Mitch Marner Deal Holding Up Other Restricted Free Agents
If the Toronto Maple Leafs’ negotiations with Mitch Marner last as long as they did with William Nylander last season, many other NHL teams are going to be in trouble. According to The Athletic’s Joe Smith, many other agents are waiting to see how Marner’s deal shakes out before finalizing terms for their own top restricted free agent forwards. A surprising number of prominent RFA forwards remain unsigned and could stay that way until the Marner deal sets the market.
Writing specifically about the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team facing their own RFA conundrum with breakout center Brayden Point, Smith states that the team expects Point to be ready for camp in September, but agent Gerry Johansson is content with the “slow process”. The agents for Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser, Patrik Laine, and Travis Konecny likely feel the same way and are apparently waiting to see where Marner, the best of the group, ends up before moving forward. In fact, Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal also added today that things are very quiet around Boeser’s camp and he acknowledges that the process has been slow for most big-name RFA’s.
So what will be the first domino to fall? Will Marner really sign first and set the stage for everyone else? Or will another unsigned star finally budge and give the market a much-needed comparable? While Marner, who recorded 94 points in 82 games last year, is the most established player and considered the top RFA who would be the ceiling for the market, he was actually quite comparable to Rantanen and Point last season. However, the rest of the group could benefit from any of the group signing a contract to use as a point of comparison. At this point in the summer, the odds are high that at least one of these negotiations will last into the regular season. But if the reports are true that the market waits on Marner, those teams with top unsigned RFA forwards better hope that Toronto and their star winger are closer than it seems.
Andrei Vasilevskiy Signs Long-Term Extension
The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed another one of their key players to a long-term extension, inking Andrei Vasilevskiy to an eight-year contract that will carry a $9.5MM average annual value. The deal kicks in for the 2020-21 season. GM Julien BriseBois released a short statement on the signing:
The Lightning are very proud to extend Andrei for another eight years today. Since joining the organization Andrei has shown unmatched work ethic and professionalism both on and off the ice. We look forward to him continuing his career in Tampa Bay for the foreseeable future.
Vasilevskiy will become the third-highest paid goaltender in the league when the contract kicks in, behind only Carey Price ($10.5MM AAV) and Sergei Bobrovsky ($10MM AAV). The deal buys out seven years of unrestricted free agency and will include trade protection and a huge amount of signing bonuses. CapFriendly has the full breakdown of the contract:
- 2020-21: $3.5MM salary + $8.5MM signing bonus
- 2021-22: $1.0MM salary + $10.0MM signing bonus (NMC)
- 2022-23: $4.5MM salary + $6.5MM signing bonus (NMC)
- 2023-24: $4.0MM salary + $5.0MM signing bonus (NMC)
- 2024-25: $5.5MM salary + $4.5MM signing bonus (NMC)
- 2025-26: $5.0MM salary + $4.0MM signing bonus (10-team trade list)
- 2026-27: $5.0MM salary + $3.0MM signing bonus (10-team trade list)
- 2027-28: $3.0MM salary + $3.0MM signing bonus (10-team trade list)
With this contract, the 25-year old goaltender will tie Nikita Kucherov for the biggest cap hit on the Lightning and is just another sign the team is willing to commit to their core. Tampa Bay now has seven players signed through at least 2023-24, making their salary cap situation complicated moving forward. Brayden Point is expected to take up another huge chunk whenever he is re-signed, leaving very little room for other players like Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak and Mikhail Sergachev who are all scheduled to become restricted free agents next summer. With Vasilevskiy under contract, the Lightning project to have more than $67MM committed to just 13 players in 2020-21.
That said, complication is more than acceptable for a player of Vasilevskiy’s talent. Selected 19th overall in 2012, the Russian goaltender has quickly ascended to the very elite tier of netminders in the league, leading the NHL in wins the past two seasons and taking home his first Vezina Trophy in 2019. He posted a .925 save percentage in 53 games and an incredible 39-10-4 record. His athleticism is nearly unparalleled at the position while his fundamentals are strong enough to keep him consistent on a nightly basis. Unfortunately, all that talent couldn’t save the Lightning from a first round sweep as he posted just an .856 save percentage in the four-game loss to Columbus.
That loss won’t change the fact that Tampa Bay believes they have one of the best goaltenders in the world, and he’ll now be paid as one. Vasilevskiy carries just a $3.5MM cap hit this season, allowing the team to bring in Curtis McElhinney to compete with Louis Domingue for the backup role and spend elsewhere on the roster. That all ends next season, when the Lightning will need to trim the fat elsewhere on the roster. Where exactly they will find that fat is unclear.
The team already has Ryan Callahan heading to long-term injured reserve this season, but his contract is completely off the books next summer. Players like Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn will all likely hear their names in speculation at some point, though each holds trade protection. This deal and the other expensive extensions that have taken place will put a lot of pressure on the 2019-20 squad to compete for a Stanley Cup, because things are only going to get more complicated moving forward. At some point if the Lightning keep drafting and developing this exceptional talent, there will be cap casualties elsewhere. That only signifies an excellent roster, but is also very painful if some playoff success doesn’t follow.
Atlantic Notes: Panthers, Schmaltz, Point
The Florida Panthers are making a big push to become a winning team now and hope that after the acquisition of goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky as well as Brett Connolly and Noel Acciari will be enough to get there. One reason the team wants to win now is that the Panthers have only reached the playoffs five times in their 25 year history and its time for that to change.
However, The Athletic’s George Richards (subscription required) writes that another reason that the team has pushed up its intensity towards fielding the best team possible is that it still has many core players who are under reasonable contracts, but that could change in the next three years. Aleksander Barkov has just three years remaining at a team-friendly $5.9MM and then will likely see his salary skyrocket. Vincent Trocheck also has three years remaining at a reasonable $4.75MM and Jonathan Huberdeau is currently the longest tenured forward at four years at $5.9MM. Already next season, the franchise will have to make some costly decisions on Mike Hoffman, who has one year remaining at $5.19MM, and Evgenii Dadonov makes $4MM for one more year. Both are expected to score big raises, especially if they can keep their offense going this season.
With the potential of eventually losing a number of their top forwards, the Panthers are making it clear that they want to win with this group now rather than hope their young prospects can quickly replace those that will eventually leave.
- After acquiring defenseman Jordan Schmaltz Thursday from the St. Louis Blues, it looks like the Toronto Maple Leafs’ main reasoning might have been to get a solid replacement for recently traded Calle Rosen. The Maple Leafs had high hopes for Rosen, but because he was left-handed, there was concern how he might fit into the lineup. The Toronto Sun’s Steve Simmons writes that the team liked Schmaltz because he was right-handed and was an impressive skater, something that Andreas Borgman isn’t. While he doesn’t necessarily have Rosen’s upside, Schmaltz at least should be able to provide better depth for the team on that side.
- Diana Nearhos of the Tampa Bay Times writes that Tampa Bay Lightning fans that are constantly worried about the fact that restricted free agent Brayden Point hasn’t signed a contract yet, need to stop worrying. The scribe writes that there is plenty of cap space, up to $11.4MM, once they place Ryan Callahan on LTIR and the fact that Montreal showed interest in having Point sign an offer sheet even before they signed Sebastian Aho to one and he refused is a sign that he has every intention of staying in Tampa Bay.
One GM Believes Brayden Point Will Be The Next Top RFA To Re-Sign
The top end of the RFA market is really making an impact this offseason as it appears most of the players are waiting to see what others get. But eventually, someone will have to be the next to sign. ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski cites one GM who believes that Tampa Bay center Brayden Point will be the next one to put pen to paper on a new deal. It was reported earlier this summer that Montreal had approached him about an offer sheet but they were quickly rebuffed so the threat of him considering an offer sheet elsewhere may not be so high. However, the cap situation for the Lightning still isn’t the greatest, even following the trade of J.T. Miller to Vancouver and the fact that Ryan Callahan will be on LTIR next season. Tampa Bay has forced some young players to go the bridge route in the past and it’s something they may have to do here but if so, this is something that could wind up dragging out for a while yet.
Tampa Bay, Dallas Among Teams Facing Contract Limit Crunch
The Tampa Bay Lightning are not only up against the NHL’s $81.5MM salary cap upper limit, but also the league’s 50-contract limit. They’re not alone either; in addition to the Bolts, the Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, Ottawa Senators, and Anaheim Ducks each have 48 players already signed to contracts next season as well. Six other teams have 46 or 47 players signed. The closer a club gets to 50, the less roster flexibility they have during the season. When it comes to making trades, claiming players on waivers, or signing college or junior free agents, teams without room can be hamstrung and forced to either pass up on possibilities or make desperation moves to free up roster space. It’s not an ideal situation and could force more than a few teams to make a move or two as the summer wears on.
Tampa Bay is in the worst position of all, as not only do they have just two contract slots available, but they also have two NHL regulars who remain unsigned restricted free agents in need of contracts – Brayden Point and Adam Erne. It’s hard to imagine that the Lightning, who also need to open up considerable cap space, don’t move out a player or two to help clear things up in both regards. One other possible saving grace could be sending 2019 first-round pick Nolan Foote or fellow prospect forward Gabriel Fortier back to their respective junior teams. Even if under contract, 18- and 19-year-old junior players who are still slide-eligible do not count against the 50-contract limit once returned to the junior level. If Foote and/or Fortier don’t crack the Tampa lineup, they would additionally clear up some room. A surefire contender, who also could use some affordable support where they can get it, the Bolts will definitely be a player on the trade and waiver markets this upcoming season, assuming they have the means to do so.
Dallas is in a similarly difficult situation. With just two contract slots available, the Stars need to re-sign (or do something with) defenseman Julius Honka. If the team signs Honka or trades him for another signed player or prospect, they are down to just one open space. Fortunately, unsigned RFA Niklas Hansson is expected to spend the season in Sweden and will not need a contract to become Dallas’ 50th man. Junior forwards Ty Dellandrea and Riley Damiani would also no longer count against the contract limit if sent back to their respective teams, although many in Dallas would like to see Dellandrea push for a spot on the roster.
L.A. has just one unsigned RFA remaining, promising forward Adrian Kempe, so they aren’t in danger to hit 50 at this time. The Kings also have a number of young players under contract who will battle for roster spots, which could force Akil Thomas back to juniors for one more year, removing his contract from the mix. L.A. has been a highly active team on the college free agent market of late and will want some contract room later in the season for potential additions.
Similarly, Ottawa has just Colin White left to sign, so barring further additions are not at risk of hitting 50 contracts. However, the Senators are just narrowly over the league’s salary cap floor, which could prompt them to add another contract so that they don’t have to risk falling below the floor during the year due to a trade. Right now, only Jonathan Gruden is a candidate to go back to junior and remove his contract from limit calculations, so if Ottawa does make another addition, they’ll likely look to make a subtraction or two as well to remain flexible in-season.
The final team at 48 contracts is the Ducks. Fortunately for them, Anaheim has no one left to sign and by all accounts are not looking to make any other moves this off-season. They should be safe, but may look to move a contract just in case the opportunities present themselves to add on during the season.
One team who isn’t at all worried about the contract limit: the New Jersey Devils. New Jersey currently has just 39 players under contract, third least behind Carolina and Winnipeg, but also have just two unsigned RFA’s in need of contracts while the Hurricanes and Jets each have a handful. The Devils project to enter the season with the fewest players under contract, as well the smallest payroll other than Ottawa. That could change though, as the team continues to be included in rumors pertaining to many of the top unsigned UFA’s and top trade targets this summer.
Snapshots: Gusev, Dotchin, Prospects
The Vegas Golden Knights still haven’t come to an agreement with Nikita Gusev, but there is coming a time when they’ll need to make a final decision on the restricted free agent. Gusev’s Russian agent Yuriy Nikolayev spoke to Championat and explained (via Google translate) that there is a “certain deadline” when they will turn to negotiate with SKA St. Petersburg, who currently own his rights in the KHL.
Gusev signed his entry-level contract with the Golden Knights just a few months ago and burned through it without actually ever playing a game for the team. The team issued him a qualifying offer as an RFA, but haven’t yet been able to come to an agreement on a new contract. The only bit of leverage Gusev really has in this position is a possible return to the KHL, as he was not eligible for arbitration and cannot sign an offer sheet.
- According to Joe Smith of The Athletic, the Tampa Bay Lightning have reached a settlement with Jake Dotchin on the grievance he filed after seeing his contract terminated last fall. Dotchin allegedly showed up to training camp out of shape, causing the Lightning to place him on unconditional waivers and cut ties with him. He eventually signed with the Anaheim Ducks and played 20 games in the NHL last season, but had filed a grievance through the NHLPA for his lost salary. Smith reports that the two sides settled without having to go to an arbitration, which potentially could have set a precedent for other cases in the future. The details have not been disclosed.
- Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (subscription required) has released his top-50 drafted prospect list, and recent first overall selection Jack Hughes comes in on top. The list includes 11 others from the 2019 draft, but is also led by names like Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar who made their NHL debuts at the end of last season. Notably the Colorado Avalanche and New York Rangers each have two players in the top-10, giving them plenty of hope for the future—and the present, if Makar and Kaapo Kakko have anything to say about it.
Evening Notes: NHL Preseason Odds, Lites, Cholowski
Oddsmakers have released preliminary odds for the 2019-20 NHL season with the Tampa Bay Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights at the lead as the two teams most likely to reach the Stanley Cup Finals next season, released by SuperbookUSA. The Tampa Bay Lightning are projected to lead the league again in points with 108.5, while Vegas is expected to lead the Western Conference with 103.5 points.
Here are the rest of the projections:
Anaheim Ducks – 80.5
Arizona Coyotes – 91.5
Boston Bruins – 100.5
Buffalo Sabres – 83.5
Calgary Flames – 96.5
Carolina Hurricanes – 94.5
Chicago Blackhawks – 90.5
Colorado Avalanche – 100.5
Columbus Blue Jackets – 82.5
Dallas Stars – 96.5
Detroit Red Wings – 76.5
Edmonton Oilers – 85.5
Florida Panthers – 96.5
Los Angeles Kings – 74.5
Minnesota Wild – 84.5
Montreal Canadiens – 89.5
Nashville Predators – 97.5
New Jersey Devils – 88.5
New York Islanders – 94.5
New York Rangers – 88.5
Ottawa Senators – 68.5
Philadelphia Flyers – 90.5
Pittsburgh Penguins – 95.5
San Jose Sharks – 94.5
St. Louis Blues – 96.5
Tampa Bay Lightning – 108.5
Toronto Maple Leafs – 102.5
Vancouver Canucks – 88.5
Vegas Golden Knights – 103.5
Washington Capitals – 97.5
Winnipeg Jets – 96.5
- SportsDay’s Mathew DeFranks writes that despite comments made last season by Dallas Stars CEO Jim Lites about Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, there was little consequence to that this offseason as the Stars were quite successful this offseason as they managed to sign Joe Pavelski, Corey Perry and Andrej Sekera. The scribe writes that in the end, free agents looked at three things when it comes to Dallas. First, they are Stanley Cup contenders. Second, they had plenty of cap space and finally, Dallas is a destination that many players prefer to live in, especially in the winter.
- The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James writes that Detroit Red Wings defenseman Dennis Cholowski spoke at a hockey youth camp recently and stated that he is focused on fixing his defensive liabilities in hopes of returning to the Red Wings’ lineup next season. Cholowski looked like a franchise-changing defenseman early on but was eventually demoted to the Grand Rapids Griffins due to his lack of success on the defensive side of his game. The 21-year-old scored seven goals and 16 points in 52 games last season but also had a team-worst plus-minus at minus-20. “Having to go down to Grand Rapids was a disappointment a little bit; I guess it would be for anybody,” Cholowski said. “In order to play you have to be good defensively and then that generates the offense. So I’m working on the D-zone and hopefully I take those things I learned into camp this year.”
Atlantic Notes: Backes, Montembeault, Domingue, Alzner
The discussion of whether the Boston Bruins could get out from under the contract of veteran center David Backes has been ongoing for some time. It’s been determined that Backes, who has seen his numbers drop significantly in the last year while the team still owes him two more years at $6MM AAV, would be almost impossible to move, especially after the Toronto Maple Leafs unloaded Patrick Marleau and his one-year at $6.25MM to Carolina and was forced to include a first-round pick.
However, NBC Sports Boston Joe Haggerty re-analyzes the situation after the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers completed a swap of what many thought to be untradeable contracts. The problem once again for Boston is that trading Backes for another bad contract doesn’t help the Bruins as Backes only has two years left on his deal, while most of the other bad contracts have quite a bit more time remaining. Vancouver’s Loui Eriksson has the exact same contract and might even provide a slight more offense than Backes can, but any kind of one-on-one deal would require Boston to take an extra year of his contract as Eriksson still has three years remaining at that salary, hardly solving the team’s problem.
Unless the can find an unusual fit, it seems like Boston will be stuck with Backes for at least one more year.
- Despite making moves this summer to turn their team in a bonafide playoff team by bringing in head coach Joel Quenneville as well as signing star goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, the Florida Panthers aren’t expected to be looking to sign a veteran goaltender to back the goalie up. The Athletic’s George Richards (subscription required) writes that Florida believes that 22-year-old Sam Montembeault is ready to be the backup and the job is his to lose. The youngster made 11 appearances late in the season last year and while his numbers weren’t overwhelming (3.04 GAA, .894 save percentage), he had moments where he looked like he was ready. The scribe reports, however, he will receive a battle from Chris Driedger, who looked sharp in 32 appearances with the Springfield Thunderbirds of the AHL.Because of Driedger, who the team re-upped earlier this summer, it’s unlikely the team brings in a veteran in case Montembeault isn’t ready for a NHL job yet.
- Mari Faiello of the Tampa Bay Times writes that one of the main reasons the Tampa Bay Lightning went out and signed prized backup goaltender Curtis McElhinney to a two-year, $2.6MM deal on July 1 was because they were concerned about the fact that current backup Louis Domingue was going to be an unrestricted free agent next summer and would likely expect a raise. Domingue, who has been solid at $1.15MM, might cost too much to re-sign, but a chance to get the veteran McElhinney at $1.3MM AAV was too much to pass up. The team will likely wait to move Domingue until training camp when teams start realizing they need goaltending help.
- The Athletic’s Sean Gordon (subscription required) writes that with the signing of forward Charles Hudon Friday, the team opened up a two-day buyout window that starts on Monday and the team could opt to buy out defenseman Karl Alzner if they wanted to. Alzner, who has three years remaining at $4.63MM AAV, isn’t a certain candidate, however, as the Canadiens could have bought him out during the first buyout period and didn’t. However, the team could free up a little more money to sign another free agent such as Jake Gardiner, who still is without a contract this summer.
Lightning Re-Sign Dominik Masin
Another day, another restricted free agent back under contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning. After inking Ben Thomas to an extension yesterday, the team has announced that fellow RFA defenseman Dominik Masin has also re-signed. It is a one-year, two-way contract for Masin. No financial terms were disclosed, but CapFriendly anticipates a minimum $700K NHL salary.
Masin, 23, has been a long-term project for the Bolts whose potential is still unclear. A 2014 second-round pick out of the Czech Republic, Masin played two productive years in the OHL before turning pro in 2016. He immediately jumped into a starting role with the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch, but struggled to put up points in his first season. That changed in 2017-18, when Masin finished second among Crunch defenders with 24 points in 72 games. Yet, he regressed offensively this season, dropping to 12 points in 69 games. On the other hand, his defense improved and his +36 rating led the team and was among the best in the league. Masin has yet to make an NHL appearance, but this season may finally offer him a chance to debut and for Tampa to get a better idea of what they have in the prospect.
With Masin locked up, the Lightning are down to just two RFA’s left to sign: Adam Erne and Brayden Point. Point has been and will continue to be Tampa Bay’s biggest priority this summer. The team has a projected $5.58MM in cap space, but will need much more than that to get Point re-signed, not to mention Erne.
Ben Thomas Re-Signs With Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Lightning have re-signed minor league defenseman Ben Thomas to a one-year, two-way contract. Thomas was not eligible for salary arbitration and will still be a restricted free agent when the deal expires.
Thomas, 23, was a fourth round pick of the Lightning back in 2014 and has spent the last several years in the minor leagues. In 247 games with the Syracuse Crunch he has 76 points and is an important part of their blueline. It’s hard to imagine that he spends much time in the NHL this season, but there may be more opportunity there than in recent years.
Dan Girardi and Anton Stralman were both not retained by the Lightning this offseason, though the team has since brought back Luke Witkowski and signed Luke Schenn as depth options. Still, there will be spots opening before long as there isn’t a clear plan outside of the top-four past this season. Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh are signed long-term, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak are under team control for several more seasons, but other than that there will be competition in Tampa Bay after this season. While Thomas would need to take a healthy step forward in his development to really take a shot at one of those NHL spots, he’s still young enough to have some upside left. This year will be an important one for him to try and get that first taste of NHL action at some point.