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Trade Deadline Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning

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The trade deadline looms and is now just a few days away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have become the class of the NHL in the last decade. With two Stanley Cup championships and a third trip to the finals in the previous three years, the Lightning are poised to make another deep run. But first, they will likely have to battle the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round.

The Maple Leafs have made some big adds in the past few weeks, which prompted Tampa Bay to make a splash this past Sunday with the expensive addition of Tanner Jeannot. While Tampa Bay may have spent big on the rugged forward, GM Julien BriseBois boasted that he had no issues dealing future draft capital for a team firmly entrenched in win-now mode.

After the Maple Leafs made another addition yesterday, could BriseBois feel the need to make another move?

Record

37-18-4, 3rd in the Atlantic

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

Deadline cap space $769,967, 0/3 retention slots used, 49/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: TB 6th, TB 7th

2024: CHI 4th, TB 5th, TB 6th, TB 7th

Trade Chips

Tampa Bay has very little in the way of draft capital in the next three entry drafts. They have already dealt their next three first-round picks and don’t have a second-round pick until 2025. Should they stand pat, the Lightning wouldn’t pick until the sixth round this season.

Tampa Bay also don’t have much flexibility for another trade deadline addition, as they have less than $1MM in cap space available for the deadline. This would mean any potential deal would need a third party to facilitate the move or be a dollar-for-dollar trade.

On the prospects side, Tampa has emptied the cupboard during their three runs to the finals, but it is not without good young players. Despite dealing picks seemingly every year, BriseBois and company have found value in the later draft rounds. Nick Perbix is a former sixth-round pick in 2017 who has established himself on Tampa’s backend, and Ross Colton was a fourth-round pick who scored a Stanley Cup-winning goal just three years ago.

Team Needs

BriseBois has stated publicly that he would like his team to be harder to play against; this was an area he addressed with the Jeannot addition. It could be a development to keep an eye on as Tampa is staring down two tough series in Toronto and potentially the Boston Bruins. BriseBois may want to add further toughness to his lineup like an Austin Watson-type player. Watson is a pending UFA in Ottawa and could be the type of addition BriseBois would look at.

The Lightning would also do well to add to their defense core. The back end is the only glaring weakness on the club, and is something BriseBois would do well to address. His ideal target would likely be a right-shot defenseman, as Zach Bogosian currently occupies the top right-side spot next to Victor Hedman. Bogosian is a battle-tested warrior but probably isn’t equipped for those hard minutes at this stage of his career. The cost to acquire this type of player is likely out of Tampa’s price range, but never count out the creativity of Julien BriseBois.

Tampa Bay Lightning Acquire Tanner Jeannot

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have made a huge splash, acquiring another inexpensive, versatile forward to try and help them reach the Stanley Cup. Nashville Predators forward Tanner Jeannot has been sent to the Lightning in exchange for a massive trade package. The Predators will receive:

  • Cal Foote
  • 2025 1st round pick (top-10 protected)
  • 2024 2nd round pick
  • 2023 3rd round pick
  • 2023 4th round pick
  • 2023 5th round pick

Jeannot, 25, comes to Tampa Bay as he finishes up a two-year contract that carries an $800K average annual value. That nearly league-minimum salary is exactly why the Lightning had to pay so much, and continues their trend of acquiring players with team control. Jeannot will be a restricted free agent this summer and though he has a strong case to land a hefty raise through arbitration, will help improve the Lightning for more than just the next few months.

A breakout star last season with the Predators, the physical forward scored 24 goals and 41 points as a rookie, while racking up 318 hits. The hitting remains this year but the offensive production has dried up, with just five goals so far for Jeannot in 2022-23.

It will be interesting to see if that goal-scoring touch returns in Tampa Bay, as the draft haul they gave up makes a lot more sense if they are acquiring the player from last year. The Lightning have continued to fill out their lineup with gritty, in-your-face players that can still contribute, and if Jeannot returns to his past form he may be the best among them.

Still, it is a massive price to pay for a player who has struggled this year. The Lightning now don’t have a pick in 2023 until the sixth round, and won’t select in the first round until 2026 at the earliest, assuming no other moves. “Win now” is the name of the game with this group, but it will be an impressive experiment to see just how long they can keep the window open.

The Lightning scouting and development team has been excellent at finding diamonds in the rough, but even they will be hard-pressed to refill the cupboard with just a handful of late-round picks in play.

For the Predators, a sell-off like this on the day they announced David Poile’s upcoming retirement is quite something. Jeannot was an undrafted, homegrown prospect that the program can be proud of, especially now that he’s turned into a massive return. If they can pull off a few more deals like this, new GM Barry Trotz will be set up for success.

Lightning Open to Trading Cal Foote

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  • One right-shot defenceman that is available is Cal Foote. Emily Kaplan of ESPN reports the Tampa Bay Lightning are open to moving the 24 year-old defender. The Lightning have already traded their first and second-round picks in 2023 and first-round pick in 2024 so they are low on assets at this deadline. Their general manager Julien BriseBois has stickhandled around sticky cap situations before and will have to do the same this season to add before Friday’s deadline.

Erik Cernak Suspended Two Games

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4:00 pm: NHL Player Safety has suspended Cernak for two games as a result of his actions, as announced Friday afternoon. They cited his previous suspension, as well as Cernak’s deliberate shift of his elbow to target Okposo, as reasoning behind the suspension.

9:41 am: The NHL Department of Player Safety announced today that Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak will have a hearing for elbowing Buffalo Sabres captain Kyle Okposo during last night’s game.

The incident occurred late in the third period (video link) when Cernak delivered a high elbow to Okposo’s head, spinning him around and knocking him to the ice as he attempted to gain the offensive zone. Okposo was slow to get up after the collision but rejoined the action. Officials did not assess a penalty to Cernak on the play. Buffalo would win the game a few moments later on an Ilya Lyubushkin shorthanded breakaway in overtime, defeating the Lightning 6-5.

Cernak has been suspended once before in his career, also for elbowing. NHL Player Safety handed out a two-game ban to Cernak in November 2019 after he elbowed Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, causing a concussion. With the incidents occurring more than 18 months apart, however, Cernak isn’t considered a repeat offender.

Cernak, 24, has seen his defensive metrics dip this season after multiple seasons of elite shutdown play. Offensively, he’s contributed a goal and 10 assists in 51 games, spending most of his time paired with Ian Cole. He’s locked into an eight-year, $41.6MM extension that kicks in next season.

Okposo, 33, is leading by example as the Sabres prime themselves to enter the playoff conversation for the first time in a decade. Largely in a fourth-line, shutdown role, Okposo has added seven goals and 14 assists in 49 games this season as he nears the 1,000-game plateau.

Tampa Bay Lightning Assign Gemel Smith To Henderson Silver Knights

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  • In a puzzling move, the Tampa Bay Lightning today loaned forward Gemel Smith to the Henderson Silver Knights, the AHL affiliate of the Vegas Golden Knights. Tampa’s affiliate, the Syracuse Crunch, announced the news this afternoon. Smith hasn’t played with the Lightning this season, but has lit up the minors with 37 points in 35 games with Syracuse thus far. It’s unclear what, if any, compensation Syracuse might receive for losing their third-leading scorer to a different organization.

Latest On Luke Schenn

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One of the names that have been floating around in trade speculation for weeks now is Vancouver Canucks defenseman Luke Schenn. The tough, experienced defender would be a good fit on several clubs, in part due to his extremely reasonable cap hit of $850K.

Today, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports that things are “getting close” on Schenn, and notes that the Calgary Flames and Boston Bruins are still in the mix to acquire the veteran. The Tampa Bay Lightning, meanwhile, who have been linked most often to Schenn thanks to their history together, are out, according to Pagnotta.

If the reported price tag of a third-round (or more) is correct, you can see why the Lightning might decide to pull out of the running. The club doesn’t have much ammunition to make trades this year after sending multiple first-round picks away, and probably doesn’t want to use their highest selection this year on a player that would see limited minutes in the postseason.

Of course, things could certainly change. Depending on how long these negotiations go and how many other pieces are moved in the meantime, new contenders might emerge for Schenn’s services. Even if he isn’t going to make a huge impact, getting a two-time Stanley Cup champion for $850K is certainly an intriguing option for many contenders.

Tampa Bay Lightning Linked To Tyler Bertuzzi

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Marek reported that the Red Wings are expected to set a high price for Bertuzzi, who scored 62 points in 68 games last season and plays the sort of rugged, physical game many teams covet. Marek called the price “something substantial” in his report. Teams such as the Dallas Stars, who are reportedly seeking a player to play next to Tyler Seguin on a more regular basis, Edmonton Oilers, and Tampa Bay Lightning were all linked by Marek as teams holding varying degrees of interest in acquiring the talented Red Wings forward.

Nick Paul Listed As Day-To-Day

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  • Lightning winger Nick Paul was a late scratch before tonight’s game against Colorado with the team announcing (Twitter link) that he’s listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury. The 27-year-old has been a capable secondary scorer in his first season with the team, notching 16 goals with 10 assists in 50 games.  Notably, with less than $720K in LTIR room per CapFriendly, Tampa Bay does not have enough space to call up a replacement for him on the roster.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $89,574,031 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Nick Perbix (one year, $842.5K)

Potential Bonuses
Perbix: $82.5K

Perbix has already signed an extension so we’ll cover that later on.  His bonuses are games-played based and typically require 80 games to max out.  However, there are generally a few tiers for bonuses at this price point so he should receive some of this amount.  With Tampa Bay into LTIR, whatever Perbix earns will come off their cap next season.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Rudolfs Balcers ($750K, RFA)
F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($3MM, UFA)
F Ross Colton ($1.25MM, RFA)
G Brian Elliott ($900K, UFA)
D Callan Foote ($850K, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($1MM, UFA)

Killorn’s future with Tampa Bay has seemingly been in question for a while now with the team having to cut from its veteran core each season.  Those questions will only intensify now as it’s hard to see how they can afford to keep him.  The 33-year-old has a chance at beating his career high in points (59, set last season) which would at least help him hit the open market on a high note.  He should be able to get a small raise on a medium-term agreement.  Namestnikov also appears to be unlikely to return as he hasn’t fit in during his second stint with the team.  He’ll also be hard-pressed to match his current AAV unless he can turn things around down the stretch.  Perry and Bellemare are low-cost veterans that Tampa Bay will either want to retain or bring in someone else to replace them at likely a slightly lower cap charge if possible.  If they look elsewhere, they’d be in line for similar contracts to what they’re on now.

On the RFA side up front, Colton will be in line for a sizable raise.  He potted 22 goals last season and has a chance at 20 this year.  Notably, he’ll also have salary arbitration eligibility which could push his next contract past the $3MM range.  He’s an important part of their bottom six but they might have to get creative to keep him around.  Balcers was picked up off waivers earlier this season and he tested the UFA market last summer after being bought out.  Another minimum-priced contract should be coming his way which could keep him around for another year in Tampa Bay.

On the back end, Cole is arguably having a better year than he did last season with Carolina, logging his highest ice time since 2018-19 in the process.  Having played on one-year deals for the last two seasons now, he might have a shot at a multi-year agreement at a price tag that’s close to this one.  Foote still hasn’t been able to quite lock down a full-time spot in the lineup which will hurt his case even with arbitration eligibility.  He should be able to push past the $1MM mark but his next deal shouldn’t be much more than that, even if they decide to tack on a second season.

Elliott has put up numbers that are hovering near the league average this year which is a good return on one of the cheapest goalie contracts in the league.  But he turns 38 in April and is going to be going year-to-year from here on out.  On merit, he’s worthy of at least a small raise but if he wants to stay with the Lightning, it’ll have to be at this price point at most.  With how their roster is structured, Tampa Bay simply can’t afford a more expensive backup netminder.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Zach Bogosian ($850K, UFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($762.5K, UFA)
F Brandon Hagel ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Pat Maroon ($1MM, UFA)
D Philippe Myers ($2.55MM in 2022-23, $1.4MM in 2023-24, UFA)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM, UFA)

Stamkos isn’t really slowing down and has provided a lot of value on this contract as he continues to be a focal point of Tampa Bay’s attack.  Accordingly, he has positioned himself for a raise on his next deal if he wants to go after top dollar.  In that case, he could land an eight-digit AAV, especially with 2024 pegged as the summer for the Upper Limit to jump up by a fair-sized amount.  But if he wants to stick around with the Lightning, this feels like a situation where he could accept a longer-term contract to help try to bring the cap hit down somewhat relative to market value.  Such a deal would take him closer to age 40 which isn’t necessarily ideal but it would keep the price tag closer to where it is now which would allow them to keep the core around as long as possible.

The Lightning paid a sizable price to land Hagel thanks to what has quickly turned into one of the bigger bargains in the league.  If he continues to score around his current pace, he could make a case to quadruple his current price tag.  Even with a higher cap at that time, it might be tough for them to keep both Hagel and Stamkos around.  As for Maroon, he’s a fourth liner at this point and will be 36 when he hits the open market.  That will likely keep him around this price tag two years from now.

Let’s get Seabrook out of the way quickly.  You might have forgotten that he’s here now instead of in Chicago but his situation hasn’t changed as his playing career has come to an end.  He will remain on LTIR until this deal expires which means that Tampa Bay is going to have regular cap space for a few more years.

Myers came over during the summer in the Ryan McDonagh trade and while many expected him to be bought out to give Tampa Bay a cap credit, he was instead extended at this lower price.  Their cap situation has Myers in the minors right now but if he can lock down a regular spot next season, he could be able to land a deal a bit closer to what he’s getting this year.  Bogosian has had a limited role when healthy this season and is more of a depth defender at this point.  A deal around what he’s getting now is where his market should fall.  Fleury, meanwhile, has had a very limited role and until he can establish himself as a regular, his value is going to remain at or near the minimum salary.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Victor Hedman ($7.875MM, UFA)
D Nick Perbix ($1.125MM from 2023-24 through 2024-25, UFA)

Hedman has been Tampa Bay’s top defenseman for the better part of the last decade and hasn’t shown much in the way of signs of slowing down.  At a time when top rearguards are landing more than $10MM when they’re eligible for free agency, he has been a nice bargain for the Lightning and should continue to be for the rest of the deal.  When it’s up, his playing time should be starting to dip which could keep his AAV close to this one, especially if he re-signs.  Perbix has been a pleasant surprise this season which earned him this low-cost extension not too long ago.  It’s a low-risk proposition as if Myers or someone else passes Perbix on the depth chart, the deal can be buried in the minors without any lingering cap charge.

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