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Analyzing 2021 NHL Draft Capital

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Draft picks are not created equal, that much is certain. While there is randomness and unpredictability inherent in any professional sports draft, higher picks still have a higher likelihood of success. That decline in value is not linear, either, as early picks hold much greater weight. However, it is difficult to judge just how valuable one selection may be compared to another or, in the process of making a trade, several. Many sources have tried to quantify the value of draft picks based on historical data. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn produced one of the more recent models ahead of last year’s NHL Entry Draft. Using an aggregate statistic known as Game Score Value Added, or GSVA, Luszczyszyn ranked all draft picks on how the average selection pans out in the NHL. Not only was the drop-off not linear, it showed an incredibly steep decline that all but flatlined after the third round. Using that model, it is clear that quality is greater than quantity when it comes to the NHL Draft, though a quantity of quality picks is the ultimate prize

How does that play out this year? Here is a look at each team’s draft capital in the upcoming draft by total GSVA to provide, as well as an idea of how they might be able to use it to move up and down the draft board, adding high value picks or adding additional picks, based on number of selections, specific draft slots, and prospect depth. Though draft pick trades are not nearly as common in the NHL as in some other major North American sports, in a deep and unpredictable draft later this month there could be a shift in the status quo.

1. Buffalo Sabres
No. of Picks: 10
Total GSVA: 24.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into First Round

2. Detroit Red Wings
No. of Picks: 12
Total GSVA: 19.5
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

3. Seattle Kraken
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 16.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In First Round

4. Columbus Blue Jackets
No. of Picks: 9
Total GSVA: 16.7
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

5. New Jersey Devils
No. of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 15.3
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

6. Anaheim Ducks
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 14.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Second Round

7. Ottawa Senators
No. of Picks: 6
Total GSVA: 11.4
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into First Round

8. Minnesota Wild
No. of Picks: 9
Total GSVA: 11
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

9. Los Angeles Kings
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 10.7
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into Second Round

10. Vancouver Canucks
No of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 10.2
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Second Round
Read more

Snapshots: ESPN, Pettersson, Wu

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The NHL has reached a seven-year agreement with ESPN to become one of the league’s media partners next season, according to reporting done by Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. The league has not announced the deal yet and Johnston does not have confirmation on the other media company that will be involved. The deal with ESPN is for one-half of the league’s U.S. media rights, which will include four Stanley Cup Finals between 2022 and 2028 in addition to streaming rights for Disney.

More information about the deal is obviously needed, but this could be a very strong step in the right direction for the league, at least in terms of getting back to full financial health. The flat cap which has hindered so many teams this season isn’t likely to change right away, but a strong broadcast deal could get the league on track to start increasing the ceiling once again.

  • The Vancouver Canucks will be without top forward Elias Pettersson for at least another week, according to head coach Travis Green. The team is actually on a three-game winning streak even despite his absence, but still have a long way to go if they want to climb up the North Division table. Vancouver currently sits just three points behind the Montreal Canadiens for the last playoff spot but has played five more games than them. Pettersson, 22, had 21 points in 26 games this season.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins, in action already today against the New York Rangers, named Katerina Wu to the team’s hockey operations department earlier today. Wu will hold the position of data scientist and be asked to “design and implement new statistics to evaluate player and team performance.” She will report to Penguins’ director of hockey operations Sam Ventura and work closely with Nick Citrone, who was recently promoted to senior data scientist of hockey and business operations.

Seattle Notes: Season Tickets, Expansion Payments, Analytics

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If you thought the pandemic has had a negative effect on the hype surrounding the Seattle Kraken expansion team, you would be wrong. With the Kraken set to officially enter the league late this season followed by formally forming a roster in the 2021 Expansion Draft next summer, the NHL’s newest club is having no trouble drumming excitement amid the COVID chaos. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun relays word from Seattle CEO Tod Leiweke that the team expects to have sold out of their season ticket package offerings by February or earlier. The club was forced to cap season tickets as demand continued to grow, limiting the number to 15,000 of a total 17,000+ available seats. They also expect a waiting list for season tickets before the puck even drops on their inaugural season. There appears to be no shortage of anticipation for Kraken hockey in Seattle.

  • While the Kraken won’t be able to ice a team until the 2021-22 season, they will be involved in roster transactions before then. LeBrun notes that the Coronavirus pandemic has not impacted Seattle’s ability to maintain their installment payments to the league on their expansion fee. Assuming that continues, the club will have paid their $650MM entry fee by March. At that point, they will be eligible to join in league functions such as Board of Governors’ and GM’s Meetings and can begin making trades and signing free agents from the junior, collegiate, and European ranks.
  • One area that the Kraken will not skimp on is analytics. As Ryan Clark writes for The Athletic, Seattle is already believed to have put together the second-largest analytics staff in the league even though they are still a year away from even playing a game. It’s a diverse group who aren’t all necessarily experienced in the way of hockey analytics, but it is a talented group nonetheless. Statistics will clearly play a major role for the new franchise, who have a number of major decisions to make in the impending Expansion Draft.

What Detroit Wasn’t The Worst At In 2019-20

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By now, everyone knows that the Detroit Red Wings were a bad team in 2019-20. The team finished last in the NHL with a 17-49-5 record. Their 39 points was 23 points less than the Ottawa Senators in 30th place and a whopping 61 points behind the President’s Trophy-winning Boston Bruins. Their .275 points percentage was historically bad, eighth-worst in the modern era and the very worst if expansions teams are removed.

But just how pervasive was Detroit’s failure this season? The Red Wings finished last in almost every meaningful statistic. The team was the worst at both scoring and preventing goals in 2019-20. Their meager 2.0 goals per game was more than half a goal behind the 30th-ranked Los Angeles Kings. They gave up 3.73 goals per game, nearly two more goals than they scored and .38 GAA behind the Ottawa Senators in 30th. In contrast, .38 more than the Senators’ goals against would be a sub-3.0 GAA and in the top half of the league. Detroit finished last in even strength, power play, and shorthanded goals against. The Red Wings also struggled on the penalty kill, finishing in last place with a 74.3% rating.

Taking an even deeper look, the team was a disaster at creating offense. Their 27.1 shots per game was last in the league, more than two shots behind the Buffalo Sabres in 30th. If the Sabres improved by the same amount, they would be among the top half of the league. Detroit also finished last in takeaways with just 4.33 per game.

The big question is: what wasn’t Detroit the worst at in 2019-20. The Red Wings were by no means successful in the following three key statistics, but they did not finish last:

Power Play

The Red Wings should thank the Ottawa Senators and Anaheim Ducks that they can say their team wasn’t the very worst this year in a major category like power play. The difference is marginal, but Detroit’s 14.9% was .02 higher than the Ducks and .07 higher than the Sens. The Red Wings were also just behind the Chicago Blackhawks in 28th at 15.2%. Success rates start to rise significantly beyond those bottom four all the way to the Edmonton Oilers, who were more than twice as successful with the man advantage as Detroit, Anaheim, and Ottawa.

Unfortunately, when you combine the Red Wing’s low power play success rate with their league-high 13 shorthanded goals against, the team actually had a league-worst 8.8% net power play.

Shots Against

At the end of the day, Detroit had the worst goals against in the league, but they did their part not to leave their goalies out to dry entirely. The team finished 27th in shots against per game with 32.8. The Vancouver Canucks, Ottawa Senators, New York Rangers, and Chicago Blackhawks all finished below the Red Wings, with the Blackhawks bringing up the rear allowing more than two more shots per game. Detroit was actually closer to a top-ten mark in shots against per game that they were Chicago in last.

Giveaways

While bad teams and giveaways seem to go hand-in-hand, and often do, the Red Wings did not cough up the puck the most in the NHL. That honor belongs to the New York Islanders, with the New York Rangers coming in second-to-last. Detroit tied the Montreal Canadiens with 11.23 giveaways per game. This was only marginally better than the Rangers, but nearly two giveaways less than the Islanders’ ugly mark.

Yet, due to their measly 4.33 takeaways per game, Detroit still finished last net turnovers with -6.09 per game. They may not be the worst team in giveaways, but they were hardly winners in the turnover battle.

Face-offs

Finally, a noteworthy statistic that Detroit was not worst or among the worst at this season. The Red Wings’ 49.5% face-off rate was still below average by definition, but it was just short of a middling mark and good enough for 20th in the league. The team was only about 1% better than all but three of the teams below them, but the Red Wings will be happy not to be a part of that bottom group.

The 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings: “Historically bad, but okay at face-offs”.

NHL Standings By Points Percentage

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One of the biggest questions now that the NHL has decided to temporarily suspend the season is what will happen in the playoffs. The league did not explain what the plan was at this point because there is no clear timeline on when the season will resume (if at all), but many have speculated about how they would decide which teams qualify should there not be time to play any more regular season games.

The prevailing thought if the season is forced to go right into the playoffs, would be that points percentage—rather than points in the standings—is how the seeding is determined.  That’s because teams have not played the same number of games to this point, with the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders bringing up the rear with 68 games played, three fewer than those who have completed the most.

In that case, some interesting changes would happen to the standings. The Atlantic Division standings would stay the same, with the Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs still leading in points percentage. The Metropolitan would be where it would come into play however, as the Islanders currently have a better percentage than the Blue Jackets, despite trailing them by one point in the standings. The Blue Jackets just so happen to hold the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference.

Over in the Western Conference there is a similar situation. The Nashville Predators are just barely ahead of the Winnipeg Jets in percentage, despite being two points behind them in the standings. The Vancouver Canucks are also just ahead of the Calgary Flames, meaning both divisions would have a swap.

Of course, none of this is certain to play out at this point. The NHL may resume the regular season and play out the dozen or so games left for each team, or may not be able to return to normal at all this year. There are also other options like a play-in tournament that some have suggested. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see what comes about in the next weeks and months. The full standings by points percentage is as follows:

Atlantic Division

x-Boston Bruins: .714, 44-14-12
x-Tampa Bay Lightning: .657, 43-21-6
x-Toronto Maple Leafs: .579, 36-25-9
Florida Panthers: .565, 35-26-8
Montreal Canadiens: .500, 31-31-9
Buffalo Sabres: .493, 30-31-8
Ottawa Senators: .437, 25-34-12
Detroit Red Wings: .275, 17-49-5

Metropolitan Division

x-Washington Capitals: .652, 41-20-8
x-Philadelphia Flyers: .645, 41-21-7
x-Pittsburgh Penguins: .623, 40-23-6
w1-Carolina Hurricanes: .596, 38-25-5
w2-New York Islanders: .588, 35-23-10
Columbus Blue Jackets: .579, 33-22-15
New York Rangers: .564, 37-28-5
New Jersey Devils: .493, 28-29-12

Central Division

x-St. Louis Blues: .662, 42-19-10
x-Colorado Avalanche: .657, 42-20-8
x-Dallas Stars: .594, 37-24-8
w1-Nashville Predators: .565, 35-26-8
Winnipeg Jets: .563, 37-28-6
Minnesota Wild: .558, 35-27-7
Chicago Blackhawks: .514, 32-30-8

Pacific Division

x-Vegas Golden Knights: .606, 39-24-8
x-Edmonton Oilers: .585, 37-25-9
x-Vancouver Canucks: .565, 36-27-6
w2-Calgary Flames: .564, 36-27-7
Arizona Coyotes: .529, 33-29-8
Anaheim Ducks: .472, 29-33-9
Los Angeles Kings: .457, 29-35-6
San Jose Sharks: .450, 29-36-5

x = Divisional Playoff Spot
w = Wildcard Playoff Spot

Bettman Speaks On Tracking Technology, Nassau Coliseum, Olympics, And More

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NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman addressed the gathered media at the NHL All-Star Game in St. Louis this evening, speaking on a variety of topics. The long-time leader of the league had plenty to say, including confirming a 2021 All-Star weekend hosted by the Florida Panthers and introducing the league’s All-Decade teams. Here are some notes on other topics that Bettman touched on:

  • Player and puck tracking will become a reality in the NHL in the not too distant future. Bettman announced that the tracking technology will be available in all 16 arenas for the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs and is likely to be operational in every NHL arena for the start of the 2020-21 season. The tracking data will allow for more accurate and polished statistics and game scoring, as well allowing for new stats and data visualizations that will further advance hockey analytics.
  • The question of which arenas will have tracking this spring will depend on how the rest of the season plays out. However, one team is already being forced to focus on where they might play should they make the playoffs. Bettman stated that a decision has not yet been made as to whether the New York Islanders will play their postseason games at the Nassau Coliseum, the preferred location of the team, or the Barclay’s center. Bettman called Nassau a “challenge” and that it is not a major league facility, which would cause problems if the Islanders made a deep playoff run. Bettman also acknowledged that a request has been made for New York to play all of their home games at Nassau Coliseum next season, but believes it is too early to make that decision.
  • One thing it is not too early for is continuing CBA talks. Bettman said that the league is expecting to go resume negotiations on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement with the NHLPA soon, after enough progress was made back in September that both sides decided not to use their opt-out clauses. There is plenty of time before the current CBA expires in 2022, but Bettman and company are eager to build on positive talks and get a new deal in place.
  • A bargaining issue that the NHL continues to hold firm on is Olympic participation. Bettman noted today that the league’s opinion that attending the Games is “extraordinarily disruptive” has not changed. He acknowledged that the players’ association would like to return to the Olympics, but that the league is comfortable without participating in Beijing in 2022. Bettman has not completely closed the door on the idea, but does not want to spread “false hope”. He added that the league will make a decision on their own time and will not abide by any deadline provided by the IIHF.
  • Another major league change that has the support of many, but not the NHL itself, is a change to the current playoff format. Bettman revealed that there have been no talks of altering the current postseason structure, even in a season with drastic competitive balance differences between divisions. The upcoming addition of the Seattle expansion team is not expected to change the playoff format either.

Arbitration Breakdown: Joel Edmundson & Jake McCabe

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Salary arbitration season is already almost over, as hearings began on July 20th and extend through this Sunday, August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. Four such cases have gone all the way through the process this year, with four more left on the schedule. What goes on behind closed doors before the point of an arbitrator’s award? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

In our final breakdown this off-season, we’re doing something different and using two players who are both scheduled to go to hearing on Sunday: the St. Louis Blues’ Joel Edmundson and the Buffalo Sabres’ Jake McCabe. The pair of defensemen are remarkably similar and one would almost certainly end up as a comparable player in the other’s case if he was to settle in the next 36 hours or so. Even if that doesn’t happen, the two could certainly share some other comparables. Both Edmundson and McCabe fit within a rough criteria of between 220 and 320 career games played and .175 and .25 career points per game. The same margins were used to find potential shared comparables, but how the players may be used can differ by case. Here is a closer look:

Joel Edmundson

Career Statistics: 269 games played, 13 goals, 39 assists, 52 points, +18 rating, 18:13 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 64 games played, 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points, +8 rating, 19:23 ATOI

Filing Numbers: Edmundson – One year, $4.2MM, Blues – One year, $2.3MM (midpoint: $3.25MM)

Jake McCabe

Career Statistics: 274 games played, 14 goals, 47 assists, 61 points, -19 rating, 19:26 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 59 games played, 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points, -4 rating, 18:57 ATOI

Filing Numbers: McCabe – One year, $4.3MM, Sabres – One year, $1.95MM (midpoint: $3.125MM)

Potential Comparable Players

Nikita Zadorov (2019)
Career Statistics: 292 games played, 18 goals, 44 assists, 62 points, -16 rating, 18:14 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 70 games played, 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points, +19 rating, 17:12 ATOI
Salary: $3.2MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Team Side Comp – Although Zadorov’s new contract comes in slightly below the midpoint of Edmundson and the Blues, St. Louis will likely still use Zadorov as a comparable player. A similar size and style of player to Edmundson, Zadorov has more experience despite being two years younger. That alone is a strong argument. Although Zadorov’s additional career games played skew his numbers somewhat as a comparison, it doesn’t influence his career points per game, which is higher than Edmundson’s. Both players have very similar ice time numbers in their careers, including a drop-off in the platform. However, Zadorov has made the greater impact in terms of games played, as Edmundson has never surpassed 70 games in a season. Zadorov also has a major edge in the physical game. Edmundson’s camp will argue that he is the more adept shot blocker as well as shot taker and played a bigger role in the platform season, but this is a tough comp for the player side.
  • McCabe’s Case: Common Comp – McCabe has a much better case against Zadorov than Edmundson. First, he is more similar in both age and experience. Second, he has the superior career points per game by a notable margin. Zadorov’s salary is on the opposite side of the midpoint for McCabe’s case compared to Edmundson’s, so the player side will argue that the award belongs on the plus side. However, he could end up as a common comparable player, as the Sabres have a strong case that Zadorov’s age and experience along with far superior physical game offset McCabe’s slight offensive advantages. They can also not McCabe’s lack of availability, playing less than 60 games in each of the past two years while Zadorov has played 70+. Zadorov could be the defining case for McCabe.

Trevor van Riemsdyk (2018)
Career Statistics: 237 games played, 11 goals, 36 assists, 47 points, +21 rating, 18:08 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points, +9 rating, 17:03 ATOI
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – How well Edmundson contrasts himself with van Riemsdyk could make or break his case. Edmundson is younger and has more experience that van Riemsdyk did and is unquestionably a better physical force. However, van Riemsdyk has slightly better career scoring numbers and enjoyed a stronger platform season on the score sheet. The team side will counter with these points and, while they won’t succeed in driving Edmundson’s price down to van Riemsdyk’s $2.3MM, they could use him as a bench mark to show why they filed at that number.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – McCabe has age, experience, scoring, and physicality all on his side in a comparison with van Riemsdyk and his camp can use that to show that McCabe is worth well more than $2.3MM and closer to or exceeding Zadorov’s $3.2MM. Again, one weakness that the team side will counter with his health and availability, as van Riemsdyk played in 79 games in the platform season and has a full 82-game season on his resume, while McCabe has missed 50+ games over the past two seasons.

Andrej Sustr (2017)
Career Statistics: 274 games played, 8 goals, 48 assists, 56 points, +2 rating, 17:05 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 80 games played, 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points, -10 rating, 17:35 ATOI
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – Edmundson’s camp could use the Sustr comp to further show that they are worthy of a higher award despite lacking offensive numbers. Edmundson is simply hands down the superior defensive player, with nearly 400 more career hits in fewer games, as well as substantial leads in blocked shots, plus/minus, and ice time. The fact that Sustr is the better offensive player, both career and platform, will come up though and a strong argument by the Blues could bring the price down.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – In the exact same amount of career games as Sustr had, McCabe has only five more points, but has almost 300 more hits and more than 100 more blocked shots. While McCabe’s camp has used offense as their main argument against other comparables, he is simply a much better defensive player than Sustr, as well as slightly better offensively. There’s also age and ice time arguments to be made. Buffalo will simply argue that the fact that Sustr shows up as a comp at $1.95MM justifies their filing number and should drive down the price of the award.

Prediction

When healthy, there is little question that McCabe is the best defenseman among this group. However, his health over the past couple of years is a concern. Whether or not the arbitrator thinks that it is a persuasive argument will play a key role in the award. Using van Riesmdyk and Sustr to boost their case, the player side should be at least be able to get close to Zadorov’s $3.2MM. However, it’s a toss up at that point between the two and the injury concerns could play a role. Leaving a narrow margin for an arbitrator who value blue line offense above all else, the likely range for an award is between $3-3.4MM. It thus stands to reason that McCabe has a good chance of receiving a favorable award.

Although he may be the bigger name, Edmundson’s odds are not as strong. It’s difficult to see an arbitrator agreeing that Edmundson is a superior player to Zadorov, whose salary comes in slightly below the midpoint of the case. That makes the chances fairly slim that he will receive a favorable award versus the Blues. As for the specific result, the van Riemsdyk comparison will be the key, as he is a more similar player results-wise. If Edmundson’s camp can express that Edmundson is not just slightly better, but much better and also younger and more experienced, they could wind up pushing $3MM. Expect the range to be somewhere around $2.6-3MM, though.

Arbitration Breakdown: Linus Ullmark

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings began on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

The Buffalo Sabres are 50/50 on settling arbitration cases so far this summer, coming to an agreement with Remi Elie prior to a hearing, but going through the process with Evan Rodrigues. They remarkably have two cases left with just two hearing dates remaining. The first, scheduled for Friday, is with 26-year-old homegrown goaltender Linus Ullmark. Ullmark’s performance as well as his role with the team has been up and down over his career and there is no consensus as to whether he is still growing into a future starter or has settled into a backup position. That much was evident when the two sides exchanged filing numbers, as the two figures were drastically far apart. The Sabres prevailed against Rodrigues in a case that seemingly favored the player; will they do so again? Here is a closer look at the case:

The Case of Linus Ullmark

Career Statistics: 63 games played, 24 wins, .910 save percentage, 2.87 goals against average
Platform Statistics: 37 games played, 15 wins, .905 save percentage, 3.11 goals against average

Filing Numbers: Ullmark – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $800K (midpoint: $1.725MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Starting-Caliber Goaltender: strong 2017-18 numbers in NHL and AHL; comparable numbers to starter Carter Hutton in platform season; higher quality start percentage than Hutton in platform season
  • Lacking Opportunity: strong numbers in 20 appearances as a rookie in 2015-16, made only six appearances over the next two seasons; Sabres were ninth-worst in shots allowed in platform season, lacked opportunity to play behind competent defense

Team Side

Themes:

  • Backup-Caliber Goaltender: inferior statistics to starter Hutton in platform season; SV% and GAA ranked in bottom ten among 48 goalies with at least 30 appearances in platform season; unable to earn more appearances in prior seasons
  • Unreliable Goaltender: cannot handle regular NHL workload, numbers in five appearances in 2017-18 far superior to numbers as primary backup in 2018-19; allowed four or more goals in 15 appearances, including seven of final twelve appearances and five times in back-to-back appearances

Potential Comparable Player:

David Rittich (2019)
Career Statistics: 67 games played, 35 wins, .909 save percentage, 2.70 goals against average
Platform Statistics: 45 games played, 27 wins, .911 save percentage, 2.61 goals against average
Salary: $2.75MM

  • Player’s argument: Similar career numbers; similar age, size, developmental path
  • Team’s counter: Rittich had substantially better numbers in the platform season; has shown steady improvement at NHL level, eventually winning starting role; Rittich has better quality start percentage, more reliable and consistent performances

Prediction

There are not many great cases for arbitration-eligible goaltenders with Ullmark’s level of NHL experience. That serves to benefit him though, as one such player is a case settled last week in Rittich. Although Rittich’s new $2.75MM salary is more than Ullmark’s side filed for, they can acknowledge Rittich’s superior play in the platform season and still argue that the career numbers are similar enough to warrant their  $2.65MM ask. As for the Sabres, they can easily argue that Rittich is on a much better trajectory than Ullmark, but the player side may admit to that themselves. They’ll have to really hammer home the contrast between the two goalies if they are to use Rittich’s case to their advantage. Otherwise, Buffalo will have to dig deep to find a different case that both fits the criteria for a case that can be used in a hearing and also makes sense as a comparable player, so they can add additional points to their argument. It’s going to be tough, though. The Sabres pulled out a surprise against Rodrigues, but don’t expect them to do it again. Anticipate a potential award to land somewhere in the $2.1-2.3MM range.

Arbitration Breakdown: Brock McGinn

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

Brock McGinn of the Carolina Hurricanes was the first arbitration filing to become public this off-season and fittingly landed an early hearing date. Barring a last-minute settlement, in less than 24 hours he will also be the first player to go through the arbitration process this summer. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Brock McGinn

Career Statistics: 240 games played, 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points, -27 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points, +10 rating

Filing Numbers: McGinn – One year, $2.7MM, Hurricanes – One year, $1.75MM (midpoint: $2.225MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Regular Contributor: played in all 82 games in platform season, 162 of last 164; top-nine Hurricanes forward in ATOI, points, and shots in platform season
  • Key Defensive Player: led Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded ATOI; among top-four Hurricanes forwards in plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, and takeaways

Potential Comparable Players:

Scott Laughton (2019)
Career Statistics: 272 games played, 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points, -24 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points, -11 rating
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Player’s argument: better career points per game, better career total goals, better platform plus/minus
  • Team’s counter: Laughton had better platform season, Laughton is better defensive player, Laughton’s salary reflects a premium for center position

Zack Kassian (2017)
Career Statistics: 313 games played, 45 goals, 53 assists, 98 points, -21 rating
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points, +4 rating
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Player’s argument: better platform, higher points per game career, more consistent goal scorer, better defensive numbers
  • Team’s counter: similar points per game career, Kassian had close to full season more experience

Team Side

Themes:

  • Fourth-line forward: outside top-nine Hurricanes forwards in even strength ATOI, no role on the power play
  • Not a reliable goal scorer: low shooting percentage (8.1% platform, 9.4% career), tied for 12th among Hurricanes forwards in goals per game; no game-winning goals or overtime goals in regular season
  • Regression: goals, points, shooting percentage, ATOI all down in platform season from year prior

Potential Comparable Players:

Joel Armia (2019)
Career Statistics: 237 games, 39 goals, 42 assists, 81 points, -3 rating
Platform Statistics: 57 games, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, even rating
Salary: $2.6MM

  • Team’s argument: Armia has better career points per game, Armia has far better platform, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: better career-high goals, better physical game

Artturi Lehkonen (2019)
Career Statistics: 221 games, 41 goals, 39 assists, 80 points, -2 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games, 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points, +10 rating
Salary: $2.4MM

  • Team’s argument: Lehkonen has better career and platform points per game, Lehkonen has better career and platform goals, Lehkonen has more consistent offensive numbers, similarly low shooting percentage – Lehkonen more involved offensively, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: different styles of player – Lehkonen far less physical, Lehkonen’s career and platform numbers inflated by substantially more ice time

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, the Carolina Hurricanes have a stronger case with the comparable players available than does Brock McGinn. Expect a potential decision to be in the $2-2.2MM range.

Poll: Can The St. Louis Blues Make The Playoffs?

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Can the St. Louis Blues make the playoffs? The question seemed ludicrous just last month, when the team was four games under .500 and held the worst record in the Central Division. However, the Blues have points in seven of their past eleven games and are now comfortably within the playoff race for the final seed in the division or a wild card spot (even if it is an underwhelming race that The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow coined a “turtle derby”). So, could St. Louis actually pull off the in-season turnaround?

On paper, it may seem that their chances are still slim. The Blues are currently in 13th in the Western Conference with 47 points, five points back of a playoff spot, following a disappointing loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Monday night. However, the perception of St. Louis has suffered for much of the season due to the fact that the Blues have played fewer games than most of the league. St. Louis has played in just 48 games this season, tied for the least in the NHL, and less than each of the seven teams in the wild card mix. In terms of points percentage, St. Louis is actually tied with the Edmonton Oilers at .490 and easily within striking distance of the Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, and Vancouver Canucks. The team will need to string together a few wins to catch up with division foes in the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, and Minnesota Wild, but it’s well within the realm of possibility. The Athletic’s model, updated daily by Dom Luszczyszyn, currently predicts that the Blues will finish tenth in the West, but just three points back of the Ducks for the eighth and final playoff spot.

However, can the Blues maintain their recent stretch of success? While the struggles of other contenders have made their modest improvement look impressive, the fact of the matter is that St. Louis is in the bottom-third of the league in both goals for and goals against per game. The team is still looking for improvement from many of its top players and have been unable to confidently rely on goaltender Jake Allen on an everyday basis. The roster undeniably has the talent to be better than they have so far this year, but there hasn’t been any reason to believe that a drastic change in fortunes is coming.

There’s also the matter of the impending trade deadline to consider. St. Louis has been a hot name on the rumor mill this year, including allegedly being open to trading stars like Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Brayden Schenn. Even if their recent success has cooled off those talks, the Blues will still need to seriously consider offers for impending free agents like Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson, Patrick Maroon, and Jordan Nolan. At the same time, they seem unlikely to be buyers and other teams in the playoff race could outpace them if they decide to make additions while the Blues stay the course.

The fate of the Blues’ season remains a mystery. Is this the team many expected? Has their recent success been an accurate portrayal of their ability and has their games played disadvantage allowed them to lurk in the shadows as a legitimate playoff contender? Or is this simply the bad team that everyone saw at the beginning of the season, whose struggles are supported by the statistics? With a post-bye week slate of games against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Tampa Bay Lighting, and Nashville Predators twice, we’ll soon know whether St. Louis is a contender or pretender. For now, what do you think?

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