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NHL Releases Protocol, Target Date For Phase 2

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The NHL has released a memo to all teams and players, indicating that they will move into “Phase 2” of their return-to-play plan at some point in early June. That phase is made up of small informal workouts that will not include any coaches or support staff and will be limited to six players at any time. All players will be tested for COVID-19 two days before starting the workouts, and will then be tested twice a week thereafter.

This is a huge step towards the return of hockey in North America, though there are some obvious hurdles still to clear. This phase is not mandatory and players are allowed to participate even without returning to their team city. That means those residing in other markets (Pittsburgh Penguins forward Jason Zucker in Minnesota for instance) will still be able to participate without having to travel.

According to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia, players returning to Canada from the United States will still need to go through the 14-day quarantine period before joining the skates.

It is important to understand that the league has still not set an exact date and could still delay the start of Phase 2 at any point:

Based on the current information available, we are now targeting a date in early June for a transition to Phase 2. However, it has not yet been determined when precisely Phase 2 will start or how long it may last. We are continuing to monitor developments in each of the Club’s markets, and may adjust the overall timing if appropriate, following discussion with all relevant parties.

Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part III

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not be able to complete the full remaining regular season schedule and talk of an expanded playoff field might indicate that there will be no return to the regular season at all. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, likely keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

After taking a look at teams 1-10, then 11-20, here is a breakdown of the names that the final 11 clubs could use a compliance buyout on, if they opt to use one at all:

Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan

While the oncoming cap crunch caused by COVID-19 will not impact the Senators, who have sat at or near the bottom of the league’s salary ranks in recent years, owner Eugene Melnyk is not one to miss out on an opportunity to save money. In the case of Ryan, that would mean casting off a player who has overcome the adversity of addiction to resume his career, but don’t expect that to stop the Senators from moving on. Ryan’s remaining two years and $15MM in actual salary represents a large chunk of what Ottawa owes its current roster. Ryan has not played at a level becoming of a $7.25MM player at any point over the course of his time with the Senators, but especially over the past four years in which he has failed to crack 50 points in any season. At 33 years old, Ryan’s best days are behind him and Ottawa won’t hesitate to but him out and face the potential public relations backlash.

Philadelphia Flyers: Shayne Gostisbehere

The Flyers are right up against the salary cap and will have to create some space if the upper limit does not move this off-season as had been expected. The team has been trying to trade Gostisbehere in the midst of a down year, but to no avail. It may seem counter-intuitive for a contender to give away a 27-year-old regular defenseman for free via buyout, but Gostisbehere is trending in the wrong direction and has three years at $4.5MM AAV remaining on his deal. If Philly cannot find a trade, which obviously would be the more ideal solution, they may not have a better alternative to clear space without buying out a more impactful player. Some may point to last summer’s Kevin Hayes mega-contract as a worse deal to consider moving, but it seems highly unlikely that the team would move on from Hayes this soon after signing him, especially since his production this season has been on par with his career numbers.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Jack Johnson

It was pretty obvious right from the start that Johnson was not going to be a value player for the Penguins. Many were skeptical of his 2018 signing right from the start and he has done little to prove those critics wrong. A minus player whose offensive ceiling now sits in the mid-teens, Johnson is 33 and his best days are well behind him. The Penguins are another team that needs as much cap space as they can create to keep their roster together. Can they really afford to pay Johnson $9.75MM against the cap over the next three years to be a bottom pair defenseman who is more often a liability than an asset? Pittsburgh has the depth on defense to make up for the loss and could desperately use the cap flexibility elsewhere.

San Jose Sharks: Martin Jones

Entering an off-season with a deep goalie market, which could grow even deeper with compliance buyouts, few teams would be happier to have a get-out-of-jail-free card than the Sharks. Goaltending, and their starter Jones in particular, has been at the heart of San Jose’s struggles over the past two years. Once seen as a safe bet to be a solid long-term starter, Jones has been unable to produce even passable numbers in the past couple of seasons. However, with four years and $23MM remaining on Jones’ deal – a $5.75MM AAV, it seemed hopeless for the team improve in net without either an expensive buyout, a painful trade, or a very overpriced backup. This scenario would be exactly what the team needed and there is little doubt that they would move on swiftly from Jones, re-focusing his cap space on improving the roster, most important of which would be finding his replacement(s).

St. Louis Blues: Alex Steen

Steen may be a respected veteran coming off of a championship season, but he is also one of the Blues’ few reasonable candidates for a buyout. St. Louis does not have many long-term contracts and has arguably no bad long-term contracts. Steen, 36, is also one of only three players over 31 signed through this season. Without many bad deals or regressing veterans to compete with, Steen’s final year at $5.75MM looks ugly, especially since his production has dropped off immensely in each of the past two seasons to just 17 points this year. Perhaps the only other buyout option for St. Louis would be backup goaltender Jake Allen if the determine that Steen’s experience and versatility is of greater value. However, Allen is younger and cheaper and coming off a bounce-back season in which he was one of the best backups in the NHL. Steen seems like the more reasonable selection.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Tyler Johnson

Tampa Bay was always going to have to blow up its core to accommodate its young players. However, a flat cap not only ensures that this time has come this off-season, it also makes the situation much worse. In order to sign a number of key restricted free agents, the Bolts must move out a considerable amount of salary this summer. Normally, players like Johnson, Yanni Gourde, and Ondrej Palat would have enough value to garner a nice trade return rather than needing a buyout. However, in an off-season where most teams could be up against the cap, acquiring a $5MM+ player will be easier said than done. Making it even harder is that all three hold No-Trade clauses and may not be willing to accept a deal to the types of team that can afford to acquire them. Of this trio, the Lightning are most likely to keep Palat; although he is the most expensive, he is also the most valuable. Gourde is slightly more expensive than Johnson’s $5MM AAV, but is also slightly younger and has largely outplayed Johnson over the past few years. Gourde is a more valuable asset than Johnson, which could mean he is easier to trade or it could mean that Tampa tries to find a way to keep him. Johnson seems like the odd man out. An undersized forward whose numbers fell off considerably this season to just 31 points and who is signed for four more years, Johnson is a trade risk, especially in a cap-strapped market. The odds are that some team would find a way to take him via trade – if he agrees – but if the Lightning get desperate they may have to buy him out. He’s their most reasonable candidate if it comes to that.

Toronto Maple Leafs: None

The Toronto Maple Leafs really don’t have any need for a compliance buyout at this point in time. The team is very young, many players have been extended recently, and arguably none have fallen so short of expectations that they warrant a buyout. Unless the Leafs trade for a bad contract simply to use their compliance buyout, it would be a surprise to see the club get in on the action this off-season.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson

The Canucks have wanted to get rid of Eriksson for some time and with a compliance buyout they would be free to do so. The veteran forward has been one of Vancouver’s highest paid players since he joined the club in 2016, yet he has never recorded more than 30 points in a year through four seasons with the Canucks. At odds with coaches and severely underperforming relative to his $6MM AAV, Eriksson has worn out his welcome in Vancouver. However, he still has two years remaining on his contract. The team would be quick to erase that from the books. This buyout is a no-brainer; what is more interesting is whether Eriksson can return to his status as a valuable two-way forward with another team.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

Like the Maple Leafs, the Golden Knights simply don’t have any obvious candidate for a buyout. They have done well with their long-term contracts and have a roster constructed of players who they want in the lineup, including several who they have recently re-signed. That includes Nick Holden, who may be the only player who could have been considered an odd man out but recently took a pay cut to re-sign for two more years with Vegas. No one else jumps out as a player that the club would entertain giving up for free.

Washington Capitals: Nick Jensen

As good as the Capitals are and have been, this one is a toss-up because there are a number of players who could go. T.J. Oshie was brought in to win a Stanley Cup and has accomplished that task. He is still producing at a high level, but could the team cut ties with the 33-year-old while they have the chance rather than face the remaining five years and $28.75MM left on his contract? Lars Eller and Carl Hagelin, both on the wrong side of 30 and both signed for three more years, are in a similar boat. Their scoring is fine relative to their cap hit, but will it continue to be through the length of their contracts? Depending on how much room the Capitals may need to clear, any of these three could be a candidate for a buyout. However, Washington can impact their performance and their locker room far less by opting for Jensen instead. In his first full season with the team, Jensen has not been bad, but he has drawn his fair share of criticism. Jensen’s offense, though not typically a hallmark of his game, has been non-existent and he has been prone to turnovers and blown assignments. If the Capitals need to use a compliance buyout, they can likely find a better use for $7.5MM over the next three years.

Winnipeg Jets: Mathieu Perreault

The Jets have great depth at forward an nearly everyone carries the weight of their contracts. Perreault is an exception. The 32-year-old’s point totals have fallen in each of the past three seasons to just 15 points in 49 games this year. At a cap hit of $4.125, Perreault is not doing enough. He’s not the answer at second-line center and he’s overpaid to play in the bottom-six. There’s no place for Perreault and the team would likely be willing to move on a year early. While Bryan Little has also shown signs of slowing down and his signed for far longer and for more than Perreault, his lack of impact in 2019-20 is tied to injury. Even if injury issues persist, Little’s cap hit does not cause a problem when he is not active, so Perreault still makes more sense a buyout candidate.

2020 International Games Postponed

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The NHL has announced the postponement of the 2020 international games, effectively canceling them for this year.

The Boston Bruins and Nashville Predators were scheduled to play in Prague, Czech Republic, while the Colorado Avalanche and Columbus Blue Jackets were to face off in Helsinki, Finland. The Bruins and Predators were also going to be taking part in exhibition games in Germany and Switzerland respectively.

None of that will be able to take place due to the COVID-19 situation and likely delay of the 2020-21 season. The league is hopeful they will be able to return to the Global Series in 2021.

Focus Shifting To 24-Team Playoff

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Up to this point in the coronavirus pause, the NHL has maintained that their goal is to stage regular season games that remain on the schedule. The hope was that they could finish an 82-game campaign, even with a long break in the middle, in order to determine the playoff standings like any other year. Now, it seems as though that focus has shifted. Both Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet and Larry Brooks of the New York Post have written today about a potential 24-team playoff instead of any regular season matches. Friedman lists it as a personal opinion, while Brooks has more firm reporting from sources on “both sides of the aisle,” meaning the NHL and NHLPA.

Brooks reports that the playoffs would include a “best-of-three play-in round” though the rest of the format is not clear. Both reporters list reasons why the league is headed that way, including the understanding that players do not want to be quarantined away from their families for several months.

While there is obviously no concrete plan of action at this point, moving directly into the playoffs does seem to be the most prudent course of action if the 2019-20 campaign is to be resumed at all. There are so many complications that will have to be sorted out before players are even allowed to practice again, that removing a third of the league would only help things along.

The teams that would be eliminated in this scenario, according to both scribes, are the Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks, Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils.

Those are the teams most interested in a draft lottery (sorry San Jose) as well, given they reside at the bottom of the standings. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet has an update on that too, tweeting that momentum has slowed regarding a June draft. NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly told Johnston that “everything is still on the table.”

Several managers have spoken out against the idea of holding a draft before the conclusion of the season, including Brian MacLellan of the Washington Capitals who told Pierre LeBrun and Scott Burnside of The Athletic (subscription required) that “most of the managers would like it to happen in a natural order.”

NHL Still Hoping To Move To Phase 2 In Late May

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We haven’t seen an NHL game since the league decided to temporarily suspend their season on March 12th, nearly two full months ago. Speculation during that time on if, when and how games would resume has run wild, without any real concrete information being given to this point. Today, Darren Dreger of TSN gives the newest update on what the league is hoping:

Well the NHL is hopeful they’ll be able to initiate Phase 2 in later-May, but that’s all subject to a review and it is too early to start the review process. The NHL though is encouraged by the markets that are loosening up but their cautiously optimistic and monitoring carefully to see if there will be any setbacks. The motto is simply: better safe than sorry.

Phase 2 was defined by the league and players’ association as a time “during which Players might return to small group activities in NHL Club training facilities” not, quite importantly, a training camp for the teams (which is Phase 3). That means we are still several weeks away from players even gathering together to start skating in a best-case scenario.

Of course, even that plan would need to be signed off on from the union. Today, Justin Holl voiced some concerns about the American-born players returning to Canada without a concrete plan in place for when they’ll be back in game action. Players do not want to be quarantined from their families for several months, meaning they’ll have to come to some sort of an agreement before any plan is put in place.

As it looks more and more likely that a June draft is on the horizon, even if the season isn’t finished, the league still hopes that that Phase 2 will be underway (or even completed). Whether that will happen is still hard to say as the COVID-19 fallout continues.

NHL Willing To Delay 2020-21 Start In Order To Finish 2019-20

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The longer that the NHL remains out of action while continuing to maintain that they want to complete the 2019-20 regular season and have a full postseason, the more likely it becomes that next season will be affected. Boston Bruins president Cam Neely tells NBC Sports that not only is it possible that 2020-21 could be delayed, it’s a widely accepted outcome across the NHL in order to properly finish the current season. Neely states that both players and owners alike feel that it is important to complete the 2019-20 campaign if at all possible:

The feeling is there’s an opportunity to be able to push next season back and still get an 82-game schedule in next year. Everything is on the table to try and get the season completed.

Neely’s stress that a full season next year remains an important part of any plan to continue the current season aligns with what the NHL has already said. Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly has already confirmed that the NHL would not entertain shortening the 2020-21 season just to accommodate the end of the 2019-20 season. However, that doesn’t seem like it will be necessary. The league is currently exploring using “hub cities” from each of the four divisions to play a condensed schedule that can be more easily safeguarded from the threats of Coronavirus by limiting travel and controlling facilities. Such a plan could allow for the season to re-start sooner rather than later. In fact, there have been whispers that training camps could open within a month with games starting as early as June. What remains to be seen is how much time would be needed one play does resume to wrap up the regular season and play the entire postseason.

Neely’s Bruins are one club especially invested in a continuation of the season. Boston was in first place in the league standings by a fairly wide margin when the season was suspended and many of their core players are in the twilight of their careers and want another shot at the Stanley Cup, especially after missing out on the title by one game last year. In fact, the Bruins may even be in favor of jumping straight to the postseason, though Neely does not believe that the NHLPA would approve of that plan. It seems Boston will have to earn the President’s Trophy with a few more regular season wins before getting their shot a potential delayed playoffs.

NHL Could Still Hold Draft In June, Resume Season Afterward

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As the sports world prepares for the first major event in more than a month with the NFL Draft occurring virtually this Thursday through Saturday, it seems that the NHL could be using the event as a test run for their own entry draft. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun relayed word today from Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly that the league has considered a virtual format for their own draft. This could potentially allow them to keep the event in June as scheduled.

The league had initially postponed this year’s draft, as well as the NHL Combine, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the indefinite nature of the current league year left questions as to when and how the draft would occur and the impact that would have on the rookies, their NHL clubs, and their junior teams. Holding the draft in June as planned would solve a number of these issues, but obviously raises a number of other questions.

First and foremost would be how this would impact the continuation of the 2019-20 season. LeBrun was quick to note that the draft being held in June, which ordinarily follows the end of the postseason, would not preclude the league year from continuing in July or August as many hope. This of course leads to other issues, such as how the draft lottery, draft order, and conditional picks will be sorted out if there are still games to be played. Abandoning the regular season in favor of jumping directly to the playoffs later this year would simplify these matters somewhat but would not entirely answer all questions.

Additionally, a continued season would also mean that teams remain prohibited from making trades, at least in the way that deals are normally made in the off-season. The lack of draft day trades would be another stark difference from how the NHL Draft operates and could frustrate a number of teams looking to leverage picks into players.

Given the lack of hockey during what would typically be the early stages of the postseason is certainly depressing for hockey fans and makes the idea of a June draft sound appealing. However, the league will need to respond to a number of major questions with satisfying answers before they could sign off on a virtual draft before making a decision on if and how the current season will continue.

NHL Extends Self-Quarantine Through April 30

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Nearing their previous threshold of April 15, the NHL has decided to extend the self-quarantine period for players, coaches and all hockey-related staff through April 30. This is the third extension of a recommendation that was originally placed until March 27.

This recommendation is for league activities, but there are other states and cities that have recommended isolation for even longer. It is not clear how players or facilities in those areas would resume normal activity even after April 30 has passed.

There have been eight confirmed cases of COVID-19 among NHL players to this point, five from the Ottawa Senators and three from the Colorado Avalanche. All other players have been told to self-isolate and the league has shutdown all practices, facilities and even informal team workouts. The NHL Awards, Draft and Combine were all postponed indefinitely, leaving the league timeline completely uncertain.

Obviously at this point there is no word on when the league will be able to resume, if at all. The NHL has received offers from neutral cites around the continent as options to restart, though any plan of that nature would still take an immense amount of logistical planning before it is put in place. The league has maintained that they will do everything in their power to hold a full 82-game schedule for the 2020-21 season, though they are apparently willing to delay the start of the schedule in order to fit in the end of the 2019-20 campaign this summer.

Prospect Notes: Draft Rankings, 2021 Memorial Cup, McKay

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If you were perusing the NHL Central Scouting draft lists when they came out yesterday and wondered how exactly the North American and International skaters compared, Sam Cosentino of Sportsnet has you covered. The draft analyst released his latest ranking of the top prospects eligible for selection in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, led as always by Alexis Lafreniere.

Some of the other rankings, however, differ significantly from the Central Scouting lists. Of note is Jake Sanderson, who while fourth among North American skaters on one list, comes in seventh among the same group on Cosentino’s. If you want a riser, how about Dylan Holloway, who Cosentino believes is a top-10 talent despite his ranking of #12 among North American skaters by Central Scouting.

  • Many of the players drafted this year will be competing in the CHL’s 2020-21 season, trying to earn their way to the Memorial Cup tournament. They may have to wait a little longer, as Bob McKenzie of TSN reports that the CHL is considering pushing back the schedule for the 2021 Memorial Cup into June of next year to give them a little bit of wiggle room should the start of the season be delayed. McKenzie notes that the tournament will be held in either Oshawa or Sault Ste. Marie, though that decision has not yet been made.
  • Kirby Dach will have a familiar face at Chicago Blackhawks training camp after the Rockford IceHogs signed Riley McKay to an AHL contract for 2020-21. McKay, 21, played with Dach on the Saskatoon Blades in 2018-19, racking up 149 penalty minutes as one of the toughest players in the Western Hockey League. Undrafted, he’ll try to carve out a role for himself in the minor leagues, while still surely watching his teammates’ backs.

North Dakota Could Be Option For Continuation Of NHL Season

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Just about every NHL fan would agree to whatever plan gets hockey back on their TV the soonest, can best make up for the original regular season and postseason schedule, and will produce a fair and valid playoffs and champion. However, it’s doubtful that anyone figured that the best way to resume the season could be to send teams to Grand Forks, North Dakota. Yet, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman writes that the college hockey hotbed has been discussed as a possible ideal location for a neutral site continuation of the NHL season.

Friedman stresses that any plan for re-starting the season is only speculation at this point, but that non-NHL locations for neutral sit games seems like a possible outcome. Whether the regular season resumes as scheduled or if there is some sort of abbreviated schedule or play-in tournament, travel time could be cut back by having teams in just a few locations and neutrality removes any undue benefit to a home team. If games proceed without any fans, another distinct possibility, a location like Grand Forks also makes sense given it houses a world-class facility minus the capacity of an NHL rink. Friedman also notes that the low population density of North Dakota could make it one of safer places to continue play without an increased risk of Coronavirus exposure, while the cold climate could mitigate the ice quality risks of summer play.

Again, nothing is imminent in terms of when and how the NHL will resume play, if they do at all, and that is not expected to change for at least another month or two. Once the league comes up with a suitable plan, the players will have to agree to the terms as well. So, for now the NHL and NHLPA are exploring their options, both in format and locale, for the day we all hope arrives when hockey can return.

 

 

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