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College Hockey Round-Up: At The Break

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The holiday break has arrived in the NCAA hockey ranks as final exams and winter vacations will keep the college product off the ice for majority of nights over the next couple of weeks. Between now and December 28, only eight games will take place, all of which are non-conference match-ups. Play will return with a bang later this month as a trio of holiday tournaments featuring the likes of No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 Western Michigan, No. 16 Providence College, No. 20 Boston College, and more will lead us into the new year. Before conference play returns in full force later in January, fans can also enjoy NCAA standouts at the World Junior Championships.

Where We Stand

The Mavericks of Mankato reign supreme atop the NCAA rankings once again. No. 1 Minnesota State has entered the portion of their season every year where they dominate their WCHA opponents in nearly every game. The team is 12-2-2 in conference play and on a five-game win streak that includes sweeps over No. 18 Michigan Tech and Bemidji State. While strength of schedule is always a question for Minnesota State, as long as they keep winning it may be tough to knock them from the top spot given their strong results in non-conference play earlier this season.

The No. 2 Quinnipiac Bobcats likely feel that they deserve the top spot however. Quinnipiac is second only to No. 9 Cornell in winning percentage and have played seven more games than the Big Red. Their record is ahead of Minnesota State’s and their scoring margin is just behind, despite arguably a more difficult schedule. The caveat here is also strength of schedule though, as the Bobcats current five-game winning streak has come against the likes of St. Lawrence, RPI, Union, and LIU and they have not beaten a ranked team since October 22.

Of course, star-studded No. 3 Michigan will remain a threat, but the Wolverines have not been as invincible as some believed. Michigan dropped a game to No. 17 Ohio State this past weekend and No. 11 Minnesota the weekend before that. With five members of their roster expected to miss the next two games, including a match-up with No. 4 Western Michigan, due to participation in the World Junior Championship, the pressure is on for the Wolverines. Of course, come tournament time there will be no greater threat, regardless of Michigan’s final ranking.

No. 4 WMU is one of the biggest surprises in college hockey this season with six wins against ranked opponents, but the Broncos have a buzz saw awaiting them in the second half with ten consecutive games against NCHC elite in No. 5 North Dakota, No. 6 Minnesota Duluth, No. 7 St. Cloud State, No. 8 Denver, and then North Dakota once more. It’s an impossible schedule, but Western Michigan hopes to prove it belongs at the top of the rankings by coming away with a winning record. Of course, all of  these teams have to play each other over the remainder of the season. The NCHC is the deepest and most talented conference in the NCAA this year, but that infighting could keep any of those programs from landing a top seed in the tournament.

No. 9  Cornell could be a sneaky candidate to make a second-half run to a top spot. The Big Red already league the NCAA is winning percentage and are second in goals per game and tied for third in scoring margin. While Cornell has played fewer games than all of the top teams due to the Ivy League’s late start and their strength of schedule suffers from some of the same weaknesses as fellow ECAC standout Quinnipiac, Cornell is statistically elite and has a chance to prove themselves as a top team when they face North Dakota on the road once they return from break.

As for Hockey East, the historic conference is definitely in a down year. No. 15 UMass Lowell leads the conference standings, but just went 0-1-1 against No. 12 UMass two weeks ago. The defending champs are right behind their satellite rivals, but far from the team they were a year ago. No. 13 Northeastern quietly has the best overall winning percentage in Hockey East, but their only statement wins came against slumping No. 16 Providence College last weekend. Barring a chance in trajectory in the second half, Hockey East may only send two or three teams to the NCAA Tournament this year and may not have any upper seeds.

Midseason Bracketology

It’s not often that the NCAA rankings align perfectly at tournament time for all 16 teams to be assigned in exact order to their regionals while avoiding conference match-ups and accounting for geography. In fact, the odds of it happening as if by design are slim to none. However, it just so happens that the current USCHO rankings do actually fit perfectly without conflicting first-round games or illogical geographic placements (albeit taking some of the fun out of “bracketology”). Here is a look at how the NCAA Tournament would break down if the season ended today:

Loveland, CO: No. 1 Minnesota State, No. 8 Denver, No. 9 Cornell, No. 16 Bentley*

Worcester, MA: No. 2 Quinnipiac, No. 7 St. Cloud, No. 10 Notre Dame, No. 15 UMass Lowell

Allentown, PA: 3 Michigan, No. 6 Minnesota-Duluth, No. 11 Minnesota, No. 14 Omaha

Albany, NY: No. 4 Western Michigan, No. 5 North Dakota, No. 12 UMass, No. 13 Northeastern

In this scenario, the top three seeds all end up at the regional located closest to them, while host Denver lands in Loveland (as is required) and several other schools play close to home. Most importantly though, the regionals are completed balanced. Of course, this won’t stick through the rest of the year so that final rankings and regional assignments will inevitably change. Still, it is worth looking forward at some potential stellar early match-ups like in-state rivals Duluth and Minnesota or historic North Dakota and reigning champ UMass. The Frozen Four in Boston is still a ways a way, but with a number of talented programs vying for a spot this year, including many enjoying one of their best seasons in school history, the 2022 NCAA Tournament should be a good one.

Boston Calling

The Boston Bruins are certainly keeping their recent draft classes close to home. Of the team’s 11 selections over the past two years, seven will now be playing college hockey in Massachusetts or Rhode Island next year. Several are already there: 2020 third-round forward Trevor Kuntar is skating on the top line for Boston College in his sophomore campaign, 2020 sixth-round forward Riley Duran is impressing as a freshman at Providence College with 11 points in 21 games, and 2021 seventh-round defenseman Ty Gallagher is a half point-per-game with Boston University, also exceeding expectations. Already committed are 2020 fifth-round defenseman Mason Langenbrunner, the lone non-Hockey East prospect of the group who will suit up for Harvard University, 2021 fourth-round goaltender Philip Svedeback, who will join Duran at PC, and 2021 seventh-round forward Andre Gasseau, who will follow Kuntar to BC.

The latest addition to the list will make it three members of the Eagles forward corps that will belong to the nearby Bruins. Swedish forward Oskar Jellvik has announced his intention to play for Boston College next season, joining Kuntar and Gasseau. Jellvik was a fifth-round pick by Boston this year, which could prove to be a nice value for the team. Jellvik has 11 goals and 25 points in 23 games this season for the U20 club of Djurgardens IF. That 1.09 points per game mark and a +8 rating make him one of the more dangerous players in the Swedish juniors this year. If that ability can translate to the North American game, BC and the Bruins could have a special prospect on their hands. Boston will get to keep a close eye on his development too from right down the street.

 

Roster Notes: Lehkonen, Korpisalo, Maple Leafs

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As the Montreal Canadiens continue to falter in 2021-22, now last in the Eastern Conference and leading the league in goals allowed, a fire sale seems imminent for the franchise. As pundits across North America discuss who could be moving on from the Habs, a story has emerged from TVA’s Renaud Lavoie about one potential candidate who was nearly moved last season. Lavoie reported on their air on Saturday that the Canadiens and St. Louis Blues had a deal in place for forward Artturi Lehkonen at the deadline, which would have seen Sammy Blais go the other way. However, a condition of the deal was an extension for Lehkonen, then an impending restricted free agent, and the restricted free agent refused to agree to a new contract with the Blues, nixing the trade. The 26-year-old ended up re-signing for just one year with Montreal this summer and will be an RFA once more this off-season. However, it seems more and more unlikely that he will be negotiating with the Habs once again, as Lehkonen’s scoring is up from last season, making him an attractive trade piece for the Canadiens. Although Blais is now a member of the New York Rangers, the Blues could still be a suitor for Lehkonen with a different offer if they can make the cap implications work. The forward could be seen as a rental or as a long-term investment which should provide a deep pool of potential trade partners for the new front office administration in Montreal.

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets could be forced to make a significant roster move later this season, but hopefully it does not come to that. The Finnish government released a list of names this week that included professional athletes who had not completed their required military service. All male citizens of Finland are conscripted to serve a certain number of days – 165, 255 or 347 days depending on the assignment – of military service and must meet this requirement between the ages of 18 and 28. Blue Jackets goaltender Joonas Korpisalo turns 28 this spring and has yet to complete any of his required service. Korpisalo tells The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline that he regrets putting it off, but he has had his in-season obligations every year since he was 18 and never wanted to disrupt his off-season training schedule in the summers. The Finnish government stated that those athletes who had not yet met this civic duty would be enlisted to begin service on April 11, 2022. Well, Columbus’ regular season does not end until April 29 and the team currently sits just one spot outside of playoff position as well. Korpisalo’s response to the possibility of missing time because of conscription: “If they want to come get me, come get me. I’m not leaving during my season.” Hopefully it doesn’t reach that point for Korpisalo and the Jackets, but it does seem like the goaltender at least plans to serve his time this summer. He has little choice as the Finnish government will not renew his passport if he does not complete his required service before turning 29, making it impossible for him to travel to North America let alone play in the NHL. This is especially concerning for Korpisalo this summer, when he will be an unrestricted free agent. While the veteran keeper expects that a “special arrangement” will be made that allows him to complete his current season, serve his time in the off-season, and be ready for next season, wherever that may be, the last-minute nature of the situation could still prove problematic. This likely isn’t the last we have heard about Korpisalo’s military requirements and its impact on his playing career.
  • Ilya Mikheyev appears to be getting closer to a return to the Toronto Maple Leafs lineup. The Hockey News’ David Alter reports that both Mikheyev and defenseman Travis Dermott will be evaluated on Tuesday for a potential return against the Edmonton Oilers. Getting the skilled forward back from Long-Term Injured Reserve will be a nice boost for the Leafs, but it of course raises questions as well. Toronto is currently $4.9MM over the salary cap, but this is permissible given the LTIR usage afforded by Mikheyev and Mitch Marner. However, once Marner is healthy as well, a roster crunch will set in for the Leafs if no more extended injuries have arisen. Even if no one is on injured reserve at the time and the likes of Alex Steeves and Kyle Clifford have likely been bumped from the roster to accommodate the additions up front of Mikheyev and Marner, the team will still be over the salary cap. If the Leafs want to carry the full 23 skaters, they will need to save room for at least a minimum $750K contract too. This could result in a notable player being traded or waived in order to become cap compliant. For a number of bottom-six forwards, the return of Mikheyev is a warning and they have until Marner returns to prove that they belong on the team or else could be the one forced out of town.

China Will Play In Olympic Men’s Hockey Tournament

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Dec 7: After weeks of deliberation and a two-day meeting of the IIHF Council, it has been determined that China will be given a host qualification position and participate in the men’s tournament. They will play in a group with the U.S. and Canada.

Nov 23: As the 2022 Winter Olympics draw closer, there are still more than a few major questions looming over the Beijing games. One that seemed to have been answered is the status of the host nation’s entry into the Men’s Hockey tournament. Though the host nation typically earns an automatic bid into the tournament, the IIHF has expressed concerns about the talent level of the Chinese team and its impact on the tournament. Yet, just a few weeks ago the international governing body announced that it was moving forward with China taking part in the tournament and had scheduled a pair of preparation games for the national team against KHL competition. After China lost both games last week, the issue appears up for debate once more. TSN’s Chris Johnston reports that the IIHF will meet, along with the Chinese Ice Hockey Association, on Friday to discuss whether the team is competitive enough to compete at the top international stage. The International Olympic Committee has granted them the power to make the ultimate decision.

China is currently ranked No. 32 in the world by the IIHF. That ranking is out of 55 registered nations, putting China in the lower half of the world’s hockey playing countries. They sit behind powerhouses like Spain, Estonia, and Lithuania and just one spot ahead of Australia. Yet, they are expected to skate in group play with Canada, the United States, and Germany, the countries ranked No. 1, No. 4, and No. 5 respectively. For whatever reason, the IIHF has maintained through the long Olympic qualifying process that they would honor the tradition of the host nation receiving a qualifying bid. Even after new IIHF President Luc Tardif took over the mantle, he agreed that the IIHF would not make the solo decision to remove China from the tournament. However, his tune has changed slightly of late, as he was quoted in a recent interview with the Agence-French Presse as stating “Watching a team being beaten 15-0 is not good for anyone, not for China, or for ice hockey.”

Having now watched China square off with two KHL clubs, the IIHF feels they have the information they need to make an educated decision. While the KHL is one of the best leagues in the world, it’s team are significantly less talented than NHL clubs and most Olympic entries – especially China’s group opponents like Canada and the U.S. – include only the best of the best in the NHL. No one expects China to win, but what good does it serve anyone if they just embarrass themselves?

If China is removed from the tournament, the highest-ranked team not currently in the field will take their place. As Tardif recently noted when speaking on this possibility: “Norway is ready.” The Norwegians were somewhat stunned by Denmark in Olympic qualifying, but the No. 11-ranked nation may still get a second chance yet. Norway would of course still be an underdog in each of its group play matches, but would at least have a shot and could be competitive. Mats Zuccarello, Andreas Martinsen, Mathias Emilio Petterssen, and company would be ready for the challenge, far more than China anyway. Whether the IIHF takes into account the vast superiority of the replacement option remains to be seen however.

 

Several Players Removed From COVID Protocol As Islanders Resume Season

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The New York Islanders will be back on the ice tomorrow against the San Jose Sharks, resuming their schedule after missing the last two games due to a COVID outbreak. Not only that, they’ll have a good amount of reinforcements for the group as well. Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, Adam Pelech, Andy Greene, and Ross Johnston are all out of the COVID protocol, according to head coach Barry Trotz, who spoke with reporters including Andrew Gross of Newsday. Trotz expects four of those five to play tomorrow night.

That’s everyone but Kieffer Bellows, who was the last to enter the protocol before the team was shut down. It also means that if Lee plays tomorrow as expected, it will be the first time the Islanders’ faithful will get to see their captain at the new UBS Arena. Lee has only played on the road so far this season, scoring four goals in 12 games.

“Our playoffs are now” said Trotz today, as the Islanders resume their season looking up from the bottom of the Metropolitan Division standings. They’ve only played 17 games, six fewer than the division-leading Washington Capitals, but have just five wins and 12 points. They’ll be looking to crack an eight-game losing streak and somehow get back into the mix despite a brutal start to the year.

NHL Postpones Islanders Games Through November 30

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Dec 1: The league has announced that the Islanders are now cleared to resume their schedule and will play on Thursday against the San Jose Sharks. Revisions of the rest of the schedule will be announced when completed.

Nov 27: With the Islanders getting hit hard with a COVID outbreak, the league has decided to pause things for a few days as they announced that they’ve postponed their games through November 30th.  The games affected are Sunday against the Rangers and Tuesday versus Philadelphia.  If they’re able to return to action after that time, their first game back will be Thursday when they’re scheduled to host San Jose.  The league is in the process of reviewing and revising their schedule.

Per the league’s announcement, another player entered COVID protocol today, giving them eight players potentially unavailable to play.  While they didn’t reveal who it was, GM Lou Lamoriello told Newsday’s Andrew Gross (Twitter link) that forward Casey Cizikas is the one who tested positive today.  The other seven that aren’t available are forwards Josh Bailey, Kieffer Bellows, Ross Johnston, and Anders Lee plus defensemen Zdeno Chara, Andy Greene, and Adam Pelech.

The Islanders are the second team to have COVID-related postponements as the Senators had three games postponed due to their outbreak earlier this month.  As a result of that, the NHL’s ability to opt out of playing in the upcoming Olympics was activated and while there’s no indication that they’re leaning in that direction at this time, the more games they have to postpone will certainly affect their final decision on that matter.

Poll: Which Thanksgiving Playoff Teams Will Fall Short In 2021-22?

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American Thanksgiving arrived on Thursday and with it a shadow that looms large in the NHL. As teams return to the ice on Friday, they have the specter of an unavoidable trend to contend with. Over the past eight years, the Thanksgiving standings have been over 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting at least 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, at about the 30% mark, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

Last year, adjusting for “Thanksgiving” being a games played average given the league’s delayed start, it was even more predictive. 14 of 16 teams in a playoff position on February 21 winded up making the postseason, with only the Philadelphia Flyers and Dallas Stars missing out.

As much as teams outside the playoff picture on Thanksgiving fear missing out when the pattern has been so unrelenting, those clubs can at least be fueled by the desire to buck the trend. The greater concern is for those teams currently in postseason position – and not wanting to be one of the select few who blow their playoff spot by years end.

Below are the current league standings (by points percentage):

Eastern Conference

A1. Florida Panthers (.816)
M1. Carolina Hurricanes (.806)
M2. Washington Capitals (.725)
M3. New York Rangers (.711)
A2. Tampa Bay Lightning (.694)
A3. Toronto Maple Leafs (.690)
W1. Columbus Blue Jackets (.647)
W2. Boston Bruins (.625)
New Jersey Devils (.588)
Pittsburgh Penguins (.579)
Philadelphia Flyers (.556)
Detroit Red Wings (.500)
Buffalo Sabres (.421)
New York Islanders (.375)
Montreal Canadiens (.286)
Ottawa Senators (.265)

Western Conference

P1. Edmonton Oilers (.737)
C1. Minnesota Wild (.658)
P2. Calgary Flames (.725)
C2. Colorado Avalanche (.656)
P3. Vegas Golden Knights (.600)
C3. St. Louis Blues (.579)
W1. Winnipeg Jets (.579)
W2. Anaheim Ducks (.575)
Nashville Predators (.553)
San Jose Sharks (.553)
Dallas Stars (.529)
Los Angeles Kings (.500)
Chicago Blackhawks (.368)
Vancouver Canucks (.350)
Seattle Kraken (.342)
Arizona Coyotes (.250)

Which playoff teams do you think will be the exception to the rule that is the NHL’s Thanksgiving trend, losing their spot over the remaining 70% of the season? Comment with which teams outside the top eight in each conference could steal a spot.

[mobile users vote here]

 

NHL Postpones Ottawa Senators Games

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Nov 19: The league has rescheduled Ottawa’s November 16 game against the Devils for December 6. The Senators are preparing for many of their players to exit the protocol tomorrow and reopen facilities. Their schedule will resume on Monday against the Colorado Avalanche.

Nov 15: With nearly half their regular roster in the COVID protocol, the Ottawa Senators will be shut down for the next several games. Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports that the team’s next three games–against the New Jersey Devils, Nashville Predators and New York Rangers–will be postponed. The team will stay off the ice until later this week and are currently scheduled to restart their season on Monday against the Colorado Avalanche. The league has confirmed the shutdown, indicating that not only are games postponed through November 20, but the team’s training facilities have been closed until further notice.

Matt Murray, Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Brown, Nick Holden, Austin Watson, Josh Brown, Victor Mete, Dylan Gambrell, Alex Formenton, and assistant coach Jack Capuano are currently in the protocol.

This is pretty close to a worst-case scenario for the league, which obviously hoped to get through this season without any COVID-related postponements. The league already watched as the San Jose Sharks played a half dozen games without seven key players, and the Senators have been struggling to find healthy defensemen in recent days. In fact, the Senators signed Zac Leslie to an NHL contract just yesterday to give them some more organizational depth, something that may not have been necessary now that they’re going to shut things down for a week.

Important to remember here is that the NHL still has the ability to opt-out of the 2022 Olympics if their schedule is adversely affected by COVID postponements in the coming months. That decision must be made by January 10, 2022, and would obviously create an incredibly challenging situation for the representing countries to find and prepare a substitute roster in just a few weeks. Keeping the schedule as is and hoping teams can get through outbreaks without postponement is obviously the goal, but with the Senators things had gotten out of control.

It is unclear when the postponed games will be played.

Snapshots: COVID, Olympics, Canucks

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The postponement of the Ottawa Senators’ upcoming slate of games amidst a Coronavirus outbreak in the locker room has certainly raised some flags across the league. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that many are concerned not only about the ongoing crisis the in Ottawa, but about the frequency of cases popping up around the league. With more than 99% of players and all coaches and staff vaccinated, it is alarming how frequently individuals are being forced to enter the NHL’s COVID Protocol. There was talk earlier this season of reducing testing due to many of those in the protocol being asymptomatic, but in Ottawa and recently in San Jose as well, those sidelined by COVID have in fact been very symptomatic. The league had no choice but to postpone Senators games as the roster had been depleted by the sickness sweeping through the locker room and keeping players off the ice for far longer than just a simple formality might for others in the protocol. As Dreger points out though, the league cannot afford multiple postponements such as this. On one hand, the season is already longer than usual due to the Olympic break and on the other the league cannot take the revenue hit of missed games after two consecutive shortened seasons. As of right now, the only steps being taken by the league to combat the COVID issue is to recommend boosters to its players and personnel. However, re-enacted restrictions could be coming down the line if cases continue at this rate.

  • The Olympics could be at risk if the NHL is unable to control their COVID cases and postponements continue. However, Pierre LeBrun does not believe that this conversation is being had just yet. The NHL and NHLPA agreed to terms – with each other and with the IIHF – to return to the Winter Games this year and that remains the plan. However, there is a January 10 opt-out date should the league decide that they need the currently-scheduled break to make up games postponed due to COVID. LeBrun says that there is no hard number that would trigger the NHL to pull out of the Olympics, but it will have to be an ongoing discussion between the league and players’ association. For now, he states that the two sides just met recently to discuss Olympic plans and are moving forward as planned.
  • Also moving forward as planned: the Vancouver Canucks. Patience is wearing thin amongst the fan base as the Canucks are off to another rough start this season, winning just five of their first 16 games and holding a bottom-five scoring differential league-wide. Despite adding more talent this off-season to an already-healthy payroll and largely avoiding injuries to key players thus far, the Canucks again look like they are far from a contender. Dreger reports that GM Jim Benning was called to meet with ownership about a path forward and they ultimately decided… to stay the course. Ownership apparently still believes in the plan that Benning and coach Travis Green have for the team, even though it has yielded few results thus far. Both sides will continue to preach patience to a rabid fan base that is growing tired of continued mediocrity. If things don’t change in Vancouver this season, it won’t be long until ownership joins the malcontents.

Zayde Wisdom On Track For Canada World Junior Selection Camp After Surgery

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According to The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler, Philadelphia Flyers prospect Zayde Wisdom is progressing ahead of schedule after receiving shoulder surgery and could return in early December in time for Team Canada’s selection camp for the upcoming IIHF World Junior Championships.

The Flyers announced Wisdom was out indefinitely after undergoing successful shoulder surgery on August 13.

Selected in the fourth round in the 2020 NHL Draft by Philadelphia, Wisdom already looks like a potential gem for the Flyers organization. After scoring 29 goals and 59 points in 62 games with the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs in his draft year, the OHL’s COVID-related shutdown in 2020-21 allowed him the chance to play with the Flyers’ AHL affiliate in Lehigh Valley. With the Phantoms, Wisdom impressed, scoring seven goals and 18 points in 28 games as an 18-year-old.

Wisdom is eligible to return to the AHL this season, as he played enough games last season to become exempt from the standard NHL/CHL player agreement. Under normal circumstances, Wisdom would be required to play back with his team in Kingston, if not the NHL.

With that kind of production, Wisdom is expected to at least get a look to make Canada’s World Juniors team this year, although it will be a challenge with an exceptionally deep roster. If he returns to Lehigh Valley and continues to impress, he could be a candidate for a late-season call-up in Philadelphia as well.

Minor Transactions: 11/07/21

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Today may not be a busy day on the NHL schedule, but it’s certainly been a hectic day on the transactions slate at all levels of the game. There was a lot of action today on the NHL to AHL wire, but there have been some other moves today, too. Keep up with today’s minor transactions here.

  • New York Rangers goalie prospect Talyn Boyko was dealt in the WHL today from the Tri-City Americans to the Kelowna Rockets. Boyko was drafted in the fourth round in 2021, largely because of his massive 6′ 8″ frame. However, it’s been a rough start for Boyko with a 1-6-1 record and .887 save percentage on the season. Hopefully a move to Kelowna turns his fortunes around this season.
  • Carolina Hurricanes netminder Beck Warm was re-assigned to the AHL’s Chicago Wolves from the ECHL’s Norfolk Admirals, per the AHL transactions page. The move comes after Alex Lyon was brought up to Carolina today in the wake of Antti Raanta’s injury Saturday, meaning Chicago needed another goaltender. Warm’s impressed in the ECHL with a 4-1-0 record and .921 save percentage to start the year.

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