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Doug Armstrong

Will the Blues and Red Wings Keep Their GM After This Season?

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Pierre LeBrun, most recently of The Athletic, wrote yesterday about two potential veteran GMs in their final contract year: St. Louis Blues GM Doug Armstrong and Detroit Red Wings GM Ken Holland. LeBrun implied that it is unusual for GMs to play out the final year of their deal without an extension if they plan to stay with the team.

The two GMs might have to dust off their resumes, but for two very different reasons. Armstrong has officially helmed the Blues since 2013, but unofficially ran things since 2010. And while Armstrong has led the Blues to six straight playoff appearances, the team has yet to make the Stanley Cup Finals. Pressure is mounting within the franchise as it is now 47 years since the Blues made the Finals. If Armstrong’s contract is not renewed, it will be because the organization feels Armstrong fails to make the final push.

At the other end of the spectrum, Ken Holland is on the hot seat after recent disappoints mar his winning history. Ascending to GM before the 1997-98 season, Holland has led the Red Wings to three Stanley Cup victories and four Finals appearances overall. More importantly, up until last season the Red Wings never failed to qualify for the playoffs. All that changed when the team went 33-36-13 and finished last in its division. To be fair, Holland will not lose his job for one disappointing season, but rather for failing to continually restock the organization after its core stars aged. It is not an easy task to replenish an organization when a team routinely drafts near the bottom, but the Red Wings may want new blood to kickstart a rebuild.

Both these GMs have impeccable pedigree, and neither will be without work for long—if at all. But both teams may want to move in a different direction after failing to accomplish short-terms goals in the past few seasons. Maybe both GMs sign extensions, but the Blues and Red Wings would have reason to move on if they do not.

Inactive Blues Hoping For Different Results

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The St. Louis Blues were one of the most inactive teams this summer, right alongside the Edmonton Oilers and San Jose Sharks. With their relative success in a difficult Central division, it’s easy to understand why they didn’t make too many seismic transactions. Still, they had a moderate backslide in points last season despite making it to the second round. With only 99 points, they easily could have found themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The team’s only major move this off-season was trading Jori Lehtera for Brayden Schenn, by most accounts a trade they came out on top. Still, did the Blues need to be more aggressive?

The team has one of the most consistently underrated defensemen in Alex Pietrangelo, and Colton Parayko behind him is no slouch. After that, however, the pickings on defense are rather uninspiring. Jay Bouwmeester still logs substantial time on ice, with a 22:24 average, but there are signs his play is starting to slip. His last four seasons have been negative possession seasons (relative Corsi), and his offensive game has completely dried up. He only scored one goal to accompany his 14 assists last season. Furthermore, age is starting to catch up to him in terms of footspeed. He’ll be 35 this season, and that issue isn’t going to get any better in the years to come. Carl Gunnarsson only saw sheltered time last year, with just over 13 minutes a night against weaker competition. Robert Bortuzzo is a 6th defenseman at best and Joel Edmundson has work to round out his game if he wants to solidify himself as a top-four defender. Ultimately, the team needs defensive help, especially when the team will be up against the likes of the Blackhawks and Stars on a regular basis.

The offense is deep but undeniably overly reliant on Vladimir Tarasenko. Paul Stastny is looking nowhere near worth his contract, and Alex Steen has to slow down at some point in the near future. Jaden Schwartz is primed to have another solid 50+ point season, but if the bodies around him again struggle with consistency it could be an uphill endeavor. Robby Fabbri is another player to watch, as the former first-rounder looks to put together a solid, healthy campaign. The aforementioned addition of Schenn is valuable, but the team could arguably have done more to bring fresh blood in. The team is really banking on Vladimir Sobotka to prove his worth, but there is still the risk of him not producing. He’s never topped 10 goals in an NHL season, after all. Ivan Barbashev looks very promising, but he’s still somewhat of an unknown entity at this point. Ultimately, the team lacks a proven, go-to offensive threat behind Tarasenko Whereas other teams in the division have exceptional one-two punches, the Blues are still hoping to develop theirs fully.

There were available names this offseason to be had if GM Doug Armstrong was willing to make the moves. An Alexander Radulov, for example, would have done wonders to ease some of the pressure from Tarasenko. There are still names available, though, such as Thomas Vanek and Jaromir Jagr up front. On defense, not much remains at this late date. A trade would really be the only sensible option. The team is still relatively undersized up front and overtaxes the top defenders. Cap space was undoubtedly an issue, as at $72.57 MM currently there was little room to maneuver. Still, moving out a larger contract like Stastny’s or Bouwmeester’s might have cleared room to add an important piece or two. The Blues lost Kevin Shattenkirk at the deadline, and it remains to be seen how his absence will affect the team over the course of a full year. The coaching staff behind Mike Yeo did phenomenal work to bring the team back into contention, but stagnation can often cost teams who are on the bubble. It will be interesting to see if Armstrong remains quiet this off-season, or opts for an additional move before the season’s start.

Offseason Keys: St. Louis Blues

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the St. Louis Blues.

2016-17 was an odd year for St. Louis.  Their preseason announcement that Mike Yeo would take over for Ken Hitchcock as head coach starting in 2017-18 drew some raised eyebrows.  They didn’t get off to the best of starts and instead upped the timeframe for the change, installing Yeo midseason as the bench boss.  That gave the Blues a spark as they finished the regular season on a high note and made it to the second round of the playoffs.  Here are some of the keys to a successful offseason for GM Doug Armstrong.

Add A Top Six Center

Unfortunately for St. Louis, this is a need that almost every team has but finding one would do wonders for them.  They have decent depth down the middle in Paul Stastny, Patrik Berglund, Jori Lehtera, and Vladimir Sobotka but none of them are true number ones.  Stastny is being paid like a top player but didn’t produce like one this season with 40 points (18-22-40) in 66 games.  He can handle the minutes but he’s more of a second liner at this stage of his career.

Finding a number one in free agency is basically impossible as there really aren’t any available; even San Jose’s Joe Thornton is better suited with a lesser workload at this stage of his career.  Accordingly, the trade route is going to be the way to go if Armstrong can find a deal for a top pivot.  There are some intriguing youngsters highlighted by Robby Fabbri that could potentially be part of a package if the right fit were to become available.  With a strong core intact, this is the one piece that could take them to that next level for next season.

New Deal For Parayko

In his rookie season, defenseman Colton Parayko made a strong first impression but he still slipped under the radar for the most part.  That’s far from the case now after a solid sophomore campaign.  The hulking blueliner didn’t have a big jump in the points department (33 to 35) but shouldered a bigger workload after the trade of Kevin Shattenkirk and has solidified himself as a core piece of the future.

Apr 2, 2017; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues defenseman Colton Parayko (55) handles the puck against the Nashville Predators during the first period at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY SportsParayko is at the end of his entry-level contract and will be hitting restricted free agency for the first time in July.  He’s due a qualifying offer of $925K but will receive considerably more than that regardless of how long this next contract will be.

What may make things a bit challenging for Armstrong when it comes to getting this done is their salary cap situation.  The team has around $68MM in committed contracts for next season and the cap ceiling isn’t expected to rise by a significant amount.  Even though there aren’t many other notable free agents to deal with, that doesn’t leave a lot of financial wiggle room if the two sides want to hammer out a long-term pact.  Accordingly, a shorter-term bridge deal may be the way they ultimately go, especially if they do intend to make a push for a center upgrade as well.

Determine Shared AHL Affiliation Arrangements

It has been a while since an NHL team did not have an AHL affiliate to themselves but that’s the case that St. Louis finds themselves in.  Their AHL team from this past season (the Chicago Wolves0 is now the primary affiliate of the Golden Knights and the Blues won’t have a replacement team joining the AHL next year.

While Vegas will allow the Blues to send a few prospects to the Wolves for next season as a secondary affiliate, that alone won’t be enough for their player development.  It’s unlikely that any other NHL team will allow St. Louis to send half a team worth of players down – something that was more common in the early 2000s – so Armstrong will not only be negotiating with other GMs this summer on potential trade agreements but also in the hopes of determining some more secondary affiliation agreements to get through 2017-18.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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