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PHR Panel: Expansion Draft Considerations

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the upcoming 2021 expansion draft.

Q: Which team should be most afraid of the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft?

Brian La Rose: 

This is a tough one to answer a year out as a lot will change between now and then. Who is added over the offseason in trades and free agency can certainly affect things. So too can teams deciding to sign players to early extensions or holding off in order to leave them exposed to protect someone else.

Personally, I’m of the opinion that teams with strong defensive depth are the ones that should be the most worried. With a 7-3-1 protection system, anyone with a fourth defender worthy of keeping either risk losing them or their fifth-best forward if they switch to the alternative eight skater protection list.

Using that mindset, Carolina comes up as a team that should be concerned about Seattle’s draft.

Their surefire protectees at this point on the back end are Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei. But does Haydn Fleury take another step forward next year and become tougher to leave exposed? Are they able to get Dougie Hamilton signed to an extension? If so, he’s another must-protect player. What about Jake Bean, a well-regarded prospect that will be eligible to be picked. It’s reasonable to think that they may want to protect four defensemen which means only four forwards could be protected. But with a strong and relatively forward corps as well, they’re setting up to lose either a strong defenseman or a top-six forward. Having depth is great but a year from now, they’re going to lose an impact player.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

When looking at the upcoming expansion draft, there are a number of teams that may have to give up some very good players to the incoming Seattle franchise. While I can easily point to teams like Toronto and Tampa Bay as franchises that have a lot of talent, the team that seems to currently have the most talent at risk is the St. Louis Blues. Granted, there are still quite a few questions that need to be asked, including what will the team do with Alex Pietrangelo? If they re-sign him, then the team is overloaded with defensemen and might have to consider the 8 players and a goalie scenario as opposed to 7-3-1.

However, I sense that even if the team does find a way to bring Pietrangelo back—which I think is likely—then the team will have to ship out a blueliner (maybe Justin Faulk) to give the team some salary cap relief and keep a 7-3-1 scenario, considering all the talent. The Blues have quite a bit of offensive firepower with a lot of young talent. The team will obviously keep Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz if he is extended, likely Brayden Schenn–maybe David Perron, maybe not. That’s the veterans. What about Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Sammy Blais? They are key young pieces with a ton of talent. That still leaves quite a few players exposed, including Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev, Zach Sanford…

So, no matter what moves they make, the Blues should lose a quality player. Don’t forget in goal…before Jordan Binnington came along, Ville Husso was considered their goalie of the future. Could he be the goalie of the future in Seattle now?

Zach Leach:

The expansion draft format, which will be the same for Seattle as it was for Vegas, is designed to hurt every team. The protection schemes combined with the exposure requirements ensure that each club must expose at least one or two players of value. However, the rules are most unfavorable not to the teams with the most high-end talent, but to the teams with the most depth, specifically those with considerable youth and homegrown talent signed long-term.

While rosters are sure to change before the Expansion Draft occurs—meaning projections will become much more accurate following the upcoming off-season—there are several teams who already look like they could be in trouble protecting their top assets from exposure. In my opinion, the standouts are the Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Nashville Predators, New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Washington Capitals. Each of these teams have strong depth in both forwards and defensemen, including valuable young players. The Flames, Hurricanes, and Predators will all have to make tough calls on the blue line between established veterans and budding young standouts, while the Islanders, Lightning, and Capitals won’t have much choice but to expose young defenders but will also face a crunch at forward that could cost veteran difference-makers.

However, at least each of these teams has a chance at postseason glory this year (hopefully) and next before their rosters take a hit. The Sabres should be the team most afraid of the expansion draft because they look primed to lose a key young player before they are even done putting together a contending squad. With many strong defensemen and a growing core of impressive forwards, Buffalo will have to expose notable names. On defense, only two of Rasmus Ristolainen, Henri Jokiharju, Brandon Montour, and Colin Miller can be protected alongside Rasmus Dahlin, while upfront the team must protect centerpieces Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart, and Victor Olofsson, not to mention the presumed top-six forward they have long been rumored to be seeking this summer, leaving few spots for a large group of up-and-comers including Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Rasmus Asplund, and Dominik Kahun.

Gavin Lee:

When this year’s trade deadline was approaching and rumors started swirling around the Minnesota Wild, a few interesting names hit the news. The team was apparently considering a move of either Mathew Dumba or Jonas Brodin, two players who seemed to be core contributors that were still young enough to be part of a retooled competitive window.

The reason may well be the expansion draft, where new Wild GM Bill Guerin will still be in tough thanks to his predecessors.

Remember that players who have no-movement clauses require automatic protection from the draft, eating up precious spots. The Wild have four such players: Zach Parise, Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Suter, and Jared Spurgeon. If the draft rolls around and all four players are still on the roster (and refuse to waive their clauses), it’s going to be hard for the Wild to protect all of their young talent. Remember, even Zuccarello will be turning 34 just a few months after the draft.

Brodin is an unrestricted free agent in 2021, meaning he may end up on the trade block no matter what, but if they had any inkling of extending the reliable defender it would only complicate things further.

No doubt this was also a consideration when Guerin almost traded Parise to the New York Islanders at the deadline. Moving the veteran forward would really be a blessing for the team, despite how difficult it would be to see a franchise (and Minnesota) legend leave town.

Cory Conacher Expected To Sign In Swiss League

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Five years ago, Cory Conacher decided to head to Switzerland over primarily playing in the AHL but came back after that one season.  It appears that the pending unrestricted free agent is leaning towards going down that path again as Gregory Beaud and Jerome Reynard of Le Matin report that Conacher is expected to sign with Lausanne of the Swiss NLA for next season.

The 30-year-old has seen at least one NHL game with the Lightning in each of the four seasons he has played since the 2016-17 campaign.  However, aside from a 36-game stretch in 2017-18, his role has primarily been as a short-term injury recall with the majority of his playing time coming in the minors.

This season, Conacher has played in four games with Tampa Bay, collecting a single assist.  However, he continues to be quite productive in the minors, tallying 14 goals and 24 assists in 43 games with AHL Syracuse.  It’s that ability to produce in the AHL that has helped lead the Lightning to give him one-way deals in three of the last four seasons but with his NHL time diminishing, it would certainly be understandable if they didn’t want to do so again.

If this is indeed the end of his NHL playing days, he’ll wrap up with 75 points in 193 NHL contests between the Lightning (two separate stints), Senators, Sabres, and Islanders.

Stretch Run Storylines: Tampa Bay Lightning

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We look at the Atlantic Division with Tampa Bay.

It’s been a strange year for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who many felt would step into the 2019-20 season with vengeance in their minds after an embarrassing first-round exit in the playoffs last year when they were the most dominant team in hockey. Instead, the team started slowly and quickly found themselves sitting outside the playoffs. There was even some discussion that the team could let go head coach Jon Cooper, although general manager Julien BriseBois gave him a vote of confidence. Then everything changed around Christmas when the Lightning went on a 10-game winning streak and followed that up in late January with an 11-game winning streak that vaulted them into a solid second place standing in the Atlantic Division.

Stamkos Return?

The timing of his injury couldn’t have been worse back in early March when it was announced that Steven Stamkos would be out for six to eight weeks to have surgery to repair a core muscle injury. That would likely have required the top-line star to miss the first round of the playoffs in the best case scenario. The suspension of play is only going to be an advantage to injured players as it gives them time to heal and Stamkos could receive the biggest advantage as he now should have plenty of time to recover and be ready to hit the ice when play resumes. So far he’s close to reaching the half-way point of his recovery process and in a few weeks time could be ready for action again, which should be plenty of time.

Stamkos is second on the team in scoring with 29 goals and 66 points and while those numbers are down compared to previous seasons, likely due to his core muscle injury that has slowed him down, a healthy Stamkos could be a difference-maker in the playoffs.

Salary Cap Issues

The Lightning also have to start looking to the 2020-21 season when their salary cap could be significantly affected, especially if the cap flatlines. The team doesn’t have any significant contracts that are set to expire and those that are, like Kevin Shattenkirk or Pat Maroon, are players the Lightning are likely going to want to extend.

Throw in the fact that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy’s new contract will kick in as his AAV will go from $3.5MM to $9.5MM, and the fact that defenseman Mikhail Sergachev’s entry-level deal expires, meaning a raise is in order for the fast-developing blueliner and Tampa Bay has some issues.

That likely will require BriseBois to make some trades to fix those cap concerns and even out their roster. He had some success at that last year when he was able to trade forward J.T. Miller to Vancouver for a conditional first-rounder that since has been traded away for more immediate help. The team may have to unload even more this offseason to balance the cap.

Potential Meeting With Maple Leafs

If the playoffs do hit, it almost seems inevitable that the Lightning will find themselves with the inconsistent, but potential playoff wrecker in the Maple Leafs. The team avoided their top-heavy Atlantic last season, clinching first place and a wild-card opponent. Unfortunately, that didn’t go well as they were swept by Columbus.

However, with Boston eight points ahead of the Lightning, it’s obvious that they will face off against Toronto. While the Maple Leafs have been erratic all season, that doesn’t mean the Lightning are looking forward to the combination of John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, any of which can change the outcome of playoff games. It could be the most interesting of the first-round matchups, assuming the playoffs happen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Lightning’s Steven Stamkos Out Six To Eight Weeks

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March 3: Stamkos underwent successful surgery on Monday. His timeline has not changed.

February 29: The Tampa Bay Lightning suffered a significant loss when the team announced that captain Steven Stamkos will miss the next six to eight weeks to have surgery to repair a core muscle injury, which he is expected to have Monday, March 2. To make matters worse for the Lightning, even if the estimated injury time is on the short end (six weeks), Stamkos is still likely to miss some playoff time as the playoffs start in five weeks from today.

That’s a serious issue for a team that were swept out of the first-round of the playoffs last season by the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Lightning have been up and down all season, on top of that, and while it looked like the team was heading in a positive direction recently, clearly establishing themselves as the Atlantic Divsion’s second-best team and looking to challenge the Boston Bruins for first place, the Lightning have now lost four straight.

The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) wrote Friday that there was some concern regarding Stamkos, who was held out of Thursday’s game due to a lower-body injury. He has missed three games earlier in the month and has skipped several practices and skates to heal his injury. Jon Cooper has already said that the team will have to go “game-to-game” with Stamkos until this announcement.

Stamkos’ loss is critical, not just because the 30-year-old’s a top-line player who currently has 29 goals this season, but because of his leadership in the locker room. On top of that, this has been an issue for the veteran for quite a while and yet, Stamkos has still been quite effective. Unfortunately, the team has to hope it can continue on its course and finish strong during the regular season as well as hope that it can win some playoff games without him until Stamkos is ready to return.

Evening Notes: Marleau, Stamkos, Timashov, Merzlikins

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Just a handful of months ago, veteran winger Patrick Marleau made it clear he only wanted to play for the San Jose Sharks after he was bought out of his previous contract. He did eventually sign with them, but with Marleau’s approval, the Sharks traded him to the Pittsburgh Penguins at the trade deadline in hopes he might be able to chase a Stanley Cup.

However, with just 51 games remaining before he breaks Gordie Howe’s games played record, many wonder if Marleau might opt to re-sign with the Sharks this summer. When asked, Marleau admitted that might be a possibility, according to Mercury News’ Curtis Pashelka.

“Yeah, I think the door’s open maybe to come back,” said Marleau. “I definitely would like to play another season, so that would be good.”

  • Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper said that the decision to allow forward Steven Stamkos to undergo muscle core surgery was a tough one, but was the result of multiple tests and discussions with Stamkos and doctors, according to The Athletic’s Joe Smith. Stamkos will have the surgery on Monday and will miss six to eight weeks, meaning he is likely to miss some of the playoffs. The timing is tough, but Cooper added, “Good thing is when it gets done, it’s done, and now we never have to worry bout it again.”
  • Detroit Red Wings forward Dmytro Timashov, claimed off waivers last Monday, will make his debut with the Red Wings Saturday in Ottawa. However, the forward will not travel with the team back home, however, as the forward is still dealing with visa issues and can only play with Detroit because they are in Canada at the moment, according to NHL.com’s Dana Wakiji. “He’ll have to stay in Canada here,” head coach Jeff Blashill said. “He has to pick up his passport. So he’s hoping to get that Monday and get back for the game Monday night.”
  • The Athletic’s Alison Lukan reports that Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins, who left last Monday’s game after colliding with Ottawa’s Anthony Duclair, is out with a concussion. The scribe writes that the head injury is considered to be minor, but Columbus is taking the injury cautiously. Merzlikins has a 2.53 goals against and a .922 save percentage in 32 appearances. However, with Joonas Korpisalo back in the fold, the team doesn’t have to rush Merzlikins back quickly.

Atlantic Notes: Blashill, Krug, Ceci, Kinkaid

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The Detroit Red Wings find themselves at the bottom of the NHL this season with a dismal 15-47-4 record and already have been eliminated from a potential playoff spot on Feb. 21.

That could spell the end for head coach Jeff Blashill, who could find himself out of a job when the regular season ends. Both general manager Steve Yzerman and president and CEO Christopher Illitch have been supportive of Blashill recently. However, Illitch went a step further on Friday, stating that Blashill’s job will be completely in the hands of Yzerman, in an interview with the Detroit Free Press’ Carlos Monarrez.

“I think Steve had indicated that Jeff and Steve are going to talk after the season’s over and they’ll talk about the future and we’ll see where it goes,” said Illitch. “But at the end of the day, that’s Steve’s call. I support it, but I agree with Steve. I think Jeff’s done a good job in the situation he’s been given.”

Last Monday, Yzerman told the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James that the team can’t blame all the losing on Blashill and was supportive of a coach that he inherited last year when he took over as GM.

“It’s unfair to judge Jeff Blashill on our team’s record, it really is,” said Yzerman. “I put this team together. I had expectations for the year. I don’t think this is a playoff team honestly. A lot of things would have had to go right for us to be a playoff team at the start of the year. Obviously that hasn’t happened. A lot of things went wrong that we necessarily didn’t forsee, whether it be injury or what not.”

  • With rumors that Boston Bruins defenseman Torey Krug, an unrestricted free agent this summer, could be looking for a $9MM per year on the open market and potentially asking for $8MM from the Boston Bruins, WEEI’s Matt Kalman spoke to Krug who said that he hasn’t changed his mindset on negotiations with the Bruins. “No, I’ve been in the same spot from Day One. Just obviously trying to respect the situation here and trying to find a balance of being paid fairly and obviously being part of a winning team too,” Krug said. Krug has eight goals and 45 points this year and is a key piece to the team, but at 28 years of age, the Bruins may be hesitant to hand him a long-term deal. The team did free up some cap room at the trade deadline, unloading the albatross contract of David Backes as well as moving Danton Heinen, but the team has a number of other players it needs to sign as well.
  • While there is no word on when Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Cody Ceci might return, the blueliner did participate in Saturday’s morning skate, signaling he might not be that far away from returning, according to TSN’s Kristen Shilton. “It’s moving along pretty good. [Morning skate] was a nice step for me,” said Ceci, who is out with an ankle injury since Feb. 5. His next step is to take contact at a full practice.
  • In an unusual AHL transaction, the Laval Rocket announced they have re-assigned goaltender Keith Kinkaid to the Charlotte Checkers of the AHL. Kinkaid signed with the Montreal Canadiens in the offseason as the backup to Carey Price. However, Kinkaid struggled in six appearances with a .875 save percentage. He has played with the Rocket for 13 appearances with little more success (.876 save percentage) and now will attempt to help out the Checkers, the AHL affiliate, who lost both Anton Forsberg and Alex Nedeljkovic to the Carolina Hurricanes after their two starters went down with injury. Regardless, it’s an AHL transactions, which means his contract still belongs to the Canadiens.

Mike Condon Assigned To Charlotte Checkers

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If you wondered how the Charlotte Checkers were going to get by after both Alex Nedeljkovic and Anton Forsberg were recalled to fill in for the Carolina Hurricanes, you now have your answer. The Tampa Bay Lightning have loaned Mike Condon to the Checkers from the Syracuse Crunch, where he had been buried but was rarely playing. Condon is on the final season of his three-year, $7.2MM deal and will still count towards the Tampa Bay cap, but can now actually get some action with the Checkers.

The 29-year old goaltender has hit the ice six times for the Crunch and another four times for the Orlando Solar Bears of the ECHL this season, ten forgettable appearances in total. Once considered a legitimate NHL option, Condon recorded a .905 save percentage in 129 appearances for the Montreal Canadiens, Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators between 2015-2018.

At this point, just getting an opportunity to play in the AHL should be good enough for Condon as it looked like his career in North America might be coming to an end.

Barclay Goodrow Headed To Tampa Bay

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Even though the trade deadline has officially passed, the backlog of deals is still slowly leaking out. This time it’s a trade between the San Jose Sharks and Tampa Bay Lightning which will see Barclay Goodrow switch coasts. The Lightning will receive Goodrow and a 2020 third-round selection in exchange for a 2020 first-round pick and Anthony Greco.

Goodrow, 26, is a great story of hard work and dedication paying off, after going undrafted out of the OHL. After signing with the Sharks as a free agent in 2014, he quickly showed that he could compete at the NHL level even without much AHL seasoning. By the time he did spend some real time in the minor leagues he was ready to dominate, scoring 90 points in 125 games for San Jose’s affiliate. The last three seasons have been spent entirely in the NHL, where he has posted a career-high 24 points in 2019-20.

Perhaps best remembered for his overtime goal against the Vegas Golden Knights after the infamous major penalty comeback, Goodrow will give the Lightning another bottom-six center option and is signed through next season at an incredibly low number. Tampa Bay will owe him just $850K for the 2020-21 season, though his cap hit comes in slightly higher at $950K.

That inexpensive contract is the crux of this deal for the Lightning, who are about to face another cap crunch when they try to negotiate new deals with Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak. The team wasn’t able to bring in high priced talent with any term, but landed another player they feel will be a contributor towards a Stanley Cup.

Minor Transactions: 02/24/20

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With the trade deadline coming to a close at 2 p.m., many NHL teams are likely to make roster moves to replace or add to incoming/outgoing trades. On top of that, today is the deadline for AHL teams to fortify their rosters for the AHL playoffs, meaning NHL players must be on the AHL roster before the end of the day if they want to play in the playoffs. Keep an eye on this page throughout the day.

  • The Calgary Flames announced that they have assigned forward Buddy Robinson to the Stockton Heat of the AHL. Robinson has been scratched for the past eight games, but has a goal in five NHL games with the Flames. However, with 16 goals and 30 points in 40 games, it’s likely a move to ensure that Robinson gets some playoff time for the Heat, who are currently sitting in first place in the Pacific Division.
  • The New Jersey Devils announced they have assigned forward Nick Merkley to the Binghamton Devils of the AHL, again a paper transaction so that the 22-year-old is eligible to play in the AHL playoffs down the road. Merkley has fared well in four games with the Devils since his recall, putting up a goal and an assist.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs made a move as they announced they have recalled defenseman Kevin Gravel from the Toronto Marlies of the AHL. The move could have something to do with trade rumors surrounding Tyson Barrie, but no such move has been made yet. Gravel has one assist in 15 games with the Marlies and is scoreless in three games for the Maple Leafs.
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning announced they have assigned defenseman Cameron Gaunce to the Syracuse Crunch of the AHL. The 29-year-old Gaunce has filled in for injuries to Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak and has fared well with a goal and four points in three games for the Lightning. He is likely headed down after Tampa Bay signed defenseman Zach Bogosian to a contract for the remainder of the year.
  • StarTribune’s Sarah McLellan reports that the Minnesota Wild have assigned forward Gerald Mayhew and defenseman Louis Belpedio to the Iowa Wild in the AHL, which allows both players to be eligible for the AHL playoffs. Iowa is currently in second place in the Central Division and will likely need Mayhew, who has notched 39 goals in 48 games (and another two in Minnesota). Belpedio has 18 points and 98 penalty minutes in Iowa.

Lightning Sign Zach Bogosian

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Zach Bogosian’s time as an unrestricted free agent was short-lived.  The Lightning announced that they’ve signed him to a one-year deal worth a pro-rated $1.3MM.

It has been an interesting last week for the 29-year-old.  After asking for a trade, the Sabres found no takers and decided to waive him.  Due to his $5.143MM AAV, he went unclaimed and was assigned to the AHL.  However, he chose not to report and was suspended without pay.  Buffalo then played him on unconditional waivers on Friday for the purposes of terminating his contract and once he cleared on Saturday, he became a free agent.

While he struggled with the Sabres both in terms of his on-ice play and staying healthy (he played in just 19 games this season, recording six points while logging a career-low 16:50 per contest), Bogosian should be a good fit with Tampa Bay.  Erik Cernak was injured on Saturday while Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta are still working their way back from injuries as well.  As a result, there’s an immediate need for him to step in and even if he was to fall out of their top six when everyone is healthy, he’d serve as capable injury insurance down the stretch and for what could be a lengthy playoff run.

TSN’s Darren Dreger was the first to report that Bogosian had reached an agreement with Tampa Bay.

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