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Poll: Who Will Win The 2021 Stanley Cup?

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The 2020-21 NHL season has been an adventurous one and that’s putting it lightly.  From a delayed start to rapid in-season scheduling changes, there have been plenty of hiccups along the way but they managed to make it through the abbreviated regular season schedule and the first three rounds of the playoffs.  Included in the schedule this season, of course, were new divisions with the end result being that a team that’s normally in the East won the trophy that typically goes to the winner of the Western Conference.  In a year like this though, there have been stranger things than that.

In the end, there are just two teams remaining.  One is the defending Stanley Cup champion that many expected to be in the mix to win it again.  The other is a team that lost more games than it won during the regular season and virtually no one expected them to make it anywhere near this far.

Let’s start with Tampa Bay.  The defending champs added a healthy Nikita Kucherov to the mix for the playoffs after he missed the entire season due to hip surgery and he hasn’t missed a beat; his 27 points not only lead the team but lead the entire league in scoring so far.  Brayden Point just had a nine-game goal stretch snapped in Friday’s series-clinching victory over the Islanders and the end result is an attack that is averaging the second-most goals per game of any playoff team at 3.22 (Colorado was first, averaging 3.8 in their two series).  They’re also one of the stingiest defensive teams with Andrei Vasilevskiy pitching four shutouts already.

As for Montreal, they’ve won with a balanced lineup that has taken turns scoring just enough in key moments to get them over the top.  Cole Caufield – who was playing college hockey three months ago – has turned into a key cog offensively while Nick Suzuki has elevated his play in the playoffs for the second straight year as well.  Carey Price is playing some of the best hockey of his career and their penalty kill has been nothing short of outstanding.  They haven’t allowed a power play goal in 13 games – an NHL playoff record – and have killed off 30 straight opportunities (outscoring their opponents 3-0 along the way).

That theme may very well be the most interesting one of the series (even more than the goalie matchup) – Montreal’s dominant penalty kill versus Tampa Bay’s elite power play which is clicking along at a whopping 37.7%.  While there haven’t been a lot of penalties called in the playoffs, special teams have been game-changers for both teams so far.  Will that trend continue for one of them?

It’s a unique Stanley Cup matchup, one that we’re unlikely to see again since the league is going back to its usual conference format for 2021-22 and beyond.  Which team will come out victorious?  Will the Lightning make it two in a row or will the Canadiens pull off one more upset?  Make your prediction by voting in the poll below.

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Poll: Who Will Take Home The Conn Smythe Trophy?

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While four teams are still left in the running, the end of the season is near enough that Conn Smythe Trophy speculation can begin in earnest. In recent years, future Hall of Famers have put up giant playoff performances en route to championships, as Alex Ovechkin, Victor Hedman, and Sidney Crosby have all added a playoff MVP to their résumé.

But now, we turn our attention to the players grabbing headlines during the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Tampa Bay Lightning look poised to repeat as champions on the back of a fully healthy core. The Vegas Golden Knights are struggling and facing elimination, but always seem to turn it on when it matters most. The New York Islanders continue to play disciplined defensive hockey, and the Montreal Canadiens continue to ride an underdog wave.

The Lightning have many candidates, as the teams to fall to them know all too well. Nikita Kucherov has absolutely tormented opponents on the power play since returning from injury, leading the playoffs with 27 points in just 16 games. Brayden Point has also terrorized opponents on the scoresheet, tallying an incredible 13 goals in 16 games. Tampa Bay’s trifecta wouldn’t be complete without an incredible performance from goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who’s posted a .936 save percentage to pair with an 11-5 record.

Should the Islanders move on, there’s no real clear-cut candidate from their squad. It speaks as a testament to the strength of a team the Isles have assembled. Everyone’s eyes should turn immediately to Mathew Barzal, however. After a slow start, Barzal is approaching the team lead for both goals and points. Nods should also be given to Josh Bailey and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who sit tied for the team lead with 13 points in 17 games. Brock Nelson and newcomer Kyle Palmieri share the team lead in goals with seven, and could also receive votes.

For the Golden Knights, Max Pacioretty and Alex Pietrangelo should be classified as the leading candidates. Pietrangelo has been playing his best hockey as a Knight, tallying 11 points in 18 games while playing almost 25 minutes a night. Max Pacioretty leads the team in points per game, having scored 11 in 12 since returning from injury. While Marc-Andre Fleury received earlier consideration, a string of recent mediocre performances likely put him behind Pacioretty and Pietrangelo for contender status.

And for the upstart Habs, it’s veteran Carey Price who’ll undoubtedly take home the hardware should they win it all. The 33-year-old netminder has posted a .933 save percentage in 16 games, playing every game for Montreal during the playoff run. Free-agent acquisition Tyler Toffoli could receive some love too with 14 points in 16 games.

So now we ask you – who’ll be taking home the Conn Smythe Trophy at the conclusion of these playoffs? Vote below!

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Expansion Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, Tampa Bay made a side deal with Vegas to force them into taking defenseman Jason Garrison.  The price they paid was fairly steep in Nikita Gusev plus second and fourth-round draft picks but it allowed them to retain two young blueliners in Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek.  With their salary cap situation, it seems quite likely that the Lightning will be making a trade with Seattle to get them to pick a specific player.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Alex Barre-Boulet, Anthony Cirelli, Ross Colton, Nikita Kucherov (NMC), Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Boris Katchouk, Alex Killorn, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, Taylor Raddysh, Otto Somppi, Steven Stamkos (NMC), Mitchell Stephens, Daniel Walcott

Defense:
Erik Cernak, Sean Day, Callan Foote, Victor Hedman (NMC), Dominik Masin, Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta, Mikhail Sergachev

Goalies:
Spencer Martin, Andrei Vasilevskiy

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Andreas Borgman, Fredrik Claesson, Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, David Savard, Luke Schenn, Gemel Smith

Notable Exemptions

G Hugo Alnefelt, F Ryan Lohin, F Jimmy Huntington, G Amir Miftakhov, F Antoine Morand

Key Decisions

There are some problems that are good to have and having too many good players is certainly one of them.  Without a side deal in place, it means that Tampa Bay is going to lose a good one no matter which route they go.

Let’s look at their defense first.  Hedman and Sergachev are sure-fire bets to be protected but that’s about it.  McDonagh is a key cog on their back end and logged nearly 22 minutes a game during the regular season and that has gone up slightly in the playoffs.  He’s a big part of the puzzle.  However, he’s also 32 years old and signed through 2026 at a $6.75MM AAV.  With that term and price tag, could he safely be left unprotected?

That would leave at least one opening for a younger blueliner although there are a couple of players to consider for that potential last spot in a 7/3/1 scheme.  Cernak took another step forward this season, spending a lot of it inside Tampa’s top four.  He’s signed on a team-friendly bridge deal for two more years at $2.95MM and making him available would be very enticing for the Kraken.

Then there’s Foote.  He only made his NHL debut this season in what was a very limited role but he’s also not that far removed from being a first-round pick as he was selected 14th overall back in 2017.  He’ll need waivers beginning next year so he should be a full-timer on the roster at what should be a price tag of under $1MM on a short-term contract.  Given their cap situation, it would be hard to part with a cheap roster player.

That cap situation will certainly dictate their approach with their forwards as well.  Kucherov and Stamkos are automatic protectees while Point and Cirelli don’t have to be protected but are safe bets to be.

Normally, finishing fourth on the team in scoring would make a player be a safe bet to be protected but that’s not the case with Gourde.  The small center played at a 25-goal, 52-point pace this season which is quite good but he’s on the books for four more years at $5.167MM.  That’s not a bad return on the contract but knowing that they need to free up some money, he could be left unprotected.

Palat finished second in scoring behind only Point and even that isn’t enough to make him a lock to be protected.  His price tag is certainly reasonable at $5.3MM and he only has one year left so it’s not a long-term drag on Tampa Bay’s cap.  But if they want to protect four defensemen, Palat could very well be squeezed out.

Killorn is another long-time Lightning veteran that could feel the squeeze.  He played at a 40-plus-point pace again this season and would have gotten there had it not been for the pandemic-shortened campaign which would have been the fourth straight year of getting to that mark.  At $4.45MM, he’s not overly expensive either and with only two years left, it’s certainly a manageable deal.  But again, they’re facing a situation where they simply have to move money out.

Before looking into some of the other forward candidates, let’s get to the obvious veteran on this list in Johnson.  Tampa Bay clearly tried to move him last fall and when they couldn’t find a taker, they put him on waivers but had no luck there either.  It’s not that he’s a bad player by any stretch, he’s just too expensive for the role he provides.  He’s a capable middle-six center and if he was a free agent tomorrow, there would be plenty of interest.  But the 30-year-old isn’t a free agent, he has three years left at a $5MM cap hit.  The expectation is that the Lightning will try to make a deal to entice Seattle to take that contract off their hands but it will have to be a sizable premium paid as there will be quality players to pick from.

Knowing they will need some cost-efficient forwards as well, there could also be an inclination to try to protect one or more of them in a 7/3/1 scheme.  Barre-Boulet held his own in his first taste of NHL action this season after being a consistently high scorer in the AHL.  Joseph had a dozen goals this season while primarily playing on the fourth line while Stephens was a regular for more than half of last year.  Even Katchouk, who doesn’t have any NHL experience, showed a lot with AHL Syracuse this season and should be in the mix for a roster spot next year.  They all have some NHL upside and are all affordable which is a combination that they need to try to hold on to.  Having said that, it would be hard to see those players crack their protected list.

Projected Protection List

F Anthony Cirelli
F Nikita Kucherov (NMC)
F Brayden Point
F Steven Stamkos (NMC)

D Erik Cernak
D Callan Foote
D Victor Hedman (NMC)
D Mikhail Sergachev

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (6): Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat
Defensemen (2): Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta

In terms of who’s available from this list, Palat would be the most tempting choice and if they can’t find a side deal to force them to take Johnson (or another similarly-priced player), they could be at risk of losing their second-leading scorer.  This was put together with the assumption that they’ll want to keep Foote, who will almost certainly play a bigger role next season, in the fold but if they are okay with losing him, they would be safer flipping to the 7/3/1 scheme with Palat, Killorn, and Gourde seeming like the safest bets to be protected.  Either way, with so many talented players, they’re going to lose someone of note so expect GM Julien BriseBois to be active in trying to make a side deal control which one joins Seattle.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay’s LTIR Usage Investigated By NHL, No Wrongdoing Found

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As could have reasonably been expected, the Tampa Bay Lightning have faced some criticism of their handling of the salary cap this season, especially as they race toward what could very likely be back-to-back Stanley Cup Championships. The Lightning employed the Long-Term Injured Reserve to keep forward Nikita Kucherov off the pay roll for the entire 2020-21 regular season, allowing them to re-sign other players and add at the trade deadline by using the entirety of his $9.5MM cap hit as added space. Then, when the postseason began and the salary cap was no longer a factor, the 2018-19 Hart Trophy winner was ready to return, looking fresh and looking no worse for wear. At best, the timing of it all was extremely lucky. At worst, it was salary cap circumvention.

Defending his team against these allegations, Tampa GM Julien BriseBois tells Sportsnet’s Josh Beneteau that the NHL did in fact investigate the club’s LTIR usage and found that they had not broken any rules.  The league had issued a warning earlier this season, with an unusually high number of teams using the LTIR, that they would be monitoring those transactions and would investigate. This was the case with Kucherov, but nothing about the Bolts’ actual transactions raised any alarms. After all, the LTIR, for all intents and purposes, is a legal form of circumvention. If other clubs are upset with how it is being used, it is an area that will need to be addressed in the next CBA negotiation in 2026.

However, the vast majority of complaints were not how the LTIR itself is structured or was used by Tampa, but rather the suspicious timing of Kucherov’s rehab lasting through the entire regular season but not into any of the postseason. BriseBois noted that this too had to be proven to the league. “We had to be able to justify the surgery, the rehab time, (and) the return to play clearance,” he told Beneteau. “Sometimes the stars align for you,” he added, qualifying what others believed to be a designed manipulation of the LTIR system. If the NHL was convinced that the timing was just right, then other teams and fans alike should be as well. BriseBois is right though – the team certainly got lucky and that luck might just lead them to another title.

2021 Norris Trophy Finalists Announced

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The NHL continues to release their award finalists, this time announcing the three nominees for the Norris Trophy. The award is given out to the top defenseman “who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.” Last year’s winner was Roman Josi of the Nashville Predators.

This year’s finalists are Adam Fox of the New York Rangers, Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche, and Victor Hedman of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Get used to seeing Fox’s name here, as the 23-year-old defenseman has turned into one of the most dynamic two-way players in the entire league. A third-round pick by the Calgary Flames, Fox was originally traded to the Carolina Hurricanes and then to the Rangers when there were doubts he would sign out of college. New York is thanking their lucky stars for that decision after letting him loose and watching Fox score 47 points in 55 games while logging nearly 25 minutes a night. Perhaps the most impressive part is the improvement defensively he showed this season, routinely breaking up a cycle and quickly getting the puck out of his zone. Fox now has 89 points in 125 NHL games and seems like he’ll be at the top of the Rangers depth chart for a decade.

You can’t talk about young defensive phenoms without mentioning Makar though, who has been even better through his first two seasons. The 22-year-old has 94 points in 101 games and is coming off a Calder Trophy campaign. Though his point total was slightly lower than Fox, that was only really because Makar missed time with an injury. His 44 points in 44 games made him the only qualified defenseman with a point-per-game ratio this season (apologies, Brogan Rafferty). From the moment Makar stepped on the ice for the Colorado Avalanche in the 2019 playoffs he has been a difference-maker—he even scored the game-winning goal in that first match—and a Norris is bound to come before long.

It might not come this season though, as there is an old hand standing in the way of the two young guns. Hedman has been a finalist for five straight years now, winning the award in 2018 as the league’s best. He took home the Conn Smythe last year when the Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup and is generally regarded as the best defenseman in the league. Sure, that may be changing with these young players improving every day and Hedman’s defensive game showing a little inconsistency, but the 30-year-old is still a force every time he touches the ice. In a season where he also dealt with injuries, Hedman totaled 45 points in 54 games and averaged the seventh-most ice time in the league at 25:03.

2021 Vezina Finalists Announced

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Over the next week, the NHL will be releasing the finalists for all of the major regular season awards. First up is the Vezina Trophy, which is given to the best goaltender in the NHL and is voted on by the league’s general managers.

The finalists this season are Marc-Andre Fleury of the Vegas Golden Knights, Philipp Grubauer of the Colorado Avalanche, and Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Fleury, 36, has been written off several times in his long career but seems to just get better with age. He posted the best regular season of his career in 2020-21, recording a .928 save percentage while splitting the net with Robin Lehner. The tandem already won the William M. Jennings Trophy for allowing the fewest goals in the league, and Fleury personally ranked among the top of almost every category. Despite winning nearly 500 games in the NHL, Fleury has never been a Vezina finalist before.

Grubauer, 29, is also a finalist for the first time. The Avalanche netminder posted a .922 save percentage in 40 appearances, leading the league in shutouts with seven. His record was impeccable, losing only nine games in regulation all season. Though Grubauer has put up numbers like this before, he has never carried a heavier workload. His career to this point may be easy to overlook, but among goaltenders with at least 200 starts, Grubauer’s .920 save percentage would put him fifth all-time.

The two new finalists will have to slay a giant if they want the award though, as Vasilevskiy is back again. The Lightning goaltender has been a Vezina finalist for four consecutive seasons, winning the award in 2019. For the fourth year in a row, he had led the NHL in wins, this time taking home 31 of his 42 appearances. His .925 save percentage matched his career-high (the number that won him the Vezina) and his goals-against average dropped even further. Even though he’s only 26, it seems clear that Vasilevskiy is destined to go down as one of the best goaltenders the NHL has ever seen.

Detroit Red Wings Sign Wyatt Newpower

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The Detroit Red Wings have snapped up a prospect from under a division rival’s nose, signing Wyatt Newpower to a two-year entry-level contract. Newpower spent this season playing with the Clevland Monsters, AHL affiliate of the Columbus Blue Jackets on a minor league contract. The Blue Jackets of course were only division mates of the Red Wings for this season, but it still is interesting to see the young defenseman jump to another organization.

Newpower, 23, was an undrafted free agent signing out of the University of Connecticut, where he spent four seasons prior to this year. In his senior year the 6’4″ defenseman posted 22 points, a strong offensive performance that carried over to his first season of professional hockey. In 24 games for the Monsters, Newpower scored three goals and 10 points, finishing first on the team at +10.

It’s not like this is a dramatic signing that brings in an impact player for the Red Wings, but it’s clear that GM Steve Yzerman is willing to look just about anywhere to add talent and depth to the organization. At worst, Newpower can continue to develop and be a strong contributor for the Grand Rapids Griffins.

Hurricanes’ Nino Niederreiter Could Miss Entire Tampa Bay Series

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7:30 PM: Forget about just missing the series-opener.  Following the head, head coach Rod Brind’Amour told reporters including Cory Lavalette of the North State Journal that Niederreiter is “very doubtful” to return in this series.

3:46 PM: The Carolina Hurricanes had a surprise lineup change just before Game 1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning Sunday as Nino Niederreiter is expected to sit out.  According to Luke DeCock of the News & Observer, the forward was injured during practice Saturday and was considered questionable for the game. Former Lightning Cedric Paquette is expected to step into the lineup to replace Niederreiter.

The forward was benched for the remaining 9:49 of regulation and overtime Thursday in Game 6 against Nashville along with Jesper Fast and Steven Lorentz, but that was considered bench shortening. Of course, Niederreiter hasn’t made a major impact so far in the playoffs with just one goal and no assists in six games even though he tallied one of his best regular seasons in years with 20 goals and 34 points.

Paquette, who played with the Stanley Cup champion Lightning last season, was traded twice during the regular season before finding himself with Carolina where he has been nursing an injury, but was ready as an extra, if needed. Paquette, however, could have extra incentive to play hard against his former team.

The Lightning will also be without defenseman David Savard who is out with an upper-body injury. He will be replaced in the lineup with Luke Schenn.

NHL Issues Two More Fines

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The NHL has fined two more players for incidents from yesterday’s action, deciding not to hand out suspensions. Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Ryan McDonagh has been fined $5,000, the maximum allowable under the CBA, for his cross-check on Florida Panthers forward Mason Marchment. His teammate Pat Maroon has been fined $3,879,31, the maximum allowable for his salary level, for unsportsmanlike conduct at the end of last night’s game.

In McDonagh’s case, the incident occurred partway through the first period when the game was 1-0 for the Lightning. The two players had been battling all shift, but as Marchment approached McDonagh near the benches, the Tampa Bay defenseman raised his stick and delivered a cross-check to the head. McDonagh was given a two-minute penalty for roughing on the play and Marchment did not suffer a major injury.

For Maroon, there were just under 15 seconds left in the game and the score was out of reach, but the Tampa Bay forward engaged with Florida forward Noel Acciari. Maroon took just 12 faceoffs this season, but lined up as a center for the center ice draw and pushed forward with his stick extended. The event resulted in a scrum between several players, penalties to both teams, and a misconduct for Maroon.

Central Notes: Kucherov, Sergachev, Slavin, Knight

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The Tampa Bay Lightning may have taken a 3-1 lead against the Florida Panthers Saturday, but at a cost as Nikita Kucherov and Mikhail Sergachev were both injured during the game. While there have been no updates on either players’ status for Game 5, The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) writes that early indications are that neither injury is considered serious.

Kucherov, who left Saturday’s game after being slashed in the knee by Florida’s Anthony Duclair, also suffered a head-to-head injury when he was shoved into goaltender Chris Driedger. Smith writes that the knee injury isn’t considered serious. Sergachev, however, who left the game with a head injury after a shoulder-to-shoulder hit against the boards from Patric Hornqvist. The belief is that he will be fine, although there is no word if either player would be made available for Game 5.

Smith also notes that there is nothing expected from the Department of Player Safety on anything that happened in Game 4.

  • It looks like the Carolina Hurricanes will be without their top defenseman again Sunday as head coach Rod Brind’Amour said the team will have no lineup changes including no Jaccob Slavin, according to Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer. Slavin who has missed Games 2 & 3 so far due to a lower-body injury, is still considered to be day-to-day, but Brind’Amour stated that he is not ruling out the blueliner for the rest of the series. Slavin led the team during the regular season in ATOI with 22:58 and was second on the team in plus/minus with a +22.
  • Florida Panthers head coach Joel Quenneville said that he will not name a goaltender for Game 5 until Monday, but rookie goaltender Spencer Knight is a possibility to start, according to George Richards of FloridaHockeyNow. While that may not sound like much, Knight was in the starter’s net for practice Monday, while Sergei Bobrovsky and Driedger were sharing the other net. Neither Bobrovsky and Driedger have impressed so far in four playoff games. Each netminder has made three appearances with Driedger being the better of the two, boasting a 3.70 GAA and a .871 save percentage, while Bobrovsky carried a 5.33 GAA and a .841 save percentage. Knight, who fared well in four regular season appearances, could get an opportunity to try to spark a team that’s close to elimination.

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