Salary Cap Deep Dive 2024

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings

November 16, 2024 at 12:57 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2024-25 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia. We’re currently covering the Pacific Division, next up is the Kings.

Los Angeles Kings

Current Cap Hit: $90,180,114 (above the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Brandt Clarke (two years, $863K)
F Alex Laferriere (one year, $875K)

Potential Bonuses
Clarke: $850K

Laferriere had a solid rookie season last year while spending a lot of time in the bottom six. This year, he’s playing a little higher in the lineup and has responded by being one of their leading point-getters. If that holds, his bridge deal (a long-term pact would be surprising) should run past $3MM per season at a minimum, potentially higher if he stays at his current pace.

After spending most of last season in the minors, Clarke is now a regular and an important part of the back end in Los Angeles. He’s already putting up solid offensive numbers and that should continue which will only push his next contract higher. A bridge agreement could be trending toward starting with a four if this holds while a longer-term pact could climb closer to $7MM. Bonus-wise, Clarke has four ‘A’ bonuses in his deal at $212.5K apiece and at his current pace, he could have a shot at all four of them (assists, points, ATOI, and blocks).

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Andreas Englund ($1MM, UFA)
D Vladislav Gavrikov ($5.875MM, UFA)
F Tanner Jeannot ($2.65MM, UFA)
D Caleb Jones ($775K, UFA)
F Arthur Kaliyev ($825K, RFA)
F Andre Lee ($775K, RFA)
F Trevor Lewis ($800K, UFA)
G David Rittich ($1MM, UFA)

Jeannot was acquired from Tampa Bay over the offseason with the hope a change of scenery could re-spark his offensive game. That hasn’t happened early on as he has spent some time on the fourth line. At this point, there’s a possibility that he’s heading for a pay cut; while his 24-goal, 41-point season was only a few years ago, that looks like the outlier and teams might not want to pay up for that. Kaliyev wanted a trade over the summer but one never materialized so he settled for a low-cost one-year deal and then was injured in training camp. If there isn’t a trade to be found once he returns, Kaliyev could be a non-tender candidate in the summer where he’d likely have to settle for another low-cost deal in this range.

Lewis has been on a one-year deal around this price tag for five straight years now and remains a capable fourth liner. If he wants to keep playing (he turns 38 in January), he should be able to continue that streak. Lee is holding his own on the fourth line in his first taste of NHL action. It’s likely that his next contract should be around the minimum but he could have a shot at a one-way agreement.

Gavrikov took an interesting approach in free agency two years ago, electing to sign an early extension to remain with Los Angeles but opting for a short-term agreement to allow him to hit the open market in a more favorable environment. His offensive production hasn’t returned to the peak level he had in Columbus which will limit his upside to a point. That said, he could make a case to land this much or slightly more on a long-term agreement, if not even a max-term one. With several blueliners from this class already off the market, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Gavrikov wait this out a little longer to see if a dwindling market could help up his asking price.

Englund played a regular role on the third pairing last season but playing time has been harder to come by this time around. He’s someone who might best fit in a seventh role so while another one-way contract could come his way, it might have to come in slightly lower than this one. Jones spent time in the minors last season, leading to a two-way deal this time around. With very limited playing time so far, he doesn’t seem to be trending toward beating that by much next summer.

Rittich did rather well after being recalled early last season but opted to take this deal in May over testing the open market. He hasn’t fared as well early on this year, however. Even so, he’s likely still in the higher-end third-string option or lower-end backup tier which should get him another deal in this range.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Kyle Burroughs ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Adrian Kempe ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Anze Kopitar ($7MM, UFA)
D Jordan Spence ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Akil Thomas ($775K, RFA)

This is the first season of Kopitar’s cheaper deal after making $10MM per season on the last agreement. It’s supposed to reflect what should be a smaller role but that hasn’t been the case early in 2024-25 as he’s still an all-situations top-line center. Now 37, there’s some risk in terms of his age but the early returns on this contract demonstrate this could wind up as a team-friendly agreement. Another deal, if there is one, will likely reflect the expected lighter workload as well at that time.

Kempe turned the corner offensively in 2021-22 and hasn’t looked back since then, becoming a legitimate top-line threat. While his days of playing center are numbered which won’t help his case on the open market, he’s still positioning himself for a new deal that starts with a seven or possibly even an eight on a long-term pact. Thomas, meanwhile, is still getting his feet wet at the NHL level. He has some runway to develop and if all goes well, he should push past $1MM at least next time out.

Spence is playing on his bridge deal, one that’s slightly back-loaded and carries a $1.7MM qualifying offer. With Clarke taking on a bigger role offensively, that’s going to cut into Spence’s numbers potentially but as a right-shot player with some offensive upside, doubling the qualifying offer could still be possible. As for Burroughs, he’s in a similar situation as Englund, someone who may be best served in a reserve role. Accordingly, a small cut might be needed here as well.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Phillip Danault ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Drew Doughty ($11MM, UFA)
F Warren Foegele ($3.5MM, UFA)
G Darcy Kuemper ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Alex Turcotte ($775K, RFA)

Danault has shown a bit more offensively since coming to the Kings and has played with more consistency on that front, making him a quality second-line option for them thus far. If he can stay around the 50-point range, he could beat this price tag by a bit in 2027 but if his production slows, his next deal could look a fair bit like this one.

Foegele picked the right time for a career year last season as that helped him land this contract in free agency. If he can stay around 20 goals consistently, they’ll do alright with this one while he’d be in line for a small raise. That said, 20 goals is the outlier at this point of his career (though he’s off to a good start this season on that front). Turcotte took a rare three-year deal at the minimum, guaranteeing himself a one-way salary in the last two seasons. That gives him and the Kings plenty of time to see if he’s just a late-bloomer or a lottery selection likely to be viewed in the bust category. At the moment, when healthy, he’s primarily in a bottom-six role. If that kept up over the course of the deal, he could plausibly command a seven-figure salary next time out.

When healthy, Doughty is still a legitimate all-situations number one defenseman. Price-wise, the deal holds up a little better now compared to when it was first signed as a record-breaker. Having said that, this is still on the high side, especially for a player with a lot of hard minutes under his belt and now two significant injuries in recent years. That swings the valuation of this deal back into negative territory (although his current injury has given them short-term LTIR flexibility if nothing else). Doughty will be entering his age-38 year on his next contract. Like Kopitar, there’s a very good chance the price tag at that time will be lowered by a few million per season to reflect his age and the possibility for a sharper decline at that time.

Kuemper was brought in as their new starter while shedding the Pierre-Luc Dubois contract that didn’t go well in its first year. Factoring in what they paid to get Dubois, the sequence of trades isn’t the prettiest but he gives them some stability between the pipes they haven’t had lately. He’ll be 37 when his next contract starts so this price tag might be as high as it gets.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

D Michael Anderson ($4.125MM through 2030-31)
F Quinton Byfield ($6.25MM through 2028-29)
D Joel Edmundson ($3.85MM through 2027-28)
F Kevin Fiala ($7.875MM through 2028-29)
F Trevor Moore ($4.2MM through 2027-28)

While who they traded to get Fiala (Brock Faber and a first-round pick) will loom large to a point, Fiala has largely been as advertised in Los Angeles, surpassing the 70-point mark in each of his first two years. That’s top-line production at a pretty fair price from a valuation standpoint; it’s neither team-friendly nor player-friendly. If he stays in that territory production-wise, a small raise could come his way next time around, albeit on a shorter-term deal.

The Kings surprisingly opted for this deal with Byfield over the summer, one that only gave them one extra year of club control. While it kept the price tag lower than it might have been otherwise, it also walks him to unrestricted free agency at 26 in his prime. If Byfield emerges as a consistent top liner by then, he will be well-positioned to earn several million more per season on a max-term agreement. Moore had a breakout year in 2023-24, reaching 31 goals and 57 assists, making the first year of this deal a team-friendly one. Even if he goes back into the 40-point range where he was previously (or played at that pace), they’ll have at least a fair-market contract. He could be on track for a raise of a million or so on another medium-term deal in 2028.

Anderson is one of the more underrated defensemen in the NHL. He’s not a big point producer but is a strong defender and can log heavy minutes. He’s currently second on the Kings in ATOI and while that will go to third when Doughty returns, having a second or third blueliner making this money is good value. The fact it’s their longest contract on the books at that price point makes it even better. Edmundson, on the other hand, is a much riskier contract. When healthy, he’s a second-pairing player and the money for that role is fine. But with a long, extensive track record of injuries, it’s unrealistic for them to project he’ll stay in the lineup for most of this contract. That could come back to hurt them down the road.

Buyouts

None

Salary Cap Recapture

F Mike Richards ($700K in 2024-25, $600K from 2025-26 through 2028-29)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Ivan Provorov ($2.025MM in 2024-25)

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Anderson
Worst Value: Doughty

Looking Ahead

Once Doughty returns, the Kings can get back below the $88MM mark without much difficulty though it will result in them needing to shorten their roster to get there. But even with that, they’re going to have a hard time accruing cap space; whatever they do bank will probably be needed for injury-related recalls as the season goes on. In essence, they’ll be a money-in, money-out team for any in-season transactions.

With a little over $70MM in commitments for 2025-26, GM Rob Blake should have some wiggle room even though Gavrikov will need a fairly substantial commitment and Laferriere will get a nice raise as well. However, they can either add a few depth options to add more balance to the lineup or take a good chunk of the remaining money to try to add an impact player and then continue to round out the group with minimum-salaried players. Either way, some flexibility is coming.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

November 3, 2024 at 8:23 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $88,224,659 (above the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None on the active roster.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Evan Bouchard ($3.9MM, RFA)
F Connor Brown ($1MM, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($775K, UFA)
D Ty Emberson ($950K, RFA)
F Corey Perry ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Derek Ryan ($900K, UFA)
F Jeff Skinner ($3MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Perry: $250K

Skinner was somewhat of a surprising late entrant to the market after Buffalo elected to buy him out. He found what should be a good landing spot for a pillow deal, as long as he can stay in the top six. If he does, he could push past $4MM on a multi-year deal, closer to $5MM if he’s able to reach the 50-point mark. Perry fit in well after joining the team midseason, earning this agreement to stick around. At 39, it’s safe to say he’ll be going year-to-year from here on out. Bonus-wise, he’ll make $150K at the 15-game mark while $50K depends on Edmonton winning at least two playoff rounds and playing at least half the playoff games. The other $50K is if Edmonton makes it to the Stanley Cup Final while playing in half the games.

Brown’s cost this season is a bit misleading as the Oilers are also eating the $3.225MM in bonuses he earned last year. But for what he’s making in salary this year, he provides good value as a depth player who showed in the playoffs that he can be a key piece. Ryan has seen his role and production decline in recent years and he’ll be 38 before the end of 2024. This is a roster spot they’ll need to keep cheap so it’s possible they ask him to stay on a small cut in pay. If not, he could be a candidate for a PTO next summer.

Former GM Ken Holland really only had one option with Bouchard last summer, they had to do a bridge deal to fit within their cap structure at the time and no offer sheet materialized while he wasn’t arbitration-eligible. The result is that Bouchard spent last season on a below-market deal and it’s the same thing this season. However, the pendulum is about to swing the other way in a big way. Bouchard had a breakout effort last season, averaging just over a point per game and did even better in the playoffs. His qualifying offer will be $4.3MM next summer but it’s widely expected he’ll double that and then some, especially if the sides are able to work out a long-term deal.

Emberson was picked up from San Jose as part of the Cody Ceci deal, one that netted Edmonton some cap savings and an intriguing blueliner. Now 24, he only made his NHL debut last season and he’ll need to get into 50 games this year for the Oilers to retain his RFA rights. It’s possible arbitration eligibility makes him a non-tender option but failing that, a small raise into the $1.3MM range could be doable. Dermott had to go the PTO route this year and if he stays in a reserve role, it’s quite likely he’ll stay at the minimum moving forward.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Viktor Arvidsson ($4MM, UFA)
D Mattias Ekholm ($6MM, UFA)*
F Adam Henrique ($3MM, UFA)
F Evander Kane ($5.125MM, UFA)
D Brett Kulak ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM, UFA)
G Calvin Pickard ($1MM, UFA)
F Vasily Podkolzin ($1MM, UFA)
G Stuart Skinner ($2.6MM, UFA)
D Troy Stecher ($787.5K, UFA)

*-Nashville is retaining an additional $250K of Ekholm’s contract.

McDavid’s next contract is one that has been speculated about for several years now and discussion on that front will only pick up with him becoming extension-eligible this summer. His current contract was a record-breaker at the time for the highest AAV. His next one will set a new benchmark on that front and possibly could overtake Alex Ovechkin for the richest deal in league history ($124MM total over 13 years) despite the maximum length now only being eight seasons. That would bring the cap hit to $15.5MM and while that’s a very high price tag, McDavid has led the NHL in scoring in five of the last eight years. If Edmonton doesn’t give that type of money to him, someone will.

Kane has been effective when healthy since joining the Oilers, playing a legitimate top-six role. Considering he’s a power forward (those players often cost a premium), the cap charge is reasonable, as long as he’s in the lineup. He’s on LTIR right now, allowing Edmonton to exceed the cap for the time being. Arvidsson was Edmonton’s biggest commitment in free agency, a move that came as a bit of a surprise as the veteran was a candidate for a one-year pillow deal to try to rebuild his value after an injury-riddled 2023-24 campaign. Instead, the Oilers got him at a bit of a below-market rate assuming he’s able to produce at the second-line level he has before. He hasn’t done that early on but they’re probably not worried about that at this point.

Henrique was expected to just be a rental pickup for Edmonton but they were able to get him to take less than he was being offered elsewhere to stick around. Given his track record, it’s a good value contract as long as he can at least hold down a spot on the third line. That said, that role will also hinder his open-market value two years from now. Podkolzin was brought in to essentially fill Dylan Holloway’s roster spot following his offer sheet in St. Louis. At this point of his career, he’s unlikely to live up to his draft billing (tenth overall in 2019) but if he can emerge as a regular in the bottom six, Edmonton will get good value from the contract and acquisition if nothing else. He’ll be arbitration-eligible when this deal expires and depth pieces with that eligibility tend to be non-tender candidates. On a cap-strapped team like the Oilers, they’ll need to keep this roster spot around this price tag whether it’s Podkolzin or someone else.

Ekholm has been a terrific addition to their back end since being acquired near the 2022 trade deadline. He has helped stabilize things defensively while also showing more in the offensive zone than he did with Nashville. That said, he’ll be 36 when his current deal expires; players that age don’t tend to get significant raises. Instead, it wouldn’t be surprising if a three or four-year deal around this price point was the end result.

Kulak has seemingly been on speculative thin ice for a couple of years now with their cap crunch but he has remained each time. As a third-pairing blueliner, this contract is a bit on the expensive side but with them being comfortable moving him into the top four when injuries arise, it has held up okay so far. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him land another deal in this range (both term and price) in 2026. Stecher has been a serviceable depth defender for several years now but as long as he’s still in more of a limited role, his price tag should continue to be around the league minimum.

It would be fair to say that Skinner has been hit or miss while on this contract with not a lot in between. Nevertheless, at the price point of a decent backup, his overall success rate has been better than that despite a slow start this season so they’ve received good value so far. If he can improve and play more consistently, it’s possible that he could double this price point but if he continues to be on the extreme ends of hot or cold, it’d be hard to see enough of a market emerge for him to get starter money. Pickard had primarily been a third-string option until partway through last year which is why his contract was still quite low for a backup. If he holds that down and is somewhat consistent, he could also possibly double this price point although Edmonton would be hard-pressed to pay that much for their second goalie.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Mattias Janmark ($1.45MM, UFA)

Janmark struggled considerably during the regular season and it looked as if they’d be moving on from him. However, he wound up playing a key supporting role during their playoff run, giving him a boost in value heading to the open market which allowed him to get a small raise, some job security, and even some trade protection. Assuming he stays in the same role as he has been lately, it’s hard to foresee him getting much more than this three years from now.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM, in 2024-25, $14MM from 2025-26 through 2032-33)
F Zach Hyman ($5.5MM through 2027-28)
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125MM through 2028-29)
D Darnell Nurse ($9.25MM through 2029-30)

Draisaitl has been one of the top scorers in the league throughout this deal but has been making a lot less than McDavid and many other NHL stars. That’s set to change when his new record-setting (for now) contract begins next season. This one almost certainly won’t be as team-friendly but it’s a price tag they had to pay to avoid him testing the open market in the summer when he’d have had multiple suitors at or even above this price point.

Hyman has found another couple of gears offensively since joining the Oilers. He set a new career-high in goals (36) in his first season with them, then obliterated it last year with 54. While that’s not sustainable, legitimate top-six forwards with some grit and a good scoring touch often get more than this in free agency. There may be some concerns in the final year or two of the deal but they’ll have received plenty of surplus value by then. Nugent-Hopkins left money on the table to stick around relative to what a consistent top-six center would have received on the open market. Again, the final year or two could be more of a concern given how long his career has been already (having played in the NHL at 18) but they’ve been getting a bargain on this deal so far.

When Holland signed Nurse to this contract, he felt he was getting an all-around number one defender locked up at market value. That hasn’t quite happened. His offensive production hasn’t gotten to that high level and with Bouchard in the fold, it’s unlikely that it will. He also has struggled when he’s in that number one role. He’s still an above-average blueliner and an important part of their back end but for the role he best fits, he’s overpaid by a few million per season.

Buyouts

G Jack Campbell ($1.1MM in 2024-25, $2.3MM in 2025-26, $2.6MM in 2026-27, $1.5MM from 2027-28 through 2029-30)
F James Neal ($1.917MM in 2024-25)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Bouchard
Worst Value: Nurse

Looking Ahead

By not matching the offer sheets to Holloway and Philip Broberg and the subsequent roster moves, GM Stan Bowman was able to get Edmonton under the cap to start the season even with Kane on LTIR. That has since changed for the time being but that should be temporary. They’re at least in a spot where they won’t be under the gun to clear out a contract when Kane is able to return. Between that and being able to bank some in-season flexibility to add help at the trade deadline, that’s not a bad spot to be considering where it could have been.

But things are about to get even tighter. The team already has more than $76MM committed to 15 players for next season and Bouchard could add another $10MM or so to that figure. Even if they filled out the rest of the roster with minimum-salaried players, they probably wouldn’t be cap-compliant even with the anticipated increase to the Upper Limit. Factor in another record-setting contract to McDavid the following year and it’s clear that Edmonton won’t be able to have the same type of secondary scoring depth that they have now for much longer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Calgary Flames

October 26, 2024 at 2:50 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Calgary Flames

Current Cap Hit: $69,288,958 (below the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Matthew Coronato (one year, $925K)
F Samuel Honzek (three years, $918K)
F Connor Zary (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Coronato: $850K
Honzek: $500K
Zary: $212.5K
Total: $1.5625MM

When he was with the Flames, Coronato’s role and production were limited and he was deployed the same way early on this year before being demoted earlier this week. With that in mind, a short-term bridge deal is likely coming his way, one that shouldn’t cost much more than his current deal. Meanwhile, his bonuses are unlikely to be met. Honzek made the team out of camp, playing his first four NHL games but has already landed on IR. It’s too early to forecast what his next deal will be while his bonuses aren’t likely to be reached unless there is a portion split off for games played.

Zary, meanwhile, is a bit more established after getting into 63 games last season where he averaged over half a point per game. He’s at a better rate in the early going this year while ranking in the top five for ATOI. Someone with this type of profile could land a longer-term agreement which would likely push past the $5MM mark. The safer bet here would be a bridge deal, however, one starting with a three. If he stays at his current pace, he should easily reach his one ‘A’ bonus.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Kevin Bahl ($1.05MM, RFA)
D Tyson Barrie ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Joel Hanley ($787.5K, UFA)
F Adam Klapka ($775K, RFA)
F Andrei Kuzmenko ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Anthony Mantha ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Brayden Pachal ($775K, UFA)
F Kevin Rooney ($1.3MM, UFA)
G Dan Vladar ($2.2MM, UFA)

Kuzmenko is one of the more intriguing potential unrestricted free agents this coming summer. His first year was quite impressive with 39 goals and 74 points but there was still some uncertainty about his repeatability, leading to this contract. That wound up being wise for Vancouver as Kuzmenko struggled last season to the point of being a cap dump to the Flames. To his credit, he played better after the swap and is off to a good start this season. If he gets back to that 30-goal mark and shows that last year was the outlier, he could still land a contract around this price point with a bit more term this time around heading into his age-29 year. But if he struggles again, something closer to $4MM might be where he lands.

Mantha didn’t have a strong market this past summer, leading to this contract where he’s hoping to play a big role and show that he’s worth a pricey long-term agreement. He’s off to a decent start early on and the perceived upside might still be there. If he rebounds, something in the $5MM range could happen; otherwise, he could stay around this price tag. Rooney has had a very limited role with the Flames over his first two-plus seasons with them. Accordingly, he should be closer to the league minimum moving forward. Klapka has seen fourth-line action in his limited NHL minutes. Accordingly, while his qualifying offer is for just under $814K, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Calgary offer a deal for the minimum with a higher AHL salary next time.

Barrie had a rough year last season and despite a track record of being a solid offensive producer from the back end, his market basically cratered to the point of needing to take a PTO. With a limited role early on, it’s hard to project much of a raise at this point unless he can secure a full-time spot. Bahl is more of a throwback stay-at-home defender and the lack of offensive numbers will hurt him. Still, he’s viewed as part of their longer-term plans so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a four or five-year deal come his way with a price tag starting with a three.

Hanley hasn’t played much in the NHL in recent years but he has also been a full-time NHL player since the 2020-21 campaign, albeit primarily in a seventh role. That’s likely to keep him around the minimum next time out, probably again on a one-way price tag. Pachal has also spent a lot of time in the sixth or seventh role and while he’s getting a chance to play more regularly in Calgary, it’s still on the third pairing. Accordingly, it’s hard to see him landing much more than $1MM next summer.

Vladar struggled considerably last season before undergoing hip surgery. If he were to repeat the same type of performance this year, he’d be looking at closer to half of this price point. However, indications are that he’s now healthier than he was the last couple of years and is off to a good start in limited action. Given the ups and downs, he’s probably not going to be able to command top dollar for a backup option but the two-year, $6.6MM deal Laurent Brossoit received from Chicago this summer might be doable if Vladar has a bounce-back year.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Rasmus Andersson ($4.55MM, UFA)
F Mikael Backlund ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Jake Bean ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Ryan Lomberg ($2MM, UFA)
D Daniil Miromanov ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Martin Pospisil ($1MM, RFA)
G Dustin Wolf ($850K, RFA)

At 35, Backlund is nearing the end of his playing days but he still played top-line minutes last season and is averaging even more early on this year. As long as he can hold down a regular spot in the top six and be his usually strong self defensively, Calgary will do well with this deal. If that holds up through next season, another short-term contract in this price range could happen.

Lomberg was brought over from Florida in free agency on a deal that will be tough to justify from a value perspective as this contract for a player coming off a seven-point season isn’t much bang for the buck. However, GM Craig Conroy identified that he wanted to add some grit and the fact it cost this much to get him suggests he had a relatively strong market. Pospisil wound up on a bridge deal after only securing a regular NHL spot last season. Even so, it’s a team-friendly agreement and if he shows he’s capable of more offensively, it will be a significant bargain. If he can move into a top-six role – something they’ve already experimented with – he could triple this (or more) in 2026.

At the time Andersson’s deal was signed, it looked a bit risky. He hadn’t recorded more than 22 points in a season and had yet to average 20 minutes a game. However, it has worked out arguably better than Calgary could have hoped for. His offensive production has improved considerably, topped by a 50-point effort in 2021-22. He has become an all-situations player who has played on the top pairing for the last few years. That alone will help give him a very strong market in free agency before even considering the fact he’s a right-shot player, the side that is always in premium demand. A max-term deal with an AAV starting with a seven looks like a given at this point, if not more.

Bean came to his hometown team after being non-tendered by Columbus, taking a pay cut in the process to do so. Once touted as a high-end prospect, he has settled in more as a depth defender to this point in his career. This price tag for a regular on the third pairing is manageable but he’ll need to find a way to at least get into a number five slot if he wants to beat $2MM again next time out. Miromanov was acquired and quickly extended last season, giving him some security and Calgary a low-cost two-year look at a player who had shown flashes of upside in his limited action with Vegas. At this point, establishing himself as a full-timer is the first goal, one that would allow him to stay around this price tag. If he works his way into a fourth or fifth role between now and then, doubling this (or a bit more) could be doable.

Wolf already looks like quite a bargain given some of the other contracts promising but unproven goalies have signed recently (with an AAV higher than Wolf’s total contract value). He’s their goalie of the future and if he locks down the starting role by then, his next deal should vault past the $5MM mark at a minimum.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Blake Coleman ($4.9MM, UFA)

Coleman had a breakout performance last season, notching 30 goals while passing the 40-point mark for the first time of his career. From a value perspective, this price tag would be a bargain if he could maintain that type of output. Of course, his point total is usually in the 30s and at that level, this is an above-market contract. That said, with the role he fills and Calgary’s cap space, it’s not an overpayment they’re probably too concerned about at this point.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Jonathan Huberdeau ($10.5MM through 2030-31)
F Nazem Kadri ($7MM through 2028-29)
F Yegor Sharangovich ($3.1MM in 2024-25, $5.75MM from 2025-26 through 2029-30)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($6.25MM through 2030-31)

When the Flames picked up Huberdeau in the Matthew Tkachuk trade, it’s fair to say that a bit of regression was expected after he put up 115 points. But it wouldn’t be fair to say that having his point total cut by more than half was the expectation. After being a premier playmaker at times in Florida, he hasn’t found his footing in Calgary though he’s off to a better start this season. At a minimum, he needs to get back to a top-line level of production. From there, he needs to get to the upper echelon of scorers to provide a reasonable return on his deal. In the meantime, his contract now stands as one of the worst in the NHL from a value perspective.

Kadri hasn’t been able to get back to the same level of production he had in his final year with Colorado which helped earn him this contract. He did, however, record the second-highest point total of his career last season and is still logging top-line minutes. In the short term, he should provide fair value on this deal but that’s unlikely to be the case for the final couple of years when he’s in his late-30s. Sharangovich had a great first season with Calgary, blowing past his career highs offensively to help earn his extension. He played an all-situations role in the top six last season and as long as he continues to do so and produces at a similar level to the 31 goals and 59 points he had a year ago, they should get a good return on his new deal and a great return on his current expiring pact.

Weegar was the other key piece in the Tkachuk-Huberdeau swap. His first season saw him take a step back but last year, he had the best year of his career while notching 20 goals and 32 assists. Given the demand for a right-shot defender, getting a top-pairing one locked up at this price tag is good value for Calgary and while he might have to play a lesser role by its conclusion, they should benefit from it being a below-market contract for most of the deal.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

F Jacob Markstrom ($1.875MM through 2025-26)

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Wolf
Worst Value: Huberdeau

Looking Ahead

With the Flames operating not too far above the cap floor for this season, cap space won’t be an issue for them for a while. They have ample room to fill the center spot they’re looking to add or to take on money to help facilitate a trade. If they wind up sellers, the $65MM floor could come into play which will be something to keep an eye on.

Calgary is presently near the beginning of a rebuilding cycle and there aren’t any big-ticket contracts on the immediate horizon with Kuzmenko being the most prominent one to deal with next summer while Andersson and Wolf will be in line for big raises in 2026. Even with that, they’re in very good shape from a salary cap perspective and should be for the foreseeable future.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Anaheim Ducks

October 18, 2024 at 7:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Anaheim Ducks

Current Cap Hit: $68,314.167 (below the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Leo Carlsson (two years, $950K)
G Lukas Dostal (one year, $812.5K)
F Cutter Gauthier (two years, $950K)
D Tristan Luneau (three years, $865K)
F Mason McTavish (one year, $894K)
D Pavel Mintyukov (two years, $918K)
D Olen Zellweger (two years, $844K)

Potential Bonuses:
Carlsson: $3.225MM
Gauthier: $950K
Luneau: $80K
McTavish: $2.5MM
Mintyukov: $800K
Total: $7.555MM (exceeds the 7.5% cap by $955K; that amount counts as a direct charge against the salary cap)

Anaheim took things slow with Carlsson last season, limiting him to just 55 games. However, he played big minutes in those appearances and is seeing similar ice time early on this year. That gives him a good chance to meet $1MM of his ‘A’ bonuses while the rest are unlikely. We’ve seen the price tag for top young centers approach the $8MM mark post-entry-level and at this point, there’s little reason to think Carlsson shouldn’t be in that range as well. Gauthier is in his first full NHL season after turning pro late last year. Anaheim has high hopes for him as well although he’s obviously less proven at this point, making a second contract much harder to forecast. His bonuses are also of the ‘A’ variety and could be achievable depending on the role he carves out for himself.

McTavish is the other young middleman that GM Pat Verbeek will be looking to sign in the relatively near future. His first two full NHL seasons saw him just surpass the 40-point mark but being the third-overall selection, it’s fair to say that he’s still envisioned as being part of their long-term core. His numbers at this point come in a bit below Matthew Beniers (who signed for seven years and $50MM on an extension that begins next season). That would peg a long-term price tag at or just below $7MM (closer to $7.5MM on an eight-year agreement). Alternatively, if they go with a bridge contract, that type of deal would be closer to $4MM on a two-year pact, $4.5MM or so on a three-year agreement. He has $850K of ‘A’ bonuses in his deal and reasonably could max out on those with a strong showing this season.

On the back end, Mintyukov is someone they have high hopes for as another high draft pick. He had a solid rookie campaign and is logging heavy minutes early on this year. The market for some top blueliners coming off their entry-level deals who aren’t elite offensively has pushed past $8MM recently. It’s not unfathomable that Mintyukov gets to that level over the next two seasons. He has a good chance of reaching his ‘A’ bonuses based on his early-season usage.

Luneau missed almost all of last season which doesn’t help from a development perspective but he didn’t burn the first year of his deal either. For this year, the priority will be simply getting regular game reps which makes projecting his next deal all but impossible at this point. His bonuses are games-played based so staying healthy will allow him to reach at least most of those. As for Zellweger, he was dominant at the AHL level last year and held his own in limited minutes. A bridge agreement is likely for him and with what’s likely to be decent offensive numbers, it should push past at least $2MM.

Dostal has been thrown to the wolves at times but has put up more than respectable numbers over his first couple of NHL seasons. Is he their starter of the future though? That’s not a given so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him land a bridge deal. Given the contracts handed out recently to Yaroslav Askarov ($2MM AAV) and Jesper Wallstedt ($2.2MM AAV), Dostal’s contract should come in at a higher rate than that.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Brian Dumoulin ($3.15MM, UFA)
F Robby Fabbri ($4MM, UFA)
F Brett Leason ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Isac Lundestrom ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Brock McGinn ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Urho Vaakanainen ($1.1MM, RFA)
G James Reimer ($1MM, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($3.65MM, UFA)

Fabbri was picked up from Detroit in a cap-clearing move over the summer which wasn’t necessarily the worst outcome for him as he’ll play a bigger role with the Ducks than he otherwise would have. Even so, given his long injury history, his next deal should check in closer to the $2.75MM range even though he consistently averages over half a point per game when he’s in the lineup. Vatrano found another gear offensively last season with 37 goals, positioning himself nicely for the type of long-term deal that has eluded him thus far in his career. He’ll be in his age-31 year next season so a max-term pact is off the table but five or six years could be doable. If he can produce at a similar rate this year, that contract should push well past the $6MM mark.

McGinn is a serviceable fourth liner whose contract pays him more than that. That’s likely to be corrected next summer when his deal should come in around half of this amount. Lundestrom might be at the end of his rope with Anaheim if things don’t go well this year. He took a pay cut to avoid being non-tendered this summer and until he can establish himself as a consistent top-nine center, he’ll be hard-pressed to land a sizable increase. Leason, meanwhile, was non-tendered this summer to avoid arbitration eligibility but returned with a $250K raise in salary. Another double-digit goal performance this season would help his value and push it closer to the $1.5MM range but he remains a non-tender risk nonetheless.

Dumoulin was also brought in with Seattle needing to clear salary. His first year away from Pittsburgh wasn’t the greatest although he’ll at least benefit from likely a slightly bigger role in Anaheim. Even so, his market wasn’t strong last time out and probably isn’t going to be much better barring an improved performance this year. He could still land something around this price tag but a big raise is unlikely. Vaakanainen has been more of a depth defender at this point of his career and has already been scratched this season. He was non-tendered last summer to avoid arbitration rights and probably is heading for a similar outcome this time around, even if he’s worth something around this price point on the open market.

Reimer was picked up off waivers as injury insurance, sparing him from the third-string role he was heading for in Buffalo (at least for the time being). At 36, he’s going to be going year-to-year moving forward, likely in the lower-end backup or third-string role so this price point is where his next deal should land as well.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Cam Fowler ($6.5MM, UFA)
D Radko Gudas ($4MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Jackson LaCombe ($925K, RFA)
F Trevor Zegras ($5.75MM, RFA)

Zegras and the Ducks couldn’t work out a long-term deal, settling on this bridge agreement last year. The first season didn’t go well, to put it lightly as he battled injuries and ineffectiveness. At this point, it’s hard to project a significant increase for his next contract unless he’s able to get back to his previous 60-point form. Johnston is a fourth-line enforcer and with a lot of teams not carrying those, that limits his long-term value. Still, as long as there are at least some teams open to deploying one, another contract around this price should be doable.

Fowler’s value depends on the eye of the beholder. He’s certainly not a true number one defenseman but he has held that role for Anaheim for several years now and has done relatively well with it. Given the minutes he covers, his price tag is solid value relative to others in that situation. But if he was deployed in a more optimal spot (either second or third on the depth chart which is where he’d land on a lot of other teams), the contract moves somewhere between market value and a slight overpayment. Fowler will be 34 when his next deal starts and if he’s elsewhere in a lesser role at that time, it’s hard to see a raise coming his way. Instead, another multi-year deal around this price tag (in a higher cap environment) might be where he lands.

The fact that Gudas landed four years at this price point after primarily playing on the third pairing raised some eyebrows but it has worked so far for Anaheim. The new captain has moved into the top four and handled it relatively well. Having said that, he’ll be 36 when this deal expires so again, a raise isn’t overly likely. A two-year deal around this price point could be, however. LaCombe signed what’s frankly a below-market bridge contract for someone who averaged over 19 minutes a game the year before. However, he at least secured a one-way salary (which is notable given that he’s still waiver-exempt) while he’ll have arbitration rights next time out. If he can shoulder a similar workload for the next two years, tripling this price tag could be doable.

Signed Through 2026-27

G John Gibson ($6.4MM, UFA)
F Alex Killorn ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Ryan Strome ($5MM, UFA)

Killorn was a surprise signing in free agency last summer, both in terms of Anaheim getting him and the contract he received. The idea was to add a quality veteran who could play in the top six and work with the young forward group. But things didn’t go quite as planned in year one and, already 35, it’s hard to forecast a sharp improvement. And considering he’ll be entering his age-38 year in 2027-28, this might be his last contract. Strome hasn’t been able to match the output he had with the Rangers but now has five straight seasons of more than 40 points under his belt. Given the annual high demand for centers, he could land a similar contract if he was on the open market now so thus far, the Ducks are getting a fair return on his agreement.

It wasn’t that long ago that Gibson was viewed as one of the top goalies in the league with his contract looking like a bargain relative to other top-paid starters. But that has flipped in recent years. His save percentage in the past five seasons combined is just .900, a mark that’s below league average. Having someone below average in that mark making top-ten money isn’t ideal. It’s possible that a change of scenery could allow him to bounce back to a point but it’s unlikely he’d rebound to a level of play that would make this a team-friendly pact.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

October 12, 2024 at 4:03 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia. We’re currently covering the Metropolitan Division, next up is the Capitals.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $98,665,965 (above the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Hendrix Lapierre (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Lapierre: $445K

Lapierre spent the bulk of last season with Washington with some short stints with AHL Hershey mixed in. Most of that time was in a bottom-six role, one he’s likely to have this season as well which means his bonuses are unlikely to be met, aside from possibly any games-played ones. A bridge agreement should be the outcome for Lapierre who, if he stays in the bottom six for most of this season, could possibly double his current price tag next summer.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Alexander Alexeyev ($825K, RFA)
F Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2MM, UFA)
D Ethan Bear ($2.0625MM, UFA)
D Jakob Chychrun ($4.6MM, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($1.3MM, UFA)
G Charlie Lindgren ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Andrew Mangiapane ($5.8MM, UFA)
D Dylan McIlrath ($775K, UFA)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Taylor Raddysh ($1MM, UFA)
G Logan Thompson ($766.7K, UFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($775K, UFA)

Let’s get Backstrom and Oshie out of the way together as they’re in the same situation. Backstrom remains on LTIR where he was for most of last season while it’s unlikely that Oshie will be able to suit up this season either. GM Chris Patrick’s early-offseason spending was a strong indicator that the team doesn’t believe Oshie will be cleared to play.

Mangiapane was one of the additions through that early spending. After scoring 35 goals in 2021-22 (yielding this contract), he has just 31 in the two years since then although he has reached at least 40 points each time. At this point, a small pay cut could be coming but if he can even get back to 30 goals with his new team, Mangiapane could push past $6MM next summer.

Dowd has gone from being a regular fourth liner a few years ago to a regular third liner, pushing past 20 points in three straight years now. A center who can kill penalties, he’s in line to potentially add another million per season or so to that number, albeit on a short-term deal as he’ll be 35 next summer. Raddysh was non-tendered this summer, resulting in him looking for a short-term rebound deal. Only a year removed from a 20-goal campaign, he could double this next summer if he can get back to the 15-goal mark or so. Vrana had to earn a deal the hard way through a PTO but landed one earlier this week. After bouncing around a bit in recent years, it’s hard to see him commanding much more than the minimum unless he has a big season offensively.

Chychrun was brought in via an early July trade to help bolster the back end. He doesn’t produce enough to be a high-end threat offensively but he has reached the double-digit goal mark in three of the last five years and reached the 40-point plateau last season as well. If he stays in that range while continuing to play heavy minutes, his next deal could surpass $7MM on a long-term agreement.

Bear was a midseason signing last year that hasn’t panned out yet. After exiting the Player Assistance Program over the offseason, he wound up not making the team and cleared waivers earlier this month. He’ll carry a pro-rated $912.5K cap charge while with AHL Hershey and if he’s there all season, he’ll be looking at something closer to the minimum next summer. Alexeyev has had a limited role so far in his NHL action, primarily playing part-time on the third pairing. His qualifying offer checks in just below $920K with arbitration rights next summer but Washington won’t be able to afford that roster spot costing much more than that. McIlrath, meanwhile, has primarily been in the minors in recent years and accordingly, his next deal should come in at or near the minimum salary again.

Lindgren was a late bloomer but since joining Washington two years ago, he has established himself as at least a capable NHL netminder. Last season, he wrestled away the number one job from Darcy Kuemper which will only help his cause in negotiations. Still, with a limited track record (just 110 career NHL appearances heading into the season), an early extension isn’t likely – both sides probably want to wait and see what happens – but if he has a similar year to this one, he should earn at least $3MM on a multi-year agreement next summer. If it’s another year as a true starter, the recent five-year, $25MM contract given to Joey Daccord could come up in talks.

Thompson also has somewhat of a limited track record in terms of experience but is also a few years younger with better career numbers after three strong seasons in Vegas. Accordingly, it wouldn’t be shocking if his camp is already eyeing something close to Daccord’s new deal if and when extension talks get underway. The cheapest goalie in the NHL, Thompson’s next deal will certainly change that soon enough.

Signed Through 2025-26

D John Carlson ($8MM, UFA)
F Brandon Duhaime ($1.85MM, UFA)
D Martin Fehervary ($2.675MM, RFA)
F Connor McMichael ($2.1MM, RFA)
F Sonny Milano ($1.9MM, UFA)
F Alex Ovechkin ($9.5MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($3MM, UFA)

Ovechkin is one of the top scorers in NHL history and even with a very high AAV for most of his career, he has lived up to it. That might be ending soon strictly from a bang-for-buck perspective. The 39-year-old had the lowest full-season production of his career and players generally don’t have a resurgent year at that age. That said, with all he has done for them and the chase for the all-time record, the Capitals won’t be too concerned if they’re not getting top value here.

McMichael received a bridge deal which was a pretty obvious outcome considering he spent most of 2022-23 in the minors. But if he can stay in the top six regularly, he could double that next time out with arbitration eligibility and if it looks like he’s a core piece for the future by then, a long-term deal could push past $5MM. Milano managed 15 goals in 49 games last season which isn’t bad production for that price tag but the book on him in recent years is that he can be effective only in a limited role. That has hindered his market before and probably will next time out unless something changes over the next couple of years. Duhaime is a crash-and-bang winger who only managed five goals last season, making this price tag seemingly a bit high for that role but perhaps a change of scenery will allow him to contribute a bit more offensively which would set him up to pass $2MM next time out.

While Carlson didn’t light up the scoresheet as much as he has in the past, he did reach the double-digit goal mark for the sixth time in the last seven years last season and logged a career high in ice time at nearly 26 minutes a night. That type of playing time is unsustainable for a 34-year-old but he doesn’t need to play that much to justify this deal. He remains an all-situations type of player which should give this contract a good chance to hold up value-wise over the final two seasons. It’s not inconceivable that he lands a small raise next time out although the likelier outcome is more of a medium-term agreement that would allow the AAV to be a bit lower.

As for van Riemsdyk, he has found a home in Washington, going from being a player toward the end of the depth chart to spending a lot of time on the second pairing. This price tag for someone in that role is good value. He’ll be entering his age-35 year on his next contract so he might be hard-pressed to get much more than this in 2026. Fehervary, meanwhile, is on his bridge deal and has similarly played a lot on the second pairing. Given that he’s still 25, he could push past the $4MM mark if things go well, perhaps $5MM on a long-term pact. His current deal is front-loaded, carrying just a $1.075MM qualifying offer two years from now.

Signed Through 2026-27

None

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Pierre-Luc Dubois ($8.5MM through 2030-31)
F Aliaksei Protas ($3.375MM through 2028-29)
D Matt Roy ($5.75MM through 2029-30)
D Rasmus Sandin ($4.6MM through 2028-29)
F Dylan Strome ($5MM through 2030-31)
F Tom Wilson ($6.5MM through 2030-31)

Washington surprised many by taking a swing on Dubois who had a tough year with Los Angeles in the first season of that agreement. It’s a contract that looked to be above-market from the moment it was signed but the hope that he could become a consistent top-two center with size is tantalizing and likely led to the move. It could work out or it could become a big anchor on their books. It was a high-risk, high-reward play. The same can’t be said for Wilson. Power forwards get above-market contracts and this is certainly that, especially for someone who is starting a seven-year deal at 30. There’s a lot of risk in this move and the reward potential isn’t particularly high unless he can get back to being at least a 20-goal scorer.

It took Strome a while to establish himself as a reliable top-six forward but he has done just that since joining the Capitals. This contract looked a bit risky when it was signed as it was coming off just one strong season but now, after slightly besting those numbers last season, it might hold up as one of their better deals in a hurry. Protas’ pact was a bit surprising given that he has just 13 career goals in 169 games but he took a step forward offensively last season and has the size to make an impact. It’s a bit of a leap of faith but even if he stays around the 30-point mark (which he nearly reached last year), they’ll do fine with this contract.

Roy was Washington’s big splash in free agency to help shore up the back end. He’s someone who flew under the radar a bit in Los Angeles but now with a pricey contract to play top-pairing minutes most nights, that should change. He’s no longer a bargain as he was the last couple of years but this is a good deal for a number two defender as long as he can have success in that role with the Caps. Sandin’s contract is one where it will serve as a bit of an overpayment at the beginning with the hope that it will flip to a club-friendly agreement within a year or two. The addition of Chychrun seems likely to limit his playing time which could keep this contract on the pricey side for a little while longer but eventually, he should get back to playing in a top-four role.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None – they retained $3.9MM on Evgeny Kuznetsov’s deal in last season’s trade with Carolina but that came off the books when he agreed to mutually terminate the agreement with the Hurricanes this past offseason.

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Thompson
Worst Value: Dubois

Looking Ahead

Having over $14MM on LTIR gives the Capitals a cushion to work with even though they’re well over the salary cap. As things stand, they’re around $3.8MM below their revised spending ceiling. Notably, that doesn’t get larger as the season progresses so they have that much now or at the trade deadline if their roster stays as is. Still, that gives them ample insurance against injuries and if they’re in mix for the stretch run, they should have an opportunity to add a piece.

Looking to next season, they have $62.75MM in commitments, giving Patrick some room to work with. However, a good chunk of that will go toward re-signing their goalies, a new deal for Chychrun, and either re-signing or replacing Mangiapane, a top-six forward. Still, they’re not in too bad of shape. Ovechkin and Carlson are up the following summer, opening up more flexibility although the concern of Dubois and Wilson’s deals potentially not aging well will linger.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

October 5, 2024 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $88,037,434 (above the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Rutger McGroarty (three years, $950K)

Potential Bonuses
McGroarty: $500K

McGroarty was recently acquired from Winnipeg after the winger told the Jets he wouldn’t sign with them. He should have an opportunity to push for a roster spot right away (or at least be the first recall from the minors). Bonus-wise, the exact structure of the $500K isn’t publicized but it’s likely two ‘A’ bonuses ($425K in total) and $75K in games played. If he’s a regular, he should get the games played one at a minimum while his role will go a long way toward determining if he has a shot at one of the ‘A’ bonuses.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

F Anthony Beauvillier ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Lars Eller ($2.45MM, UFA)
F Cody Glass ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Matthew Nieto ($900K, UFA)
F Drew O’Connor ($925K, UFA)
D Marcus Pettersson ($4.025MM, UFA)
F Jesse Puljujarvi ($800K, UFA)
D Matt Grzelcyk ($2.75MM, UFA)

Glass was acquired from Nashville in a cap-clearing move from them this summer. He’s only one season removed from a 35-point effort but struggled last year. He’ll need to get back to his 2022-23 level if he has a shot at getting a qualifying offer, one that would carry arbitration rights. As things stand, he’s a non-tender candidate. Eller remains a serviceable third-line center most nights, a role he has held for most of his career. However, he’ll be 36 when this deal is up and with offensive production usually under 35 points, he’s probably going to be going year-to-year moving forward at or slightly below this price tag. Beauvillier is also coming off a rough year between three separate teams, resulting in a $2.75MM pay cut. There’s room for him to rebound and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him land a multi-year deal next summer with a price tag above $2MM at a minimum.

O’Connor is coming off of his best season offensively by far after notching 33 points in 2023-24. While both sides will want to see if this is repeatable before approaching extension talks, if he can maintain those numbers, he could triple that price tag heading into next season. Nieto missed most of last season due to injury and is month-to-month heading into the start of the season, meaning he could land on LTIR to get the Penguins cap compliant. Given the injuries, he’ll probably be looking at a contract close to this price tag again next summer. Puljujarvi was a later-season signing last year and at this point, is simply looking to establish himself as a full-time NHL player once again. A small raise could be doable if he does that.

Pettersson is now the most notable pending UFA on the roster. He logged over 22 minutes a game last season while reaching 30 points for the first time, certainly a positive heading into early negotiations. He’ll be entering his age-29 year next season so his next deal could push past the $5MM mark on a longer-term agreement. Grzelcyk is looking to rebuild some value after a tough season in Boston. If he does, he could get back to the near-$3.7MM AAV from his past deal.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Noel Acciari ($2MM, UFA)
D Sebastian Aho ($775K, UFA)
F Michael Bunting ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Kevin Hayes ($3.571MM, UFA)*
F Blake Lizotte ($1.85MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($6.1MM, UFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($2.5MM, UFA)

*-Philadelphia is retaining an additional $3.571MM on Hayes’ contract.

Malkin’s contract went to the wire two years ago and it wound up being a case of term being used to keep the cap hit down. So far, he has provided a very strong return on the deal but he’s now 38 and showing signs of slowing down. That could make the final couple of seasons a bit tougher to deal with from a value perspective.

Bunting was acquired at the trade deadline as part of the Jake Guentzel trade and seemed to fit in better with the Penguins than he did in Carolina, coming close to averaging a point per game following the swap. Part of the challenge last summer for him was trying to argue that he could produce away from Toronto’s top line where he had spent the bulk of his still-limited NHL career (his first two full seasons at the top level). But Bunting managed to produce at a similar rate last year and if he has a couple more seasons around that level of production (he had 55 points in 2023-24), he should have a case at a longer-term deal next time out at a price tag closer to the $6MM mark.

Hayes was a faceoff ace for St. Louis last season but saw his point total nearly cut in half compared to 2022-23, resulting in the Blues parting with a second-round pick to shed the rest of the contract. Assuming he stays in a bottom-six role, his Pittsburgh portion of the contract is about what his market value might be in 2026. Acciari had a quiet first season with the Penguins on their fourth line. He’ll need a bounce-back effort to have a shot at matching this price tag even though he’s above average at the faceoff dot. Lizotte, meanwhile, was non-tendered by the Kings after a quiet season but his track record as an effective bottom-six piece helped earn this agreement. He’ll need to get back to scoring double-digit goals per season if he wants to cross the $2MM mark.

Aho came over from the Islanders in free agency, getting a one-way salary for the fourth and fifth straight seasons. Until he locks down a full-time top-six spot, however, he’s likely to stay close to the league minimum moving forward.

Nedeljkovic took over the starting job down the stretch last season, helping him earn this deal to avoid testing free agency. He has been hit or miss throughout his still relatively brief NHL career and will need two more seasons like last year to have a shot at getting back to that upper echelon of platoon options.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Sidney Crosby ($8.7MM, UFA)
D Erik Karlsson ($9.999MM, UFA)*

*-San Jose is retaining an additional $1.5MM on Karlsson’s contract.

Many expected Crosby to sign a contract extension on July 1st but it wound up taking more than two full months before he put pen to paper on this deal, maintaining the same cap hit he has had since 2008. He’s entering the final season of a now-illegal 12-year contract and at the time it was signed, some wondered if those last couple of years could be tough from a value perspective given that he’s entering his age-37 season. Considering he’s coming off yet another season of averaging more than a point per game (something he’s done in all 19 years), those concerns were unfounded, helping him earn this extension.

Karlsson, as expected, wasn’t able to match the 101 points he put up in his final season with San Jose. However, with 56, he was still well above average in that regard. It’s going to be next to impossible for the 34-year-old to provide surplus value on his cap hit but as long as he’s still one of the higher-end offensive players among NHL blueliners, they’ll do okay value-wise. He’s not a $10MM player at this point but he’s not necessarily too far off that mark either.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

D Ryan Graves ($4.5MM through 2028-29)
G Tristan Jarry ($5.375MM through 2027-28)
D Kris Letang ($6.1MM through 2027-28)
F Rickard Rakell ($5MM through 2027-28)
F Bryan Rust ($5.125MM through 2027-28)

Rust has become a consistent and dependable secondary scorer, notching at least 20 goals in five straight years including a career-best 28 last season. Someone with that type of offensive track record would be passing at least $6MM on the open market although it’s worth noting he’ll be 36 when this deal ends. Rakell’s first full season in Pittsburgh (the first on this contract) was a strong one but he took a step back last season, dropping to 37 points. He has only passed 50 points twice in the last seven years which makes this deal a bit on the pricey side unless he can get back to that level of production.

Letang has been a strong offensive producer from the back end for most of his 18-year NHL career and getting that at this price tag is pretty good, for now at least. However, he’ll be turning 41 when this deal ends. At some point, Pittsburgh will have to scale back his minutes with his production dropping accordingly which will turn this into a bad-value contract. That point isn’t coming this season, however. Graves had a particularly rough first season with the Penguins. Signed to stabilize their back end, he struggled while playing a more limited role. He’ll need to find his form again or this could be a drag on their books for a while.

Jarry’s price tag is reasonable for a starting goalie. However, he found himself benched down the stretch last season, leading some to wonder if he’ll be in more of a platoon situation with Nedeljkovic (when he’s able to return from injury). This would be an above-market deal for a platoon netminder but if he can reclaim the outright starting job and make 50 or so starts per season, this deal should hold up okay.

Buyouts

D Jack Johnson ($917K through 2025-26)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Jeff Petry ($1.563MM in 2024-25)
F Reilly Smith ($1.25MM in 2024-25)

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Crosby
Worst Value: Graves

Looking Ahead

It won’t be hard for the Penguins to get into cap compliance with Nieto moving to LTIR or the team returning to carrying two goalies when Nedeljkovic returns. However, the fact that an injury puts them this tight to the cap means they’ll be hard-pressed to bank any sort of significant in-season cap space unless they elect to carry fewer than the maximum of 23 players.

They project to be one of the teams with above-average flexibility after that. While they have nearly $69MM on the books for next season already, Pettersson is the only contract of significance to contend with. More than $23MM comes off the books the following summer and they only have five players that are truly signed long-term. GM Kyle Dubas has one of the oldest rosters once again heading into this season but the opportunity to reshape it further is coming fast.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Philadelphia Flyers

October 3, 2024 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Hit: $84,829,763 (below the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Tyson Foerster (one year, $863K)
F Matvei Michkov (three years, $950K)

Potential Bonuses
Michkov: $3.3MM

Michkov was able to get out of his contract two years early to the surprise of many, enabling him to come to North America this season. Projected to be a key cog of their rebuild, he’s likely someone they’ll want to sign long-term by the time this deal is up. From a bonus perspective, he has $1MM in ‘A’ bonuses, four at $250K apiece. If he plays the prominent role it looks like he will this season, those could be reachable although the ‘B’ bonus is highly unlikely to be met. Foerster’s first full NHL campaign was a solid one with 20 goals. That said, he’d need a significant breakout to bypass a bridge deal, especially with this management group generally leaning toward using those. In that case, something around the $3MM mark is where his next contract might land.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

F Noah Cates ($2.625MM, RFA)
F Morgan Frost ($2.1MM, RFA)
D Erik Johnson ($1MM, UFA)
G Cal Petersen ($5MM, UFA)
D Cam York ($1.6MM, RFA)

Cates was someone who received a recent bridge contract, a move that looks wise on Philadelphia’s part given his struggles last season. He’ll need to get back to at least his rookie-season numbers (38 points in 82 games) to have a shot at a qualifying offer when he’ll have arbitration rights as well. Frost was no stranger to the rumor mill last season but still wound up with his second straight season of more than 40 points. If he hangs around that number again, he could double his $2.4MM qualifying offer on his next deal, one that likely will buy out some UFA-eligible years.

York finished off last season on a high note, providing plenty of optimism heading into this season. Yet another player who is on a bridge agreement, if he plays at the level that he finished at last year, tripling this price tag wouldn’t be out of the question while quadrupling it on a long-term deal could be doable as well. Johnson was picked up at the deadline to give them a serviceable veteran at the back of their lineup and was extended to fill that role for this season. He’ll be going year to year from here and considering he’s best served as a sixth defender, it’s unlikely he could command much more than this next time around.

Petersen has already cleared waivers and he’ll once again play in Lehigh Valley where he’ll carry a slightly reduced cap hit of $3.85MM. It’s safe to say he won’t come anywhere near that next time around; a six-figure deal is more likely.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Bobby Brink ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Nicolas Deslauriers ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Jamie Drysdale ($2.3MM, RFA)
G Samuel Ersson ($1.45MM, RFA)
G Ivan Fedotov ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Scott Laughton ($3MM, UFA)
F Ryan Poehling ($1.9MM, UFA)
D Yegor Zamula ($1.7MM, RFA)

When Laughton signed this contract at the 2021 trade deadline (taking himself out of trade talks in the process), it seemed like somewhat of a team-friendly deal at the time. It still is today. The 30-year-old isn’t the biggest offensive threat (only reaching 40 points once in his career) but is a solid defensive player. He should be able to add at least $1MM to this next time out on another multi-year agreement. Poehling accepted this deal as a midseason extension back in January, giving him a bit of stability after starting the year on his third team in as many seasons. He’s coming off his best offensive output (28 points) but will need to show that’s repeatable if he wants to get into that next tier of money.

Deslauriers got more money and term than many expected for an enforcer but his track record of scoring a bit more than a typical tough guy helped his marketability. That’s a harder sell now at this point of his career coming off a one-goal, four-point campaign. He still can fill that role but with the decline in production and the fact he’ll be 35 when this contract expires, it’s hard to see him getting this on his next deal. Brink is yet another player on a bridge deal after a season that saw him establish himself as a regular. He’ll have arbitration rights next time out and between that and ideally two more years of being a full-timer, he should at least get past $2MM, obviously more if he becomes more of a contributor offensively.

Drysdale was the key piece coming to Philadelphia in the Cutter Gauthier trade but as was the case at times in Anaheim, injuries limited him. He’s someone who has shown flashes of being an above-average player at the NHL level and if he puts it together and stays healthy, pushing past $6MM isn’t out of the question. But, if injuries continue to be an issue, a second one-year bridge agreement might be the safest play, one that would eclipse $3MM with arbitration rights. Zamula inked this bridge deal in early July after locking down a regular role last season. He’ll need to at least move past being more of a fifth or sixth defender over the next two seasons since his offensive game is somewhat limited (which will hurt him in an arbitration hearing). Notably, his qualifying offer in 2026 is only $1.4MM since signing bonus money doesn’t count in calculating those offers.

After a long battle to get him to North America, Fedotov debuted late in the season (although he struggled in limited action) and quickly received this two-year agreement, a sign of the faith the team has in him. He’ll need to establish himself as at least a 1B type of goaltender to hang around this price tag but if he plays up to expectations, this deal will be a team-friendly one for Philadelphia. The early extension to Ersson raised some eyebrows but after becoming their starter, it’s a move that looks great for the Flyers already. He will have one RFA-eligible season remaining once this deal expires and if he’s still in the starting role, it stands to reason that his next contract should be at least three times this one.

Signed Through 2026-27

D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Garnet Hathaway ($2.375MM in 2024-25, $2.4MM in 2025-26 and 2026-27, UFA)
D Rasmus Ristolainen ($5.1MM, UFA)

Hathaway had a good first season for the Flyers while splitting time between the third and fourth lines. Rather than see what his market value would be this coming summer, he accepted an early extension at pretty much the same money. That gets him under contract through his age-35 season and at that point, it would be tough predicting that he’d get more than that if he’s still in that role. Ellis, meanwhile, will remain on LTIR, giving the Flyers the ability to spend above the cap if needed.

Ristolainen remains one of the more polarizing defensemen in the league. He’s someone who has played big minutes in all situations in the past and his contract is one where the price tag suggests that he should be in a second or third role. However, that wasn’t the case last year. His ice time – when healthy – was much more limited than usual and he responded with a decent performance in that role. It’s probably not enough to give him any standalone trade value but if it’s a case where less is more for Ristolainen, the Flyers could still get at least a bit of value on this contract, albeit on an above-market price point relative to last season’s ice time.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Sean Couturier ($7.75MM through 2029-30)
F Joel Farabee ($5MM through 2027-28)
F Travis Konecny ($5.5MM in 2024-25, $8.75MM from 2025-26 through 2032-33)
D Travis Sanheim ($6.25MM through 2030-31)
D Nick Seeler ($2.7MM through 2027-28)
F Owen Tippett ($6.2MM through 2031-32)

Konecny has turned the corner offensively over the last two seasons. He averaged just over a point per game in 2022-23 (though he missed 22 games) and then followed that up with career bests in goals (33) and points (68) last season, giving him some leverage in negotiations. His new deal is on the high side for someone who hasn’t reached 70 points yet but there’s an expectation that he should reach that point soon. If he can find another gear offensively, this should hold up relatively well. Otherwise, it’ll be an overpayment.

When Couturier signed this contract, he was coming off a quality season offensively (although he missed nearly half of it due to injury). The hope was that he could at least maintain an above-average level of offensive production for a few years and that coupled with his strong defensive game would give them at least a few seasons of value on this deal. That hasn’t happened so far. In the first three years, he has missed more games than he’s played and last season (when he was largely healthy), he struggled, was moved down the lineup, and became the first captain to be healthy scratched (not for rest) in a decade. He’s still a serviceable player, no doubt, but this price tag is on the high side for someone trending toward being more of a middle-six piece than a top-liner.

Farabee signed his old deal when Chuck Fletcher was still in charge and considering the promise he showed in his first two seasons, the move made sense. His development has had some ups and downs since then but after putting up 50 points last year, the contract is trending towards a team-friendly one if he even maintains that type of production. Tippett, meanwhile, is one of the few long-term deals given out by GM Daniel Briere. Power forwards, given their level of scarcity, tend to get bigger money relative to their production and that’s where things fall for him now. But he’s not far off the 30-goal mark and at 25, there’s still a runway to improvement production-wise. It might be a short-term slight overpayment but in the end, this should be a team-friendly pact fairly quickly.

Sanheim took a big step forward offensively last season, one that skews the evaluation of this deal to an extent as he struggled in that department in the first year of the contract in 2022-23. Philadelphia is counting on him to play big minutes, especially on the penalty kill and that isn’t going to be in question moving forward. If he can stay at this level (44 points) offensively, it’ll be a very team-friendly deal quickly. If he reverts to 2022-23 (17 points), it’ll be an overpayment. The likeliest outcome is that his production lands somewhere in the middle, making it a pretty fair deal overall. Seeler’s price tag seemed a bit high for someone strictly on the third pairing although some of the comparable contracts handed out in free agency arguably make this a team-friendly pact relative to those. If he can have the same impact as last year moving forward, they’ll do alright with this contract.

Buyouts

F Cam Atkinson ($2.358MM in 2024-25, $1.758MM in 2025-26)
D Tony DeAngelo ($1.667MM in 2024-25)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Kevin Hayes ($3.571MM through 2025-26)

Pending Grievances

F Ryan Johansen

The Flyers terminated Johansen’s deal citing a material breach but didn’t go into any specifics from there. The NHLPA has formally filed a grievance to contest it. For the time being, his $4MM cap charge (and Nashville’s $4MM) is off their books but all or part of that could be restored pending the outcome of the hearing. Depending on what happens there, that could materially affect their cap situation for this season.

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Ersson
Worst Value: Couturier

Looking Ahead

For now, the Flyers enter the season with ample cap space and flexibility pending the Johansen situation. If it holds (or there’s a lower-cost settlement), Philadelphia should be able to absorb any of the bonuses that Michkov earns, avoiding the overage penalty like they have this season ($245K) while having some flexibility for in-season movement. If Johansen’s cap hit gets restored, they at least have the Ellis LTIR room available to them, giving them some security on that front although they’d face the bonus overage if they can’t get out from under it.

Philadelphia already has over $73MM in commitments for 2025-26 on the books although that leaves them ample space to re-sign their pending RFAs without much issue. 2026-27 sees them with only $51.35MM in commitments so that might be the summer that Briere will be able to take a bigger swing at improving the roster, one that should coincide with them exiting their current rebuild.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

September 30, 2024 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $87,376,524 (below the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F William Cuylle (one year, $828K)
F Adam Edstrom (one year, $847K)
F Matt Rempe (one year, $820K)

Potential Bonuses
Cuylle: $57.5K (games played)

Cuylle’s first full NHL season was a solid one for someone who primarily played on the fourth line. It’s unlikely that he’ll play much higher up this year and with New York’s long-term cap situation, it’s safe to say they’ll be looking for a bridge deal, one that should check in around the $1.4MM mark. Edstrom is someone who could bounce back and forth this season and in that case, New York will probably ask him to accept closer to the $775K minimum in exchange for a one-way contract. Rempe quickly became a fan favorite for his pugilistic skills but will need to be trusted to play more than six minutes a night if he’s to push for any sort of pricey second contract. As things stand, he’s likely to land around $1MM on a bridge agreement if he stays up full-time in 2024-25.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Zachary Jones (813K, RFA)
F Kaapo Kakko ($2.4MM, RFA)
F Alexis Lafreniere ($2.325MM, RFA)
D Ryan Lindgren ($4.5MM, UFA)
D K’Andre Miller ($3.872MM, RFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($1.275MM, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($775K, UFA)
G Igor Shesterkin ($5.67MM, UFA)
F Reilly Smith ($3.75MM, UFA)*
F Jimmy Vesey ($800K, UFA)

*-Pittsburgh is retaining an additional $1.25MM of Smith’s contract.

Potential Bonuses
Quick: $25K (20 starts plus a save percentage of .915 or more)

Smith was acquired on the opening day of free agency as New York’s free agent plans seemingly didn’t pan out. On the surface, they probably only wanted someone on a one-year deal so the pivot to this made sense. Smith is coming off a down year with Pittsburgh but is only a year removed from a 56-point effort. If he can get back to that, he could maintain his full $5MM salary for a few more years but the likelier scenario is something in the $4MM range. Kakko accepted his qualifying offer early to take one more run at things in New York. Until he can become more than a third liner, however, it’s hard to foresee him getting much more than this. Vesey, meanwhile, had one of his best years last season and a repeat performance could allow him to potentially double his price tag but the Rangers will need to keep that salary slot closer to where it is now.

Lafreniere is one of the more intriguing pending restricted free agents from the 2025 class. After struggling through his entry-level contract (resulting in this bridge deal), he was much more impactful last season, showing the skill that made him a top pick before following it up with a strong playoff run. Still just 22, there’s cause for optimism that Lafreniere could still beat his numbers from a year ago which will only send the price tag up even more. Assuming that he can at least maintain his 2023-24 output, Lafreniere’s next contract should push past the $6MM mark at a minimum; it wouldn’t be surprising to see it go to a seven.

Lindgren settled for a one-year deal earlier this summer, one that will grant him unrestricted free agency at 27. However, his offensive numbers are rather limited; he has yet to reach the 20-point mark. That should limit him on the open market although a small raise from this price tag could be doable. Miller is another player who had to settle for a bridge deal given New York’s cap situation at the time. He wasn’t quite as impactful statistically last season but still played top-pairing minutes, putting him on track for a fair-sized raise. His qualifying offer checks in at $4.546MM, already a sizable jump but he could also command $6MM or more on a long-term agreement.

Jones hasn’t been able to lock down a full-time spot in the lineup which won’t help his case in contract talks. His qualifying offer goes up to just over $866K next summer and if he’s not more established by then, he could be a non-tender candidate with an eye on filling that spot with someone making the minimum. Ruhwedel has been a capable seventh defender for several years now but isn’t likely to make much more than the league minimum moving forward.

While Shesterkin is coming off a quieter year by his standards, he still was one of the top netminders in the league last season and has been for the past four seasons. Accordingly, he is believed to be looking for what would be a record-breaking contract; Carey Price ($10.5MM) is the holder of the priciest deal given to a goalie in NHL history. Doubling his current AAV could be doable in the process. Quick had a bounce-back year after a tough 2022-23 showing, earning himself a small raise in the process. With Shesterkin being more of a workhorse, they will only need Quick to play 25-30 games which he should be capable of doing. Given his age (38), it’s fair to suggest he’ll be on one-year deals from here on out.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Jonny Brodzinski ($788K, UFA)
F Artemi Panarin ($11.643MM, UFA)
D Braden Schneider ($2.2MM, RFA)
D Jacob Trouba ($8MM, UFA)

Panarin set and still holds (for now, at least) the record for the highest cap hit for a winger. It’s hard to say the contract has been a bargain but it’s fair to say he has lived up to it so far. Panarin has the fourth-most points of any player over the past five seasons (since he signed in New York) so they’ve gotten a solid return so far. That said, he’ll be entering his age-35 year when his next contract starts so it’s reasonable to think the cap hit will be coming down and it will be a question of how long the deal becomes with the longer the term, the lower the AAV. Brodzinski started last season off strong in the minors to earn a recall and never went back, earning this contract in the process. If he stays in a depth or reserve role, it’s unlikely he’d command a big raise but even securing more one-way deals at this point of his career (he’s 31) would be a nice outcome for him.

Trouba was shopped around over the summer although no trade came to fruition. He’s on an expensive contract for the role he fills (a third defender) but he’s still a more than capable player in that role. Still, even if he rebounds over the next two seasons, he’ll be looking at a multi-million dollar pay cut although a multi-year pact should still be doable. Schneider was the latest player to take a bridge contract this summer. He has been held under 16 minutes a game in each of his first three seasons; it’s safe to say they’ll be expecting him to take a step forward in that regard. His qualifying offer checks in at $2.64MM with arbitration rights in 2026 so if he’s still on the third pairing by then, that could be a problem.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Sam Carrick ($1MM, UFA)
F Filip Chytil ($4.438MM, UFA)
F Chris Kreider ($6.5MM, UFA)

Kreider didn’t produce much in the first season of this contract but since then, he has 127 goals over the last three years, putting him seventh among all NHL players over that span. Given his physical playing style, it’s possible that injuries could be an issue toward the end of the deal when he’ll be 36 and potentially going year to year after that.

Chytil has battled concussion issues at times, including missing most of last season which makes him a bit of a wild card. This is a high price tag for someone projected to play on the third line although if he’s healthy, he should be more productive than a typical third liner. But with the injury history, it’s hard to foresee him getting this type of commitment unless he has three seasons of good health. Carrick came over in free agency to anchor the fourth line after a good showing between Anaheim and Edmonton last season. If he can maintain that for the next three years, a late-career raise could come his way even though he’ll be 35 on his next contract.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

D Adam Fox ($9.5MM through 2028-29)
F Vincent Trocheck ($5.625MM through 2028-29)
F Mika Zibanejad ($8.5MM through 2029-30)

Zibanejad has had some of his best offensive seasons over the past three years and at 31 and still playing a prominent role, there’s little reason to think he’ll take a big step back on that front over the next few years. By the time this contract ends, it’s unlikely he’ll be playing nearly 20 minutes a game but that’s not a concern that they’ll have to worry about for a while. Trocheck has found another gear offensively since joining the Rangers two years ago and is coming off a season where he put up low-end number one center production while making considerably less than that. That might not be maintainable over the remaining four years of the deal but even if he settles back in around the 50-point mark by then, they’ll get good value here.

Fox has been quite consistent offensively over the past three seasons, ranging between 72 and 74 points over that span, putting him fourth among NHL blueliners over that time. He makes a bit more than the three ahead of him but sits $2MM below the top-paid rearguard league-wide. There’s little reason to think that Fox shouldn’t be able to at least stay around that type of production for the bulk of the remainder of his contract. While it’s unlikely he’ll set a record-breaking deal next time out (others might surpass the current benchmark by then), he could make a case to add a couple million per season on his next agreement, one that could be a max-term deal as well.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Lafreniere
Worst Value: Trouba

Looking Ahead

As is the case with a lot of contenders this year, cap space is going to be hard to come by for the Rangers who will be hard-pressed to afford an injury recall as things stand. With that in mind, they’ll have to get creative if they’re going to add to their roster before the March trade deadline.

The greater concern is beyond the upcoming season. They already have more than $58MM in commitments to just 10 players for 2025-26 with Shesterkin, Miller, and Lafreniere all heading for significantly pricier contracts. Those three alone should cost more than $20MM combined, potentially closer to $25MM if they all have big seasons. They can afford that but that would be it for big spending while potentially needing to move Trouba out as well. Panarin and Trouba (if he is still around) are up in 2026, giving them a bit more wiggle room at that time but things could be dicey for 2025-26 at a minimum.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

September 28, 2024 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $88,000,000 (at the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Maxim Tsyplakov (one year, $950K)

Potential Bonuses:
Tsyplakov: $1MM

The Isles beat out a long list of suitors to secure Tsyplakov’s services after a breakout year in the KHL that saw him score 31 goals. He projects to play in the bottom six, however, meaning he shouldn’t have a goal total anywhere near there. If Tsyplakov stays in that role, he likely won’t reach any of his ‘A’ bonuses either. Worth noting is that he will be arbitration-eligible next summer even though he’s exiting his entry-level deal.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Samuel Bolduc ($800K, RFA)
D Noah Dobson ($4MM, RFA)
F Hudson Fasching ($775K, UFA)
F Simon Holmstrom ($850K, RFA)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM, UFA)
F Kyle Palmieri ($5MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Alexander Romanov ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Oliver Wahlstrom ($1MM, RFA)

Nelson has been somewhat of a late bloomer. His last three seasons have been the best of his career, reaching at least 34 goals and 59 points in each of them. If he can extend that streak to four, he could land a small increase, an outcome that didn’t seem likely early on in this deal. Palmieri didn’t fare well over his first two seasons in New York but did return to form last season, matching his career-high in goals with 30. He’ll need to stay around that level to have a chance to stay around this price tag as three seasons between 21 and 33 points before 2023-24 will hurt him in negotiations.

Wahlstrom struggled considerably last season, leading to speculation about his future with the team (which hasn’t really changed heading into this year). Assuming he doesn’t take a big leap forward this season, he’s likely to stay around this price point and could be a non-tender candidate given his arbitration rights. Holmstrom’s first full NHL season was a good one with 15 goals, including five on the penalty kill but took a bit less than his qualifying offer to secure a one-way salary. A similar showing could get him closer to double that next summer. Fasching has had a limited role over the past couple of seasons and is likely to stay in that spot in 2024-25 which means he should stay around the league minimum mark next summer.

When Dobson signed his current deal, it was a situation where the Islanders had more of the leverage. That’s not the case anymore. He showed that his breakout 2021-22 performance wasn’t a fluke and built on it last season, recording 70 points and logging more than 24 minutes a night. Essentially, he performed like a true number one defender. With arbitration rights this time around, Dobson gets the leverage in that if early talks don’t go well, he could file for arbitration where he’d make a very strong case for a substantial raise. Assuming neither side wants it to get to that point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dobson’s camp pushing for $10MM or more on a long-term deal at this stage.

Romanov has emerged as a legitimate second-pairing option in his first two seasons with the Isles while producing a bit more offensively than he did with Montreal. Like Dobson, he’s also now arbitration-eligible and if he puts up a similar performance this season, Romanov could land closer to $4.5MM on his next contract.

Reilly re-signed after playing a regular role following his early-season waiver claim. What will hurt him in future talks is how much he has bounced around which will give some teams pause in free agency when it comes to offering him a contract. Accordingly, there’s a good chance he sticks around this price tag on more short-term deals over the next little while. Bolduc has been in the seventh defender role over the past two seasons and is likely to stay in that spot this season. Arbitration rights could give him a small raise but with the raises coming to Dobson and Romanov, they might need to keep this salary slot at the minimum.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Anders Lee ($7MM, UFA)
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($5MM, UFA)

Lee managed to reach the 20-goal mark for the seventh time in the last eight years last season but with just 37 points, that was his lowest full-season total since 2015-16. Now 34, the captain is showing signs of slowing down which means the last couple of years of this deal could be an issue from a value perspective. If that happens, his next deal will be closer to half of this amount. The same can be said for Pageau who is a luxury they can no longer afford on the third line which is where he’s best utilized. But with that type of playing time, he won’t put up the production to justify the price tag. It wouldn’t be surprising to see New York try to move him at some point but that won’t be easy.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Casey Cizikas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Kyle MacLean ($775K, UFA)
G Semyon Varlamov ($2.75MM, UFA)

Cizikas is halfway through a six-year deal, a term rarely given to a player his age who plays exclusively in the bottom six. With an uptick in production the last two seasons, they’ve done alright with it so far but he’ll be 36 when this contract ends so things could change quickly. His next contract, if there is one, should come in below that. MacLean was a career minor leaguer until partway through last season. This deal was a nice one for both sides in that it gives him some financial stability while New York gets a player at the minimum for a few seasons which they’ll need given the pricey contracts they have (and will soon be adding to).

Varlamov is still an above-average second goaltender and getting that at this price point is good. What could be problematic down the road is that he’s already 36 with three years left on his contract. But goalies can still be serviceable into their late 30s so there’s a chance that this deal will work out well for New York.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Mathew Barzal ($9.15MM through 2030-31)
F Anthony Duclair ($3.5MM through 2027-28)
F Pierre Engvall ($3MM through 2029-30)
F Bo Horvat ($8.5MM through 2030-31)
D Scott Mayfield ($3.5MM through 2029-30)
D Adam Pelech ($5.75MM through 2028-29)
D Ryan Pulock ($6.15MM through 2029-30)
G Ilya Sorokin ($8.25MM through 2031-32)

Barzal got back to the point-per-game mark last season for the first time since his rookie year while also setting a new career best in goals. This is more the minimum level of production that will be needed to justify the contract but at 27, that is still doable. GM Lou Lamoriello’s comment when Horvat’s deal (“It’s too long, and it’s too much money”) is memorable but by no means is it a steep overpayment either. He’s not a true top center but has been deployed as one and has three straight 30-plus-goal seasons. If he was hitting the open market last summer, he likely would have come in pretty close to this amount and term.

Duclair was New York’s biggest splash in free agency this summer. He’s coming off a mixed year that saw him struggle in San Jose but thrive down the stretch with Tampa Bay. He has reached at least 20 goals in three of the last five seasons, however, and if he can stay at that level, the Islanders should get a good return on this agreement. Engvall’s contract was an eye-popper last summer, not so much for the $3MM price tag but for the fact he received a seven-year deal, a term few players in his role typically get. He’s someone who can be moved around the lineup and play in a few different roles while chipping in with some depth scoring. This isn’t necessarily the best usage of a long-term deal but it’s not a big overpayment either.

Until recently, Pulock had been New York’s top defender in what was more of a by-committee approach at the top but with Dobson’s emergence last season, that should change moving forward. This price tag is certainly reasonable for someone who should fill the number two role although he won’t produce as much offensively as a lot of players in this range do.

Pelech has logged more than 20 minutes a night in five straight years, playing a big role in New York’s defensive committee as well although his offensive production is even more limited than Pulock’s. That makes the price tag a little harder to justify, especially for a second-pairing player but his strong defensive game eases that concern a bit. It’s an above-market deal but a manageable one. Mayfield also received a surprisingly long-term agreement for the role he plays, one that’s more of a fifth option when everyone is healthy. But injuries often moved him into the top four and that price for someone in that role is manageable. It could be an issue towards the end of the agreement but they’re not going to be at that point for a while.

Sorokin enters the season with a bit of a question mark which is something few expected this time a year ago. After three strong years to start his NHL career, he battled inconsistency last season, even losing the starting job to Varlamov late in the year and in the playoffs. That’s not ideal for someone who is now the fifth highest-paid goalie in the league (fourth if you don’t count Carey Price who will be on LTIR again this season). That said, his track record is good enough that they can realistically count on Sorokin at least returning to close to his previous form which he will need to do to live up to this contract.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Dobson
Worst Value: Lee

Looking Ahead

While the Islanders project to be right at the Upper Limit to start the season, there is some work to do. They’ll need to create space to get Tsyplakov onto the roster and they will want to leave some wiggle room for injuries and any in-season movement. With that in mind, Lamoriello is going to need to find a way to trim a couple million off the books and even with that, they’ll be close to being a cap-in, cap-out team in 2024-25.

They have nearly $66MM in commitments on the books for 2025-26 already with Dobson and Romanov in line for pricey new deals that will probably cut half of their remaining cap space right there without even approaching new agreements for Nelson or Palmieri (or their replacements). At this point, it’s hard to see the Islanders being able to keep their current core group around much longer let alone add to it for a couple more years at least.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New Jersey Devils

September 27, 2024 at 7:36 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Hit: $87,023,897 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Luke Hughes (one year, $925K)
D Simon Nemec (two years, $918K)

Potential Bonuses
Hughes: $1.85MM
Nemec: $3.25MM
Total: $5.1MM

Hughes had a strong rookie season offensively, notching 47 points while maxing out his $850K of ‘A’ bonuses in the process. Even with that being his only full season of experience, with the way young blueliners have been locked up lately, a max-term agreement could be coming his way, one that could run past $8MM. However, an injury to start the season won’t help his cause. Nemec, meanwhile, spent most of last season in New Jersey, acquitting himself well to the NHL. He doesn’t have quite the offensive upside that Hughes does but he could be an all-situations player; that, coupled with his lofty draft status (second overall in 2022), could have him surpassing $8MM on his next contract if he progresses as expected.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

G Jake Allen ($1.925MM, UFA)*
F Nathan Bastian ($1.35MM, UFA)
D Nick DeSimone ($775K, UFA)
D Johnathan Kovacevic ($758K, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($1MM, UFA)
F Tomas Tatar ($1.8MM, UFA)

*-Montreal is retaining an additional $1.925MM on Allen’s contract.

Tatar returns to New Jersey after a particularly rough season between Colorado and Seattle but he’s only a year removed from putting up 48 points with the Devils. It’s possible that he’s on the decline but it’s reasonable to think he’ll produce enough to warrant this price tag. He hasn’t fared well lately in free agency so even if he rebounds, he probably won’t command a huge jump in salary. Bastian is a capable fourth liner who showed some offensive upside in 2021-22 but will need to get back to that level if he wants to match this deal next summer let alone beat it. Lazar is coming off a career year offensively which is an outlier relative to the rest of his career. If he can repeat the 25 points he had, he could double this price point or even more. However, if he goes more to his career averages, a small increase is about the best he could hope for.

DeSimone was a midseason waiver claim from Calgary and held his own in a depth role. It’d be surprising to see him advance past that this season so he’s likely to stay around the minimum salary moving forward. Kovacevic came over in a trade from Montreal over the summer after largely holding down a spot on the third pairing the last two years. While a lot will depend on if he can play a regular role this season, the fact he’s a right-shot defender with some experience under his belt could give him a shot at doubling his current rate next summer.

Allen also was acquired from Montreal, this time back at the trade deadline where he stabilized things between the pipes down the stretch. Stabilizing is a fitting description for what Allen’s best role is at this point of his career. He can handle a starting workload for brief stretches but is best utilized in a platoon type of role or as a high-end backup which is where he’ll be this season. The market for those types of netminders has flattened out somewhat in recent years, however, while the fact he’ll be 35 heading into 2025-26 will also hurt him. It’s possible that he can get a two-year deal but a possible comparable might be the two-year, $5MM pact that Cam Talbot received from Detroit this summer.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Paul Cotter ($775K, RFA)
F Erik Haula ($3.15MM, UFA)
G Jacob Markstrom ($4.125MM, UFA)*

*-Calgary is retaining an additional $1.85MM on Markstrom’s contract.

Haula hasn’t been able to get back to the level of production he had when he started with Vegas in 2017-18 but he has settled in nicely over the last three seasons as someone who will play around a 15-goal, 40-point pace. That price point for a center is solid value but he’ll also be 35 when this deal is up which could limit his shot at a raise in 2026. Cotter was acquired from Vegas this summer as a way for the Devils to add some more grit to their lineup. Part of the reason the price was relatively high (Alexander Holtz and Akira Schmid) is the fact he’s signed for two more years at the league minimum. Cotter could triple that or more on his next deal if he plays at a similar rate for the next two seasons.

It took a little longer than first expected to get Markstrom to New Jersey but they got the deal done before the draft. He’s a solid starter although he’s also getting closer to the end of his career as he’s already 34. Accordingly, even if the starting goalie market goes up (depending on what contracts Jeremy Swayman and Igor Shesterkin get), Markstrom is likelier to stay closer to his current price point if he can maintain his current level for two more seasons.

Signed Through 2026-27

D Brenden Dillon ($4MM, UFA)
F Nico Hischier ($7.25MM, UFA)
F Kurtis MacDermid ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Dawson Mercer ($4MM, RFA)
F Stefan Noesen ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($6MM, UFA)

At the time that Hischier’s contract was signed, he had just two seasons under his belt so there was certainly some risk to a max-term commitment at the time. However, it has worked out rather well so far for the Devils as it is already below market value at the time he’s entering his prime years. (The success of this contract provided a road map for other teams to take similar approaches with their top youngsters as well as these types of contracts are much more prevalent now.) Hischier probably won’t produce enough to be viewed as a true number one center but his two-way game is strong enough that there will be teams that treat him as one. Accordingly, between that and the fact he’ll hit free agency at 28, Hischier could command a double-digit AAV on his next contract.

Palat hasn’t been able to produce at the levels he did with Tampa Bay over his first two seasons with New Jersey with injuries being an issue at times as well. Already 33, if he’s not able to turn things around, this is a deal that could be problematic for them as GM Tom Fitzgerald continues to try to add to his roster. Mercer was all but guaranteed to land a bridge contract given New Jersey’s current cap situation but the fact they got a third season at that price point will help. However, it takes him to within a year of UFA eligibility so it’s not without its risk. Mercer will be owed a $4.25MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights and if he can get back to his 2022-23 production (56 points), he could add a few million per year to that number.

Noesen proved to be quite a bargain for Carolina for the last two seasons, recording 36 and 37 points for a cap hit below the league minimum. That helped earn him this deal, well above the six-figure price tags he was accustomed to getting. Is this his new baseline performance? He’ll need it to be if he is going to stay around this price moving forward. MacDermid signed this deal back in May to avoid free agency. It’s a reasonable price tag for an enforcer and falls within the range of some of the more established options. It’s also fully buriable in the minors if they decide a tough guy is something they can no longer afford to carry.

Dillon was part of the defensive makeover this summer, coming over from Winnipeg. This will be seasons 11 through 13 that he makes more than $3MM with this price tag being the highest. He’ll be 36 when he tests the market again and if he’s still a fourth or fifth blueliner at that time, that streak could be extended though potentially on a year-to-year basis moving forward.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Jesper Bratt ($7.875MM through 2030-31)
D Dougie Hamilton ($9MM through 2027-28)
F Jack Hughes ($8MM through 2029-30)
F Timo Meier ($8.8MM through 2030-31)
D Brett Pesce ($5.5MM through 2029-30)
D Jonas Siegenthaler ($3.4MM through 2027-28)

Meier was Fitzgerald’s biggest splash on the trade front in the 2022-23 campaign but he hasn’t had the same type of offensive success that he did with San Jose over his last two years with them. It’s possible that those seasons are the outliers and if it is, this will be a burdensome contract. However, there is still legitimate cause for optimism that he can improve and if he does, while it still won’t be a good contract, he’ll come closer to providing reasonable value on it.

When healthy, Hughes is a legitimate top-liner and having that type of player locked in for that long at a below-market price tag is a nice piece of business. The deal should only get more team-friendly as the salary cap continues to go up in the years to come. He’ll be eyeing a significant raise in 2030. It took a while for Bratt and the Devils to get a long-term agreement done but they did so last offseason. He’s one of the more unheralded top-six wingers out there with three straight seasons of 73 or more points. As long as he stays at that rate, they’ll do well with this deal.

Hamilton’s 2022-23 performance showed the type of impact he can have offensively when healthy but staying in the lineup has been a challenge in two of his three seasons. It stands to reason that the younger Hughes will start to cut into Hamilton’s offensive minutes which could make him more of a second or third option. That cost for that role will be above-market although they’re a year or two from probably getting to that point.

Pesce was the other addition of note on the back end this summer, signing after a strong nine-year run with Carolina. Best served as a second-pairing player, he could be slotted in that role with the Devils. He doesn’t generally produce a lot of points so it’s possible that he winds up as a high-priced shutdown defender. If that happens, the value won’t be great but that’s still a valuable player to have on a roster. Siegenthaler has become a quality secondary regular since being acquired from Washington but again, his offensive game is limited. That said, if he’s in a shutdown role at this price point, they’ll still get a reasonable return on this deal while they’re hoping he’s still young enough that there’s room for improvement in the offensive end.

Buyouts

None

Salary Cap Recapture

F Ilya Kovalchuk ($250K in 2024-25)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: (non-entry-level) J. Hughes
Worst Value: Palat

Looking Ahead

Fitzgerald was quite busy in the offseason, checking off most of the items off what was an ambitious checklist. As a result, they’re going to be operating close to the cap ceiling, probably putting them in a spot where they’re dealing with a bonus carryover penalty once again for next season. They’ll be a cap-in, cap-out team for any in-season movement as a result.

With nearly $77MM in commitments for 2025-26 already, it’s fair to say that it’s unlikely that New Jersey will be adding as much next summer but they do have enough expiring deals over the next couple of seasons to put them in a spot where they won’t need to subtract from their core to keep the rest of the team intact. Clearly operating in a win-now mode, that’s a pretty good spot for them to be in overall though their flexibility will be somewhat limited for a while.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2024

Los Angeles Kings

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2025-26

Signed Through 2026-27

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

Buyouts

Salary Cap Recapture

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Edmonton Oilers

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2025-26

Signed Through 2026-27

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Calgary Flames

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2025-26

Signed Through 2026-27

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Anaheim Ducks

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2025-26

Signed Through 2026-27

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Washington Capitals

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2025-26

Signed Through 2026-27

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Pittsburgh Penguins

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2025-26

Signed Through 2026-27

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Philadelphia Flyers

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2025-26

Signed Through 2026-27

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Pending Grievances

Looking Ahead

New York Rangers

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2025-26

Signed Through 2026-27

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Still To Sign

Looking Ahead

New York Islanders

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level