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Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

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Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)                                          Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

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Snapshots: Rescheduling, Avalanche, Wild, Thompson

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In a season that has been disrupted by several COVID-19 outbreaks and historically-bad weather in Texas, the NHL schedule maker has been forced to constantly snip and edit things to fit in all 56 games. Today, the league announced that tomorrow’s game between the Chicago Blackhawks and Carolina Hurricanes will be postponed to another date, with the Hurricanes taking on Tampa Bay Saturday night instead. The Lightning and Hurricanes were already set to start a three-game series on Monday, meaning they’ll now face each other in four consecutive games. The Blackhawks-Hurricanes game? It doesn’t have a date yet.

Some more updates from around the league:

  • The Colorado Avalanche have almost everyone available for tomorrow’s outdoor game at Lake Tahoe, including captain Gabriel Landeskog and defenseman Samuel Girard, who were recently on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list. That doesn’t necessarily mean Girard, who was still on the list as of yesterday, will play but he is eligible to. According to Dan Rosen of NHL.com, Cale Makar is still a game-time decision as he continues to deal with an upper-body injury.
  • The Minnesota Wild also welcomed back several familiar faces to practice today, now that the team is down to just Andrew Hammond on the COVID Protocol list. Michael Russo of The Athletic reports that Dakota Mermis, Luke Johnson and Kyle Rau have all been sent to the taxi squad to make room for the returning players, though Calen Addison will currently stay on the active roster.
  • Nate Thompson has been activated from injured reserve by the Winnipeg Jets and he is expected to be in the lineup tonight when the team faces off against the Vancouver Canucks. Thompson has played just four games for the Jets this season after signing a one-year, $750K deal in October. The veteran forward is expected to take the spot of Kristian Vesalainen, who is still looking for his first NHL goal.

NHL Postpones Another Dallas Stars Game

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The NHL had already postponed three Dallas Stars games due to inclement weather and has now added a fourth. Saturday’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning has been postponed as a result of “ongoing power issues” caused by the weather in the Dallas area.

The league is now working to re-schedule the four games missed, but it now means the Stars will have a pause between February 13 and 22 after already starting the season late. The team has only completed 12 games so far and is on a five-game losing streak after a hot start. The Stars will have even less practice and recovery time down the stretch as they try to fit in the final 44 games.

The Lightning meanwhile are now off from Feb 15 to 22, as they’ll next take the ice on Monday against the Carolina Hurricanes. Tampa Bay has had several postponements of their own, though not because of any internal outbreak, and have only completed 14 games. Unlike the Stars though, the Lightning have been able to battle through their odd schedule and are 10-3-1 on the year, still looking like the powerhouse that won the Stanley Cup last summer.

The list of postponed games for one reason or another is quite long already:

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COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/14/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. The league is still awaiting updated lists from the Sabres and Avalanche, but the following are the complete results from the other 29 teams:

Arizona – John Hayden
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou
Minnesota –  Nick Bonino, Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Nico Sturm, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nathan Bastian, Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Dmitry Kulikov, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Ottawa – Ryan Dzingel*
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Jakub Voracek, Travis Konecny*
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres; Calvin Pickard, Detroit Red Wings; Blake Lizotte, Los Angeles Kings; Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick, Eric Comrie, Jack Hughes, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Sami Vatanen, New Jersey Devils; Travis Sanheim, Philadelphia Flyers; Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning

It’s another strong net positive day for the CPRA. The only true addition to the list comes in the form of Flyers forward Konecny. The other addition, Dzingel, has entered the required quarantine period for any player crossing into Canada after he was dealt to Ottawa by Carolina on Saturday, but by all accounts has not qualified for any other reason. Meanwhile, the Red Wings and Lightning wipe the slate clean while the Devils take a major step forward with eight players coming off the list. Joining Dahlin back at Sabres practice today was also head coach Ralph Krueger, a welcome sight after his own bout with Coronavirus.

While the situations in Buffalo and Colorado remain undetermined at this point, the Devils appear to be on the mend and Minnesota Wild head coach Dean Evason stated that he expects some of his players to begin coming off the list soon as well. If the situation in Philadelphia can be sorted out – especially with their Lake Tahoe game coming up next weekend – the NHL could be looking at a refreshingly short CPRA by this time next week.

 

Tampa Bay’s Anthony Cirelli Out Week-To-Week With Upper-Body Injury

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The Tampa Bay Lightning announced the team will be without second-line center Anthony Cirelli for a while as he will be out week-to-week with an upper-body injury. That’s a tough blow for a team that recently lost Steven Stamkos, who was put on the COVID Protocol list Friday.

Cirelli went down during the middle of the third period Thursday against the Florida Panthers and never returned. The injury didn’t look good and head coach Jon Cooper said at the time that “it didn’t look great when he came off.”

The forward has played well for the Lightning this season with four goals and 10 points in 12 games so far this year. He had 16 goals and 44 points last season in 68 games and was fourth in voting for the Selke Trophy. He is a top penalty killer for the team, another blow that the Lightning will have to deal with.

The team for now, is expected to promote Tyler Johnson to center the second line alongside both Mathieu Joseph and Blake Coleman, while Alex Killorn is penciled onto the first line to replace Stamkos.

Of course, the team is already without Nikita Kucherov (hip) and center Mitchell Stephens (lower-body injury). Both are out indefinitely.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Tampa Bay Lightning

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We’ve now made it past the holiday season but there is still plenty to be thankful for. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, things are just getting underway. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for with the league approaching the one-quarter mark of the season.

What are the Lightning most thankful for?

Steven Stamkos picking up where he left off.  After missing the end of the regular season plus all but 2:47 of the playoffs, it was fair to wonder if the oft-injured star would be able to go back on the top line and pick up where he left off.  With seven goals and seven assists in just 11 games, he has done exactly that.  His minutes haven’t changed despite Nikita Kucherov’s season-long absence but he’s still logging over 18 minutes per game, second only to Alex Killorn among Tampa Bay forwards.  Yes, he was a late scratch last night but it wasn’t injury-related as he was added to the CPRA list today although Stamkos tweeted earlier today that the belief is it’s a false positive test.  If true, he should be back soon.  Kucherov’s absence puts more strain on Tampa’s top players and despite the question marks surrounding Stamkos heading into the season, he has certainly delivered so far.

Who are the Lightning most thankful for?

Brayden Point.  The 24-year-old has worked his way up from being a third-round pick back in 2014 to a franchise center quite quickly.  His two-way play earned him plenty of playing time early in his career and his offensive output soon followed with a 92-point season back in 2018-19.  In the early going this season, he’s producing at an even higher point per game pace with 16 points in just a dozen contests.  Along the way, his defensive play has blossomed to the point where he’s regularly garnering Selke Trophy votes.  Teams are happy when players picked in the middle of the third round make it to the NHL for a handful of games and feel even better if they can become a regular somewhere in the lineup.  Getting a cornerstone piece with a third-round selection though is something they’re ecstatic about.

What would the Lightning be even more thankful for?

No setbacks for Kucherov.  While they’re ruled him out for the entire regular season, that’s as far as they’ve gone, suggesting that they hope to have him back at some point in the playoffs when the salary cap isn’t in effect.  With how deep they’ve had to go into LTIR already, Tampa Bay basically has no wiggle room to work with in terms of trying to make any in-season moves so when it comes to trying to add so they’ll be quite thankful if Kucherov’s recovery simply goes according to plan.

What should be on the Lightning’s wish list?

With minimal LTIR room at his disposal, GM Julien BriseBois can’t do a whole lot.  They’d still love to find a taker for Tyler Johnson who’s off to a bit of a tough start this year but that contract still isn’t movable without a significant sweetener.  In terms of what they can realistically do, depth additions at or near the league minimum will be the goal.  Defensive help would be ideal but when that’s all a team can do, any minor upgrade would be worthwhile.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/12/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 protocol. The Wild are still listed as TBA, but the rest of the list is in:

Arizona – John Hayden*
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin, Taylor Hall, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen
Chicago – Ryan Carpenter
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog
Detroit – Calvin Pickard*
Edmonton – Jesse Puljujarvi
Florida – Anthony Duclair
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou, Blake Lizotte
Minnesota –  TBA
New Jersey – Nathan Bastian, Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick, Eric Comrie, Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Andreas Johnsson, Dmitry Kulikov, Janne Kuokkanen, Michael McLeod, Kyle Palmieri, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Sami Vatanen, Pavel Zacha, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Travis Sanheim, Jakub Voracek, Scott Laughton*, Oskar Lindblom*
Tampa Bay – Steven Stamkos*
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: (none)

The biggest addition here is Stamkos, who seemingly won’t be able to play in tomorrow’s game against the Panthers. Stamkos was a late scratch by the Lightning yesterday, but that was reported as injury-related. No update on his status was given this morning, but his appearance here is certainly troubling.

There are also two new names for the Flyers, including one that no hockey fan wanted to see on the CPRA list this season. Lindblom, a cancer survivor, has been added. It can’t be stressed enough that appearing here does not necessarily mean the player has tested positive for coronavirus, but everyone hoped Lindblom would avoid it entirely this season.

*denotes new addition

Anthony Peluso, Kristers Gudlevskis Sign In Slovakia

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HC Slovan Bratislava has made a pair of major additions to their roster as they gear up for the stretch run of the Slovakian Extraliga season. The former KHL club, now a powerhouse in the Tipos, lost a number of top young contributors when NHL and AHL training camps opened up, including forward Marian Studenic (NJD), defenseman Cam Lee (PIT), and goaltender Roman Durny (ANA). They also parted ways with former Buffalo Sabres netminder Andrei Makarov due to injury. Yet, the Andrej Meszaros-led team still sits in third place in the Extraliga, three points out of first with a game in hand. With a title in sight and holes to fill, Bratislava has turned to NHL veterans Anthony Peluso and Kristers Gudlevskis.

Peluso, 31, has signed a contract for the remainder of the 2020-21 season, the team announced. Peluso, who is making his first foray into European hockey, was undoubtedly hoping to find a new contract in North America. The former Winnipeg Jets regular, who has also been a member of the St. Louis Blues, Washington Capitals, and most recently the Calgary Flames, has 148 NHL games and 312 AHL games to his credit over eight pro seasons. Last year, spent with the Bakersfield Condors, was the first season in that span in which Peluso did not play on an NHL contract. Nothing short of consistent, Peluso has been a low-scoring, but physically menacing presence up front at both levels and has managed to make a career out of his grinding style. However, by joining Bratislava he may finally have some opportunity to break free of that role and show that he still has some offensive ability left in him. While the team’s press release mentions the benefits of his physical brand of hockey, they also note that he was brought in as scoring depth up front. While Peluso’s aggressive style is surely taxing, he doesn’t have as much tread on his tires as many players with his age and seasons of experience. Perhaps if he can take on a top role with Bratislava, it will open doors for an NHL contract next season.

Gudlevskis, 28, has also signed with Slovan for the remainder of the 2020-21 season after beginning the year with Villacher SV of the IceHL. Although Gudlevskis has not played in North America since 2017-18, he has been linked to an NHL comeback in every off-season since. The former Tampa Bay Lightning backup, who finished his first NHL tenure under contract with the New York Islanders, has played at a high level since moving to Europe. Posting strong numbers first in the KHL and then last season in the German DEL, Gudlevskis has shown that he is a capable keeper and at his age still has plenty of quality years left in him. However, he has never been a workhorse which may be limiting his upside in the eyes of NHL suitors. Will he get that opportunity in Bratislava? With Makarov and Durny gone, the team was forced to bring in another goaltender to pair with Tyler Parks. The long-time ECHLer has actually been stellar so far this season, but Gudlevskis’ experience may make him the go-to guy down the stretch and in the postseason. If that occurs, perhaps he will finally be able to make the jump back to North America this off-season.

Mitchell Stephens Out At Least Two Months

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Lightning center Mitchell Stephens suffered what appeared to be a significant lower-body injury last Saturday against Columbus with the expectation of an extended absence.  Today, head coach Jon Cooper revealed to reporters, including Joe Smith of The Athletic (Twitter link) that Stephens is expected to miss at least the next two months.

The 23-year-old had cracked Tampa Bay’s roster this season after splitting last year between the Lightning and AHL Syracuse and had slotted in on the fourth line where he had an assist and a faceoff win percentage of 65.4% in four games before suffering the injury.

Tampa Bay has already transferred Stephens to LTIR where he joins wingers Nikita Kucherov and Marian Gaborik plus goaltender Anders Nilsson; all three of them are out for the season.  The move allows them to add his $737.5K cap hit to their LTIR pool which is now approaching $18MM with their combined spending (regular cap spending plus LTIR) just shy of $99MM.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $98,785,916 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Callan Foote (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Foote: $500K

Championship teams often don’t have many entry-level contracts and the Tampa Bay Lightning are no different. The team does have Foote ready to step into the lineup after the team moved on from Brayden Coburn and the rookie has taken a third-pairing role for the team and likely will play sheltered minutes for most of the season even if he did already score a goal in just four games this season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Marian Gaborik ($4.88MM, UFA)
G Anders Nilsson ($2.6MM, UFA)
F Blake Coleman ($1.8MM, UFA)
G Curtis McElhinney ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Barclay Goodrow ($925K, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($800K, UFA)
F Alexander Volkov ($700K, RFA)
F Gemel Smith ($700K, UFA)
D Andreas Borgman ($700K, RFA)

The Lightning is using its cap space wisely, taking advantage of several injured players and going out and acquiring several other contracts of players on LTIR to maximize their cap space. The contracts of Gaborik and Nilsson will help the team for cap purposes, but will also expire next season for the team. The Lightning also made a couple savvy deals at the trade deadline last year when acquiring Coleman and Goodrow in separate deals. Not only did each player make big contributions during the team’s championship run, but both are still on affordable contracts for this year. The question will be whether Tampa Bay can bring one or both of them back for next season.

The team also has 37-year-old backup netminder in McElhinney. The veteran has been out for the start of the season, but it is believed he’ll be back soon and should be quite reliable. McElhinney had a .906 save percentage in 18 games and should help the team for this year. The team may opt to go in a different direction for 2021-22. Schenn is another key depth piece for the Lightning.

Two Years Remaining

F Brayden Point ($6.75MM, RFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Pat Maroon ($900K, UFA)
F Mathieu Joseph ($738K, RFA)
F Mitchell Stephens ($738K, RFA)

The team has a number of players signed long-term, but the team has a few other key players they might want to lock up. One player will be Point who has taken his game to a whole new level in the last couple of years. The 24-year-old scored 32 goals in 2017-18; 41 in 2018-19; 25 in 66 games last year and has established himself as a first-line player. He will be eligible for an extension at the end of this season and it will be interesting if Tampa Bay gives him a long-term deal then.

While Palat’s contract looked questionable a year ago when injuries were significant issues, Palat had an impressive year last year, putting up 17 goals and 41 points and was an essential top-six player for him. Maroon and Rutta both have been essential depth options for the Lightning, while Joseph and Stephens have taken significant roles on their fourth-line after splitting time between the AHL and NHL last year.

Three Years Remaining

F Anthony Cirelli ($4.8MM, RFA)
D Mikhail Sergachev ($4.8MM, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
D Erik Cernak ($2.95MM, RFA)

With three key restricted free agents during the offseason, Tampa Bay finally was able to get all three under contract, signing them to three-year bridge deals. Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak are critical players to the team and the team can get three years out of them before having to figure out the complexities of their cap situation at that point. The 23-year-old Cirelli had 16 goals and a career-high 28 assists in 68 games last season. The 22-year-old Sergachev worked his way into the team’s top-four on defense and had a career-high 10 goals last season. Cernak, 23, had a second straight solid season as a top-four defenseman, including 172 hits last year. The Lightning might be forced to move one of them down the road, but they are certainly locked in for the near future.

Killorn is the only player who will be an unrestricted free agent in three years. The 31-year-old had a breakout season last year with career highs in goals (26) and points (49).Read more

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