- Earlier this week, veteran winger Austin Watson agreed to a tryout deal with Tampa Bay but it was a bit surprising that it came to that point. Senators play-by-play voice Dean Brown recently reported (Twitter link) that his former team in Ottawa offered him a one-year contract earlier in free agency but that the 31-year-old was hoping to land a three-year agreement. Clearly, that didn’t come to fruition and resulted in very limited interest on the open market. That said, Watson should have a good chance to earn a spot with the Lightning with several key checkers leaving the organization this summer. However, with their salary cap situation, his deal, should he land one, is almost certain to be at or close to the minimum salary of $775K.
Lightning Rumors
Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Austin Watson To PTO
After signing defenseman Darren Raddysh to an extension earlier today, the Tampa Bay Lightning are not quite done figuring out their roster. In an announcement by CapFriendly, the team has signed forward Austin Watson to a professional tryout in this year’s training camp.
It is no guarantee that Watson will make the team out of camp, but with a need for cheap forward talent that can be relied upon in the team’s bottom six, Watson appears as a good bet to crack the opening night roster. Last season, finishing out a three-year, $4.5MM contract with the Ottawa Senators, Watson would score nine goals and two assists in 75 games played.
Never relied upon for his offensive prowess, Watson excels in throwing hits, delivering over 450 during his time with the Senators alone. With both Ross Colton and Pat Maroon having moved on to other organizations this summer, Watson could help a significant hole left by those two in the checking department.
Outside of his physicality, Watson will provide the Lightning with an opportunity to stabilize their penalty kill. He regularly received ice time on the PK for Ottawa last season, aiding the team to an 80.07% kill percentage, good for 14th in the league last season. For context, Tampa Bay finished just behind the Senators at 15th overall, holding a 79.69% success rate on the PK.
While numerous amounts of PTO do not become guaranteed deals, in this case, it almost seems like a foregone conclusion that Watson will suit up for the Lightning next season. The need is there based both upon his inevitable league minimum contract and the talents he will bring on the ice for the organization.
Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Darren Raddysh To Extension
The Tampa Bay Lightning have inked defenseman Darren Raddysh to a two-year, one-way contract extension, as announced today by the team. The contract, which carries an AAV of $975K, will take effect starting in 2024-25. PuckPedia later added that Raddysh will earn a $1.114MM salary in 2024-25 and an $836K salary in 2025-26.
Raddysh, 27, broke into the Lightning lineup in the back nine of last season after a career year in the minors. Named to the AHL’s First All-Star Team for 2022-23, Raddysh led all Syracuse Crunch defensemen with 38 assists and 51 points in 50 games. It earned him a call-up to the Lightning in early March, and he recorded a goal and two assists for three points in 17 games before appearing in all six postseason games for the Lightning in their first-round loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs. With Erik Cernak sidelined for most of the series with an upper-body injury after he took an elbow to the head from then-Toronto forward Michael Bunting in Game 1, Raddysh stepped into a top-four role alongside Mikhail Sergachev. Although he posted solid possession metrics in the regular season, the Sergachev-Raddysh unit conceded the most quality opportunities of Tampa’s three main pairings in the playoffs, per MoneyPuck.
An undrafted free agent, Raddysh also spent time with the Chicago Blackhawks and New York Rangers organizations before landing in Tampa in 2021 as a free agent. The right-shot defender from Caledon, Ontario, has demonstrated solid two-way instincts in the minors, which appeared to translate to the big leagues in his slightly extended NHL look last season.
The contract’s one-way nature emphasizes Tampa’s belief that Raddysh can be a full-time NHL contributor moving forward, although ideally, they won’t rely on him for heavy minutes unless his game takes another large step. He’ll compete with Haydn Fleury, Zach Bogosian and 2023 free agency addition Calvin de Haan for ice time – a group head coach Jon Cooper will likely rotate throughout the season.
Raddysh will be an unrestricted free agent when his new contract expires in 2026. This season, he’s still on the two-year, two-way contract extension he signed in 2022, which carries a cap hit of $762.5K, an AHL salary of $250K, and a minimum guaranteed salary of $350K, although again, it’s likely he sticks on the NHL roster this season (he would require waivers to be returned to Syracuse).
Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Brandon Hagel To Eight-Year Extension
11:50 AM: CapFriendly has provided the financial breakdown of Hagel’s extension:
2024-25: $1.82MM + $7.18M SB
2025-26: $2.5MM + $6.5M SB
2026-27: $6.75MM
2027-28: $5.45MM
2028-29: $4.45MM + $1M SB
2029-30: $4.45MM + $1M SB
2030-31: $4.45MM + $1M SB
2031-32: $4.45MM + $1M SB
8:30 AM: The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed forward Brandon Hagel to an eight-year contract extension, carrying an AAV of $6.5MM. The deal will start in the 2024-25 season, at the expiry of Hagel’s current $1.5MM AAV deal. Hagel, who will turn 25 on Sunday, was set to become a restricted free agent next summer.
This contract is a significant one for both Hagel and the Lightning franchise. For Hagel, he’s committing himself to Tampa Bay for what is likely to be the prime of his playing career. The deal will stretch from his age-26 season (2024-25) through 2031-32, Hagel’s age-33 season.
For Tampa Bay, the team has now invested a significant portion of their available cap space for the rest of the decade into Hagel, betting that his strong form from 2022-23 will not only be maintained into future seasons, but built upon.
Hagel was originally a late-round draft choice by the Buffalo Sabres at the 2016 draft but was not tendered an entry-level contract by the team. He signed with the Chicago Blackhawks at the conclusion of his WHL career and made an instant impact with the team’s AHL affiliate in 2019-20, leading the team in goals with 19.
In 2020-21 Hagel became a full-time NHLer, scoring at a decent clip, 24 points in 52 games. In August 2021, the Blackhawks made the prudent choice to sign Hagel to a three-year, $1.5MM AAV contract extension, a deal that paid immediate dividends.
Hagel’s scoring numbers in the NHL began to look quite a bit more like what one would expect from a former WHL star, and in 55 games with the team, he scored 21 goals and 37 points. Heading into a rebuild, the Blackhawks chose to cash in on Hagel’s breakout as well as the immense surplus value he provided on a $1.5MM AAV deal and traded him to the Lightning, a cap-strapped team specifically targeting players who could outperform their cap hit by multiple degrees of magnitude.
Hagel had a slow start in Tampa, scoring just seven points in 22 regular-season games and six points in the team’s run to the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. But this past season, Hagel’s first full campaign in Tampa, he showed exactly why the Lightning surrendered two first-round picks and two young players in order to acquire him. He scored 30 goals and 64 points in 81 games, delivering consistent offensive quality in a top-six role.
He averaged 18:38 time-on-ice per game, a career-high, which ranked him fourth among Lightning forwards. Beyond just delivering offensive consistency and top-line production, Hagel’s two-way game also took a step forward. He averaged just a shade under two minutes per game on Tampa’s penalty kill, and even got a fifth-place Selke Trophy vote for the NHL’s best defensive forward.
While this contract certainly carries some risk — Hagel has only been a true top-line forward in the NHL for one, maybe two sesons — it’s easy to see why Tampa has gambled on Hagel as a key party of their future. He’s been a healthy, productive, generally consistent all-around player who still has room to improve. The team isn’t buying any seasons in Hagel’s mid-to-late thirties with this deal, minimizing the room for this deal to age poorly in its later years.
While $6.5MM places Hagel in the financial company of players such as Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kreider, Sam Reinhardt, Claude Giroux, and William Nylander, forwards who have all reached higher offensive heights than Hagel, the cap hit should look more appropriate as the league’s upper limit rises in the near future.
Additionally, seeing as the Lightning likely believe Hagel still has room to grow offensively, there is always the possibility that Hagel makes this $6.5MM price tag look like a steal down the line. If he can get even more regular time on the powerplay next to stars like Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, Hagel could potentially score 40 goals or 70 points in the future. But even if that doesn’t come to pass, as the cap rises this $6.5MM cap hit is an eminently reasonable price to pay for the prime years of a player like Hagel.
Adding this contract extension to the extensions signed by other ascending Lightning players, such as Erik Cernak, Mikhail Sergachev, and Anthony Cirelli, it’s clear that Tampa Bay is working towards building a core group of players for the rest of the decade and beyond.
The team is intent on continuing to compete even as franchise icons such as Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman advance deeper into their thirties, and now with all of these extensions signed Tampa Bay has made sure that if those veterans ever get their names etched into the Stanley Cup for a third time, it will be alongside new core players, such as Hagel.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
2020 Draft Pick Declan McDonnell Commits To Saint Mary's University
- Also joining Saint Mary’s is Tampa Bay Lightning 2020 seventh-round selection Declan McDonnell, who also no longer has a rights agreement with an NHL team due to the same circumstances as Roger. The 21-year-old winger scored 21 goals and 21 assists for 42 points in 63 games with the OHL’s Kitchener Rangers in his draft year but saw his production zigzag over the following campaigns. Last season, he recorded just 13 goals in 63 games for the Barrie Colts to finish off his junior career.
August Free Agency Update: Atlantic Division
As even most mid-tier free agents are now off the market, it’s a good time to look at how each team has fared on the free agent market this offseason. We’re publishing a list of one-way signings (i.e., likelier to start the season on the NHL roster) by team, per division, to keep you updated on NHL player movement since the new league year began on July 1.
Asterisked players denote a restricted free agent. Double-asterisked players denote the contract starts in the 2024-25 season. First up is the Atlantic Division:
Boston Bruins
*G Jeremy Swayman (one year, $3.475MM cap hit)
*F Trent Frederic (two years, $2.3MM cap hit)
F Morgan Geekie (two years, $2MM cap hit)
D Kevin Shattenkirk (one year, $1.05MM cap hit)
F James van Riemsdyk (one year, $1MM cap hit)
F Milan Lucic (one year, 35+ contract, $1MM cap hit)
F Patrick Brown (two years, $800K cap hit)
*D Ian Mitchell (one year, $775K cap hit)
F Jesper Boqvist (one year, $775K cap hit)
Buffalo Sabres
D Connor Clifton (three years, $3.333MM cap hit)
D Erik Johnson (one year, 35+ contract, $3.25MM cap hit)
F Tyson Jost (one year, $2MM cap hit)
Detroit Red Wings
*F Alex DeBrincat (four years, $7.875MM cap hit)
F J.T. Compher (five years, $5.1MM cap hit)
D Shayne Gostisbehere (one year, $4.125MM cap hit)
D Justin Holl (three years, $3.4MM cap hit)
F Klim Kostin (two years, $2MM cap hit)
F Daniel Sprong (one year, $2MM cap hit)
G James Reimer (one year, 35+ contract, $1.5MM cap hit)
F Christian Fischer (one year, $1.125MM cap hit)
D Gustav Lindström (one year, $950K cap hit)
G Alex Lyon (two years, $900K cap hit)
Florida Panthers
F Evan Rodrigues (four years, $3MM cap hit)
**F Eetu Luostarinen (three years, $3MM cap hit)
D Niko Mikkola (three years, $2.5MM cap hit)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (one year, $2.25MM cap hit)
G Anthony Stolarz (one year, $1.1MM cap hit)
D Mike Reilly (one year, $1MM cap hit)
D Dmitry Kulikov (one year, $1MM cap hit)
F Kevin Stenlund (one year, $1MM cap hit)
*F Grigori Denisenko (two years, $775K cap hit)
Montreal Canadiens
*F Alex Newhook (four years, $2.9MM cap hit)
*F Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (two years, $1.1MM cap hit)
Ottawa Senators
F Vladimir Tarasenko (one year, $5MM cap hit)
G Joonas Korpisalo (five years, $4MM cap hit)
*D Erik Brännström (one year, $2MM cap hit)
D Travis Hamonic (two years, $1.1MM cap hit)
*D Jacob Bernard-Docker (two years, $805K cap hit)
F Zack MacEwen (three years, $775K cap hit)
Tampa Bay Lightning
*F Tanner Jeannot (two years, $2.665MM cap hit)
F Conor Sheary (three years, $2MM cap hit)
F Josh Archibald (two years, $800K cap hit)
F Luke Glendening (two years, $800K cap hit)
G Jonas Johansson (two years, $775K cap hit)
D Calvin de Haan (one year, $775K cap hit)
Toronto Maple Leafs
F Tyler Bertuzzi (one year, $5.5MM cap hit)
D John Klingberg (one year, $4.15MM cap hit)
*G Ilya Samsonov (one year, $3.55MM cap hit)
F Max Domi (one year, $3MM cap hit)
F Ryan Reaves (three years, 35+ contract, $1.35MM cap hit)
G Martin Jones (one year, $875K cap hit)
F Dylan Gambrell (one year, $775K cap hit)
Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly
2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Second Overall Pick
Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.
We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?
Earlier in the week, we kicked off the 2009 Take Two series by polling PHR readers on their pick for first overall with the benefit of hindsight. Defenseman Victor Hedman jumped up to claim the number-one spot by a comparatively slim margin, capturing 53% of the vote. In past years, the choice has been rather clear, with PHR voters settling on the draft class’ best player by scores of 70% or more.
Now with Hedman off the board to the New York Islanders at first overall, John Tavares remains on the board, with the Tampa Bay Lightning picking at number two. At the time of the draft, there was no question about whether Tavares would fall. He was one of the few players granted exceptional status into the OHL as a 15-year-old and, given he was only five days away from being eligible for the 2008 draft, Tavares already had four full seasons of junior hockey under his belt with two 100-plus point seasons to show for it.
While the circumstances of Tavares’ departure in free agency from the Islanders for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 have soured the fanbase’s opinion on his time with the team, he’s inarguably one of the most talented players in team history and was the cornerstone behind their first-round playoff win in 2016, ending a decades-long streak without a series victory. The team’s captain for five seasons ended up with 621 points in 669 games as an Islander and ranks fifth in team history in Hockey Reference’s point shares system.
Among his 2009 peers, he currently sits as the all-time leader in goals, assists and points and is the only one with more than 1,000 career NHL games under his belt. Despite that, Tavares hasn’t taken home any major awards like Hedman – although Tavares was a Hart Trophy finalist in 2013 and 2015 at just 22 and 24 years old. If he had fallen to Tampa for whatever reason, may they have won more Stanley Cups with this core with Tavares in the fold along with Steven Stamkos?
That’s what we’re asking you today, PHR readers. Will Tavares fall yet another spot in your hindsight-influenced 2009 draft ranking, or will the Lightning select a second franchise center to complement Stamkos, who they selected first overall just one year prior? Vote in the poll below:
Click here to vote if the poll doesn’t display.
List Of Players Expected To Start 2023-24 On LTIR
We’re at the point in the summer where most major signings are complete, meaning only a handful of free agents left on the market could still command over the maximum buriable threshold of $1.15MM per year on their next contract. That means financial pictures are mostly set league-wide, and general managers can now focus more on the arduous task of salary cap management.
For many teams nowadays, long-term injured reserve (LTIR) is an important tool in helping teams keep below the salary cap’s Upper Limit, which is set at $83.5MM for 2023-24. It’s not as straightforward as it seems at first glance, though. Placing a player on LTIR does not eliminate their cap hit from the team’s books until they’re activated again. Instead, a team only gains cap relief if they exceed the Upper Limit, and the specific amount of relief received depends on the team’s cap situation on the day they place a player on LTIR. A more detailed explanation of how LTIR works can be found on CapFriendly.
All LTIR situations are not created equal. To be eligible for LTIR, a player must miss at least ten games or 24 days of action. However, they don’t need to be placed on LTIR if they’re projected to miss more than that amount of time. Oftentimes, a team operating far below the Upper Limit that won’t need any relief will simply keep the player on standard injured reserve, especially if they’re relying on an injured player’s cap hit to stay above the Lower Limit (set at $61.7MM next season).
With that said, here is a list of players who are projected to meet the injury requirements for LTIR to start 2023-24:
Atlantic Division
Buffalo Sabres – Jack Quinn
This offseason was a tough break for the young Quinn, who sustained an Achilles injury during offseason training in June and is expected to be out of the lineup through Thanksgiving. While eligible, he’s unlikely to actually be placed on LTIR. He’s still on his entry-level contract and carries a marginal cap hit of $863K, making a move extremely inconsequential to the Sabres, who CapFriendly projects with over $6MM in space.
Florida Panthers – Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour
The Panthers are set to begin the season without the services of their top two defensemen, thanks to shoulder injuries sustained and exacerbated during their run to the 2023 Stanley Cup Final. Combined, the players carry a rather significant $11MM cap hit, which should give the Panthers some season-opening flexibility. Ekblad’s expected to miss more time than Montour, but neither is expected to miss the whole season – both should be back in the fold by the time the calendar flips to 2024. CapFriendly currently projects the Panthers dipping into LTIR relief by $1.175MM to start the season.
Montreal Canadiens – Carey Price
The team’s legendary netminder isn’t expected to play again after a knee injury, and he hasn’t suited up since the end of the 2021-22 campaign. He’ll likely spend the last three seasons of his contract (carrying a $10.5MM cap hit) on LTIR. As we covered earlier in the week, Montreal is in a bit of a no man’s land with Price’s contract. They’ll likely either look to shed salary to get under the Upper Limit entirely (which they currently sit around $5MM over) or add money to maximize’s Price’s LTIR relief, which they could then weaponize in-season to be a cap broker for trades.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Brent Seabrook
Like Price, Seabrook will be on LTIR for the remainder of his $6.875MM cap hit contract, which expires next summer. Acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks after his injury made it clear he wouldn’t play again, Seabrook has provided additional options for cap flexibility for the Lightning over the last two seasons. Tampa is expected to use close to all of Seabrook’s potential relief to stay compliant throughout the season.
Toronto Maple Leafs – Jake Muzzin, Matt Murray
While not confirmed, Muzzin’s playing future remains in serious doubt after sustaining a cervical spine fracture at the beginning of last season. No recent update has been issued on his recovery, and he’s expected to miss the entire 2023-24 campaign and will spend the final year of his contract on LTIR. Murray’s situation is shrouded in much more mystery, however. The team announced last month he’d begin next season on LTIR, but no specific details of his injury were confirmed, and no timetable was issued for a potential return. Murray missed significant time last season with a concussion and an adductor injury.
Metropolitan Division
Philadelphia Flyers – Ryan Ellis
Forwards Cam Atkinson and Sean Couturier are expected to return to the lineup after missing all of last season with injuries, but the same can’t be said for Ryan Ellis. President of hockey operations Keith Jones said a few days ago that Ellis is unlikely to “be able to continue his playing career because of a torn psoas muscle in his back.” Ellis played just four games for the Flyers after they acquired him from the Nashville Predators in 2021 before sustaining the career-ending injury.
Washington Capitals – Max Pacioretty
Pacioretty’s timeline for a return after sustaining back-to-back Achilles injuries isn’t clear, but he likely won’t be available to the team to start the season and should meet the requirements for LTIR. The financial circumstances surrounding the potential relief will be tricky to navigate given the performance bonuses included in his contract, however. Pacioretty should be joining the Capitals after signing a one-year deal last month, sometime in November or December if everything goes well in his recovery.
Central Division
Arizona Coyotes – Jakub Voracek, Shea Weber, Bryan Little
All three are players acquired by the Coyotes for the express consideration of helping them stay above the cap floor – which they are now far above after being big players on the free-agent market this summer. Nonetheless, all three are done with their NHL careers due to various injuries and will remain members of the Coyotes organization by contract only.
Colorado Avalanche – Gabriel Landeskog
Colorado will be without their captain for a second straight season after the winger underwent a cartilage transplant on his right knee this summer. Landeskog hasn’t played since hoisting the Stanley Cup in 2022, a playoff run during which he played through a knee injury. He’s signed through 2029, and there’s still the potential he plays again, although it won’t be anytime soon.
Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks – Isac Lundeström
Lundeström projects to be on the shelf through next January after sustaining an Achilles injury during offseason training in Sweden. Given the Ducks are far from the Upper Limit, and Lundeström carries just a $1.8MM cap hit, Anaheim could keep him on standard injured reserve for the duration of his absence.
Vegas Golden Knights – Robin Lehner
All has been quiet on Lehner’s health after he missed all of last season. The All-Star-caliber netminder had double hip surgery last summer, keeping him out for the entire 2022-23 campaign. He was not around the team at all during their run to the 2023 Stanley Cup, and the team has issued no updates on his recovery since undergoing the surgery last summer. Without any indication that he’s close to a return, Lehner closes out our list.
Lightning Add Jacob Wheeler To AHL Coaching Staff
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have added a new face to their pro coaching staff, appointing 26-year-old Jacob Wheeler as the video coach of the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch today, per a team release. He replaces the outgoing Joe Palmer, who had served as a dual goalie coach/video coach since 2019-20 but was part of a complete staff overhaul in Syracuse this offseason. Wheeler joins the staff of new Crunch head coach Joël Bouchard, now on his third AHL organization after head coaching stints with the Laval Rocket and San Diego Gulls. Wheeler had spent the last two seasons as the video coordinator for the ECHL’s Jacksonville Icemen.
Previewing The Top 2024 Unrestricted Free Agents
This year’s free agent class was underwhelming. There’s no disrespect intended here to players like Alex Killorn, Dmitry Orlov and Vladimir Tarasenko. However, we’ve grown accustomed to at least one true star being available on the market every year – at least a top-ten player at their position. But a flurry of extensions took some potential game-breakers, such as Boston Bruins sniper David Pastrnak off the market, limiting the amount of star power available.
With the salary cap finally expected to jump significantly by about $4MM next offseason, some NHL general managers will undoubtedly look to spend that extra cash on a shiny new toy on the UFA market. As 2023 is mainly in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at some of the best players slated to hit the open market next summer, whether or not they may extend, and offer some way-too-early contract projections in the process:
F Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) – The unquestionable crown jewel of the 2024 free agent class might also be one of the least likely to hit the market. Matthews is more than just a superstar – he’s a season removed from back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophies, he’s led the league in even-strength goals in four out of his seven NHL seasons, and he’s coming off a “down season” in which he still managed 40 goals despite a career-low 12.2 shooting percentage. Toronto is still plugging away at an extension with Matthews, a process that was surely elongated by a change at the GM position earlier this offseason. While multiple reports suggested it likely won’t be a long-term deal to keep Matthews in Toronto, seeing his name available for anyone to pursue next July would be shocking.
Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Five years, $62MM ($12.4MM AAV)
F William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) – Another star in Canada’s largest city is also headed for the open market next season. Nylander is coming off a strong season with a career-high 40 goals and 87 points, but multiple reports indicate contract talks are currently at an impasse between the two sides. The Swedish winger reportedly wants an eight-figure cap hit on his next deal, one he’s increasingly unlikely to receive after sub-$10MM extensions for players like the Carolina Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho. He will be in his prime at 28 years old next summer, though, and he currently holds the undisputed title of the best pure winger slated to hit the market. Given the slated cap increase, Nylander may be able to garner the money he desires elsewhere if Toronto isn’t willing to fork over another eight-figure deal.
Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $70MM ($10MM AAV)
F Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Including Stamkos on this list seems like more of a formality than anything else. The captain of back-to-back Stanley Cup championship teams in Tampa and likely to go down as the greatest player in franchise history when he retires, it’s nearly impossible to imagine him wearing another jersey. Barring an unforeseen breakdown in communication, Stamkos will be re-upping with the Bolts on what could potentially be the final contract of his NHL career as he enters his mid-30s. After yet another point-per-game season, Stamkos will undoubtedly be sticking around in Tampa as long as they’ll have him, likely at a slight discount to help them replenish their depth reserves.
Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Four years, $31.5MM ($7.875MM AAV)
F Jake Guentzel (Pittsburgh Penguins) – The Penguins have exhibited a strong tendency toward keeping the band together in recent seasons, but it’s a trend that may change under the front-office leadership of Kyle Dubas. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Penguins won’t field a competitive offer to keep Guentzel in the fold. He’s been one of the most successful and consistent linemates to Sidney Crosby in the entire illustrious career of the future Hall-of-Famer, he’s a two-time 40-goal scorer, and he’s an incredibly clutch playoff performer. While contract extension talks haven’t begun between the two parties yet, reporting indicates the Penguins’ core shares the public’s view of Guentzel and would like to keep him around.
Extension Likelihood: Likely
Projected Contract: Eight years, $75MM ($9.375MM AAV)
F Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets) – The first of two Jets on this list hasn’t been in trade rumors quite as much as his netminding counterpart, but there’s still a very good chance Scheifele is sporting a different jersey by the 2024 trade deadline. Speculation has immediately run rampant about Scheifele as a stop-gap fix down the middle for the Boston Bruins, who are without their number-one center after captain Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement last week. There are plenty of question marks about how highly Scheifele is actually valued around the league, given his significant defensive lapses, but he’s consistently produced the offense you’d want out of a number-one center. Despite scoring a career-high 42 goals last season, 2022-23 was actually Scheifele’s first campaign falling short of a point per game since 2015-16, when he was just 22 years old.
Extension Likelihood: Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $66MM ($9.4MM AAV)
D Devon Toews (Colorado Avalanche) – Toews may be the most unheralded defenseman in the league thanks to his partner, Cale Makar. On almost any other team, Toews would be a legitimate number-one defender with very few holes in his game. Little has been made of his impending free agency, but he’ll be due a major raise on his current bargain-bin $4.1MM cap hit. Combined with the potential loss of captain Gabriel Landeskog’s LTIR relief should he return to play in 2024-25, it could be incredibly difficult for Colorado to retain him even with the cap going up. Not only does Toews consistently rank among having some of the best defensive impacts in the league, but he’s also coming off back-to-back 50-point campaigns and has finished top-15 in Norris voting during each of his three seasons in Colorado.
Extension Likelihood: 50/50
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61MM ($8.7MM AAV)
D Brandon Montour (Florida Panthers) – A pair of prominent Panthers defenders are up for UFA status next season in Montour and Gustav Forsling, but Montour’s the one we’ll cover more in-depth here after he led the Panthers’ defense in playoff scoring with eight goals and 13 points in 21 games despite playing through a shoulder injury which will cost him the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign. His stock has never been higher after exploding for 73 points in 80 regular season games, along with a career-high 107 penalty minutes. While he’s still a rather one-dimensional player and likely to be somewhat of a liability defensively, he’s finally shown legitimate top-pair ability at 29 years old. Committing any term to Montour as a UFA may be a case of buyer beware, however, as his track record is far from consistent.
Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Four years, $26MM ($6.5MM AAV)
G Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets) – It seemed very unlikely a few months ago that Hellebuyck would be on this list today. While there’s no chance he’ll be signing an extension with the Jets, a trade followed by an extension with a new team seemed rather likely this offseason. However, some outlandish financial demands from Hellebuyck’s camp dried up trade interest, and there hasn’t been a lot of movement on that front lately. While small, the possibility that Hellebuyck lands on the open market next season seems to be increasing without a trade or extension any closer to fruition.
Extension Likelihood: Very Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61.25MM ($8.75MM AAV)
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.