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Snapshots: Power, Olympics, Orlando

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The past few days have been quite the event in NHL news, leading up to the Seattle Expansion Draft on Wednesday and the NHL Entry Draft on Friday. But while the majority of news and notes have had to do with the Kraken, including their reported signing of goalie Chris Driedger earlier today, the Entry Draft hasn’t been lost in the shuffle. TSN’s Bob McKenzie, in his final draft piece before the event on Friday, states that in his polling of NHL scouts, University of Michigan defenseman Owen Power has pulled away from the rest of the field and is the consensus No. 1 overall choice ahead of the draft. This comes after reports that the Buffalo Sabres, who hold the first pick, had yet to interview Power and had significant interest in Swedish forward William Eklund instead. But based on McKenzie’s polling, it seems as though Buffalo will still be selecting Power with that first choice. What remains to be seen is if the Sabres acquire an additional top-10 draft choice ahead of Friday, allowing them to potentially select both Power and Eklund. What’s for sure is that neither will join the team next season, as both Power and Eklund have expressed their desire to return to their respective teams for at least one more season.

  • ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski notes that despite the NHL expected to leave an Olympic break in their 2021-22 schedule, their participation in the event is not yet confirmed. This builds on earlier reporting that the NHL had until July 23rd to find a resolution for the situation. However, that was based on the fact that the schedule would be final and without modification. The expectation here is that with an Olympic break built into the schedule, the NHL won’t need to add any time to the season if they are able to send their players to China in 2022. If not, the schedule can be adjusted without extending the season.
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning announced in a press release today that they’ve extended their ECHL affiliation with the Orlando Solar Bears for two years. The agreement takes the two teams through the 2022-23 season and ensures a pipeline of Orlando in the ECHL and Syracuse in the AHL remains constant for the next two seasons. Orlando, previously the ECHL affiliate of the Toronto Maple Leafs, has seen success in recent years after matching with the Lightning organization. The team likely appreciates having a relatively local minor league affiliate and had no desire to move elsewhere.

Tampa Bay Lightning Extend Fredrik Claesson

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The deal seemingly has no real Expansion Draft implications whatsoever, but the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions snuck it in before the transaction freeze anyway. The Tampa Bay Lightning have announced that depth defenseman Fredrik Claesson has signed a one-year, two-way extension with the team. The contract carries a minimum $750K NHL salary and $250K AHL salary.

Though seemingly a minor deal, with the serious cap crunch facing the Lightning this off-season there is no minimum salary player that can be ruled out from earning a regular role on the team. Claesson, 28, has six NHL seasons on his resume, including a full-year stint with the Ottawa Senators a few years ago, and could be ready to challenge for a consistent NHL roster spot once again. Tampa GM Julien Brisebois did go out of his way to acquire Claesson from the San Jose Sharks at the Trade Deadline, head coach John Cooper played him in a pair of games down the stretch, and now his extension has been prioritized this summer. It all points to Claesson being more than just AHL depth next season.

A journeyman defenseman who has mostly played bottom-pair minutes, Claesson has nevertheless been able to produce at a moderate level with 28 points in 161 games, .67 points per 60 minutes. In his standout season with Ottawa in 2016-17, Claesson was also extremely aggressive, logging 158 hits in 64 games. Playing a regular role on a team with the talent of Tampa and an elite goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy taking some pressure off of the defense, Claesson could actually make a difference.

New York Rangers Obtain Signing Rights To Barclay Goodrow

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Forward Barclay Goodrow is slated for unrestricted free agency on July 28 and in the meantime very well might be left exposed in the NHL Expansion Draft, leaving him free to negotiate with the Seattle Kraken. However, should he not sign with Seattle, Goodrow’s exclusive negotiating rights now belong to the New York Rangers. The team took the minor risk of getting a head start on contract talks with the two-way winger by sending a 2022 seventh-round pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for his expiring contract. That risk will be well worth it if Goodrow signs with New York, as he was expected to draw considerable interest on the open market. The Lightning were not able to extend Goodrow due to salary cap concerns, so they will happily settle for an extra draft pick.

While Goodrow was known as a good two-way forward during his time in San Jose, he blossomed over the past two seasons in Tampa. His offense has improved as has his physicality, creating a dangerous bottom-six combination. A hard-nosed player who excels at even strength and on the penalty kill, Goodrow could assist the Rangers in a number of ways. Namely, new GM Chris Drury wanted to make the team more difficult to play against and adding Goodrow would accomplish that.

However, New York needs to be careful not to negotiate against themselves in this situation. While there has already been rampant speculation that Goodrow could command a long-term contract or considerable salary this off-season, that is with the presumption that he reaches the open market. The Rangers have too many promising young players that will need expensive extensions down the road, not to mention a major hole at top-six center, to get roped into overpaying for a bottom-six forward. Their only competition for Goodrow right now is the Seattle Kraken, otherwise they would be wise to negotiate as if they have exclusive rights and try to keep Goodrow’s value from being artificially inflated before free agency begins.

Tampa Bay Lightning Reveal Playoff Injuries

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The Tampa Bay Lightning, like any victorious team in the NHL, had to battle through most countless injuries in the postseason. Today at his end-of-season press availability, Julien BriseBois gave some updates on the health of his players. First and foremost was Victor Hedman, who tore his meniscus on March 30 and will get surgery to repair it today. The Norris finalist is expected to be out just two to four weeks, meaning he is not in danger of missing next season.

As Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times reports, BriseBois also revealed that both Ryan McDonagh and Barclay Goodrow broke their hands in the playoffs, while Nikita Kucherov had a non-displaced rib fracture that required an injection before each game. These injuries are in addition to the broken fibula that Alex Killorn had previously revealed, which kept him out of all but one game in the Finals, and various other ailments (Blake Coleman was seen with his arm in a sling) that were not mentioned by BriseBois.

It has almost become a ritual at this point, as teams finish their postseason runs, to reveal countless major injuries that the roster was battling through. Tampa Bay is no different than every other team in this regard, but it is still impressive to hear how the players continued to perform through injury. Hedman, for instance, averaged nearly 25 minutes a night in the series against Montreal, eclipsing 26 in each of the final two games.

All of the injured players, whether they are getting surgery or not, are expected to be ready for training camp according to BriseBois.

Alex Killorn (Fractured Fibula) Should Be Healthy By Training Camp

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  • Lightning winger Alex Killorn should be fully recovered for training camp, relays Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times. The veteran fractured his fibula blocking a point shot in the opening game of the Stanley Cup Final and has already undergone surgery.  While he was hoping to get back into the lineup later in the series had it gone that far, the recovery time for this injury is closer to three to four weeks.

Tampa Bay Lightning Face Salary Cap Crunch

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Much has been made over the Tampa Bay Lightning’s usage of LTIR loopholes this season, especially after winger Nikita Kucherov returned from injury to lead the team in scoring en route to a second-straight championship. But with Tampa Bay advantageously using the expiring contracts of both Marian Gaborik and Anders Nilsson to add to their LTIR relief, they won’t have the opportunity next season to do the same.

The Lightning currently sit $3.52MM over the $81.5MM Upper Limit, and that’s with an already depleted roster. There are multiple takeaways from this.

For one, it’s unlikely that any notable pending Lightning unrestricted free agent re-signs with the team. As their priority stands to clear salary, it’s becoming more and more apparent that the 2021-22 Tampa Bay Lightning squad won’t have the experienced depth of years past. While they did well to extend certain depth pieces like Patrick Maroon on cheap, multi-year deals into next season, others like Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow won’t be able to fit under the flat salary cap.

Conversely, it’s likely that the Lightning will rely even more on young, in-house depth to fill out the roster around their core pieces. They’ll need repeat performances from players like Ross Colton and steps forward from players like Mathieu Joseph and Alex Barre-Boulet in order to generate any level of depth scoring.

But what really sticks out is that aforementioned $3.52MM number. That’s only taking 16 skaters and one goaltender into account, meaning that the Bolts will need to clear multiple contracts in order to be cap-compliant and ice a full roster on opening night. It’s likely that two out of the trio of Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, and Alex Killorn will have to be moved this offseason in order to fit salary constraints. Tampa probably prefers it to be the first two names on that list, as Killorn has been an indelible piece in their top-six in recent years.

There are options for the Bolts with the expansion draft looming. While moving any of those three players can be somewhat challenging due to their no-trade clauses, the Lightning can ship an additional asset to Seattle via trade to ensure that the Kraken will take a specific player at the draft. It might be a necessary solution, no matter how tough to swallow it is so soon after a Stanley Cup win.

All contract information is via CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning Win 2021 Stanley Cup Championship

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For just the second time since the turn of the century, the NHL champion reigns for a second consecutive season. The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Montreal Canadiens 1-0 in Game Five at home on Wednesday night, cementing their back-to-back champion status after taking home the Stanley Cup in 2020 as well. Young Ross Colton scored the only goal of the game early in the second period and his teammates played tough defense to keep Montreal off the board for a shutout win to seal it.

The 2020-21 season was far different for the Lightning, though. In 2019-20, Tampa was a wire-to-wire favorite, leading the league in goals for and finishing second in goal differential, which earned them a share of the third-best record in the league. This year, the Lightning had their fair share of issues along the way, finishing only third in their own division and eighth overall in the league, falling to eighth in scoring and seventh in differential. Yet, in the postseason they were even better this time around than they were last year. In the 2020 playoffs, the Bolts recorded 3.08 goals for per game and 2.28 goals against per game, finished fifth in power play and penalty kill efficiency, and required extra time to win seven games. This year, Tampa Bay notched 3.26 goals for per game and led the postseason with 1.96 goals against per game, finished third and fourth respectively on the power play and penalty kill, and did not need overtime to win a single game.

Though it may not explain every difference between this season and last, it is hard to argue against the x-factor this season for the Lightning being Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov, the 2020 postseason scoring leader, missed the entire regular season after undergoing off-season hip surgery. While this cost Tampa one of the best players in the league, which could explain their regular season drop-off, the added salary cap space allowed the team to keep their championship roster together against all odds. Kucherov then returned to health in time for the playoff and again led the field in scoring – and by a wide margin. Having a fresh, energized Kucherov in the lineup was key to the Bolts’ success, especially as they faced several defensively skilled teams. While opinions differ on the integrity of how Tampa Bay managed Kucherov’s injury, the team stayed within the NHL’s rules and it led to a second consecutive title. While some may also argue that the Lightning’s back-to-back Stanley Cups came in the 2020 “bubble” playoffs and following a shortened 2020-21 season, it is difficult to see this roster not finding success under normal circumstances as well. Kucherov was followed in the 2021 playoff scoring race by four teammates – Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, and Alex Killorn – to round out the top five, while Conn Smythe Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy had the best goaltending numbers of the postseason and was clutch when it mattered most, including a shutout to clinch all four series. The likes of Ondrej Palat, Anthony Cirelli, and Ryan McDonagh were also phenomenal for Tampa.

As for the other Stanley Cup finalist, the efforts of the Montreal Canadiens were valiant and will not soon be forgotten. The team with the worst regular season record in the postseason stunned two top-five teams en route to a completely improbable and unforeseen trip to the championship round. They will get a chance at revenge soon – Tampa Bay and Montreal will be back together in the Atlantic Division again next season, alongside several other top teams.

Expansion Primer: Detroit Red Wings

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time we gathered here to determine the Detroit Red Wings’ expansion draft considerations, the team was in a steep downward decline. Yet they still ended up losing a bit of a diamond in the rough, as the Vegas Golden Knights selected forward Tomas Nosek. Nosek’s been a contributor in a bottom-six role every season in Vegas’ history, robbing Detroit of some quality depth. Now, with Detroit having hit the rock-bottom of their rebuild, their expansion situation looks fairly clear-cut this time around. With a lot of young talent exempt (and no Jimmy Howard/Petr Mrazek goalie controversy), the Red Wings and general manager Steve Yzerman are in a good position coming into 2021’s Seattle expansion draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Riley Barber, Tyler Bertuzzi, Adam Erne, Robby Fabbri, Dylan Larkin, Frans Nielsen, Richard Panik, Vladislav Namestnikov, Michael Rasmussen, Givani Smith, Evgeny Svechnikov, Hayden Verbeek, Jakub Vrana

Defense:
Dennis Cholowski, Danny DeKeyser, Christian Djoos, Filip Hronek, Gustav Lindstrom, Troy Stecher

Goalies:
Kaden Fulcher, Thomas Greiss

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Valtteri Filppula, F Sam Gagner, F Luke Glendening, F Darren Helm, F Bobby Ryan, D Alex Biega, D Marc Staal, G Jonathan Bernier

Notable Exemptions

F Joseph Veleno, F Filip Zadina, D Jared McIsaac, D Moritz Seider, G Filip Larsson

Key Decisions

The key decisions start with Detroit’s young forward group. They’ll undoubtedly be going with the seven forwards/three defensemen protection scheme. Four of those forward spots are relatively clear-cut, with Larkin, Bertuzzi, Fabbri, and recent acquisition Vrana being protection locks. That leaves three spots remaining, but with a mix of four veterans and young forwards competing for them.

The veteran of those candidates is Namestnikov. Signed to a two-year, $4MM deal prior to 2020-21 to provide some veteran presence during their rebuild, Namestnikov had his worst offensive season to date with just 17 points in 53 games. His defensive metrics were mediocre, which is on-brand for the versatile Russian forward. Detroit was Namestnikov’s fourth team since the beginning of 2019-20, and if left unprotected, Seattle could be his fifth.

However, there’s a trio of three younger forwards who could also vie for those spots. Erne, Rasmussen, and Svechnikov all looked good with the Wings this season. It was an especially important season for Svechnikov, who’s struggled with frequent injuries. He rebounded this year for eight points in 21 games while posting incredibly impressive possession metrics. Erne had a nice rebound season after a ghastly 2019-20 performance, scoring 11 goals and 20 points in 45 games. While his 15.5% shooting rate doesn’t scream sustainability, the 26-year-old showed nice flashes this season. There’s also Rasmussen, who’s still a developing project despite already playing in over 100 NHL contests. Drafted ninth overall in 2017, Rasmussen’s now totalled 30 points in 102 NHL games, including 12 points in 40 games last season. He’s consistently posted decent possession results, suggesting that the goal-scoring touch he had in juniors could be coming.

Detroit faces a similar quandary on defense with three names fighting for two spots. Hronek’s protection is a foregone conclusion, but Stecher, Cholowski, and Lindstrom are names that could fall into those last two spots.

Stecher sits as effectively a more impressive Namestnikov. Joining Detroit as a free agent prior to this season, Stecher settled nicely into a top-four role, posting admirable defensive metrics considering the hacked-together situation that was Detroit’s defense. However, like Namestnikov, he’s under contract for just one more season and there’s no guarantee that he stays. There’s also a pair of younger defenders in Cholowski and Lindstrom. Cholowski was a first-round pick in 2016 and showed great potential in his 2018-19 rookie season, but has stagnated at all levels since then. Detroit is willing to play the wait-and-see game with the young defender, who may see a full-time role again next year after just 16 games played in 2020-21. Lindstrom’s a year younger and doesn’t have as much upside, but he’s cobbled together four assists in 29 NHL games and could have third-pairing potential.

Projected Protection List

F Tyler Bertuzzi
F Adam Erne
F Robby Fabbri
F Dylan Larkin
F Michael Rasmussen
F Evgeny Svechnikov
F Jakub Vrana

D Dennis Cholowski
D Filip Hronek
D Troy Stecher

G Thomas Greiss

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Vladislav Namestnikov, Frans Nielsen, Richard Panik
Defensemen (1): Danny DeKeyser

There are very few pickings here that the Kraken would be interested in, and Detroit is likely to emerge from the expansion draft unscathed. While Detroit will have some depth forwards exposed, Seattle can likely find cheaper and better options elsewhere. Seattle could end up taking an AHL skater with limited upside like Lindstrom or Smith, or take a pending UFA like Glendening if they really don’t like any of their options.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Alex Killorn Travels To Montreal, Status For Friday Not Yet Known

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  • Lightning winger Alex Killorn made the trip to Montreal as the Stanley Cup Final continues, notes Mari Faiello of the Tampa Bay Times. He missed yesterday’s game after blocking a shot late in the second period but while Killorn flew out with the team, head coach Jon Cooper wouldn’t commit to providing an update on whether or not the veteran will be available for Friday’s third game of the series.

Poll: Who Will Win The 2021 Stanley Cup?

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The 2020-21 NHL season has been an adventurous one and that’s putting it lightly.  From a delayed start to rapid in-season scheduling changes, there have been plenty of hiccups along the way but they managed to make it through the abbreviated regular season schedule and the first three rounds of the playoffs.  Included in the schedule this season, of course, were new divisions with the end result being that a team that’s normally in the East won the trophy that typically goes to the winner of the Western Conference.  In a year like this though, there have been stranger things than that.

In the end, there are just two teams remaining.  One is the defending Stanley Cup champion that many expected to be in the mix to win it again.  The other is a team that lost more games than it won during the regular season and virtually no one expected them to make it anywhere near this far.

Let’s start with Tampa Bay.  The defending champs added a healthy Nikita Kucherov to the mix for the playoffs after he missed the entire season due to hip surgery and he hasn’t missed a beat; his 27 points not only lead the team but lead the entire league in scoring so far.  Brayden Point just had a nine-game goal stretch snapped in Friday’s series-clinching victory over the Islanders and the end result is an attack that is averaging the second-most goals per game of any playoff team at 3.22 (Colorado was first, averaging 3.8 in their two series).  They’re also one of the stingiest defensive teams with Andrei Vasilevskiy pitching four shutouts already.

As for Montreal, they’ve won with a balanced lineup that has taken turns scoring just enough in key moments to get them over the top.  Cole Caufield – who was playing college hockey three months ago – has turned into a key cog offensively while Nick Suzuki has elevated his play in the playoffs for the second straight year as well.  Carey Price is playing some of the best hockey of his career and their penalty kill has been nothing short of outstanding.  They haven’t allowed a power play goal in 13 games – an NHL playoff record – and have killed off 30 straight opportunities (outscoring their opponents 3-0 along the way).

That theme may very well be the most interesting one of the series (even more than the goalie matchup) – Montreal’s dominant penalty kill versus Tampa Bay’s elite power play which is clicking along at a whopping 37.7%.  While there haven’t been a lot of penalties called in the playoffs, special teams have been game-changers for both teams so far.  Will that trend continue for one of them?

It’s a unique Stanley Cup matchup, one that we’re unlikely to see again since the league is going back to its usual conference format for 2021-22 and beyond.  Which team will come out victorious?  Will the Lightning make it two in a row or will the Canadiens pull off one more upset?  Make your prediction by voting in the poll below.

Who Will Win The 2021 Stanley Cup?
Lightning in 6 28.52% (470 votes)
Canadiens in 6 23.73% (391 votes)
Lightning in 5 20.81% (343 votes)
Canadiens in 7 14.81% (244 votes)
Lightning in 4 4.98% (82 votes)
Lightning in 7 3.28% (54 votes)
Canadiens in 5 2.43% (40 votes)
Canadiens in 5 1.46% (24 votes)
Total Votes: 1,648

Mobile users, click here to vote.

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