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Central Notes: Tortorella, Lehtonen, Barkov, McDonagh

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Columbus Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen wasn’t too happy about the two-game sweep the team endured over the weekend to the lowly Detroit Red Wings. In fact, the GM is quite frustrated with the team’s struggles.

“It’s shocking,” Kekalainen said. “Especially to think that we played some of our best hockey just before that (vs. Carolina). To go to Detroit and play like that, get beaten like that twice in a row, is not good.”

However, The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline (subscription required) writes that despite the fact that John Tortorella is in the final year of his contract and is likely moving on at the end of the year, the team doesn’t seem intent on removing their head coach.

“It doesn’t look like a team, that’s the way I would put,” Kekalainen said. “I’m sure (Tortorella) is as frustrated as anybody right now. I’ve said it before: It can’t all fall on one guy. Players should have enough professional pride to always try to be at their best, play for the team, play for the logo and play for the organization. Right now we’re not looking like a team like that.”

  • Sticking with the Blue Jackets, defenseman Mikko Lehtonen will make his Columbus debut, according to Portzline. The blueliner was acquired from Toronto for goalie prospect Veini Vehvilainen on March 12 and has now passed through quarantine. The highly-touted offensive defenseman was a big signing by Toronto during the offseason, but couldn’t work his way into the lineup there, appearing in just nine games with three assists.
  • Florida Panthers head coach Joel Quenneville told reporters that star center Aleksander Barkov should return to the team shortly, according to NHL.com’s Jameson Olive. While Barkov was not on the ice Tuesday, Quenneville said he expects him to return at some point during the team’s four-game homestand. Barkov has missed four straight games with a lower-body injury.
  • Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Ryan McDonagh was on the ice for practice Tuesday with the team. However, the blueliner, who has missed three straight games due to a lower-body injury, wasn’t a full participant, rotating in at different times during drills, according to The Athletic’s Joe Smith. That would suggest that while McDonagh is close to returning to the lineup, he is likely still a few days away from returning to game action

Anaheim Ducks Acquire Alexander Volkov

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Late last night, the Anaheim Ducks made a move to secure some young talent. The team has acquired Alexander Volkov from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Antoine Morand and a conditional seventh-round selection in 2023. Ducks GM Bob Murray released a short statement on the move:

We are excited to have Alexander join our organization. We believe a fresh start will help him further develop as we look to continue adding youthful talent. 

Volkov, 23, has shown flashes of brilliance in his young career with the Lightning but was stuck behind a deep forward group and playing just a handful of shifts each game. In 19 appearances this season he had registered five points, averaging just under ten minutes a game. Originally selected 48th overall in 2017, the young Russian was a strong offensive force for three seasons with the Syracuse Crunch, but hasn’t yet been able to translate that to the NHL level. In Anaheim he’ll be given a fresh start with a team desperate for young scoring talent.

Importantly, Volkov is a restricted free agent this offseason and will be arbitration-eligible. The Ducks can afford to give him a raise to keep him on North American ice, but the Lightning likely couldn’t commit any more than the league minimum given their cap restraints. For Anaheim he is a worthwhile gamble given how little it cost to acquire him.

Morand, 22, was also a second-round pick in 2017, but hasn’t found any level of offensive success in the AHL so far. In 21 games this season he has just one goal and six points, a far cry from the numbers he put up in the QMJHL. Still, given Morand still has another year on his entry-level deal and will be a restricted free agent after that, perhaps the Lightning believe they can turn a corner in his development. The draft pick that comes along will be a seventh-rounder no matter what but could transfer to 2024 if the 2023 selection is unavailable due to a previous trade.

That’s not much to give up for a talent like Volkov, even if he hasn’t put it all together at this point. Getting NHL games out of Morand is not even close to a guarantee, but after going through protocols the Ducks could put Volkov in the lineup right away.

Nikita Kucherov Resumes Skating

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While he was ruled out for the year before the regular season got underway, Lightning winger Nikita Kucherov has resumed skating and is on pace to return for the start of the playoffs, notes Joe Smith of the Athletic (Twitter link).  The 27-year-old actually did some light work with Tampa Bay in practice although he’s still long way away from being ready to return.

The big question will be when he is indeed ready to play.  The Lightning can’t afford to activate him off LTIR at all this season due to their salary cap situation but if he has started light skating drills already, it may also be difficult to argue that he’ll need two full months to recover and then immediately be ready for game one of the playoffs just days later.  It’s certainly going to be something to keep an eye on although Tampa Bay is certainly thrilled that their top-scoring forward is doing well in his recovery from offseason surgery.

Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Daniel Walcott

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The Tampa Bay Lightning announced an extension for one of their minor league veterans last night, inking Daniel Walcott to a new two-year contract. The two-way deal will cover the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons and keep Walcott from becoming an unrestricted free agent later this summer.

Now 27, Walcott was originally selected in the fifth round of the 2014 draft as a defenseman but has played mostly forward of late during his minor league career. With the Syracuse Crunch since 2015, he now wears an “A” as an alternate captain. He never has played in the NHL and if he does, it will likely come as a fourth-line injury replacement.

Still, the Crunch have always valued the leadership that AHL veterans bring and Walcott has now been rewarded with a nice two-year contract. The financial details of the contract were not included in the press release, but his cap hit will almost assuredly stay buried anyway.

Jan Rutta Day-To-Day With A Lower-Body Injury

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  • Lightning defenseman Jan Rutta is day-to-day with a lower-body injury, the team announced (Twitter link). The veteran had played in every game for Tampa Bay until last night, notching six assists in 21 contests. The team doesn’t have enough room in LTIR to make another recall although they do still have six healthy blueliners on the roster for the time being.

Minor Transactions: 03/01/21

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As a strange season continues, with leagues around the globe at different places in their respective seasons, it does not appear as if there will ever be a shortage of noteworthy transactions. Here is the latest group of minor moves:

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning have reassigned a pair of prospects back to their junior clubs in the WHL, with the league finally getting back to work. Gage Goncalves and Jack Finley, both under contract, as well as fellow Tampa draft pick Jaydon Dureau had all been playing in the AHL with the Syracuse Crunch, albeit with four total appearances between them. All three will have a greater role as leaders of their junior teams. The trio are all staying in the U.S., as Goncalves returns to the Everett Silvertips, Finley to the Spokane Chiefs, and Dureau to the Portland Winterhawks.
  • The Laval Rocket and forward Kevin Lynch have agreed to a mutual contract termination. Laval revealed that Lynch and his family simply wished to return home to the U.S., so the Michigan native may still wind up with another club this season. Lynch, 29, is a veteran of over 200 AHL games and previously played on a two-way contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2018-19.
  • New York Rangers prospect Leevi Aaltonen does not appear too eager to begin his North American career any time soon. The 2019 fifth-round pick just moved to a new Liiga team, Kookoo, for the remainder of this season, the club announced. However, the new contract also includes an additional two years, keeping him under contract in Finland through the 2022-23 season. Fortunately, the Rangers have until June 1, 2023 to sign him to an entry-level contract before they would lose his rights. Aaltonen seems comfortable maximizing his development time at home in Finland before making that decision.

Trade Rumors: Market, Virtanen-Heinen, NMCs, Red Wings

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While the NHL Trade Deadline is exactly six weeks away and trade whispers have grown louder in recent days, a number of sources warn that it may be a mistake to expect an active trade market. The factors at play are what one might expect: the flat salary cap and clubs’ financial limitations as well as the U.S.-Canada border restrictions. Speaking on Sportsnet 960 in Calgary today, Elliotte Friedman noted that the market is much quieter than recent rumor and speculation has led everyone to believe. He cites the border issue – a mandatory 14-day quarantine for any player heading north – as limiting potential trade partners, but states that finances are an even greater inhibitor. Friedman said that many clubs are not looking to add salary and stress is being placed more on actual dollars than on cap hits. The Athletic’s Craig Custance and Eric Duhatschek take it even one step further, reporting that “few teams have permission to add salary” and noting that some non-contenders have been ordered by ownership to cut salary if at all possible. There is also the issue that many of the teams who may have the financial ability to add salary lack the cap space to do so. CapFriendly currently lists 16 teams – more than half the league – with projected cap space that amounts to less than a minimum salary and only seven teams currently in a playoff spot are among those with flexibility.

Fortunately, we may not be entirely without fireworks at the deadline. Friedman notes that major investments on players whose impact on teams will last beyond just this season or next could be seen as exceptions to the rule when it comes to adding salary. These additions can be excused as a financial commitment beyond the current financial and flat cap crises. Custance and Duhatschek also point out that for those Canadian teams with the means and desire to add, the deadline may be a little late given the possibility of lengthy quarantines, meaning trades could start up well before six weeks from now. There is hope that there will still be some transactional excitement this season and possibly even sooner rather than later.

  • It sure seemed like a notable trade was about to occur this weekend. On Saturday, it was reported by a number of sources that the Anaheim Ducks and Vancouver Canucks were nearing a deal that would have swapped Jake Virtanen and Danton Heinen. However, the deal never occurred and Friedman questions whether it was really as close as it was made out to be. The two sides certainly did discuss a trade and those two players in particular, and by all accounts continue to do so, but Friedman says that things got “carried away” before a firm deal was in place. The two sides are committed to balancing out the salaries in the trade and while Virtanen and Heinen do have very similar cap hits, their salaries are not even. In the final year of his contract, Heinen carries a $2.8MM AAV and near-equal amount of actual salary. Virtanen’s contract carries a $2.55MM AAV and he is owed only $1.7MM in salary this year, but he has an additional season remaining and $3.4MM in salary. That discrepancy is significant and a major hurdle and the reason why Friedman says a one-for-one swap was never a possibility. He notes that Derek Grant was discussed as a possible addition from Anaheim’s side and he could still be part of a final deal. In the first year of a three-year contract, Grant’s $1.5MM salary next year and $1.75MM in 2022-23 could help to offset Virtanen’s cost to Anaheim next year, but it doesn’t entirely cover the the difference and it is of course discounting the fact that Grant is a valuable player in his own right and not just a salary dump. There is clearly still more work to be done by the Ducks and Canucks if this heavily-rumored deal is to actually become reality. In the meantime, Friedman stated that Virtanen’s salary next season is a turn-off for most teams and could hinder Vancouver’s ability to trade him, especially if these talks with Anaheim fall apart.
  • One other limiting factor for the current trade market is that a pair of notable rental candidates may not be willing to waive their No-Movement Clauses. While there could be interest in Arizona Coyotes defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson, especially in a lacking rental market for blue liners, don’t expect the respected veteran to be on the move. Custance and Duhatschek write that Hjalmarsson has no interest in waiving his NMC and appears content to play out the final year of his contract in Arizona. Hjalmarsson does appear to have lost a step, scoring at a career-low rate and getting penalized at a career-high rate, so perhaps it’s in the best interest of all parties if he finishes out the year and rides off into the sunset. The more surprising note from Custance and Duhatschek on a player who also may not be willing to waive their NMC for a potential trade is Taylor Hall. Signed to a one-year deal this off-season, it was expected that Hall would again be the top trade deadline target if the Buffalo Sabres were not on a postseason trajectory. Well, the Sabres are certainly not playoff-bound, but Hall doesn’t seem to mind. Custance and Duhatschek cite sources who believe that Hall, ranked at just No. 24 on The Athletic’s trade board, is happy in Buffalo and would like to stay. There is a belief that an extension may be more likely than a trade at this point, even with the Sabres’ season in shambles and the team in need of the immense trade capital he would return.
  • Another year, another season in which the Detroit Red Wings will be sellers at the trade deadline. However, the team may be looking to move more than just rentals in the coming weeks (or in the off-season). A rival executive tells Custance and Duhatschek that GM Steve Yzerman is listening to all offers and wouldn’t be surprised if a young core forward such as Anthony Mantha or Tyler Bertuzzi were moved. Mantha, 26, is struggling this season and it remains unclear what his ceiling may be in the NHL as he has dealt with injury and inconsistency over the years. Bertuzzi, also 26, actually got off to a great start early this season, scoring at the best pace of his career albeit in nine games. He has since been sidelined by injury and without building on his hot start, there remain concerns that his development has flatlined in Detroit. If the Red Wings doubt that either player can be an effective part of the young core they are growing in the pipeline, they could be moved.

Anthony Cirelli Expected To Play Tonight Against Dallas

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Tampa Bay will have one of their top forwards back in the lineup tonight as Anthony Cirelli is expected to play against Dallas, relays Joe Smith of The Athletic (Twitter link).  The 23-year-old has missed the last six games due to an upper-body injury and was off to a big start before it occurred, notching four goals and six assists in his first dozen games.  With the Lightning carrying a minimum-sized roster, they won’t have to make a corresponding roster move to get him activated.

Meanwhile, despite leaving Thursday’s victory over Carolina early with his lower-body injury, the Lightning will also have defenseman Erik Cernak in their lineup.  He’s logging more than 18 minutes per game on their back end so far this season and his availability means that they can hold Luke Schenn down on their taxi squad, extending his waiver exemption in the process.

Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

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Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)                                          Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

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Snapshots: Rescheduling, Avalanche, Wild, Thompson

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In a season that has been disrupted by several COVID-19 outbreaks and historically-bad weather in Texas, the NHL schedule maker has been forced to constantly snip and edit things to fit in all 56 games. Today, the league announced that tomorrow’s game between the Chicago Blackhawks and Carolina Hurricanes will be postponed to another date, with the Hurricanes taking on Tampa Bay Saturday night instead. The Lightning and Hurricanes were already set to start a three-game series on Monday, meaning they’ll now face each other in four consecutive games. The Blackhawks-Hurricanes game? It doesn’t have a date yet.

Some more updates from around the league:

  • The Colorado Avalanche have almost everyone available for tomorrow’s outdoor game at Lake Tahoe, including captain Gabriel Landeskog and defenseman Samuel Girard, who were recently on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list. That doesn’t necessarily mean Girard, who was still on the list as of yesterday, will play but he is eligible to. According to Dan Rosen of NHL.com, Cale Makar is still a game-time decision as he continues to deal with an upper-body injury.
  • The Minnesota Wild also welcomed back several familiar faces to practice today, now that the team is down to just Andrew Hammond on the COVID Protocol list. Michael Russo of The Athletic reports that Dakota Mermis, Luke Johnson and Kyle Rau have all been sent to the taxi squad to make room for the returning players, though Calen Addison will currently stay on the active roster.
  • Nate Thompson has been activated from injured reserve by the Winnipeg Jets and he is expected to be in the lineup tonight when the team faces off against the Vancouver Canucks. Thompson has played just four games for the Jets this season after signing a one-year, $750K deal in October. The veteran forward is expected to take the spot of Kristian Vesalainen, who is still looking for his first NHL goal.

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