flames will try to insert even more physicality into the lineup after recalling Zac Rinaldo from the minor leagues. The team has sent the struggling Tobias Rieder to the AHL in his place. Rinaldo, has played in 351 NHL games, recording 719 penalty minutes.

Minor Transactions: 11/11/19

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A new week begins by celebrating Veterans or Remembrance Day (depending on your place of origin), a cause linked closely to the hockey world for some time. There are two games on tap around the NHL, including the teams from the capitals of both Canada and the United States. Washington will try to keep their recent hot streak rolling against the Arizona Coyotes, while Ottawa travels to Carolina in search of their third consecutive win. As those and the rest of the league’s teams prepare for action, we’ll be right here keeping track of all the minor moves.

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning have sent Alexander Volkov back to the minor leagues after the young forward played in four games with the team. Volkov, 22, was given an opportunity with some of Tampa Bay’s best forwards, but failed to record his first NHL point. There is plenty of time for that though as he looks to be quite high in the prospect depth chart for the Lightning.
  • After giving him a chance to travel with the Buffalo Sabres to Sweden for the Global Series games, Lawrence Pilut has been returned to the minor leagues. The Swedish defenseman didn’t actually play in the overseas games, but still got to experience the trip as a member of an NHL club. Pilut hasn’t played for the Sabres yet this season, but does have six points in eight minor league appearances.
  • Though there has been no update yet on Torey Krug’s status after he left last night’s game, the Boston Bruins have recalled Urho Vaakanainen from the minor leagues under emergency conditions. That would suggest that Krug is out for at least one game, but we’ll have to wait and see later today.
  • The Detroit Red Wings are on a heater since acquiring Robby Fabbri, and now bring back another exciting young forward. Givani Smith has been recalled by the team for the second time this season. Smith has played in three games for the Red Wings so far but is still looking for his first NHL point.
  • The Vegas Golden Knights don’t play until Wednesday and have completed their usual off-day assignment of Nicolas Roy and Nicolas Hague, but the pair have a third member on the bus to the AHL. Cody Glass has also been sent to the Chicago Wolves today, a curious move given his success so far this season. Glass has seen his ice time reduced significantly over the last two games, playing fewer than 12 minutes in each.
  • Gavin Bayreuther didn’t leave Winnipeg with the Dallas Stars and instead was reassigned to the Texas Stars who play the Manitoba Moose this afternoon. The 25-year old defenseman hasn’t played in a game for Dallas yet this season.
  • Brendan Guhle has been recalled by the Anaheim Ducks, while the team reassigned Simon Benoit to the AHL. Guhle was sent down at the end of October and has played well with the San Diego Gulls, registering four points in four games.

Poll: Should Kucherov Have Been Disciplined For Hit On Sobotka?

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With the eyes of the hockey world on Stockholm this week for the NHL Global Series, the first game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Buffalo Sabres featured a questionable no-call, followed by an equally suspicious lack of response by the league. Sabres forward Vladimir Sobotka was forced from the game early after receiving a low-bridge hit from Lightning star Nikita Kucherov. There was no penalty called on the play and The Athletic’s Joe Smith reported that no supplemental discipline will come from the NHL Department of Player Safety. Especially after responding quickly to the Nick Foligno hit on Friday and given the visibility of the Global Series game, should the league have done more about this incident?

The hit in question is questionable indeed (video). Sobotka throws the puck on goal from out near the blue line, while continuing to coast to his left with his focus staying on the puck, now behind the Tampa net. A defenseless and unexpecting Sobotka runs into Kucherov, who has bent down and lowered his body to deliver a hip check that decks Sobotka, sending him end-over-end. This type of low bridge hit has been punished in the past by the league, but there was no call on the ice – likely as attention was on the puck – and the league did not feel it warranted further review. Yet, it seemingly meets many of the criteria that would raise the hit to the level of supplemental discipline. It was late, away from the puck, with intent, and did in fact cause injury. Sobotka was seen after the game with a cast and is expected to miss time for Buffalo.

With that said, this style of low check used to be a non-issue in the NHL. The fact that it was late and away from the play should have resulted in an interference or roughing penalty on the ice, but the hit itself would not have been finable or suspendable years ago. While the league should have at least admitted the error by the referees, there is some understanding as well as to why there was no further review. The issue now is whether the league will be consistent in not issuing discipline for low bridge hits, which the likes of Brad Marchand and Nazem Kadri have been nailed for in the past. Kucherov’s status as a superstar and the fact that the league wanted him available for game two of their international event should not have been a factor in the decision, but very well could have been.

What do you think? Should Kucherov have been disciplined for the low-bridge hit that injured Sobotka? Vote below and share your thoughts in the comments.

Hurricanes, Sabres Shopping Defensemen

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The Carolina Hurricanes were seeking a top-nine forward when they traded away long-time defenseman Justin Faulk this summer. However, the best return they could find was a prospect forward, Dominik Bokk, and another established defenseman in Joel Edmundson from the St. Louis Blues. Now, the Hurricanes are more or less back in the same situation, trying to deal from their blue line depth for help up front. Even after moving Faulk and Calvin de Haan in the off-season, the additions of Edmundson, Jake Gardiner, and Gustav Forsling has created yet another logjam on defense. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that Carolina is calling around to other teams and shopping veteran Trevor van Riemsdyk, as well as 23-year-old Haydn Fleury, who is no longer waiver-exempt, in hopes of landing a scoring forward in return.

However, they aren’t alone. LeBrun’s colleague Darren Dreger reports that the Buffalo Sabres are also making calls to dangle defenders in anticipation of their team getting healthy. Dreger states that Zach Bogosian and Marco Scandella will make their returns “right around the corner”, but first Buffalo will need to clear space. The red-hot Sabres likely want to avoid a major shake-up, such as moving the now-content Rasmus Ristolainen, but also likely aren’t keen to move recent additions like Brandon Montour and Colin Miller. The team can demote Lawrence Pilut and even Henri Jokiharju, but will still need to make room on the blue line. Dreger states that Buffalo is hoping to land both a top-six and bottom-six forward, so trading away a John Gilmour won’t get the job done. Bogosian, Scandella, and Jake McCabe seem like the most likely to be dealt at this point.

So who could take advantage of a market flush with capable defenders? Top contenders like the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, and San Jose Sharks are all struggling defensively this season and have the depth of forwards to swing a deal. The Minnesota Wild are known to be open to moving several forward and could pursue a defenseman that they see as a long-term fit. The same could be said for other struggling teams, especially those with intriguing impending free agents, such as the Los Angeles Kings (Tyler Toffoli) and New York Rangers (Chris Kreider). The Hurricanes’ and Sabres’ competition to make a deal may even lower the acquisition costs for any interested teams. The trade market appears to be heating up early this season and the odds of a deal – or several – before the holiday trade freeze are high.

Eastern Notes: Rangers’ Goalies, Barzal, Hedman

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The New York Rangers will soon find themselves with a problem, albeit a good problem. The team has three NHL-level goaltenders now with the emergence of Alexandar Georgiev, who has established himself as a solid NHL goaltender at the very least. Throw in longtime Rangers’ Henrik Lundqvist, who still has one year remaining on his contract, and top prospect Igor Shesterkin, who is looking sharp in the AHL, and the team will have a problem sooner or later, according to The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello.

The scribe notes that the simple solution of trading the aging Lundqvist to a playoff contender is extremely unlikely as Lundqvist has made it clear he doesn’t want to be traded and his $8.5MM AAV would be difficult to move even if he wanted to go to a contender.

The 23-year-old Georgiev has been exceptional in six starts this season for the Rangers, which includes a current string of three straight starts. He has a 3-2-1 record with a 2.27 GAA and a .933 save percentage, while Lundqvist hasn’t been nearly as impressive with a 2-3 record in six appearances, but a 3.58 GAA and a .906 save percentage. Throw in the impressive start by Shesterkin, who the team finally brought over from the KHL this summer, as the 23-year-old is 5-2 in seven appearances with the Hartford Wolf Pack, with a 1.83 GAA and a .932 save percentage and the team could be forced to make some important decisions at some point.

You can’t have three NHL goaltenders, however, so a trade of one of the young kids could be a potential option down the road.

  • Despite considering himself to be a pass-first player, New York Islanders center Mathew Barzal has been encouraged to score more goals. Head coach Barry Trotz has made it clear to the 22-year-old that he must focus more on scoring this year. The center did just that, making changes to his stick this summer to give him a better scoring opportunity, according to Newsday’s Andrew Gross. “I just made it a little whippier and changed my curve a little bit, put a little more hook on it,” Barzal said. “Not too drastic, just a little nick on it. It gives me a little toe to suck it in and shoot it a little better.”
  • NHL.com’s Shawn P. Roarke writes that Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman is hopeful that he will play Friday in the first game of the 2019 Global Series against Buffalo in Stockholm, Sweden. Hedman suffered a lower-body injury last Tuesday and was placed on injured reserve. A celebrity in Sweden, Hedman would obviously like to play. However, he’ll have to prove that he’s healthy, according to head coach Jon Cooper. “I think we are all hopeful, but he is going to have to get on the ice pretty soon if we are going to see him,” Cooper said Sunday.

Lightning Place Luke Witkowski On Waivers

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Sunday: Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Witkowski has cleared waivers and the team announced that he has been assigned to the Syracuse Crunch in the AHL.

Saturday: It’s not a move that will suggest a major shakeup is on the way but the scuffling Lightning have decided to change up their roster slightly as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that they have placed winger/defenseman Luke Witkowski on waivers.

Witkowski is in his first season back with Tampa Bay after spending the past two seasons in Detroit.  While he has played on the blue line in a pinch over the last couple of years, he has been primarily deployed as a physical fourth line winger and has 33 hits in just 12 games so far this season, a mark that leads the team.  However, his offensive upside is rather limited and it appears that the Lightning would prefer someone that can contribute more at that end in that spot.

The 29-year-old is in the first season of a two-year, two-way contract that pays the league minimum of $700K at the NHL level.  Considering his positional versatility and that small of a financial commitment, it’s certainly possible that he attracts some interest on the wire.  If not, his entire contract will come off the books if and when he’s sent to AHL Syracuse which would give Tampa Bay some much-needed cap flexibility as they only have a little over $1MM in current cap room at their disposal.

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