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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2023

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Florida Panthers

Current Cap Hit: $83,525,001 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Anton Lundell (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

Lundell: $850K

Lundell’s sophomore campaign wasn’t as strong as his first but he still was a key part of their secondary core, taking regular shifts on both special teams units, a trend that continued into the playoffs.  He’s someone who will be a part of their plans for a long time but with who else is on an expiring deal next summer, they’re probably going to be forced to look at a bridge deal that could fall in the $3.5MM range if he’s able to get back to his rookie-season output.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Lucas Carlsson ($775K, UFA)
F Nick Cousins ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($2.67MM, UFA)
D Matt Kiersted ($762.5K, UFA)
D Dmitry Kulikov ($1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Lomberg ($800K, UFA)
F Steven Lorentz ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Josh Mahura ($925K, RFA)
D Brandon Montour ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($1MM, UFA)
F Sam Reinhart ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Kevin Stenlund ($1MM, UFA)
G Anthony Stolarz ($1.1MM, UFA)

When Florida traded a first-round pick and Devon Levi to Buffalo to get Reinhart and signed him to this deal, it was a sign they were banking on him having another gear to get to offensively.  That turned out to be an accurate prediction as his last two seasons have been his best by a considerable margin and he has turned into a top-line player.  Notably, he also has spent more time down the middle since joining the Panthers which will only boost his asking price as there will be teams looking at him as a center if he gets to the open market.  At this point, an extension might fall between the $8.5MM and $9MM range and if Reinhart goes and boosts his production closer to the point per game mark, it’ll go even higher from there.

Cousins has bounced around throughout his career but is a serviceable fourth liner that can move up in a pinch.  Having tested free agency a few times already, it’s fair to say that his current price tag is about what his market value should be next year.  Lorentz came over in the Anthony Duclair trade and is likely to stay in a similar fourth-line role to the one he had a year ago; his next deal should also land around this price point.  The same can be said for Stenlund as well who signed with Florida this summer after playing in Winnipeg last season.  Lomberg, however, has seen his stock rise over the last couple of years and is the type of role player teams will pay up a bit more for.  Doubling his current price tag isn’t out of the question next summer.

The upside had always been there with Montour with multiple teams thinking they could be the one to unlock it.  The Panthers did just that last season as he went from being a slightly above-average offensive contributor to one of the top-scoring blueliners in the NHL.  A carryover injury from the playoffs will delay the start of his season but it will be worth watching to see if he can repeat that performance.  If he can, his price tag should more than double.

Forsling has been one of the top waiver claims in recent memory as since he came over from Carolina, he has emerged as an all-around threat while he also logged top-pair minutes last season.  He isn’t a true number one option but the market for a legitimate number two option has also gone up considerably.  Accordingly, he’s also set to more than double his current price tag a year from now.   Ekman-Larsson was bought out by Vancouver and found a soft landing spot with Florida where he won’t be counted on to play as many minutes.  If he shows well on the second pairing, he should have a better market a year from now.

Reilly was also bought out this summer after spending most of last year in the minors with Boston.  He’s more of a depth option in an ideal world but with a full season, he should produce enough to command a small raise next summer.  Kulikov won’t put up many points but can still log upwards of 20 minutes a night.  This contract seemed a bit low for him, especially as an early signing, but his market might not have been as favorable as it might have seemed back in July.  Mahura emerged as a regular on the third pairing last season after being claimed off waivers.  If he can maintain that spot in the lineup, he’ll be due a small raise at least but arbitration eligibility could work against him if Florida needs to put a cheaper player in that spot.  Carlsson and Kiersted both spent more time last season in the minors but one of them could break camp with the team due to injuries.  Both players are likely to stay around the minimum moving forward.

Stolarz battled injuries last season but still managed to land his richest deal as the market for quality third-string options really improved this summer.  He’s likely ticketed for the minors but will be a capable stand-in should injuries arise.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Sam Bennett ($4.425MM, UFA)
F Grigori Denisenko ($775K, RFA)
D Aaron Ekblad ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Carter Verhaeghe ($4.167MM, UFA)

As he did with Reinhart, GM Bill Zito saw more in Bennett than what he was providing in Calgary and swung a big trade to get him.  This one worked out well too.  Bennett isn’t a top-liner but is a quality second-line power forward who can also kill penalties.  His camp might be looking at Tom Wilson’s recent extension which carries an AAV of $6.5MM as a target starting point for negotiations.

Verhaeghe has been a bargain since the moment he joined Florida.  He vastly outperformed his first deal, then accepted an early extension, an understandable move considering he had been in the minors just a couple of years earlier.  He then went and scored 42 goals in the first season of this deal.  Even if he takes a step back from that, he could push for $6.5MM or more on his next contract as well.  Denisenko has primarily played in the minors but is now waiver-eligible, likely resulting in him breaking camp with the team.  For now, it’s more about locking down a lineup spot than it is worrying about his next contract.

Ekblad’s contract was a record-setter at the time as both sides bypassed the bridge deal in favor of a lucrative second deal.  All things considered, it has held up pretty well so far.  No, he hasn’t emerged as that high-end number one defender – he doesn’t produce enough to get into that territory – but this cap hit isn’t anywhere near what some of those players are making.  He plays big minutes in all situations while still providing a fair amount of offense.  As a result, he’s positioning himself to command another max-term agreement after this one and likely at least a small raise along the way.  He isn’t flashy but Florida has gotten a good return on their first-overall selection in 2014.

Signed Through 2025-26

G Sergei Bobrovsky ($10MM, UFA)
G Spencer Knight ($4.5MM, RFA)
D Niko Mikkola ($2.5MM, UFA)

Mikkola has been more of a fifth defenseman so far and when everyone on Florida’s back end is healthy, that’s about as high as he’ll be on the depth chart which makes the term given out here a bit surprising.  They’re looking to him to help replace Radko Gudas who left for Anaheim this summer while giving them at least one dependable option signed beyond 2025.  But if he has a limited role on the third pairing, this will be a bit of an above-market contract.

Bobrovsky had a stellar first three rounds of the playoffs, playing a big role in Florida’s run to the Stanley Cup Final.  However, it came on the heels of a subpar season that saw him post just a .901 SV%.  He’s historically quite streaky but as the highest-paid active goalie in the league, expectations should be higher than consistently inconsistent.  That played a role in Zito handing Knight this deal early last season, a move that raised more than a few eyebrows given his lack of experience.  Now back from his stint in the Player Assistance Program, if he gets back on track and pushes for that number one role, they’ll do fine with his deal.  Otherwise, they’ll have two pricey netminders on their hands for not a great return.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Detroit Red Wings

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Detroit Red Wings

Current Cap Hit: $78,343,473 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jonatan Berggren (one year, $925K)
F Lucas Raymond (one year, $925K)
D Moritz Seider (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Raymond: $2.5MM
Seider: $850K
Total: $3.35MM

Raymond wasn’t able to match his rookie-season output that saw him finish fourth in Calder Trophy voting but he still did well, notching 45 points in 74 games.  Both sides certainly believe he has more in the tank than that which makes him a long-term extension candidate.  At this point, the magic number might have to start with a seven for that to happen.  A bridge agreement would be closer to the $4MM range.  Berggren had a solid rookie showing last season but with the extra depth the Red Wings added up front, he will be hard-pressed to command a higher spot on the depth chart.  Accordingly, he’s likely heading for the short-term second contract; if he can stay around the 30-point mark, that deal should check in around double his current price tag.

Seider also didn’t live up to the expectations of his rookie campaign in 2021-22, a performance that saw him win Rookie of the Year.  But as far as sophomore seasons go, his was still pretty good.  The sixth-overall pick in 2019 is their undisputed number one defenseman and there’s little reason to think that the best isn’t yet to come.  With that in mind, it would make sense for GM Steve Yzerman to zero in on a long-term second contract.  The eight-year, $64.4MM extension that Jake Sanderson signed with Ottawa recently figures to be the starting point in negotiations.  From the bonus perspective, Seider could reach all four of his ‘A’ bonuses (Raymond has four worth this amount as part of his deal as well) but Detroit has ample space to absorb that on their books this season.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Christian Fischer ($1.125MM, UFA)
D Shayne Gostisbehere ($4.125MM, UFA)
F David Perron ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Michael Rasmussen ($1.46MM, RFA)
G James Reimer ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Daniel Sprong ($2MM, UFA)
F Joe Veleno ($825K, RFA)

Perron typically hadn’t had much success outside of St. Louis but changed that last year, continuing his streak of recording at least 55 points in a season for the fourth year in a row.  Another season like that would seemingly boost his value but he’ll be 36 at that time and pricey multi-year deals are hard to come by at that age.  Sprong was non-tendered for the second straight summer to avoid salary arbitration despite a breakout performance that saw him pass 20 goals and 20 assists for the first time.  If he can repeat that this season, he could double this price tag a year from now.

Rasmussen battled injuries last year but still hit a new benchmark in points.  His development has been slower but steady as they look to turn him into a second-liner.  That might not happen this season but he’s still setting himself up for an AAV past the $2MM mark if he can repeat last year’s output.  Fischer came over in unrestricted free agency after being non-tendered by Arizona and will need to show that last season’s offensive improvement (27 points) is repeatable to avoid being typecast into a fourth-line role.  Veleno opted for a one-year lower-cost bridge agreement in the hopes of locking down a bigger role which would set him up for a better pay day next summer.  Either way, he’ll be arbitration-eligible which will help his cause.

Gostisbehere’s case is an interesting one.  Offensively, he produces at a rate that’s well above average but he gives a good chunk of it back at the defensive end.  His situation reminds me of Tyson Barrie, a proven offensive producer but someone who struggles to generate long-term contracts on the open market.  Playing time will be harder to come by in Detroit which should lower his output (and value) next summer.  A multi-year deal starting with a three might be his best option next summer.

Reimer comes over in free agency from San Jose coming off by far the worst season of his career.  On what should be a better team, a rebound is expected but if it’s not a significant one, his market value might take another tumble at the age of 36 next summer.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Robby Fabbri ($4MM, UFA)
G Ville Husso ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Klim Kostin ($2MM, RFA)
D Olli Maatta ($3MM, UFA)
D Jeff Petry ($2.344MM, UFA)*

*-Montreal is retaining $2.344MM per season; Pittsburgh is retaining $1.563MM per season.

Fabbri’s contract seemed like a reach when he signed it in 2021.  When healthy, he plays like a $4MM player but he just can’t stay healthy.  He will need to shed that label to have any chance of a deal near this price point in 2025.  Kostin came over in an odd trade with Edmonton as one player was bought out and Kostin himself was non-tendered to avoid arbitration.  They got this deal done soon after, a nice improvement for someone who cleared waivers in training camp last season.  Detroit is clearly banking on Kostin having an ability to improve upon last season’s production and if he can, they’ll have an intriguing power forward on their hands.  With those, the price tag usually only goes up from there.

Maatta’s decision to sign with Detroit last summer proved wise as he earned himself this in-season extension to keep him around longer.  He’s not at the level he was in his rookie year but can still play in the top four when needed and kill penalties.  This seems a bit above market but not by much.  Petry is coming off a down year in Pittsburgh but still should serve as a capable replacement for Filip Hronek behind Seider on the right side of the depth chart.  He’ll be turning 38 soon into his next deal and it’s fair to say that it will be a lot lower than his base $6.25MM AAV.

Husso was an interesting pickup by Yzerman last summer.  Detroit traded for his negotiation rights which is something we don’t see a lot of nowadays.  Husso then received a pretty sizable contract for someone with just 53 career NHL starts under his belt.  The results in his first season were mixed.  There were flashes where Husso looked like a capable starter (or at least a strong-side platoon option) and others where he struggled mightily.  Now with a full season under his belt, it will be interesting to see if he can improve and help lead Detroit into a push for the playoffs.  If that happens, he could set himself up for a small raise in 2025 but if not, he’ll drop more into the category of a true platoon goalie whose market value is about a million less than his current price tag.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Ben Chiarot ($4.75MM, UFA)
D Justin Holl ($3.4MM, UFA)
D Jake Walman ($3.4MM, UFA)

Chiarot received one of the bigger deals for a blueliner last summer but he struggled in his first season despite playing a similar role to the one he had some success with in Montreal.  With a deeper back end now, it’s possible that a lesser role might make Chiarot a better fit this season.  Walman is still relatively unproven as last season was his first where he played more than 51 games.  But he showed enough to give the Red Wings some enthusiasm to think there’s more still to come.  If that’s the case, this could be a bargain.  If not, it might wind up a bit above market value as well.  Holl’s contract looks above market value already after he struggled in Toronto last season to the point where he was scratched at times in the playoffs.  A right-shot defender (which always carries extra value), he can hold down a lesser role on this back end but this is a high price for a third-pairing player.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Buffalo Sabres

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Buffalo Sabres

Current Cap Hit: $74,723,570 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Peyton Krebs (one year, $863K)
G Devon Levi (two years, $925K)
F John-Jason Peterka (two years, $856K)
D Owen Power (one year, $916K)
F Jack Quinn (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Krebs: $412.5K
Levi: $925K
Peterka: $32.5K
Power: $1.85MM
Quinn: $850K
Total: $4.07MM

Krebs locked down a regular spot in Buffalo’s lineup last season but saw his per-game production drop along the way, failing to crack the double-digit goal mark in the process.  He’s still an important part of their future but unless he can jump into an impact role this year, a bridge deal around the $2MM mark looks like his likely outcome while he’s unlikely to hit his ‘A’ bonuses.  Quinn, on the other hand, already saw some top-six time last season and should get back to that role once he recovers from surgery.  If he gets into the 25-30-goal range, he’s a candidate to go for a long-term contract right away.  The injury will make it difficult for him to max on his four ‘A’ bonuses.

Peterka’s first full NHL campaign was a strong one given what was a bit of a limited role.  He doesn’t necessarily profile as the type of player who the Sabres would want to bypass a bridge deal with but again, if he can lock down a full-time top-six spot over the next two years, it’s possible he plays himself into that core role.  Peterka’s bonuses are of the games-played variety and as long as he stays healthy, he’ll hit them.

Power made his presence felt in his first full NHL season in 2022-23.  He logged nearly 24 minutes a night, seeing tough minutes in all situations.  He only scored four goals but added 31 assists, demonstrating that there is plenty of upside at that end of the rink.  The 2021 first-overall selection is extension-eligible now and GM Kevyn Adams has indicated a desire to get an early extension done.  Those contracts are rarely bridge agreements so a long-term pact will be coming his way.  The eight-year, $64.4MM extension given to Ottawa’s Jake Sanderson stands as the likely starting point for those discussions.  Notably, Power will have five years of club control next summer so a max-term deal will only give Buffalo three more years to work with.  He has four ‘A’ bonuses and $1MM in ‘B’ bonuses; the A’s are likely to be hit while the B ones are quite difficult to hit.

Levi had quite a run down the stretch after his college season ended as he quickly took over the number one role, helping the Sabres to stay in the playoff race.  Buffalo opted to not get another veteran to help ease him in so it’s fair to say he’s likely to get a big workload this year, giving him a chance to hit at least some of his four ‘A’ bonuses.  Assuming he can hold it down, he could be eyeing a bridge deal around the $4.5MM mark, similar to the ones that Jake Oettinger and Spencer Knight signed.  A long-term agreement would probably push past the $6MM mark.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Jacob Bryson ($1.85MM, RFA)
G Eric Comrie ($1.8MM, UFA)
D Rasmus Dahlin ($6MM, RFA)
F Zemgus Girgensons ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Erik Johnson ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Henri Jokiharju ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Tyson Jost ($2MM, UFA)
G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ($837.5K, RFA)
F Casey Mittelstadt ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Kyle Okposo ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Victor Olofsson ($4.75MM, UFA)
D Riley Stillman ($1.35MM, RFA)

Potential Bonuses
Okposo: $500K

It feels like Olofsson has been a speculative trade candidate for a few years now but yet, here he is still with Buffalo…for now at least.  He impressed with 28 goals last season but still found himself on the fourth line and even out of the lineup at times.  Buffalo has opted to keep giving him raises but if his ice time is limited again this season, the chances of another team seeing fit to do so next summer appear to be low.  Okposo opted not to test free agency this summer, instead accepting this deal, a considerable cut from his $6MM AAV last season.  He would have been hard-pressed to beat this the way the open market went and since he’ll be 36 in April, he’s likely going year-to-year from here on out.  His bonus is payable with a Stanley Cup victory.

Girgensons also elected not to test free agency, inking this deal to stay with the team that drafted him in the first round in 2012.  The market for bottom-six forwards wasn’t great so this looks like a wise move in hindsight.  If he’s back on the fourth line routinely next season, free agency might not be as kind to him a year from now.  Mittelstadt had a breakout campaign in 2022-23, setting new career bests across the board despite seeing a small dip in playing time.  Given how his first few years went, this is a case where both sides will want to wait and see what comes next.  A repeat showing could push his AAV toward the $6MM mark while if he takes a step back, it could land closer to $4MM.  Jost chose to take less than his qualifying offer to stick around in Buffalo.  He held his own after being claimed off waivers from Minnesota but will need to push for a regular top-nine spot if he wants to get another look as eventually, the Sabres will need to cut costs in their bottom six.

Dahlin’s situation has generated a lot of attention in recent weeks.  Some had suggested it was likely that an early extension was coming early in the summer.  Clearly, that hasn’t happened.  Then the target appeared to be the start of training camp but that hasn’t happened yet either.  A max-term agreement should push his AAV into the $10.5MM territory, give or take a couple hundred thousand either way.  At this point, it’s possible that the term of the deal is the hold up more than the cap hit.  If Dahlin opted for a medium-term pact, Buffalo would still gain several years of team control but he’d also be positioned to test the market while still being in his prime where a max-term pact could be more lucrative.  The AAV on a shorter-term pact should check in at or just below $10MM.

Johnson’s signing was a puzzling one on paper after his role and playing time dipped sharply in Colorado the last couple of years.  However, he adds some experience and leadership to a back end that didn’t have a ton of it before and it seems like Adams was willing to overpay for it.  If he stays around the 17-minute mark, his market value might be closer to half things next summer.  Jokiharju has struggled to stay healthy in the first two years of his bridge deal but has also logged more than 21 minutes a night in the 60 games per season he has played.  If that continues this year, he’ll be positioned to at least get past the $3MM mark with arbitration rights even without much in the way of offensive production.

Both Bryson and Stillman find themselves in a similar situation, trying to secure a full-time spot in the lineup.  Bryson looked like a future regular just a year ago but saw his playing time drop to under 15 minutes a game last season.  Stillman, meanwhile, is with his third team in less than a year and has yet to solidify himself as a regular yet.  Bryson needs to be qualified at $1.9MM and Stillman at $1.35MM.  If they can’t lock down a bigger role in the lineup, both could be non-tender candidates.

Luukkonen had a rough year with Buffalo last season, posting a 3.61 GAA and a .891 SV% but it was his first taste of extended NHL action.  He’s not ready to be a starter yet but he still is likely part of their future plans.  At the moment, his next deal might be in the $1.5MM territory but a good year could send that upward quickly.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Jordan Greenway ($3MM, UFA)
F Lukas Rousek ($775K, RFA)

Greenway came over in a midseason trade with Minnesota and didn’t exactly light it up.  Overall, he had just 11 points in 67 last season, numbers that are more in line with a fourth liner.  Power forwards get plenty of runway to develop though and he’ll have a chance to rebuild some value over the next couple of years.  Rousek is a contender to land a spot in training camp after a strong showing last season with Rochester.  If he’s able to do so, a seven-figure deal should be achievable in 2025.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Connor Clifton ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Alex Tuch ($4.75MM, UFA)

Tuch had shown flashes of top-six upside with Vegas and in his first stint with the Sabres but couldn’t sustain it consistently.  That changed last season as he became a bona fide top liner, shattering his previous benchmarks while passing the point-per-game mark for the first time.  Given the premium placed on big forwards, this contract is currently well below market value.

Clifton’s first taste of free agency was a good one, landing a deal whose AAV is almost as high as his career earnings to date.  He adds some sandpaper to Buffalo’s back end and should fill the spot of Ilya Lyubushkin who was traded to Anaheim earlier this summer.  This deal seemed a bit on the high side when it was signed although his market was relatively strong by all accounts.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Hit: $83,070,834 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None that are likely to be full-timers on the roster.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Jesper Boqvist ($775K, RFA)
F Jake DeBrusk ($4MM, UFA)
D Derek Forbort ($3MM, UFA)
F A.J. Greer ($762.5K, UFA)
D Matt Grzelcyk ($3.688MM, UFA)
F Milan Lucic ($1MM, UFA)
D Ian Mitchell ($775K, RFA)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($1.05MM, UFA)
G Jeremy Swayman ($3.475MM, RFA)
F James van Riemsdyk ($1MM, UFA)
D Jakub Zboril ($1.138MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Lucic: $500K

DeBrusk’s future with Boston has been murky for a few years now.  First, it was a trade request that wasn’t granted and was later rescinded.  Since then, he has become an important part of their attack, notching at least 25 goals in each of the last two seasons.  Now, they need to decide if he’s part of their future plans on a contract that’s likely to cost closer to $6MM or if he could be a possible part of an offer to try to get some center help.  Lucic returns after a long stretch out West and is no longer the top-six forward he once was.  However, he has been a serviceable bottom-six piece in a limited role and this contract fits in with the role he’s likely to provide.

Not many players saw their stock fall last season as much as van Riemsdyk.  After being a top power play threat in previous years, he struggled with the man advantage last year which resulted in his lowest goal total since 2011-12.  In doing so, the Flyers weren’t able to find a taker for him at the trade deadline.  He’ll look to rebuild his stock in Boston and if he can have success in a top-six role, his market should be considerably stronger next summer.  Boqvist was non-tendered by New Jersey this summer to avoid arbitration.  He’s a capable fourth-line checker and this should prove to be a team-friendly deal before too long.  Arbitration rights will be in play next summer as well.  Greer held down a regular spot on the roster last season, getting into a career-best 61 games.  Another year like that should increase his chances of another one-way pact but he’s the type of player that teams will be looking to sign for the minimum.

With Boston’s cap situation, Grzelcyk’s future has come into some question as well.  He was basically relegated to an even strength-only player last season and while that type of player still has some value – he’s still a capable offensive player – it’s one that’s hard to afford given their current roster structure.  Next summer, if he has another season like this one, he might be looking at a small dip in pay but should still land a multi-year deal.  Forbort is another speculative cap casualty if GM Don Sweeney makes a move to create some flexibility or needs to match money in a trade.  More of a prototypical third-pairing/penalty killing piece at this point of his career, his market value is probably closer to $2MM unless he can stake a regular claim to a top-four spot this season.

Shattenkirk was one of many bargain signings by Boston this summer, coming over after three years in Anaheim.  He’s starting to slow down but is still capable of logging upwards of 20 minutes per game and certainly left money on the table to join the Bruins.  A good season with them could push him back over the $3MM mark next summer if he wants to maximize his next contract.  Zboril has seen very little NHL action over four years due to injuries, demotions, and being scratched at times; his career GP total is less than a full year.  When he played last season, he was sparingly used.  If that’s the role he has again, his next offers are going to be closer to the minimum salary.  That’s where Mitchell finds himself after taking less than his qualifying offer, presumably in the hopes of trying to secure a spot on Boston’s roster.  Once viewed as a key prospect in Chicago, his stock has dipped but he has had enough success in the minors to warrant another look.

Swayman’s contract was one of the more interesting ones signed this summer.  He had a very strong year, posting a 2.27 GAA along with a .920 SV% but in just 37 games.  For his career, he has just 87 career appearances which isn’t a large sample size to work off of.  A multi-year deal would likely have cost upwards of $4.5MM per year, a sum they simply couldn’t have afforded with their current roster.  Instead, the sides went to arbitration to get this deal.  Another year somewhat similar to this one could push his single-year value into the $4.5MM range – even as a platoon goalie – while a longer-term agreement could push closer to the $6MM mark.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Patrick Brown ($800K, UFA)
F Trent Frederic ($2.3MM, UFA)
F Morgan Geekie ($2MM, RFA)
F Brad Marchand ($6.125MM, UFA)
G Linus Ullmark ($5MM, UFA)

Marchand’s production isn’t where it was at his peak anymore but he was still close to a point per game last season.  Without his long-time linemate Patrice Bergeron, it will be interesting to see how that affects his output but Marchand should still provide positive value on the final two years of his deal.  He’ll be 37 when his next contract begins and it wouldn’t be surprising if he takes another team-friendly pact again.  Frederic took a step forward last season, providing Boston with some good secondary production despite having a limited role, allowing him to more than double the AAV of his previous contract.  He’ll need to maintain that at a minimum while moving up the lineup to push up his price tag again in two years.

Geekie came over after being somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by Seattle.  He’ll have a chance to play a bit higher in the lineup with Boston’s turnover down the middle and if he can hold down the third-line center role, this should be a good pickup for them.  Notably, he’ll still have another year of control through arbitration if things go well.  Brown came over in free agency after splitting last season between Philadelphia and Ottawa.  He’s a serviceable checker on the fourth line without providing much offense so future deals for him should come in close to the minimum as well.

Ullmark had an incredible season last year.  He blew past his full-season career bests in GAA (2.45) and SV% (.917) by putting up 1.89 and .938 respectively in those categories.  Wins and losses certainly aren’t everything for a goalie but he had 40 victories in 48 starts, a win rate that is quite difficult to come by.  That made him a well-deserving recipient of the Vezina Trophy while making mid-tier starter money.  Few are expecting a performance like this in 2023-24 but even if he goes back to his career averages, they’ll get good value here.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Charlie Coyle ($5.25MM, UFA)

Coyle has been a secondary producer for the majority of his career, even coming back to his time with Minnesota.  That made this contract a bit on the high side when it was signed back in 2019.  However, he’s coming off back-to-back years with more than 40 points and has moved back to primarily playing at center after splitting the previous few seasons between center and the wing.  The full-time position switch helps the value.  So do the departures of Bergeron and David Krejci as it will push Coyle into a more prominent role offensively.  As long as that results in an uptick in production – a reasonable expectation – the return on the second half of this contract should be a bit better than the first half.

Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

D Brandon Carlo ($4.1MM through 2026-27)
D Hampus Lindholm ($6.5MM through 2029-30)
D Charlie McAvoy ($9.5MM through 2029-30)
F David Pastrnak ($11.25MM through 2030-31)
F Pavel Zacha ($4.75MM through 2026-27)

Pastrnak had a dominant performance last season, scoring 61 goals while averaging at least a point per game for the fifth straight season.  That put him in the driver’s seat when it came to negotiating an early extension in-season, one that immediately became the richest deal in franchise history.  It’s hard for a player making that much to live up to the contract but he’ll be the go-to player in Boston for a long time.  Zacha’s contract is on the pricey side based on his career numbers but he had a breakout performance in 2022-23, notching 57 points.  Like Coyle, he’ll be asked to play a bigger role this year and if there’s an uptick offensively as a result, this will become a team-friendly deal.

McAvoy has emerged as a legitimate top-pairing defenseman who is above-average at the offensive end.  Those players get paid quickly and he was no exception as he now sits tied for fourth in the NHL in AAV among blueliners.  That’s a hard contract to live up to but the Bruins are banking that he has another gear to get to yet.  Lindholm found a gear offensively that he never could reach with Anaheim, becoming an ideal top-pairing fit in the process.  There’s some concern about how the deal might age as he’ll be out of his prime by then but that’s a problem for down the road, not now.  Carlo is a capable defensive defenseman but his ideal role is a fourth or fifth defender who can kill penalties.  With minimal offensive contributions, it’s a deal that’s above market value at this point.

Buyouts

D Mike Reilly ($333K in 2023-24, $1.33MM in 2024-25)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Shattenkirk
Worst Value: Carlo

Looking Ahead

The bonus carryover penalties from Bergeron and Krejci’s deals cut into Boston’s cap space by $4.5MM.  They’re unlikely to afford a full-sized roster to start the season but if they want to get creative, they might be able to waive someone like Forbort and shuffle him back and forth, freeing up a pro-rated $1.15MM for each day he’s off the roster.  That could give them some extra space to hedge against injuries but if they want to add to their group this season, it’s going to be a money-in, money-out situation barring LTIR for someone coming into play.

Fortunately for the Bruins, the cap challenges could be short-lived.  With over $20MM coming off the books next summer plus the carryover charge being cleared (aside from potentially Lucic’s half-million), Sweeney should have ample flexibility to re-sign his core pieces and then try to add one either via trade or in free agency.  Meanwhile, at the moment, there are just six players signed for the 2025-26 campaign, giving Boston a relatively clean canvas to work with for the future.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $81,720,357 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Ville Heinola (one year, $863K)
F Cole Perfetti (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Heinola: $425K
Perfetti: $850K
Total: $1.275MM

Last season was Perfetti’s first full year at the NHL level and it was going along well in the first half of the season, spending a fair bit of time in the top six while collecting 30 points in 51 games.  However, an upper-body injury ended his season early.  After only playing 18 games in his first year, there probably isn’t enough of a track record for a long-term agreement.  But if he returns and stays in that role, a short-term bridge deal in the $2MM range should be doable.  Perfetti’s bonuses are of the Class A variety (tied to specific thresholds).  Had he stayed healthy, he probably would have reached one of those last season and if he takes a step forward, two or three could be legitimate possibilities which will be notable for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff to keep in mind.

Heinola is a victim of Winnipeg’s depth chart as his performance with AHL Manitoba has demonstrated that he’s worthy of a longer-term look with the Jets.  That chance doesn’t appear to be coming at the moment although a trade or two can certainly change things.  Having said that, unless he’s on the roster and in the lineup regularly, he’s unlikely to reach his two ‘A’ bonuses and will almost certainly be heading for a short-term second contract.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

G Laurent Brossoit ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Kyle Capobianco ($762.5K, RFA)
D Declan Chisholm ($775K, RFA)
D Dylan DeMelo ($3MM, UFA)
D Brenden Dillon ($3.9MM, UFA)
F David Gustafsson ($775K, RFA)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($6.167MM, UFA)
F Nino Niederreiter ($4MM, UFA)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.125MM, UFA)
D Logan Stanley ($1MM, RFA)

Scheifele’s future with the Jets has been in question for a while now and wasn’t resolved over the summer either by trade or extension.  While he doesn’t produce a point per game most seasons, he’s still a number one option for Winnipeg and would be for several other teams.  Accordingly, he’s well-positioned to earn an extra couple million per season at a minimum.  Whether that’s from Winnipeg or another team remains to be seen.

Niederreiter was a victim of the down market in 2022 when he signed this deal with Nashville (who flipped him to Winnipeg near the trade deadline).  He has reached the 20-goal mark in the last three seasons and if he can make it four, he might have a shot at doing a little better than this next summer.  But as a winger best suited for the middle six, his earnings upside is going to be limited.  Gustavsson had a very limited role last season and while he played in a career-best 46 games, he didn’t do much to push for a spot higher in the lineup.  Unless that changes, his next contract should be below the $1MM mark even with arbitration rights.

Dillon has been a capable piece on the second pairing for the past two seasons after being acquired from San Jose.  Offense is hard to come by but as a defender who can kill penalties, block shots, and play physical, there should still be a market for him next summer.  It’d be surprising to see him command a big raise at 33 but a multi-year deal in this price range should be doable.  DeMelo has shown that he can be more than a full-time third-pairing option but beyond last season, points have been hard to come by.  Being a right-shot option helps but again, a big pay jump doesn’t seem likely; instead, another multi-year deal close to this point makes more sense.

Stanley had a hard time locking down a regular spot in the lineup last season, leading to a trade request that appears to have since been rescinded.  But with their depth chart, playing time is still going to be hard to come by.  He’ll basically need to keep going year-to-year until that changes for him either with the Jets or another organization.  Capobianco and Chisholm will be battling for one spot on the roster.  Capobianco held it last year but didn’t play much while Chisholm is waiver-eligible for the first time.  Capobianco is likely to stay close to the minimum salary being a bit older while Chisholm will need to carve out a spot in the lineup to be able to get any sort of significant raise next summer.

Hellebuyck’s situation is well-known by now.  After the season, it didn’t appear as if he was interested in signing a long-term extension to stay in Winnipeg, fueling trade speculation.  However, a reported asking price of $9.5MM on a new contract cooled that speculation pretty quickly.  Even though he’s among the higher-paid starters already, he’s still underpaid relative to the value he brings to the Jets.  A true starter capable of carrying one of the heaviest workloads in the NHL, Hellebuyck has done a lot to keep Winnipeg in the playoff picture over the years.  But he’ll be 31 when his next contract begins, making a max-term agreement a bit less palatable, particularly at his desired price point.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Mason Appleton ($2.167MM, UFA)
F Morgan Barron ($1.35MM, RFA)
F Nikolaj Ehlers ($6MM, UFA)
F Axel Jonsson-Fjallby ($775K, UFA)
F Rasmus Kupari ($1MM, RFA)
F Alex Iafallo ($4MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2MM, UFA)
D Neal Pionk ($5.875MM, UFA)
D Dylan Samberg ($1.4MM, RFA)
D Nate Schmidt ($5.95MM, UFA)
F Gabriel Vilardi ($3.438MM, RFA)

Ehlers, when healthy, has been a top-line producer in recent years.  However, staying healthy has been a challenge for him over the past three seasons.  If he can stay healthy over the next couple of years, he’ll still be well-positioned for a decent-sized raise but if the injury issues continue, it will certainly hurt his market.  Iafallo comes over from Los Angeles in the Pierre-Luc Dubois swap and is in a similar situation as Niederreiter – a middle-six winger who can be moved around the lineup.  However, Iafallo’s scoring touch is a bit more limited which, if not bolstered by the change of scenery, might limit him to a contract similar to this one in 2025, not a more lucrative pact.

Let’s stick with pieces acquired in the Dubois swap.  Vilardi was the headliner of that trade, a 24-year-old who has played center in the past and is coming off a 23-goal campaign despite missing 19 games.  This contract basically amounts to a second bridge deal to see if there’s another gear to get to or if he’ll settle in closer to the offensive range of Iafallo and Niederreiter.  Obviously, whichever outcome he winds up at will go a long way toward determining his next deal but it’s worth noting he’ll have a $3.6MM qualifier.  Kupari was the other player involved in the swap, another former first-round pick but he has been limited in the NHL so far.  He’ll need to at least grab a hold of a third-line spot over the next two seasons to position himself considerably more than his $1.1MM qualifier.

Appleton hasn’t been able to match his output in 2020-21 although he had a chance to do so last year had he stayed healthy.  His production is at the level of a third-liner which is in line with his salary although he plays a bit more than a typical bottom-six forward.  He’ll need to improve his output to have a shot at cracking the $3MM mark on his next deal.  Namestnikov has bounced around lately (eight teams over the last six seasons) and his market value has hovered in this range for the last few years.  Barring any big improvements or injuries, his next one should be in this area as well.  Barron’s first full NHL campaign was a decent one and this is a traditional bridge contract to better assess his future.  Jonsson-Fjallby, meanwhile, was on waivers twice last season and will simply be looking to lock down a full-time roster spot.

On the back end, Schmidt was acquired for relatively cheap at the time with Vancouver looking to clear some cap space.  His first season with them was good but he took a step back last year.  If he’s going to be more of a fourth option moving forward, this will be a negative-value deal for them.  Pionk has also had some ups and downs in his three seasons in Winnipeg.  He hasn’t matched his per-game output from his first year with them but has settled in nicely as a second or third option most nights.  If his ten-goal total from last season is repeatable, he’ll be in good shape for another jump in 2025.  Samberg was a regular most nights in 2022-23, albeit in a limited role.  Like Barron and Kupari, this is a true bridge agreement; he’ll be looking to get into a top-four spot where he’ll be better-positioned for a significant raise.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Kyle Connor ($7.143MM, UFA)
F Adam Lowry ($3.25MM, UFA)

Connor has somewhat quietly averaged more than a point per game over the last four seasons combined with the last two being particularly impressive, including a 47-goal showing in 2021-22.  He’ll be 29 when he signs his next contract and even if his output remains at the 80-point mark it was a year ago, Connor should be in a good spot to get a max-term agreement and another couple million on that pact.  Lowry, the newly-named captain, is on a contract that’s a bit high for a third-liner but he was a bit more productive last season, notching 36 points.  If he can stay around that mark, they’ll do fine with this contract.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $83,206,429 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nikita Alexandrov (one year, $817K)
F Jake Neighbours (two years, $835K)

In his first full professional season, Neighbours split the year between St. Louis and Springfield.  While he was a scorer in the minors, he didn’t have much success in 43 NHL contests.  He should push for a full-time spot this season but barring a big breakthrough in his offensive play, he’s a strong candidate for a short-term second contract.  Alexandrov got his first taste of NHL action last season but, like Neighbours, didn’t produce much with the Blues despite being a quality scorer with the Thunderbirds.  Playing almost exclusively on the fourth line tends to do that.  Now waiver-eligible, Alexandrov should be able to lock down a full-time roster spot but if he’s back in a similar role this season, his second contract is going to check in pretty close to this one.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Sammy Blais ($1MM, UFA)
D Robert Bortuzzo ($950K, UFA)
F Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM, UFA)
D Scott Perunovich ($775K, RFA)
D Calle Rosen ($762.5K, UFA)
D Marco Scandella ($3.275MM, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($775K, UFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($2.625MM, UFA)*

*-Detroit is retaining an additional $2.625MM on Vrana’s contract

Kapanen was a somewhat surprising waiver claim from Pittsburgh late in the season as GM Doug Armstrong opted to take an extended look at him.  After struggling with the Penguins, he finished up strong with the Blues but will need to carry that type of performance over for a full season if he wants a shot at beating this price tag on his next deal.  Vrana was limited to just 25 NHL games last year between Detroit and St. Louis but was quite productive with the Blues, notching 10 goals in 20 games.  He will need to stay healthy and keep up that scoring pace if he is going to have any chances of approaching the $5MM mark on his next deal.

Blais struggled last season with the Rangers and was basically a throw-in on the Vladimir Tarasenko trade to help make the money work.  But his return to St. Louis rekindled his production.  Blais opted to sign an early extension not long after the swap, a move that might have cost him a bit of money had he tested the market.  If he remains a double-digit scorer while chipping in with his usual physicality, he’ll be in line for a raise next summer.  Sundqvist didn’t get much traction on the open market this summer despite having the second-highest point total of his career.  If he’s in a depth role this season, he’ll have a hard time significantly bolstering his market but a spot on the third line could at least get him a small boost.

Scandella did well when he first joined St. Louis, quickly earning this contract which was a four-year deal.  Things haven’t gone well at all since then as he has battled injuries and struggled when healthy.  Unless something changes, his market value will be closer to the $1MM range next summer than the $3MM range.  Bortuzzo is a prototypical depth defender best used as a sixth or seventh option.  Those players usually sign for close to the minimum which is what he’ll need to take again if he wants to stick around.

Rosen saw limited action last season but was pretty productive with eight goals and ten assists in 49 games.  That should turn some heads around the league and if he’s able to stick on the roster full-time this year as well, he could at least get closer to the $1MM mark next summer.  Perunovich will be looking to unseat Rosen (or someone else).  A productive scorer in both college and the AHL, injuries have derailed his development so far.  He’s on a one-year minimum contract and if he can stay healthy, he should be able to play his way into the mix.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Pavel Buchnevich ($5.8MM, UFA)
G Joel Hofer ($775K, RFA)
F Alexey Toropchenko ($1.25MM, RFA)
D Tyler Tucker ($800K, RFA)

Buchnevich has found another level since joining St. Louis two years ago.  While he did battle some injury trouble, last season was still by far his second-best season offensively and his second straight showing of over a point per game.  After being more of a second liner with the Rangers in terms of production, he has become a legitimate top-line winger with the Blues while receiving second-line money, giving them a nice bang for their buck.  Assuming he’s able to continue that over the next two seasons, Buchnevich could very well add a couple million per season to his next cap hit while pushing for close to a max-term deal; he’ll be 30 when his next contract kicks in.

The other three players in this group are the bridge brigade.  Toropchenko held down a regular spot for most of last season, albeit in a limited role which made a short-term second contract an obvious outcome.  Moving onto the third line with some regularity will help boost his next deal.  Tucker spent the bulk of last season in the minors but did well in limited action when he was up.  Now waiver-eligible, this deal should secure him at least the seventh spot on the depth chart; he’ll need to play his way into a regular role to get any sort of sizable raise.  As for Hofer, he has primarily played in the minors so far which limited his earnings upside.  If he fares well in the second-string role for two years, he should more than double this price tag.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Kevin Hayes ($3.571MM, UFA)*
D Nick Leddy ($4MM, UFA)
F Brandon Saad ($4.5MM, UFA)

*-Philadelphia is retaining an additional $3.571MM per season on Hayes’ deal

Saad hasn’t reached the 50-point mark since 2016-17 with Columbus but has settled in as a capable and somewhat consistent secondary scorer.  This contract isn’t a bargain but they’ve received a decent return on it so far.  Three more years around the 20-goal mark might give him a shot at a short-term deal close to this amount in 2026.  Hayes comes over from Philadelphia who practically gave him away with retention.  St. Louis should benefit nicely; while he’s not the $7MM-plus player his full contract is, he should easily be able to live up to half of that.

Leddy’s first full season with the Blues was a bit of a mixed bag.  He logged some big minutes but didn’t provide a whole lot offensively while his possession numbers weren’t the strongest either.  There were plenty of underachievers a year ago in St. Louis but they’ll be counting on more from him this season to get better bang for their buck.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $75,593,365 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Luke Evangelista (two years, $797.5K)
F Juuso Parssinen (one year, $850.8K)
F Philip Tomasino (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Evangelista: $82.5K
Parssinen: $57.5K
Tomasino: $212.5K
Total: $352.5K

After being a full-time regular in his rookie year, Tomasino spent half of last season in the minors before being brought up in February where he was quite productive with 18 points in 31 games.  If he can push through and reach 50 points, it’s possible that he’s a candidate to bypass a bridge contract but at this point, a two-year agreement just past the $2MM mark seems like a possible landing spot for him.  His bonus is an ‘A’ one and as long as he’s up for the full season and stays healthy, he should be able to reach it.

Parssinen also started in the minors last season although he was recalled to stay much earlier back in November.  The 45 games he played in 2022-23 were his first at the NHL level which, coupled with however many he plays this year, probably won’t be enough for a long-term agreement.  Evangelista was up and down for most of last season but was quite productive in a limited role in Nashville with 15 points in just 24 games which should earn him a full-time look this year.  How he fares will go a long way toward determining if he’s a candidate for a long-term second deal or not.  Both he and Parssinen’s bonuses are games played-based.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Tyson Barrie ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Alexandre Carrier ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Dante Fabbro ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Denis Gurianov ($850K, UFA)
F Mark Jankowski ($775K, UFA)
G Kevin Lankinen ($2MM, UFA)
F Michael McCarron ($775K, UFA)
F Thomas Novak ($800K, UFA)
F Kiefer Sherwood ($775K, UFA)
F Cole Smith ($775K, UFA)
F Yakov Trenin ($1.7MM, UFA)

Trenin wasn’t quite able to get back to the 17-goal mark following a breakout 2021-22 campaign but he was able to reach 24 points again for the second straight year.  However, as a physical winger, he’s still well-positioned to land a raise past the $2MM AAV should he make it to the open market next summer.  Gurianov comes over after being non-tendered by Montreal following a rough year that saw him score just seven goals in 66 games.  If he wants to get some stability and security on a contract, he’ll need to get back to pushing toward the 20-goal mark, not the 20-point plateau.

Novak is one of the more intriguing pending UFAs in this group.  This time a year ago, he was a fringe NHL player and he even spent 25 games in the minors a year ago.  However, he was extremely productive with Nashville, recording 17 goals and 26 assists in just 51 games.  Considering his past and the fact he was up and down through the first half of last year, Novak opted to take a guaranteed one-way offer, a move that likely left money on the table considering how he finished the year.  Even if he winds up with 43 points over a full season instead of 60% of one, he’s well-positioned to earn a sizable raise when he puts pen to paper on his next deal.  There’s a good chance the starting salary on it will beat his career earnings.

Smith was a full-time NHLer for the first time last season after a productive campaign with AHL Milwaukee the year before.  With nearly 200 hits in 69 games, he’s the type of energetic forward that teams often like on the fourth line.  If he can lock down a regular role again this year, he could push for a seven-figure deal next summer.  Jankowski, Sherwood, and McCarron will all be in the mix in training camp but even if they can secure a regular role, their respective histories suggest that they’re likely to continue to hover around the minimum salary moving forward.

Barrie had one of the best statistical seasons of his career last year with 55 points in 85 (yes, 85) games between Edmonton and Nashville.  However, his defensive struggles have hampered him in his previous times through free agency and it seems likely that will happen again.  A deal around this one is certainly possible but getting much more will be difficult.  After a breakout year in 2021-22, Carrier struggled last season both in terms of performance and injury-wise.  He was a top-four piece in 2021-22 but more of a third-pairing one last year.  If he’s the former in 2023-24, he’ll be in line for at least a small raise.  If he’s the latter, he should expect a drop closer to the $1MM range.  Fabbro’s future in Nashville has been subject to speculation in recent years as he has stagnated from a development perspective.  His ATOI went to a four-year low last season while his offensive production was cut in half.  This deal feels like it could be a last-chance opportunity and if he doesn’t rebound under new head coach Andrew Brunette, he’s quite likely going to be in trade speculation once again.

Lankinen didn’t see a lot of action last season, making just 18 starts.  However, his save percentage of .916 was well above the league average which earned him a small raise to stick around.  Lankinen still only has 88 career NHL appearances under his belt which limits his earnings upside but another season like 2022-23 could put him in a spot where another small raise should be achievable.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Cody Glass ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Gustav Nyquist ($3.185MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($5MM, UFA)

Last season saw Nyquist deal with a shoulder injury that ended his regular season early while he wasn’t able to produce at the level he was accustomed to before then.  He did put forth a strong playoff showing with Minnesota but the market wasn’t kind to many wingers this summer.  This price point is certainly reasonable for a middle-six winger and if he rebounds offensively, it will become a team-friendly deal.  After struggling the previous few seasons, Glass made some big strides last season, setting career highs across the board while establishing himself as an every-game regular.  He’s not at the level his original draft slot might suggest but now he looks like at least a capable part of Nashville’s secondary core moving forward.  This deal amounts to a second bridge contract, giving both sides more time to assess things; he’ll have one year of arbitration eligibility remaining in 2025.

It wasn’t that long ago that there were questions about Saros’ ability to hold up as a starter.  It’s safe to say those have long been dealt with as he was once again one of the top goalies league-wide last season while playing the most minutes for the second year in a row.  Being undersized will scare some teams off if he makes it to the open market in 2025 but if he has two more years like this before getting there, Saros should find himself closer to the upper end of the salary scale for netminders.  Probably not right at the top but an extra couple million per season (if not a bit more) should be achievable.  That would put him in the top handful of goaltenders across the league which, based on his recent play, is exactly where he should be.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Jeremy Lauzon ($2MM, UFA)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Colton Sissons ($2.875MM, UFA)

Sissons’ deal has always been a strange one as the Preds inked him to a seven-year deal back in 2019 hoping his offense would come around.  It didn’t for a while but has been a bit better the last couple of seasons, hovering around the 30-point mark.  That, coupled with his two-way game, has given Nashville a decent return the last couple of years.

McDonagh came over as a salary dump from Tampa Bay but is still capable of playing top-four minutes for now.  Unfortunately for the Predators, his offensive output has fallen off the last few years which makes this a negative-value contract.  They’re able to absorb it without too much issue right now, however.  Schenn had a good showing with Vancouver and Toronto last season, making him one of the more sought-after blueliners this summer.  He’s best used on the third pairing which makes this an overpay relative to his role but with their current cap space, they can afford it.  Lauzon’s deal was an odd one as his play to that point wasn’t worth the cap hit.  Poile was hoping the 26-year-old had another gear to get to.  If he can over the next few years, this will hold up nicely but if he remains a third-pairing depth option, it’s another overpayment.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

at CDT | by 8 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $81,856,921 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Brock Faber (two years, $925K)
F Marco Rossi (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Rossi: $850K

Rossi was viewed as a long-term option down the middle when they drafted him ninth overall in 2020 but it hasn’t happened just yet.  His post-draft season saw him battle through a life-threatening heart scare while his first two seasons in Minnesota’s system have been spent primarily in the minors.  He averaged close to a point per game in Iowa so the skills are certainly there.  If he can translate that to the NHL (he struggled in that regard last season), he could be a fixture in their lineup for a long time and as we’ve seen, productive centers can get paid quickly.

Faber joined the Wild late in the season and made an early mark, skating as a regular for them in the playoffs.  He should have a leg up on a roster spot for this year.  However, unless he sees a fair bit of power play time, it seems unlikely that Faber will be in a spot to command a long-term extension and bypass a bridge deal altogether.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Connor Dewar ($800K, RFA)
F Brandon Duhaime ($1.1MM, UFA)
G Marc-Andre Fleury ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($2MM, UFA)
F Marcus Foligno ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Pat Maroon ($800K, UFA)*
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM, UFA)

*-Tampa Bay is retaining an additional $200K on Maroon’s contract

Zuccarello is a rare example of a player becoming more productive the older he gets.  After seeing his output dip at the end of his tenure with the Rangers and hover near that level in his first two years with Minnesota, the 36-year-old has had his two best offensive showings over the past two seasons.  Yes, some of that is attributable to the player lining up on his opposite wing but it would be hard to walk away from entirely who produces that much in the hopes that someone cheaper could produce as much as that same winger.  Independently, a player with Zuccarello’s recent production could make a case for a raise but with his age, that could be tough.  At this point, a one-year deal worth around $5MM could work for both sides with the AAV dropping on a two-year agreement.

Foligno looked to have turned the corner in 2021-22, posting a career year offensively but came up well short of that last season.  If he stays around the 25-30-point mark, he could command a deal similar in size to this one but as teams look to make their bottom six cheaper, he could also feel the squeeze a little bit.  Hartman wasn’t quite able to put the same numbers as his breakout 2021-22 campaign either but produced at better than a 50-point pace which is still a fantastic return on his current contract.  That’s second-line production and a second-line middleman can command more than $5MM per season on the open market.

Duhaime is a capable fourth liner who plays with plenty of physicality and chips in a bit offensively but the market for those players is starting to flat-line.  A small raise isn’t impossible – especially if he can crack the double-digit mark in goals but the AAV should still start with a one.  Maroon comes over from the Lightning to help fill the void created by the departure of Ryan Reaves to Toronto.  He fits on the fourth line but his market value shouldn’t be much higher than his current deal.  As for Dewar, the 24-year-old spent plenty of time on the fourth line as well but plays center and kills penalties, giving him a bit more earnings upside.  A small bump on the 18 points he had last season could give him a shot at coming close to doubling this contract, especially with arbitration eligibility.

Goligoski’s homecoming has been up and down, to say the least.  His first season (2021-22) saw him play an important role and when he signed this deal, it looked like a team-friendly one.  However, he struggled to crack the lineup last season and didn’t play well when he was in.  Now, it’s a deal they’d almost certainly like to move if they could but with his struggles and trade protection, that will be easier said than done and another contract is far from a guarantee.

Fleury’s first full season with Minnesota was decent.  He’s no longer a top starter but his numbers were better than the NHL average and getting that performance for the cost of a good backup is fine.  He turns 39 in November so it’s possible he’s entering his final NHL campaign.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Marcus Johansson ($2MM, UFA)
D Jon Merrill ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Jacob Middleton ($2.45MM, UFA)

The first time Minnesota acquired Johansson, things didn’t go very well.  He battled injuries and struggled when he was in the lineup.  When GM Bill Guerin brought him back at the trade deadline, it was a different story as he averaged nearly a point per game down the stretch.  That’s unsustainable for him but at this price point, they don’t need that level of production.  If he can hover around the 30-35-point mark, they’ll do well with this contract.

Middleton isn’t going to light up the scoresheet but he’s a capable stay-at-home defender who’s best suited for a fourth or fifth role on the depth chart.  That’s basically where he stands with the Wild and if he wants to push himself into a higher salary tier, his production will need to come around.  Otherwise, his market value in 2025 might be around the $3.5MM range.  Merrill is a capable depth piece that gives Minnesota some value when he’s a regular in the lineup but is overpaid when he’s in the reserve role.  If they need to open up some cap space, waiving and assigning him to the minors and calling up a cheaper defender would give them a few hundred thousand to work with.

Signed Through 2025-26

G Filip Gustavsson ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Kirill Kaprizov ($9MM, UFA)

Minnesota wanted a max-term deal for Kaprizov when his entry-level deal was up back in 2021 but the winger wasn’t particularly interested in one so they settled on this one instead, an agreement that bought a little more team control but positioned him to land a significant max-term contract in 2029 if he wants one at that point.  His numbers dipped a bit last season but he still played at a 92-point pace on the heels of a 105-point showing the year before.  A continuation of that level of production coupled with a projected jump in the salary cap between now and then should give Kaprizov a serious chance at pushing for a contract that would break the current record for a winger ($11.643MM).

A year ago, the thought of Gustavsson having this contract would have been shocking.  After all, he failed to establish himself as even a regular backup in Ottawa.  However, he was second in the league in GAA and SV% last season, albeit in just 37 starts.  As a result, this deal is somewhat of a compromise by paying him at the top end for a platoon option which is reflective of the role he might still have this season.  If he becomes a true number one, however, this will be a steal quickly.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $83,817,829 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Thomas Harley (one year, $863K)
F Wyatt Johnston (two years, $894K)
D Nils Lundkvist (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Lundkvist: $850K
Harley: $637.5K
Total: $1.4875MM

Johnston could have gone back to junior last season but it’s safe to say that Dallas made the right call with him as he potted 24 goals in his age-19 campaign.  If he can stick in their top six and take a step or two forward offensively, he’s a strong candidate to bypass a bridge deal, especially with a big-ticket one coming off the books at the same time that he needs his second contract.

Dallas paid a high price to get Lundkvist from the Rangers last season but he wound up only playing a limited role.  They’re banking on him taking a step forward but even so, he’s a strong candidate for a short-term second contract, one that could check in around the $1.5MM range.  At this point, it doesn’t seem too likely that he’ll hit his four ‘A’ bonuses.  The Stars are banking on Harley to make the jump full-time this season after being a regular in the playoffs.  With some good numbers in the minors, he could reach one or two of his three ‘A’ bonuses but from a contract standpoint, like Lundkvist, he’s likely heading for a bridge deal as well.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Gavin Bayreuther ($775K, UFA)
F Ty Dellandrea ($900K, RFA)
F Matt Duchene ($3MM, UFA)
D Jani Hakanpaa ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Joe Pavelski ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Sam Steel ($850K, RFA)
G Scott Wedgewood ($1MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Pavelski: $2MM

Duchene was a late entrant to the market which likely didn’t help his cause but he landed in a good spot here.  In a more secondary role, he could thrive and in doing so, give the Stars some surplus value while better positioning himself for a longer-term agreement next summer.  Smith struggled last season between Boston and Washington, even clearing waivers at one point in December thanks to his contract.  He’s an interesting fit in the sense that he’s not a prototypical bottom-six forward but will be in that role here.  A bounce-back showing could give him a small bump next summer but not to the level of the $3.25MM he made before.

Pavelski’s fourth season with the Stars was almost as good as his third, one that saw him set career highs in assists and points.  He came up a bit shy of the point total but still finished third in scoring in a year that saw him turn 39.  Pavelski almost certainly left money on the table to sign what should be a team-friendly extension back in January as let’s face it, the market for a center producing close to a point per game is much higher than his guaranteed salary.  The structure of this agreement is notable as the bonuses are very easy to achieve – $1MM at 10 games played and another $1MM at 20.  Doing it that way allows Dallas to squeak him in on the books this year with his base salary but it’s safe to say they’re heading for an overage penalty.

Dallas basically had to push Dellandrea to take a one-year deal to make things work cap-wise.  He’ll have arbitration rights next summer though and if he progresses as expected, his AAV should shoot past the $2MM mark.  Steel has been non-tendered for two straight years now but gives Dallas some extra depth down the middle.  However, it’s clear he’ll need to find another gear offensively if he wants a shot at a seven-figure deal as his market value the last two summers hasn’t been strong.

Hakanpaa is the type of physical depth defender many teams covet and it doesn’t hurt that he’s a right-hand shot.  Dallas actually used him on the second pairing with some regularity last season and if he’s in that role again, doubling his current price tag won’t be out of the question, especially after seeing Radko Gudas get three years at $4MM per season earlier this summer.  Bayruether returns after spending a few years with Columbus and will push for the seventh spot on the depth chart.  This is a spot on their salary hierarchy that will need to stay near the minimum moving forward.

Wedgewood had his best season, albeit in a relatively limited role for a backup by current standards as he made just 21 appearances.  His track record isn’t strong (or long) enough to command the type of money that top backups on the open market get but another showing like last year could push him closer to the $2MM mark if he looks for top dollar.  Staying in Dallas, however, would likely mean needing to leave some money on the table.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Jamie Benn ($9.5MM, UFA)
F Evgenii Dadonov ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Radek Faksa ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Joel Hanley ($787.5K, UFA)
D Esa Lindell ($5.8MM, UFA)
G Jake Oettinger ($4MM, RFA)
D Ryan Suter ($3.65MM, UFA)

After seeing his production drop sharply over the last three years, Benn had a resurgent campaign, finishing second on the team in scoring.  It wouldn’t be fair to expect that to happen again – and the deal is still very much above-market – but it’s not quite the anchor it was long ago.  Faksa’s offense just hasn’t come around.  He’s a strong defensive center that’s above average at the faceoff dot but someone in that type of role should be making about a million less.  Gone are the days of the argument of offensive potential so it’s tough to see him beating this contract in 2025.  Dadonov did well after coming over in a late-season trade but his struggles with Montreal hurt his value, allowing the Stars to sneak in with a deal that’s more than reasonable for a middle-six option.

Lindell is another player whose scoring didn’t come around quite as much as Dallas would have hoped for.  He’s still capable of logging big minutes and anchoring the penalty kill so they’re still getting a reasonable return but they’re probably expecting a bit more from him and he’ll need to produce more if he wants to land a big pay increase two years from now.  They also were probably expecting a bit more from Suter, a player who shouldn’t be logging 20 minutes a night at this stage of his career but was pressed into that spot frequently.  It’s hard to see him signing another contract at this point – he’ll be 40 when this deal is up – but if he does, it should be for considerably less.  Hanley has been a depth defender for the last few years and will continue to hover around the NHL minimum moving forward unless he can establish himself as a full-time third-pairing player.

Oettinger’s bridge contract already looks like a bargain as he was one of the top goalies in the league last season.  The backloaded structure guarantees an increase to $4.8MM for his qualifying offer (which also carries arbitration eligibility) but if he has two more years like this, he’ll be well-positioned to become one of the top-paid netminders in the league.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Mason Marchment ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Jason Robertson ($7.75MM, RFA)

Robertson is on the non-traditional bridge contract, a four-year agreement that bought out only RFA years while still having team control when it expires.  At that point, it’s going to take a substantial offer to get him on a long-term agreement.  Robertson will be owed a $9.3MM qualifying offer (plus arbitration eligibility) but it will take a million or two more if he continues on his current trajectory.  Marchment, a late-bloomer, took a step back last season while dealing with injuries once again.  There’s a power forward premium in his deal but they’d still like to see him closer to the 40-point mark to get a good return on this deal and set him up for a similar-sized agreement in 2026.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $88,475,000 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to make the opening roster

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Andrew Cogliano ($825K, UFA)
F Jonathan Drouin ($825K, UFA)
G Pavel Francouz ($2MM, UFA)
D/F Kurtis MacDermid ($987.5K, UFA)
F Ben Meyers ($775K, RFA)
F Fredrik Olofsson ($775K, UFA)
D Devon Toews ($4.1MM, UFA)

With cap space at a premium, the Avs had to shop for some bargains in free agency this summer.  Drouin comes over from Montreal coming off a year that saw him score just twice although he added 27 assists.  If he can lock down a role in the middle six, it won’t take much for them to get surplus value on this deal while he’d be positioned for a better contract a year from now.  Cogliano returns after being one of the few consistently effective bottom-six forwards for Colorado last season.  At 36, he’ll be going year-to-year from now on in all likelihood.

Meyers struggled in half a season with the Avalanche in 2022-23 but should get another look while Olofsson will push for a spot as well after being acquired from Dallas.  Those spots on the depth chart will need to stay at or close to the league minimum moving forward.  MacDermid can play both the wing and on the back end but while the versatility is nice, his playing time is limited in either role.  That makes him more of an end of the roster candidate which will keep his next cap hit around this price point.

The same certainly can’t be said about Toews.  Since being acquired from the Islanders as a salary cap casualty three years ago, he has blossomed into a legitimate top-pairing defender.  In each of the last two seasons, he has recorded at least 50 points and logged more than 25 minutes a night.  Only four other blueliners in the league are in that category: Roman Josi, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, and Cale Makar.  Not a bad group to be in.  Josi, Hughes, and Makar are already on pricey long-term deals and Dahlin is a year away from doing so.  Meanwhile, Toews is on the books at second-pairing money for another ten months.  He’ll be doubling it and then some soon enough.

Francouz, when healthy, has been quite an effective goalie for Colorado, posting a career save percentage of .919.  However, over four seasons, he has only played in 73 games so it’s still a pretty small sample size.  That is definitely limiting his earnings upside as he needs to show he can stay healthy for a full year and maintain that strong level of play.  If he can do that, his AAV could push up toward the $4MM range if he looks to test the open market.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Bowen Byram ($3.85MM, RFA)
G Alexandar Georgiev ($3.2MM, UFA)
F Ryan Johansen ($4MM, UFA)*
F Logan O’Connor ($1.05MM, UFA)
F Mikko Rantanen ($9.25MM, UFA)

*-Nashville is retaining an additional $4MM on Johansen’s contract

Rantanen has flown under the radar to an extent but he’s undoubtedly a premier winger in his own right and is coming off a career year that saw him score 55 goals.  If he’s able to stay near that rate over the next two years, he’ll have a strong chance of beating Artemi Panarin ($11.643MM) for the most expensive contract given to a winger in NHL history.  Johansen hasn’t lived up to his contract but with the Preds eating half of it, Johansen should provide some value assuming he locks up the second center position.  If he hovers around the 40-point mark, his next deal should check in around what Colorado will be paying him for the next two years.  O’Connor has worked his way from being a depth piece to a reliable third liner at a below-market rate.  Even if he stays in the mid-20-point range, he could add another million to his next deal.

Byram’s acceptance of a bridge contract this summer came as little surprise.  When healthy, he has become an impactful blueliner but with Colorado’s cap situation and his concussion history, it would have been difficult to find a long-term agreement that worked for both sides.  Notably, the deal is significantly backloaded, pushing the qualifying offer to $4.62MM.  That said, if Byram can stay healthy these next two seasons, there’s a very good chance he’d be getting considerably more than that on a long-term pact at that time.

Georgiev was somewhat of a risky acquisition by then-GM Joe Sakic.  He was coming off a down year and hadn’t yet played 35 games in an NHL season.  Fast forward to one year later and he put up career-best numbers across the board in 62 appearances.  Now, he is a legitimate starter for them making platoon money.  Two more years like this would push his price tag into the range of the goalie he replaced (Darcy Kuemper who received five years at $5.25MM from Washington).

Signed Through 2025-26

D Josh Manson ($4.5MM, UFA)

Manson’s first full season with Colorado didn’t go well as he was limited to just 27 games due to multiple lower-body injuries.  And when he was in the lineup, his deployment was that of a fifth defender most nights.  This price tag for that role is on the high side and it has now been four straight years that Manson has missed significant time due to injury.  At this point, it seems like it will be difficult for the Avs to get a good return on this contract.

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