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Stretch Run Storylines 2020

Metropolitan Storylines: New York Rangers

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While the stretch run is officially over with the NHL’s declaration that the play-in games won’t be part of the regular season, we still have one division left to get to in our Stretch Run Storylines series.  Our focus has been shifted to the Metropolitan Division with an eye on things to watch for in the postseason.  Next up is a look at the New York Rangers.

This season, the Rangers were expected to take a step towards moving out of their rebuild, especially after they added winger Artemi Panarin via the richest AAV handed to a winger in league history and picked up blueliner Jacob Trouba from Winnipeg in a trade.  However, they were struggling through the first half of the season before a midseason recall helped change their fortunes.  Whether or not that recall gets a chance to play in their play-in series against Carolina is among the things to watch for from New York when play resumes.

Zibanejad’s Momentum

Over the final six weeks of the season, who was the top scorer in the NHL?  It wasn’t Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl who was on a tear of his own and may be the Hart Trophy winner.  It wasn’t Panarin who had a career year and finished tied for third in the league in scoring.  Instead, it was his linemate in center Mika Zibanejad.  Over his last 21 games from February 1st to the suspension of the schedule, he had 22 goals and 11 assists.  Yes, better than a goal per game pace.  (He also led in points per game if you want to look at the stat that way to balance out the differences in games played.)

Zibanejad and Panarin were dominant for large parts of what amounted to the stretch run.  While Panarin played at that level for basically most of the year, Zibanejad’s top gear was something that he hadn’t shown with any sort of regularity in the past.  While the Rangers are a deep enough team offensively to withstand Zibanejad reverting closer to his normal form (which is still a strong two-way pivot), they’re much more dangerous with that duo lighting it up.  In a short series as the play-in round is, that could make or break New York’s fortunes.

Who Starts?

For the first half of the season, New York’s goaltending tandem was Henrik Lundqvist and Alexandar Georgiev.  On paper, it wasn’t a bad duo – a proven veteran and a young goalie that has shown flashes of upside in his early career.  That didn’t translate to much in the way of success, however, which necessitated the recall of Igor Shesterkin from AHL Hartford.  He made an immediate impact and ran with the number one job until the pandemic hit three months ago.

Now, David Quinn has a decision to make on who to start against Carolina.  On the surface, Shesterkin would make sense as he had the hot hand before but more than three months have passed since then and it’ll be another month before games resume.  He’s still relatively untested in North America with only a dozen NHL games under his belt so putting him into a must-win series does carry some risk.

On the other hand, the other options carry some risk as well.  Lundqvist came into this season having posted the worst numbers of his career in 2018-19.  His numbers were slightly worse this year and he wound up as the third-string option frequently once Shesterkin was recalled.  The rest may help the 38-year-old in terms of being rested and ready to play though and he has a very strong track record of success in the postseason.  There are also questions about whether there’s a spot for him next season with the two younger goalies likely to be around so giving Lundqvist the first shot would be a nice nod to a well-respected franchise mainstay.  But is there room for sentimentality in a short series?

As for Georgiev, he was consistently inconsistent while posting a dip in his save percentage from last season.  Having said that, he stole some games for the Rangers and if he’s on, he could be the difference in this series.  On the flip side, the risk factor of playing Georgiev is high since if he’s not at the top of his game, he struggles.

There is no simple answer here as all have arguments for and against playing them.  As a result, Quinn will certainly be keeping a close tab on his three netminders during training camp.  With a limited exhibition schedule, how each performs in practice may very well play a role in determining who starts against the Hurricanes.

RFA Watch

Salary cap space was an issue for the Rangers heading into the year as they more or less forced winger Brendan Lemieux and defenseman Anthony DeAngelo into taking cheap one-year deals.  That has worked out quite well for DeAngelo who had a career year offensively with 15 goals and 38 assists in 68 games.  A strong showing in the postseason will only his bolster his arbitration case which he is now eligible for.

Then there’s Ryan Strome.  The center also had a career season with 18 goals and 41 helpers in 70 contests and will be a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility.  He went into the season viewed as a possible non-tender candidate because of his required $3.2MM qualifying offer.  He has outperformed that rate but his future with the team still feels a little bit tenuous but a good performance here could help solidify his fate in New York.

For perspective, the Rangers have more than $67MM committed to 15 players for next season with DeAngelo, Strome, Georgiev and Lemieux all in need of new contracts.  With the expectation that next year’s Upper Limit will be at or around the current $81.5MM mark, it will be a tight squeeze to keep all of them, fill out the rest of the roster, and remain under that threshold.  That means there may a bit more at stake for those players in this postseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Storylines: New York Islanders

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While the stretch run is officially over with the NHL’s declaration that the play-in games won’t be part of the regular season, we still have one division left to get to in our Stretch Run Storylines series.  Our focus has been shifted to the Metropolitan Division with an eye on things to watch for in the postseason.  Next up is a look at the New York Islanders.

Last season was a bit of a roller coaster for the Islanders.  They surprised many by finishing second in the division despite the departure of John Tavares and swept Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs before being swept by Carolina.  They basically brought back the same roster for this season and the results weren’t as strong.  They’re set to match up with Florida in the play-in round to get back to the playoffs; here’s what to watch for from them.

Sorokin Saga

For years, Ilya Sorokin has been their goalie of the future.  The hope was that with the KHL shutting down its postseason, Sorokin would be free to sign his entry-level contract and burn it through this postseason.  In a normal year, that would be allowed since he was on New York’s reserve list at the trade deadline.  However, the NHL has ruled that no more current year contracts can be signed.  That is being contested by the NHLPA with an answer expected by the end of the month.

The final decision will ultimately have an impact on the Islanders’ plans.  If he’s ruled eligible to play, he’ll have an opportunity in camp to push for a top two spot although that would certainly be risky given his lack of exposure to play on the smaller North American ice surfaces.  It also means that he’d be able to sign a bigger contract this summer as a restricted free agent and eat into their projected cap space for the offseason.  If not, he’ll ink his entry-level deal for 2020-21 (which will likely contain some achievable bonuses) and get his bigger second contract a year later.  With several other teams having players in similar situations, this is one that more than the Isles will be watching.

Pageau’s Integration

Back at the trade deadline, the Islanders made one of the bigger splashes of the day, dealing 2020 first-round and second-round picks along with a conditional 2022 third-round selection to Ottawa for center Jean-Gabriel Pageau and then signed him to a six-year, $30MM extension hours later.  With the Senators, the 27-year-old was used in a top-six role and he responded with 24 goals and 40 points in 60 games that had him on his way to a career year before the pandemic hit.

His ice time dipped a bit after being acquired and while he still received plenty of time in a special teams role, Pageau was used on the third line which is the role he has been most accustomed to in his career with Mathew Barzal and Brock Nelson playing ahead of him.  The transition wasn’t the greatest as he had just a pair of goals in seven games after the trade before the pandemic shut down the schedule but he’s hardly the first person to experience an offensive dip while trying to get acclimated to a new team.

This extended break and pending three-week training camp provide Pageau and the Islanders with an opportunity.  He’ll have a chance to develop some chemistry with his expected linemates and readjust to playing in that bottom-six role.  Pageau has had a knack for scoring some big playoff goals in the past and New York will certainly be counting on him for that if they can get past the Panthers.  How well he integrates back into his old role will go a long way in dictating what type of success they’ll have this summer.

Also worth noting here is the conditions of the first-round pick.  If the Islanders lose to Florida and manage to win a top-three pick, the selection would instead transfer to Ottawa in 2021.  The Draft Lottery will be held next week with seven teams and eight placeholder spots to represent the teams that will lose their play-in series.

Barzal’s Last Push

Barzal’s rookie season was one to remember as he led the team in scoring with 85 points in 82 games and actually out-produced Tavares.  Accordingly, expectations were through the roof heading into his sophomore campaign.  While his output wasn’t bad by any stretch (18-44-62), it still represented a significant drop.  As he entered the final year of his entry-level contract, the spotlight was certainly on as he looked to get back to that higher level and bolster his value with the expectation of a long-term, big-money deal this summer.

While his overall production dropped again by two points, New York had 14 games left when the pandemic hit.  In terms of points per game, it improved from 0.76 a year ago to 0.88 this season which is a 72-point pace.  That’s undoubtedly what Barzal’s side will be using when it comes to contract talks.

This stretch of games will be his last chance to make his case the salary cap situation not looking as good as it did just a few months ago doesn’t help him.  But Barzal had a strong showing in the postseason a year ago and a repeat performance could be the clinching element needed to ensure the long-term contract over a shorter-term bridge deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Storylines: Columbus Blue Jackets

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While the stretch run is officially over with the NHL’s declaration that the play-in games won’t be part of the regular season, we still have one division left to get to in our Stretch Run Storylines series.  Our focus has been shifted to the Metropolitan Division with an eye on things to watch for in the postseason.  Next up is a look at Columbus.

The Blue Jackets were one of the surprises of the postseason last year.  Few gave them a chance against the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Lightning but instead, it was Columbus that swept Tampa Bay.  This version of the team lacks the star power last year’s group had with Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, and Sergei Bobrovsky all playing elsewhere but they were right in the thick of the battle for a top-three spot before the pandemic shut the season down.  They have a similar matchup as their first round clash last year as they’ll be taking on Toronto.  Here is what to watch for from the Blue Jackets.

Return Of Walking Wounded

Some teams will benefit from getting a key player or two back from injury that may not have been available to play had the postseason gone on as originally scheduled.  The Blue Jackets aren’t just getting a player or two back.  Instead, a third of their lineup will be returning.

Oliver Bjorkstrand was in the midst of a breakout season in spite of ankle and rib injuries that cost him 21 games; he still managed to lead the team in goals.  He’s back.  Cam Atkinson was having a quiet year but is a top-liner for them still.  He’s back from his lower-body issue.  So is promising youngster Alexandre Texier (lumbar stress fracture) and veteran Nathan Gerbe (groin) whose performance after an in-season call-up was enough to earn him a two-year extension.

But that’s not all.  How about adding back a 25-minute per game defenseman to the lineup?  Seth Jones was one of just seven blueliners to have that ATOI and he is back from his ankle injury.  Getting a number one defender back is a huge addition.  Dean Kukan (knee) isn’t as well known but he was holding down a regular spot on the back end before he went down.

Despite that, there are some players who won’t be returning.  Josh Anderson won’t be ready to go from his shoulder surgery and while he had a tough year offensively, his physicality will certainly be missed.  Veteran Brandon Dubinsky (wrist) will also remain out.  Even with them not playing, Columbus is getting several core players plus important regulars back.  Not many teams can say they’ll benefit anywhere near as much from this delay as them.

Who Starts?

There were understandably question marks between the pipes heading into the season.  There are now as well.  But it’s a different set of questions entirely.

Heading into the season, it seemed like the Blue Jackets were being risky going with a relatively unproven tandem of Joonas Korpisalo and rookie Elvis Merzlikins.  Merzlikins struggling early on only compound that.  However, both got going as the season progressed and when Korpisalo went down, Merzlikins came in and went on a tear, making a compelling case to stay in the top role in the process.

Both now are healthy and with the fact that it will be more than four months between games before teams take to the ice again, it’s an entirely clean slate.  Their three-week training camp could very well represent the competition to see who gets the nod in the first game against Toronto.

This series represents an interesting clash of styles.  The Maple Leafs had the second-most goals in the league this season while the Blue Jackets allowed the third-fewest.  With Columbus being a defense-first, low-scoring team, whoever gets the tap to start is going to have that extra challenge of facing a top attack.

Dubois’ Final Push

Heading into this season, Pierre-Luc Dubois looked like a prime candidate for a breakout year.  His sophomore campaign was strong and he played well in their playoff run last season.  Things didn’t quite go as planned, however.  While he managed to lead the Blue Jackets in scoring this year, his goals per game and points per game averages dipped despite a small uptick in ice time.  Losing players like Duchene and Panarin shifted Dubois from a secondary role to a front line one but the improvement in production wasn’t there.

As a restricted free agent this summer, that certainly doesn’t help his negotiating leverage.  Of course, he’s still in line for a significant raise but between this and the expected flattening of the salary cap, the time may not be right for either side to commit to a long-term, big money deal that buys out the remainder of his RFA eligibility and takes out some of his UFA years.  However, a big showing offensively in the play-in round and potentially longer would certainly help his case.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Storylines: Carolina Hurricanes

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While the stretch run is officially over with the NHL’s declaration that the play-in games won’t be part of the regular season, we still have one division left to get to in our Stretch Run Storylines series.  Our focus has been shifted to the Metropolitan Division with an eye on things to watch for in the postseason.  Next up is a look at Carolina.

The Hurricanes were one of the biggest storylines in the league last season as they worked their way to the Eastern Conference Final before being swept by Boston.  There were plenty of doubters that they’d be able to repeat that feat this season but while they find themselves in the play-in round, they were in a playoff spot for most of the season.  Carolina was one of two teams to vote against the 24-team format but they will nevertheless be facing the Rangers when play resumes this summer.  Here is what to watch for from them as they try to make it back to the postseason.

Who’s The Starter?

After a strong showing last season, it looked as if Petr Mrazek was finally getting his chance to be the undisputed starter.  The Hurricanes handed him a two-year deal and traded a player that was eventually bought out (Scott Darling) to add James Reimer who was coming off arguably the worst season of his career to serve as the backup.

Things worked out a little differently though.  Reimer wound up having somewhat of a bounce-back season and ultimately had better numbers (2.66 GAA, .914 SV%) than Mrazek (2.69 GAA, .905 SV%) though the latter did have 14 more starts.  While Mrazek would appear to have the upper hand going into the series against New York, it’s far from a guarantee that he gets the nod.

In a normal year, teams are hesitant to roll two goaltenders in a postseason series.  Usually, the starter gets the lion’s share of the workload with the backup only coming in if it’s a blowout.  But this isn’t a normal year with a mid-summer training camp effectively leading into a must-win series.  Keeping both in a rotation may not be the worst way to go unless one gets on a roll.  Carolina dabbled with that a bit last year and we may see a repeat of it this postseason.

Williams’ Future

One of the storylines in the first half of the regular season was if (or when) winger Justin Williams would come back.  That one came to an end in early January when he signed a one-year deal with a base salary of $700K plus bonuses.

Let’s put those aside for a minute and look at what Williams did in his part season.  He was productive in his limited role, picking up eight goals and three assists in just 20 games.  It’s a small sample size but that tied for his highest goals per game rate in his career (0.40 which he also had in 2006-07).  Clearly, he can still be productive at the NHL level and now with the benefit of having basically a full training camp, that should bode well for his postseason performance; his reputation of stepping it up in the playoffs.

But despite his success in his limited action this season, Williams has been non-committal about whether or not he’ll return for next year and GM Don Waddell echoed those sentiments earlier this month.  Throughout the playoffs last year, his playing future was a discussion point.  One year later, it doesn’t appear as if it will be any different.

Now, let’s go back to the bonuses.  Per CapFriendly, Carolina finished the year with roughly $977K in cap space before performance bonuses.  Andrei Svechnikov maxed his Class ‘A’ bonuses (Goals, Assists, Points, and Points per Game) which eats up $850K of that.  Williams has already hit $250K of his which means the Hurricanes are already over the cap and will face a bonus overage penalty for next season.  It’s worth noting that Williams will get $250K if the Hurricanes make the playoffs (in other words, beat the Rangers), plus $100K for each round victory through the Conference Final, $250K if they win the Stanley Cup, and $250K for a Conn Smythe trophy.  The further Williams and Carolina go this postseason, the less they’ll have to spend next season.

New Look Defense

At the trade deadline, Carolina decided to make a pair of moves to bolster their back end, adding Brady Skjei from the Rangers and Sami Vatanen from the Devils.  Brett Pesce was out for the season after being injured the game before the deadline and Dougie Hamilton was on the shelf as well.  Vatanen was dealing with an injury of his own when acquired and never had an opportunity to suit up before the pandemic hit.

Fast forward to now.  Vatanen is ready to play now as is Hamilton.  Skjei is still effectively a newcomer with only seven games under his belt.  For all intents and purposes, that’s half of a new back end for the Hurricanes to work with relative to what they had for most of the second half of the regular season.

When you add them to a back end that also features veterans Jaccob Slavin, Joel Edmundson, Trevor van Riemsdyk, and Jake Gardiner, you get a very deep back end.  You also get a group that isn’t going to have a lot of familiarity in terms of pairings.  The mid-July training camp is going to be very important for them in terms of quickly establishing chemistry as if this group plays up to its potential, it can be one of the better blueline units out there.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Storylines: Pittsburgh Penguins

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While the stretch run is officially over with the NHL’s declaration that the play-in games won’t be part of the regular season, we still have one division left to get to in our Stretch Run Storylines series.  We now shift the focus to the Metropolitan Division with an eye on things to watch for in the postseason.  Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.

The Penguins were slumping before the COVID-19 pandemic suspended the schedule as they had dropped seven of their last ten games.  As a result, they fell out of the second seed in the Metropolitan Division and while that may not have seemed like a big deal at the time, it came with a price as they will now have to get through the play-in round against Montreal in order to get back to being a mid-seeded team in the East which is where they were before the season was shut down.  Here is what to watch for when Pittsburgh returns to the ice either next month or in early August.

Guentzel’s Return

Several teams will be benefitting from getting players back that weren’t expected to be available had the playoffs began at their normal time.  The Penguins are one of the ones that will be getting a core player back as winger Jake Guentzel is expected to be available to return.  He had been slated to miss four-to-six months as of late December due to shoulder surgery but by the time the puck drops, more than six months will have elapsed.

After putting up 40 goals and 76 points last season (both career highs), Guentzel was on track to beat those numbers this year as he had 20 goals and 43 points in just 39 games before the injury shut him down.  Adding someone that was producing at that rate will be huge for a team that was near the middle of the pack offensively during the regular season – in large part due to several key injuries throughout the year.

As things stand, it seems likely that Guentzel would reprise his role as Sidney Crosby’s left winger which is where he was for the majority of the year.  That would push late-season acquisition Jason Zucker down in the lineup, presumably onto the second line alongside Evgeni Malkin unless they want to move Zucker onto his off-wing.  When healthy, Pittsburgh features one of the more talented offences in the NHL and they’ll be getting a big part of that back with Guentzel.

Goalie Battle

One of the reasons that the Penguins were able to withstand the rash of injuries was the breakout of goaltender Tristan Jarry.  He went from being a third-string option that was available in a trade to a player that was selected to the All-Star Game.  Statistically speaking (2.43 GAA, .921 SV%), he vastly outperformed Matt Murray (2.87 GAA, .899 SV%) but that didn’t seem to matter much in terms of a distribution of playing time.  Out of the 69 games they played before the pandemic hit, Murray had 38 starts to Jarry’s 31 despite his struggles.

As a result, it’s far from a guarantee that Jarry will be getting the nod in the first game against the Canadiens.  If the regular season distribution is any indicator, it could suggest Murray will get the nod.  Having said that, teams are more willing to let their veterans play through their struggles during the regular season but the playoffs are a different animal altogether.

On top of that, there is the fact that both netminders are restricted free agents with salary arbitration this offseason.  Murray has to be qualified at $3.75MM and should still be able to land more than that while Jarry will be slated to earn a sizable jump on his current $675K AAV.  With more than $68MM in commitments for next season already and the expected flattening of the salary cap (currently at $81.5MM), it’s going to be difficult to keep both around.  If one of them takes the reins and runs with it in the postseason, it could play a key role in determining which one stays and which one could be on the move.

Wildcard On Defense

It has not been a year to remember for defenseman Justin Schultz.  After an injury-plagued 2018-19 campaign that limited him to just 25 games, he was hoping for a rebound year to boost his free agent fortunes.  That hasn’t happened.

Instead, a pair of lower-body injuries plus the cancellation of their final 13 regular season games limited Schultz to just 46 contests.  On top of that, he struggled mightily offensively, tallying just three goals and nine assists on the year, a far cry from the 51 he put up in his first full year with the team back in the 2016-17 season.  His minutes also dipped a bit as well.

But there’s no denying that when Schultz is healthy, he can impact the game in a lot of ways.  Instead of continuing to work off the rust, he’s now well-rested and knowing that he’ll be entering what is likely to be a weakened free agent market, he has a lot to play for.  During his time with the Penguins, the 29-year-old has been productive in the playoffs, putting up higher point-per-game averages than his regular season performance over the past three postseasons.  Doing that again would certainly boost Pittsburgh’s chances of a successful playoff performance while helping restore some value on the open market.  That certainly makes him one to watch on their back end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Storylines: Philadelphia Flyers

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While the stretch run is officially over with the NHL’s declaration that the play-in games won’t be part of the regular season, we still have one division left to get to in our Stretch Run Storylines series.  We now shift the focus to the Metropolitan Division with an eye on things to watch for in the postseason.  Next up is a look at Philadelphia.

Just before play was suspended due to the ongoing pandemic, the Flyers were on a roll having won nine of their last ten games.  That helped propel them to second place in the division and while they weren’t able to lock down the top spot, they’ve positioned themselves to have a shot at the top seed in the East as they’ll be playing a round-robin tournament (with Washington, Boston, and Tampa Bay) while the next eight teams in the conference will be participating in the Play-In Round.  Here are some of the storylines surrounding Philadelphia for when their postseason gets underway.

Step-Up Scorer?

The Flyers were one of the top-scoring teams in the league during the regular season with 232 goals which was good for sixth overall.  On the surface, it would seem like they have a go-to scorer or two that could get them that key goal at a critical time.  But they don’t really have that and instead boast more of a by-committee attack.  Travis Konecny led the way during the regular season with 24 goals and even if you factor in that they lost the final 13 games due to COVID-19, he still wasn’t quite on pace to hit the 30-goal mark.  That’s a bit low for a team that was battling for the top spot in the East.

On the positive side, spreading out the attack makes it tougher for the opposition to key in on one top unit.  We’ve seen in recent years that teams can have some success in the playoffs with that type of approach and while the other teams that will be jockeying for seeding when play resumes, the Flyers will be the one team that stands out for being different in their approach.

Wingers James van Riemsdyk (now recovered from his finger fracture) and Jakub Voracek both had tough seasons while center Claude Giroux took a step back from well.  Giroux, in particular, has had a knack for stepping up in the postseason and could be one to watch for but all three have to be considered bounce-back options to watch for.

Gostisbehere’s Role

2018-19 wasn’t a great year for defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere.  While he still managed to put up 37 points in 78 games, that was a far cry from the 65 he had a season before.  Things got a lot worse this season.  Offensively, the 27-year-old struggled mightily, recording just a dozen points in 42 contests.  Yes, he missed 21 games with knee issues but he was also a frequent healthy scratch down the stretch.

Will that continue into the postseason?  If head coach Alain Vigneault wasn’t comfortable using him late in the year, it’s difficult to think he’s currently in their projected top six.  Much can change between now and then though.

Assuming Gostisbehere’s role is at best limited in Philadelphia’s postseason run, it’s certainly going to further call into question his long-term future with the team.  With the Upper Limit of the salary cap appearing unlikely to move up much over the next couple of years, he could quickly go from being a nice luxury to have to one they won’t be able to afford.  A minimal role in these playoffs won’t help his value.  Of course, if he gets an opportunity and makes the most of it, that might be enough to boost his trade value after appearing to have a relatively soft market at the trade deadline.

Hart’s First Postseason

This will be Carter Hart’s first career postseason action and while he’s firmly entrenched as Philadelphia’s goalie of the future, how he performs could affect their offseason plans.  No, they’re not going to bring in someone that’s going to challenge him for the number one role but this postseason should be a good testing ground to see if they believe Hart is ready for a heavier workload.

If that’s the case, perhaps they’d be able to set their sights on a cheaper backup goalie and use some of their savings at another position.  On the flip side, if he struggles, that might be enough for GM Chuck Fletcher to think that he needs a backup that can play a bit more in a pinch.  (Whether that’s Brian Elliott again or someone else remains to be seen.)

There’s no doubt that Hart is a fixture in their long-term plans but how he performs this postseason may be enough to factor into their short-term plans for next season when it comes to his backup.  That’s certainly not going to provide any extra pressure on the 21-year-old but between going through his first playoff run, this should be something to follow.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Storylines: Washington Capitals

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While the stretch run is officially over with the NHL’s declaration that the play-in games won’t be part of the regular season, we still have one division left to get to in our Stretch Run Storylines series.  We now shift the focus to the Metropolitan Division with an eye on things to watch for in the postseason.  We begin with a look at Washington.

The Capitals faltered a little bit down the stretch but still managed to hold onto the top spot in the Metropolitan by a single point.  Once again, they’re one of the top-scoring teams in the league which will be what they rely on as they play their seeding games while the play-in series are being held.  Here is what else to watch for from Washington when play resumes.

Which Version Of Kovalchuk?

Veteran winger Ilya Kovalchuk didn’t get much of a chance to show what he could bring to the Caps before the pandemic shut play down.  Acquired just before the trade deadline, he only got into seven games, scoring once while picking up three assists.  That continued a similar drop-off from his time in Montreal after he was quite productive for them after being signed.

There is some room for optimism when it comes to Kovalchuk’s production when the puck drops though.  He started off strong with the Kings this season following an extended break with seven points in eight games.  He had five points in his first seven games with Los Angeles in 2018-19 as well.  When he signed with Montreal after being unsigned for nearly two months, he had eight points in as many contests.  It certainly seems that a well-rested Kovalchuk can still make an early impact which bodes well for Washington.

His role will be more limited than he is accustomed to; he was averaging less than 15 minutes a night before the shutdown, well below his 18:54 per game average with the Canadiens or 21:20 average for his career.  However, it’s a role that the 37-year-old may be best suited for at this stage of his career and on a team that has enough firepower to make him a secondary scorer instead of one that’s counted on to shoulder a large part of it, that will make Kovalchuk, a pending unrestricted free agent, an interesting wild card for them.

Goaltending Decision

Heading into this season, the question was how much ice time Braden Holtby would be ceding to his expected successor in Ilya Samsonov.  Despite the rookie outperforming him for most of the season though, Holtby still received the lion’s share of the starts (47-22).  One benefit of being at or near the top of the division with a top offense is the ability to give the veteran a chance to play through his struggles.

But that only works in the regular season.  The Capitals are now three games away from the playoffs so the time to let a veteran play out of a slump is over.  Statistically, there is a case to make that Samsonov should get the nod when those get underway as he had the much better numbers (2.55 GAA, .913 SV% compared to 3.11 and .897 for Holtby).  Holtby is certainly a well-regarded veteran but it may be tough to justify putting someone with a save percentage below the league average in there each game.

There are certainly questions about Holtby’s future as well.  Washington was already looking like they were going to be a cap-strapped team before the pandemic began; with the projected cap increase looking exceedingly unlikely, it’s even harder to foresee a scenario where he’ll be able to return for 2020-21.  This is probably his swan song with the team…if he gets a chance to play at all and if he doesn’t, that certainly won’t help his case on the open market this summer.

Carlson Continuing?

Who led the Capitals in scoring this season?  It wasn’t Alex Ovechkin, or Evgeny Kuznetsov, or Nicklas Backstrom, one of which had paced the team offensively in every year since Ovechkin entered the league back in 2005-06.  Instead, it was defenseman John Carlson.  After a breakout career year in 2017-18, he followed that up with another career-best offensive performance last season and despite only playing in 69 games this season, he set another new top mark with 75 points.

To further put that number in perspective, the rest of Washington’s back end combined for a total of 78 points (11-67-78).  In other words, Carlson was basically their only offensive threat defensively.  In the regular season, the level of attention he received won’t be as high as it will be in their first round series as their opponent will have more time to key in on him.  In the past two postseasons, there hasn’t been much falloff in terms of his production in the playoffs.  With an even bigger target on his back this time as the top-scoring blueliner in the league and presumptive Norris favorite, will Carlson be able to produce at or a near a point-per-game level this postseason?  The answer to that will go a long way in determining their success this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: San Jose Sharks

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues and play doesn’t jump immediately to the postseason, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We complete our look at the Pacific Division with San Jose.

The San Jose Sharks made a solid run through the 2018-19 playoffs and looked ready to challenge for another run in hopes of winning a Stanley Cup final. Instead, the wheels fell off with the team struggling immensely. Lack of depth and not enough stars stepping up, San Jose wasn’t able to put together their winnings ways, which cost the job of head coach Peter DeBoer (who eventually took the Vegas job and turned their struggles around) and saw the team drop like a brick in the standings with the worst record in the Western Conference.

Hertl Bounce-Back

The team suffered through a number of injuries this season, but their most devastating loss was top scorer Tomas Hertl, who tore his ACL and MCL in his left knee during a game on Jan. 29. Even if the league does go with a 24-team playoffs, the Sharks would be on the outside looking in, so they have to  hope their star players can bounce back.

After a 35-goal, 74-point season in 2018-19, many thought that Hertl might take his team to the next level. His numbers, however, were down this year in 48 games, scoring just 16 goals and 36 points. The team will need the veteran to not only bounce back from a major knee injury and find that scoring touch, which could be a great challenge. Word is that Hertl is making valuable progress in his recovery and is well ahead of schedule, suggesting he should be ready to be ready for training camp, whenever that is. Of course, can he bounce back offensively?

Will Sharks Bring Back Veterans?

The Sharks will have a couple decisions to make about their longtime veterans, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau. Both are unrestricted free agents, but do they want to bring back both their long-time stars for another year?

Thornton will turn 41 in July and has expressed interest in returning to the Sharks for another season. The veteran was open to a trade when the trade deadline neared, but he received little interest from top playoff teams and San Jose didn’t get an offer worth taking. Thornton remains a solid middle-six option for them. Even at age 40, he still managed to score 31 points, while averaging 15:30 of ice time. The question is can he keep those numbers up or will his play continue to regress, making him more of a liability on the ice.

Marleau is a somewhat different story as the Sharks did get an offer for him at the trade deadline and did trade him to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a conditional 2021 third-rounder (unless the Penguins win the 2020 Stanley Cup, which would make it a 2021 second-rounder). However, there have been plenty of reports suggesting that Marleau, who will be a unrestricted free agent this offseason, would be open to returning to the Sharks. Even though he will turn 41 in September, Marleau finished with 11 goals and 22 points this season and showed some of his old scoring ways. Again, those numbers are also career-lows even with the Coronavirus shortening the season. However, he is just 51 games away from breaking Gordie Howe’s games played record, which suggests he’s open to another season.

Goaltending Needs

The Sharks goaltending was also a significant reason for the teams’ struggles. San Jose locked up Martin Jones in 2017 to be their long-term goalie for the next six years, but with four years still on his contract, the team has to wonder if Jones is that answer. The 30-year-old is coming off two straight inconsistent seasons as he finished this season with a 17-21-2 record with a 3.00 GAA and a .896 save percentage. The hope was that backup Aaron Dell might be able to take a bigger load, but he struggled as well this year and now will be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason.

Where will the relief come from. It seems likely the team will bring in someone to help out, but with cap room being an issue, the Sharks may not be able to add anything more than a backup. The team did sign Russian goaltender Alexei Melnichuk to an entry-level contract. The 21-year-old dominated as a backup netminder in the KHL, but likely will need some time in the AHL before being ready to contribute.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Los Angeles Kings

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues and play doesn’t jump immediately to the postseason, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Pacific Division with Los Angeles.

It is not the best of times in Los Angeles right now.  Last season, both John Stevens and Willie Desjardins weren’t able to lead the team to the postseason.  They brought in Todd McLellan for this season but he hasn’t fared any better aside from the Kings going from last in the division to second last before the stoppage in the schedule.  If there is a stretch run, the focus will be on next season which is where our storylines look.

Left Defense Battle

To say that the Kings have a weakness on the left side of their back end would be putting it lightly.  Any remaining games are going to be chances for veterans like Ben Hutton and Joakim Ryan to make their final push for a contract for next season.  It’s possible that one of them returns but with GM Rob Blake indicating earlier this month that they’re expecting to add on that side before the start of next season, both getting brought back seems less likely.

On top of that, Mikey Anderson will probably be given a chance to stake his case for a full-time spot in 2020-21 as well.  He didn’t look out of place in a six-game stint after the trade deadline that saw him log at least 18 minutes a game in each of those.  Any remaining regular season action would be beneficial from a development perspective at the very least and if he shows that he may be ready for a regular role, it would give Blake a little bit more flexibility heading into the offseason.

Vilardi Showcase

It has been a rough couple of seasons when it comes to center Gabriel Vilardi as back injuries have lingered.  He was able to see some regular action with AHL Ontario this season and fared pretty well with 25 points in 32 games in what was basically his first real tour through the minors as a 20-year-old.

The Kings took notice and brought him up just before the trade deadline and he responded with a goal and an assist in his NHL debut.  Just before the break, he had points in three straight games and sits at seven points in ten contests despite not even averaging 13 minutes per game.

That caution was understandable as this was basically his first extended action in the better part of two years; it made sense to ease him in instead of giving him a big role right away.  But with this extended pause, the time may be right to ramp up his minutes if regular season play resumes.  Yes, the games will largely be meaningless but Vilardi is one of their top prospects and any opportunity to give him NHL minutes is useful.  Seeing him healthy and rested is something they’ve yet to be able to do.  This will be their chance.

Petersen’s Potential

The trade of Jack Campbell to Toronto just before the trade deadline paved the way for Calvin Petersen to be promoted to the full-time backup role.  He played well following the recall, posting a 2.64 GAA and a .922 SV% in eight games.  Those numbers were nearly identical to what he put up in an 11-game stint last season (2.61 GAA, .924 SV%).  However, they’re also a lot better than what he accomplished with AHL Ontario over that same stretch so there are certainly question marks about his ability to contribute at the NHL level.

With Jonathan Quick’s play tailing off over the last couple of years, there are viable questions about how much longer he’ll able to hold down the number one job.  At the very least, they need to explore moving closer to a time-sharing situation and the Kings did take a step in that direction this season.  If regular season play returns, this would be a good opportunity to give Petersen some more game action.  Can he play at the level that he has in his brief NHL action or will his performance revert closer to his AHL numbers?  While a few largely meaningless games wouldn’t entirely answer that question, this would be a good time to test him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Arizona Coyotes

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues (something the league remains hopeful of doing), there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Pacific Division with Arizona.

This was the year for the Arizona Coyotes who looked to be a playoff team finally after a lengthy rebuild. The team was clearly headed for the playoffs at Christmas, loaded with star scorers in Phil Kessel and newly acquired Taylor Hall leading the way. However, the team slipped down the standings after suffering several key injuries in the second-half of the season and currently sit outside the playoff race, but if the team gets another chance at finishing up their regular season, they could surprise some teams.

Making the Playoffs?

If the regular season ended today, the Arizona Coyotes would not be heading to the playoffs. They still have a slim chance, but the word slim is optimal. They currently own a .529 points percentage with 12 games remaining. Unfortunately, the Calgary Flames would currently own the second wild card slot with a .564 percentage and both Winnipeg and Minnesota stand between the Coyotes and the playoffs. That’s three teams they would have to jump over, suggesting that it might be quite a challenge for the team.

The team might have advantages with a healthy goaltender tandem, and a defense-first system, but even if they dominate in the final 12 games, they might still have to hope for several teams to struggle out of the gate to help hoist them into the playoffs.

Taylor Hall’s Decision

The decision to trade for Taylor Hall wasn’t just for the final piece to the Coyotes puzzle. The move was also meant to convince the former Hart Trophy winner to sign a long-term deal to stay in the desert. Arizona, at the time of the trade was at the top of the Pacific Division and looked like a lock to make the playoffs. Hall was intrigued to go there.

Instead, the team has struggled since Hall joined the team, going 14-17-4 before play was suspended and it now looks like the 28-year-old will miss the playoffs for the ninth time in 10 seasons on the ice. General manager John Chayka is going to have to convince Hall, who had already decided he didn’t want to stay in New Jersey who was in a rebuild, that the Coyotes are a playoff team. With plenty of other teams ready to bid for the star’s services, likely with better playoff resumes, Hall may want to go elsewhere.

To make matters even more difficult for Chayka is that the team’s salary cap situation isn’t good right now and the GM will likely have to move out some players/contracts if Hall is willing to sign.

Kuemper Ready for Final Run?

Much of the Coyotes success was a result of the spectacular play of Darcy Kuemper, who established himself as the team’s No. 1 goaltender over injury-prone Antti Raanta. He played 55 games in 2018-19 with a 2.33 GAA and a .925 save percentage and those numbers only got better. At Christmas, Kuemper was amongst a short list of Vezina candidates with his play. So far this year, he has played 29 games and improved his numbers to a 2.22 GAA and a .929 save percentage.

Unfortunately, Kuemper went down with a lower-body injury on Dec. 19 and didn’t return to the ice until Feb. 25. While he played well in the four games upon his return, he did lose three of the four. However, with plenty of extra time to fully heal, could Kuemper bounce back and lead his team to another string of victories?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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