Headlines

Go To MLB Trade Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Salary Cap Deep Dive 2023

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR concludes its look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $85,054,827 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Connor McMichael (one year, $863K)
F Aliaksei Protas (one year, $789K)

Potential Bonuses
Protas: $82.5K

Last season was a step back for McMichael who went from being a regular in Washington to a regular in Hershey.  This year, he’s back to being a regular but hasn’t been all that productive despite seeing a lot of top-six minutes.  While he’s still almost certainly part of their future plans, he’s likely heading for a bridge contract around double his current price tag.  Protas has already signed a new deal which we’ll cover later but it’s worth noting his bonuses are based on games played.  A full-time regular, Protas should max out on those as long as he stays healthy.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Joel Edmundson ($1.75MM, UFA)*
F Beck Malenstyn ($762.5K, RFA)
F Anthony Mantha ($5.7MM, UFA)
F Max Pacioretty ($2MM, UFA)
D Rasmus Sandin ($1.4MM, RFA)

*-Montreal is retaining an additional $1.75MM on Edmundson’s contract.

Potential Bonuses
Pacioretty: $2MM

After struggling with consistency in Detroit, Mantha hasn’t been able to improve on that with the Capitals.  At times, he plays like a top-liner and at others, he’s barely noticeable.  While he has played better as of late, it’s hard to see him matching his current contract.  A one-year pillow deal could be a viable option while a multi-year agreement likely starts with a four.  Pacioretty missed more time than expected while recovering from his second Achilles surgery and has been relatively quiet since returning.  Meanwhile, $1.5MM of his games-played bonuses have already been met while the final $500K should be reached this week.  There will still be a market for Pacioretty this summer but it’s likely to be a deal structured similar to this one with some performance bonuses in there.

Aube-Kubel cleared waivers at the beginning of the season but has done relatively well with Washington where he has still spent most of the year.  That said, as a long-term fourth liner, his earnings upside is going to be limited this summer and a small cut in pay isn’t out of the question.  The same can’t be said for Malenstyn who has locked down a full-time roster spot, spending a lot of time on the third line.  His offensive numbers are low enough that his next deal won’t be too expensive but he should at least double his current cap hit, especially with arbitration eligibility.

Edmundson battled injury issues early in the season and has been limited to duty on the third pairing since returning.  With injuries causing him to miss significant time over the last few years, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Edmundson’s next deal come closer to what Washington is paying him now compared to his full $3.5MM AAV.  As for Sandin, he hasn’t been able to keep up the level of production he had down the stretch last year but he is still logging top-four minutes and is a part of their longer-term plans.  He’s owed a $1.6MM qualifying offer but could more than double that on a long-term agreement that buys out some of his UFA-eligible seasons.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Alexander Alexeyev ($825K, RFA)
F Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2MM, UFA)
D Ethan Bear ($2.0625MM, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8MM, UFA)
G Charlie Lindgren ($1.1MM, UFA)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Michael Sgarbossa ($775K, UFA)

Backstrom was able to return from hip resurfacing surgery last season where he performed relatively well, not so much relative to his contract but simply for coming back and being a top-six player.  However, he struggled early on this season before shutting it down with lingering pain.  He’s on LTIR and may very well stay there through next year.

The hope was that Kuznetsov would rediscover his offensive touch under new head coach Spencer Carbery after a trade failed to materialize in the summer.  Instead, he struggled through the first half of the year and is now in the Player Assistance Program.  Assuming he returns from that, it’s quite unlikely that he’ll be able to command anywhere close to this type of contract in 2025; something in the $4MM range might be the more realistic target.

Oshie provided plenty of value on this deal early on but it was always expected that the final couple of years could be a drag on Washington’s cap.  He’ll be 38 when this deal is up so if there is another contract for him, it’s likely to be a bonus-laden one with a base price tag between a quarter and a third of what it is now.

Dowd has worked his way from being a depth player to a capable third liner since joining the Capitals.  He doesn’t provide enough scoring to really top out his earnings but as a good penalty killer and someone who can hold his own at the faceoff dot, he could plausibly double his current cost on a multi-year deal in 2025.  As for Sgarbossa, he’s up with Kuznetsov out of the lineup and has been an AHL recall for several years now.  That doesn’t seem likely to change unless he can grab hold of a full-time spot while he’s up.

Bear recently signed this contract and will be looking to rebuild some value after an injury sustained at the Worlds kept him out for nearly half the season.  His contract is backloaded – next year’s salary sits at $2.75MM – and that price tag is likely where he’s hoping his next contract will land, assuming he can move into a more prominent spot in the lineup next season.  Alexeyev is a waiver-blocked young defender who has had a hard time cracking the lineup so far this season.  Until he’s able to grab a hold of a spot, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to command much more than this.

Lindgren has slowly worked his way from a third-string goaltender for the first several years of his professional career to a decent backup early in his time with Washington to now a strong-side platoon netminder as he is in the midst of a career year.  Considering the market value for a decent platoon option is three times his current price tag (if not a bit more for some), the Capitals are getting great value here.  Meanwhile, if Lindgren can keep up his level of play through next season, he will be in line for a substantial jump in pay, one that could push past the $4MM mark on a multi-year agreement based on contracts handed out to similar netminders in recent years.

Signed Through 2025-26

D John Carlson ($8MM, UFA)
D Martin Fehervary ($2.675MM, RFA)
D Nick Jensen ($4.05MM, UFA)
F Sonny Milano ($1.9MM, UFA)
F Alex Ovechkin ($9.5MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($3MM, UFA)

Ovechkin provided a decent return on the first two years of his contract but he has slowed down considerably this season despite a recent hot stretch.  This is a legacy deal as he tries to chase down the all-time goal record.  It wouldn’t be surprising if this is his last NHL contract unless he winds up just a few tallies short and takes a one-year agreement to take one final crack at Wayne Gretzky’s mark.  In that instance, a bonus-laden deal with a much lower base salary would be quite likely.  Milano had to settle for a league-minimum contract in-season last year but played well enough to get some stability.  A back-to-back 30-plus-point player, he’ll give Washington some good value if he can stay around that level of production while setting himself up for a small raise down the road.

At his peak, Carlson was one of the premier point producers from the back end.  Those days are gone now although he’s still above average on that front while logging number one minutes.  As long as that continues to be the case, they’ll get a reasonable return on this contract.  Having said that, by the time he goes to sign his next deal, it will almost certainly come in a few million below this.  Jensen had a career year last season to earn this contract but hasn’t been able to play at the same level.  As a right-shot defender who can play on the second pairing, it’s not all bad news but right now, this contract looks like a bit of an overpayment especially with him being 33 already.  Accordingly, it’s hard to see him looking at a raise in 2026.

The same can be said for van Riemsdyk who turned his best year into a three-year deal as well but hasn’t been able to repeat it this season.  More of a player best suited as a fifth option on a third pairing, this price tag is also a bit on the high side based on van Riemsdyk’s current level of performance.  If he stays at that level for the rest of the deal, he’ll be looking at a pay cut as well.  Fehervary has become a capable checking blueliner, one that plays with plenty of physicality.  With a limited offensive skill set, he won’t produce enough to command a significant raise with his arbitration rights in 2026 but a small one should be coming.  With his deal being front-loaded, his qualifying offer checks in at just over $1MM so that won’t be a factor in discussions.

Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

at CDT | by 7 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $84,629,281 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None on the active roster.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Jeff Carter ($3.125MM, UFA)
F Jake Guentzel ($6MM, UFA)
F Jansen Harkins ($850K, UFA)
D Pierre-Olivier Joseph ($850K, RFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($800K, UFA)

Guentzel’s situation is well-known at this point.  There haven’t been any substantive discussions about a new deal but the 29-year-old is set to be one of the top forwards available in free agency this summer and will be eyeing a multi-million-dollar raise on a long-term agreement.  That will still be the case whether it’s Pittsburgh or someone else giving it to him.  Whoever has him on their roster after the trade deadline will be the only team that can offer the max-term eight-year deal; everyone else will be limited to seven.

Carter did well in his first year and a bit with the Penguins, earning this extension as a reward.  But on this contract, he has struggled considerably, especially this season.  Now 39, it’s fair to wonder if this will be his final year.  If it’s not, he’ll be looking at a deal worth close to the league minimum with perhaps some small incentives.  Harkins came over in October as a waiver claim before clearing waivers less than three weeks later.  Despite that, he has spent most of the season in the NHL on the fourth line.  That gives him a chance at securing another one-way contract but it’s also likely to be at or very close to the $775K minimum salary.

Joseph has battled injuries this season and hasn’t played a lot when he’s healthy.  While his qualifying offer is for just under $900K, tendering it would give him arbitration eligibility.  With over 100 NHL games under his belt, the potential award could be more than what Pittsburgh would want to pay him.  If they can reach a deal beforehand, it should come in close to the $1MM mark.  Ruhwedel has been a serviceable depth piece for several years now and being a right-shot player certainly helps his value.  Another one-way contract close to this one should be doable.

After a particularly rough showing last season with Detroit, Nedeljkovic has bounced back quite nicely with his best performance since his breakout stretch in 2020-21.  If teams feel this level of play is sustainable, then he could conceivably double this on the open market.  But with the year-to-year volatility, something closer to the $2.75MM range may be more realistic.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Sidney Crosby ($8.7MM, UFA)
F Lars Eller ($2.45MM, UFA)
D John Ludvig ($775K, RFA)
F Matt Nieto ($900K, UFA)
F Drew O’Connor ($925K, UFA)
D Marcus Pettersson ($4.025MM, UFA)
F Jesse Puljujarvi ($800K, UFA)
F Reilly Smith ($5MM, UFA)

Crosby has been a Penguin for his entire 19-year NHL career and while some have openly speculated about him being traded, that doesn’t seem like a probable outcome at this point.  He will have just turned 38 when the 2025-26 season gets underway so another multi-year agreement (between two and four years) isn’t entirely unrealistic.  For Pittsburgh, the longer the term of the offer, the lower the cap hit would be, similar to some of the other deals their long-term veterans have received.  Considering how he has performed this season, there’s a chance that his next contract could carry the same cap charge as this one and the one that preceded it.

Smith came over from Vegas in a cap-dumping move but he’s still a capable middle-six player.  However, this price point is on the high side for someone in that role based on his usage with the Penguins.  If he winds up being in the 40-point range (compared to the 56 he had in his final year with the Golden Knights), Smith may need to take a small pay cut heading into his age-34 campaign in 2025.  Eller is still a serviceable third-line center for now but he’ll be 36 when his next contract starts.  Assuming he slows down a bit more, he’ll likely have to go year-to-year with a price tag a bit below this one.

O’Connor had been more of a role player until this season where he’s averaging nearly 15 minutes a night while setting career highs offensively.  If that usage and production hold next season, he could at least double his current price tag on his next deal.  Nieto has battled injuries this year but, when healthy, has been a regular on the fourth line, a role he is used to holding.  This has been his price range for the last two contracts and it’s unlikely that will change on his next one.  Puljujarvi’s market was recently set with the winger finally signing earlier this month.  Unless he can establish himself as a top-nine regular, he’ll continue to be on the fringes, keeping his price tag close to the minimum.

Pettersson had a couple of rough seasons but turned things around last year and has been even better in 2023-24, showing he can still be a top-half defender on a depth chart.  However, his lack of offensive output most years will limit his earnings upside.  Still, another long-term agreement and at least a small raise should be doable, an outcome that would have been surprising just a couple of years ago.  Ludvig was a waiver claim but an early-season concussion has limited him thus far.  If he can stick around as even a seventh defenseman, however, he could land at least a mild raise a couple of years from now.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Noel Acciari ($2MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($6.1MM, UFA)

Malkin has certainly slowed down this season but at 37, that’s to be expected.  He’s still producing at a top-six rate so for now, they’re getting a good return.  As he ages, however, the value of this contract will drop.  Similar to the Crosby discussion, that’s the trade-off for getting an AAV that’s lower than what his market value would have been otherwise.  Acciari has shown flashes of third-line production over the year (he even had a 20-goal campaign) but is best utilized as a fourth liner with some extra faceoff utility.  This contract is a bit pricey for someone with that profile but it’s not a significant overpayment either.

Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Philadelphia Flyers

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Hit: $83,322,620 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Samuel Ersson ($859K this season)
F Tyson Foerster (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Ersson $32.5K

Foerster impressed in limited action last season and has become a full-time regular this year.  That said, he’s more of a secondary player at this point which likely has him heading for a short-term second contract, especially with the limited action as a rookie.  If he finds another gear offensively next season and pushes into the 40-point-pace range, he could surpass the $2MM mark on that agreement.

Ersson has already signed his second contract so we’ll look at that in more detail shortly but it’s worth noting his bonuses are based on games played.  The exact number needed isn’t known but the lower end of a games played bonus is usually around 20.  If that’s the case here, he has already reached it.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

G Carter Hart ($3.979MM, RFA)
D Nick Seeler ($775K, UFA)
D Marc Staal ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Sean Walker ($2.65MM, UFA)
D Yegor Zamula ($775K, RFA)

Walker was picked up from the Kings in the summer with his inclusion appearing to primarily be for cap purposes.  However, the 29-year-old has rebuilt his value nicely, spending a lot of time on the second pairing.  Now, instead of a likely pay cut had this season gone like last year, Walker is set up to potentially land a small raise on a multi-year agreement.  In the meantime, he is a speculative trade candidate as is Seeler.  Seeler has become a regular with the Flyers over the last year and a half after being a player on the fringes of the roster.  His playing time is still somewhat limited as he’s a full-time part of the third pairing.  Philadelphia is believed to be interested in an extension, one that should push into the $1.25MM to the $1.5MM range.

Staal signed with the Flyers early in free agency to give them a bridge veteran, allowing them to keep some of their youngsters in AHL Lehigh Valley a little longer.  He has missed time with injuries and has been scratched at times as well.  Accordingly, while it’s possible he lands another deal to fill that type of role, it’s likely to come in closer to the league minimum.  As for Zamula, he hasn’t been in the lineup every night but he has more than held his own and is even seeing time on the second power play unit at times.  Doubling his current AAV on a two-year bridge deal could be achievable for the 23-year-old.

Hart had been performing at a level similar to last season which had him on track to be qualified at just under $4.5MM.  However, his leave of absence pertaining to the sexual assault charge as part of the 2018 investigation into Canada’s World Junior team now has that outcome looking doubtful.  Now, a non-tender looks likely.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Cam Atkinson ($5.85MM, UFA)
F Morgan Frost ($2.1MM, RFA)
F Noah Cates ($2.65MM, RFA)
F Garnet Hathaway ($2.375MM, UFA)
F Travis Konecny ($5.5MM, UFA)
G Cal Petersen ($5MM, UFA)
D Cam York ($1.6MM, RFA)

After missing all of last season due to a herniated disk in his neck, Atkinson has been healthy all season long and is producing at close to a 50-point pace.  That’s on the high side for this price tag but that was likely expected when he signed this deal back with Columbus in 2017.  His next contract should check in closer to the $4MM mark if he can stay at that pace for another year and a half.

Konecny’s future with the Flyers has been speculated about for a while.  First, he looked like a long-term core piece but then when he took a step back in 2020-21 and then followed it up with just 16 goals the following year, some questioned if he was going to be part of those plans much longer.  Since then, he has authored a year and a half of top-line production and now, the idea of an extension is very much on the table.  If it happens, Philadelphia will be paying him off two career platform years which certainly will carry some risk while likely upping the price tag close to the $8MM mark.  But after leading the team in scoring last season and for most of this year, there’s a strong case to make to keep him around.

Cates has had a year to forget.  A broken foot kept him out for the better part of two months and in between, he has struggled mightily, sitting on just one goal in 28 games.  This AAV will be his qualifying offer in 2025 and he’ll have arbitration rights again at that time.  There’s plenty of time to turn his fortunes around but at this point, a non-tender could be on the table if his struggles continue.

Hathaway signed a surprisingly high contract for someone who is best deployed on the fourth line but the Flyers put extra value in trying to fill his particular role.  It would be surprising to see another raise coming but in a more favorable cap environment, it’s not out of the realm of possibility either.  Frost had a breakout year last season, earning a nice bridge deal for his troubles but he has struggled somewhat this season while John Tortorella has scratched him frequently, leading to trade speculation.  At this point, a one-year deal after this one that basically works as a second bridge might be the most likely outcome; that contract would check in a bit higher than his $2.4MM qualifying offer if his production stays in its current range.

York is also on his bridge contract and while the offensive potential he showed in the US National Team Development Program and in college hasn’t quite translated to big point totals yet, he’s logging heavy minutes.  That alone could help him double this price tag in 2025 and if the production comes, the cost of a long-term agreement will go up quite quickly.

Petersen was acquired as salary ballast in the Ivan Provorov three-way trade last summer and has spent most of the last year and a half in the minors.  With Hart’s absence, that should change but his struggles in his limited NHL action make this a steep overpayment.  If this continues, he’ll be closer to the $1MM territory as a free agent.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Nicolas Deslauriers ($1.75MM, UFA)
G Samuel Ersson ($1.4MM in 2024-25 and 2025-26, RFA)
D Jamie Drysdale ($2.3MM, RFA)
F Scott Laughton ($3MM, UFA)
F Ryan Poehling ($1.4MM this season, $1.9MM in 2024-25 and 2025-26, UFA)

Laughton has shown he can play in the top six but is likely best utilized as a third-line middleman.  This price tag is certainly quite fair for that role which is why teams are starting to call about his potential availability.  With a 43-point season under his belt, there’s room for his price tag to grow if he’s able to produce near that level with any type of consistency; doing so could push him into the $4MM range.

Deslauriers is another player they willingly gave more than market value to in order to have their desired grit on the fourth line.  While he has had some success offensively in the past, he is starting to slow down on that front.  Another contract is definitely achievable (even at 35 which he’ll be when this deal ends) but it should come in closer to the minimum next time.  Poehling has held his own in a bottom-six role and inked his new deal recently, a nice outcome for someone who was non-tendered last summer.  He’ll need to become more productive to have a chance at getting third center money.

Drysdale was acquired less than a month ago and has fit in nicely so far.  Injuries have limited him significantly the last two seasons which hasn’t helped to firm up where his expected long-term deal after this one will land.  If he lives up to his upside and stays healthy, he should become Philadelphia’s top-paid blueliner.  But if the injury trouble continues, that will certainly scale that price tag down.

Ersson impressed down the stretch last year, landing this extension before the 2023-24 campaign started.  It’s a move that looks better now as he had pushed his way into more playing time early on and is now their likely starter the rest of the way.  He’ll have that time to show if he’s a legitimate number one or more of a backup with the range of outcomes money-wise stretching past a few million per season depending on how he plays.

Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $83,603,531 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F William Cuylle (two years, $828.3K)
D Braden Schneider (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Cuylle: $82.5K
Schneider: $400K
Total: $482.5K

Cuylle has done a nice job in a full-time bottom six role in his first taste of NHL duty.  His offensive numbers aren’t going to stand out by any stretch but it’s a nice way to ease him in.  This will certainly limit his earnings upside on his next contract, however; a bridge deal in the $1.5MM to $2MM range might be his best-case scenario.  Bonus-wise, his are based on games played so right now, he’s trending to reach that full amount.

Schneider has been a regular on New York’s back end dating back to last season but his role has been rather limited so far as basically a permanent third-pairing piece.  That should have his next contract around the $1.5MM mark as well.  For him, his bonuses are ‘A’ ones and the only ones he might have a shot at are blocked shots (needs to finish in the top two for defensemen) and plus/minus (top three among Ranger blueliners).  At the moment, he doesn’t qualify to reach either of them.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Nick Bonino ($800K, UFA)
F Jonny Brodzinski ($762.5K, UFA)
D Erik Gustafsson ($825K, UFA)
F Kaapo Kakko ($2.1MM, RFA)
D Ryan Lindgren ($3MM, RFA)
F Tyler Pitlick ($787.5K, UFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($825K, UFA)
F Blake Wheeler ($800K, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Quick: $100K
Wheeler: $300K
Total: $400K

After getting 40 points last season, it looked like Kakko was heading in the right direction but he has struggled this year.  Still, it’s unlikely New York will give up on the 2019 second-overall pick.  However, they might want to go much higher than his $2.4MM qualifying offer.  Wheeler took a well below-market contract to go to the Rangers and while his numbers are down compared to his time in Winnipeg, he’s also playing lower in the lineup.  He’s worth more on the open market if he wants to max his money out next summer or he could stick with this route on a potential contender.  His bonuses are based on games played and have already been achieved.

Bonino made sense as a low-cost depth option with what should have been some offensive upside although he hasn’t been able to display that this season.  This close to the league minimum, he could land a similar deal on the open market next summer but could also be a PTO candidate.  Pitlick has been on near-minimum deals over the last couple of seasons and as a depth player this season, that’s unlikely to change.  He could get a contract at a similar price point in the summer or might have to go the PTO route as he did the year before.  Brodzinski, meanwhile, has been a dominant AHL scorer but hasn’t produced much in the NHL.  While he’s also likely going to stay around the league minimum, he should be able to at least land a one-way contract for next season.

Lindgren is one of New York’s more interesting expiring deals this summer.  He’s a very effective defensive defenseman but simply doesn’t put up many points to help drive his price tag up.  His qualifying offer is $3.6MM and he should get more than that but his ceiling might be closer to the $4.5MM range even with arbitration rights.  Notably, he’s a year away from UFA eligibility.  Gustafsson, meanwhile, is the exact opposite.  He is a productive offensive defender but struggles considerably in his own end.  Settling for this contract after a 42-point campaign suggests that teams aren’t willing to pay a premium for the points knowing his defensive struggles and the need to shelter him at five-on-five.  A small raise past the $1MM mark wouldn’t be shocking but it’s hard to project a big increase.

Expectations weren’t high for Quick after a rough 2022-23 campaign but he has been a difference-maker for the Rangers this season.  However, he just turned 38 so it’s unlikely there will be teams looking at him as a starter or a strong-side platoon option.  If he wants to go for the money, he could do better than this on the open market but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him stay or take a similar deal to this one with a contender for next season.  The details of his bonuses aren’t known.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Zachary Jones ($812.5K, RFA)
F Alexis Lafreniere ($2.325MM, RFA)
D K’Andre Miller ($3.82MM, RFA)
G Igor Shesterkin ($5.667MM, UFA)
F Jimmy Vesey ($800K, UFA)

With Lafreniere scuffling through his first few NHL seasons, it came as no surprise that he followed Kakko in signing a bridge deal.  He’s fared a bit better in his first year under Peter Laviolette although he hasn’t yet become that consistent top threat that they hoped he’d be when they picked him first overall in 2020.  If he keeps at his current pace and then takes another small step forward next year, he’ll certainly do enough to beat his $2.65MM qualifying offer.  But will New York be convinced that he’s worthy of that long-term big-money contract in the $7MM range if that happens?  Or might they try one more bridge deal (likely a one-year pact) worth closer to half that?  It’s still early but there is a wide range of outcomes when it comes to his next deal.

Vesey opted to avoid going through free agency, instead choosing to sign this contract in-season last year.  It gives him some stability while he has outperformed the deal so far as a capable depth scorer.  Having bounced around in his career will hurt him a bit if he gets to free agency next time as teams will wonder if he’s turned a late corner or if he’s just a fit for how the Rangers play.  Still, a small raise at a minimum should be doable.

Miller had no choice but to take a bridge deal over the summer as well given New York’s limited cap space.  He continues to be a valuable two-way piece on their back end despite not seeing much power play time.  Miller will be owed a $4.646MM qualifying offer in 2025 but his next contract could check in closer to double his current one if a long-term agreement is worked out.  Jones, on the other hand, has had a very limited role so far.  He’ll need to lock down a full-time spot if he wants to reach the seven-figure mark on his next deal.

Shesterkin has been one of the top goalies since coming over for the 2019-20 campaign although his first half of this season has been more pedestrian.  Still, the 28-year-old is regarded as one of the top netminders league-wide and he’ll be well-positioned to capitalize on that reputation on this next contract.  He’ll likely look to Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (seven years, $8.5MM on his recent extension) as a starting point for discussions.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Artemi Panarin ($11.643MM, UFA)
D Jacob Trouba ($8MM, UFA)

No one will ever call Panarin’s contract – the richest for a winger in NHL history – a bargain but at the same time, it’s fair to say that he has lived up to it so far, producing at a 105-point per 82-game rate to put him among the top-scoring forwards in the league.  There’s little reason to think a big collapse is on the horizon but that concern should come into play on his next deal, one that’s likely to be more of a medium-term agreement at a small discount on his current rate given the age risk.

Trouba hasn’t been able to get back to the offensive highs he reached in his final season with Winnipeg but for the tough minutes he logs, the captain is still providing some value on this deal.  Having said that, if he wants to land any sort of sizable raise, he’ll need to rediscover at least some of that scoring touch.  Otherwise, his next deal should check in close to this one.

Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $84,906,199 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Simon Holmstrom (one year, $863K)

After a quiet rookie year, Holmstrom has become a shorthanded scoring specialist this season, being among the league leaders in that department.  Even so, he is primarily deployed in a bottom-six role which will limit his earnings upside.  A bridge deal seems quite likely although he could push his way toward the $1.5MM mark if he can keep up his current pace.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Sebastian Aho ($825K, UFA)
D Robert Bortuzzo ($950K, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($1MM, UFA)

After an injury-riddled 2022-23 campaign, Clutterbuck has managed to stay healthy this season and play a bigger role than many expected.  Still, he’s 36 with a lot of physical games under his belt.  In theory, he should be looking at a dip in pay but GM Lou Lamoriello has gone to painstaking lengths to keep his fourth line together so it’s hard to rule out the possibility of another deal like this one.  Martin’s injury issues should limit his mark but again, a lower-cost extension heading into his age-35 year is likely an option at least being considered.

Reilly has fared pretty well since coming over on a waiver claim from Florida.  Given his limited NHL time the last couple of seasons though, it’s hard to foresee a big raise coming his way.  Perhaps something closer to $1.5MM if he keeps up his current production in the second half but for him, securing a multi-year agreement might be more of a priority.  Bortuzzo was brought in to cover some minutes in the wake of the injuries on the back end but is likely looking at something near the minimum if he wants to play a 14th NHL season.  Aho has established himself as a regular over the last couple of seasons and showed a bit of offensive upside last year.  That should push him into the $1.5MM range on a multi-year deal; he should have a few suitors on the open market.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Noah Dobson ($4MM, RFA)
F Hudson Fasching ($775K, UFA)
F Julien Gauthier ($787.5K, UFA)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM, UFA)
F Kyle Palmieri ($5MM, UFA)
D Alexander Romanov ($2.5MM, RFA)

Nelson has had somewhat of a career resurgence in recent years, putting up his best two years in the last two seasons and is hovering near a 70-point pace again this season.  That makes him a bit of a bargain, a thought that didn’t seem as likely when this contract was first signed.  If he can hold this pace over the next year and a half, another small jump could be doable on a shorter-term agreement.

Adding Palmieri made sense to try to add to New York’s offense in 2021 but it’s fair to say that he has underwhelmed on that front since being acquired.  He’s getting paid more at the level of a 45-point player and injuries have stopped him from getting more than 33 in a single season yet.  It’s not a crippling overpayment but he’s going to need to do more if he wants to get this much on the open market in 2025.  Gauthier and Fasching are end-of-roster players that, at this point, appear likely to remain around the minimum salary moving forward.

When the Islanders opted to use their leverage to get Dobson to take a bridge deal, it was one that it looked like he’d outperform fairly quickly.  It’s safe to say that has happened and then some.  After putting up 100 points over the last two seasons, the 24-year-old is now around the point-per-game mark, making him one of the top-scoring blueliners in the NHL.  We know point producers get paid but add his strong two-way play to his output and New York has a player primed for a hefty increase in salary.  At this point, with Dobson having arbitration rights, it’s looking like the question won’t be if he’ll double his current AAV but rather by how much more it’ll go up beyond that.

Romanov was another player who was more or less forced into a bridge contract with their cap situation at the time.  The 24-year-old has been a consistent presence on the second pairing over the last few years but doesn’t have the offensive numbers to push him into the higher-paid tier of defenders.  Still, a long-term agreement that buys out some UFA eligibility should go past the $4MM mark.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($5MM, UFA)
F Anders Lee ($7MM, UFA)

Lee has been an impactful power forward for most of his time with the Isles but is starting to show signs of slowing down.  He’ll be 36 when this deal is up and his next contract, if there is one, will likely be half of this one or less.  Pageau, meanwhile, has been a steady middle-six center over the past several years although his production has dipped this season as well.  If he’s trending toward being more of a true third liner at this point, this deal will become an overpayment fairly quickly.  He’ll be 34 when this contract is up and he’ll likely be heading for a fair-sized dip in pay as well.

Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New Jersey Devils

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Hit: $82,601,228 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alexander Holtz (two years, $894K)
D Luke Hughes (two years, $925K)
F Dawson Mercer (one year, $894K)
D Simon Nemec (three years, $918K)
G Akira Schmid (one year, $851K)

Potential Bonuses
Holtz: $850K
Hughes: $925K
Mercer: $400K
Nemec: $3.25MM
Schmid: $57.5K
Total: $5.4825MM

Holtz has progressed to the point of being a regular player but it has been in somewhat of a limited role so far.  Basically halfway through his entry-level deal, it seems unlikely that he’ll dramatically improve to the point where he’ll bypass a long-term contract in 2025.  A short-term deal in the $2MM range seems likely while bonus-wise, he’ll need to produce a lot more to have a shot at reaching them.  The same can’t be said for Mercer who has a couple of strong seasons under his belt although his 2023-24 numbers are certainly down.  Nonetheless, GM Tom Fitzgerald may still want to look into a long-term deal that could approach the $6MM mark while a bridge would be a bit more than half of that.  Like Holtz, his bonuses are unlikely to be reached at his current pace.

Hughes did well in limited action down the stretch and in the playoffs last year and has locked down a full-time spot this season, playing top-four minutes.  He’s expected to be a core piece for years to come so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Fitzgerald try to push for a long-term agreement after 2025.  Such a deal could push past the $7MM mark if he produces as expected.  As things stand, he has a chance at hitting a handful of his ‘A’ bonuses, worth $212.5K apiece.  Nemec, meanwhile, was recently brought up and is just getting his feet wet at the NHL level.  He recently went past the nine-game mark, meaning he’ll burn the first year of his deal this season.  It’s too early to forecast his next contract but it’s worth noting that he’s unlikely to reach his bonuses.

As for Schmid, he made a big impact down the stretch last year, taking over as the starter.  Things haven’t gone anywhere near as well this season as he has struggled considerably.  He could still be a goalie of the future for New Jersey but with the inconsistency, he should be heading for a bridge deal that should check in under $2MM.  His bonuses are based on games played so it’s likely he’ll hit some of that amount even though he’s currently in the AHL.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Tyler Toffoli ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Michael McLeod ($1.4MM, RFA)
D Colin Miller ($1.85MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($1MM, UFA)
D Brendan Smith ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Chris Tierney ($775K, UFA)

Toffoli wasn’t able to reach an early extension in Calgary and was quickly moved to New Jersey despite coming off of a career year.  He is producing at a similar rate this season and if he can hold that up, he should be one of the better free agent wingers.  Last time in free agency, his market was a bit quieter than expected but he should be able to push past the $5MM mark on a longer-term agreement.  McLeod is on pace for his best offensive season and has been elite at the faceoff dot.  With arbitration eligibility, he could push for $2.5MM or more should it get to a hearing if he remains one of the top faceoff specialists in the NHL and keeps up this level of production.

Nosek had to wait a bit to get this contract, one that was a $750K dip from his last deal.  With this season being injury-plagued so far, he’s going to be hard-pressed to earn a raise even with his track record of being an effective fourth line middleman.  Tierney came over in free agency on a two-way deal and has earned a full-time spot on the roster.  Even so, he’s likely to remain around the minimum salary moving forward.

Miller had a quiet year in Dallas last season and the change of scenery hasn’t worked out the greatest; he has dealt with an injury and has been healthy scratched at times as well.  While he has a bit of offensive upside and is a right-shot defender, it’s possible he’s heading for a small dip in salary.  Smith can still hold his own on a third pairing and has shown previously that he can play up front if need be as well.  While he’ll be 35 next month, he could still land a contract close to this price tag.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Kevin Bahl ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Nathan Bastian ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($1MM, UFA)
G Vitek Vanecek ($3.4MM, UFA)

Bastian has been a bit quieter offensively this season compared to his last two years but he is holding down a regular spot on the fourth line.  He’ll be hard-pressed to get any sort of significant raise unless he can get back to his production since starting his second go-round with the franchise.  Lazar is in his first full year with the Devils after being acquired from Vancouver.  He’s a serviceable fourth line center and it’s likely his next deal will come in close to this one.

Bahl is in his first full season and is holding down a regular spot on the third pairing.  It’s unlikely he’ll move up in the lineup too often but even if he just stays in that role, he should get at least a small bump beyond his $1.2MM qualifying offer.

It has been an interesting first half of Vanecek’s contract in New Jersey.  Acquired to take over as the starter in the 2022 offseason, he had the best year of his career, getting into 52 games while posting the lowest GAA of his career (2.45) and the highest save percentage (.911).  And yet, when the playoffs came around, he wasn’t the starter and when he got his chance, he struggled mightily.  That has carried over to his play this season.  Value-wise, Vanecek only needs to be at the level of a good backup to provide value on his deal.  He has been well above that at times and well below it at others.  He’ll need to show some consistently strong performances in the next year and a half to set himself up for a bigger deal in free agency.  If he can, he could push past the $5MM mark.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Erik Haula ($3.15MM, UFA)

Haula fit in quite well as an above-average third center last season, resulting in a reasonably-priced extension back in June.  He only has three seasons with more than 40 points under his belt which limited his market in his previous trips through free agency.  If he can stay around that mark in each of these three years, he’ll have a lot more bargaining power next time out.

Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Columbus Blue Jackets

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Cap Hit: $80,952,057 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Adam Fantilli (three years, $950K)
D David Jiricek (three years, $918K)
F Kent Johnson (one year, $925K)
F Kirill Marchenko (one year, $925K)
F Cole Sillinger (one year, $925K)
F Dmitri Voronkov (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Fantilli: $3.2MM
Jiricek: $1MM
Johnson: $1.85MM
Marchenko: $850K
Sillinger: $850K
Total: $7.75MM

Fantilli has come as advertised, quickly becoming one of the top players for the Blue Jackets.  After briefly starting him on the wing, they’ve moved him down the middle where he has more than held his own.  While it’s still quite early to project his next deal, if he can progress as expected, he’s a candidate to bypass the bridge contract.  Comparables are around the $8MM mark now but that could be a little higher by 2026.  Marchenko didn’t put up many assists last season but after scoring 21 goals, the coaching staff probably didn’t mind.  He boasts a more typical scoring line early on this year and has established himself as a top-six piece.  However, he feels like more of a bridge candidate; another 20-goal campaign could put him in the $3MM range.

Voronkov’s short-term future was in question not long ago but he has decided to stick it out in North America.  He has settled in nicely in the bottom six and can play center and the wing.  He’s someone who profiles as a longer-term secondary piece which means he’s likely looking at a bridge deal as well, one that comes in a bit below Marchenko’s.  Sillinger had a nice rookie year but a rough sophomore campaign that has him still as a secondary piece.  That will have him looking at a short-term second contract, possibly even a one-year deal in the $1.5MM range.  Johnson, meanwhile, had a good first full season last year but has spent time in the minors this year, putting him squarely in bridge territory as well.  His might come closer to the $2MM mark.

Jiricek has been eased into a full-time role with the Blue Jackets this season, averaging around 14 minutes a night.  A decision will need to be made within the next month or so to determine whether they will let him accrue a year of service time toward free agency (triggered at 40 games on the roster).  In a perfect world, he progresses to the point where they lock him up long-term but it’s still too early to call at this point.

As for the bonuses, Fantilli has a shot at all four ‘A’ bonuses ($1MM total) while Marchenko could hit a couple of his ($212.5K each).  The other three are more long shots to hit any of theirs.  GM Jarmo Kekalainen will likely want to try to finish this season enough below the Upper Limit to absorb any of these on this year’s cap rather than rolling some of the costs over to 2024-25.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Jake Bean ($2.33MM, RFA)
F Emil Bemstrom ($900K, RFA)
D Nick Blankenburg ($825K, RFA)
F Yegor Chinakhov ($800K, RFA)
G Spencer Martin ($762.5K, UFA)
F Jack Roslovic ($4MM, UFA)
F Alexandre Texier ($1.525MM, RFA)

At times, Roslovic has been a productive cog but at others, he has struggled to the point of being dropped down in the lineup or even scratched.  That said, he has back-to-back years of at least 44 points and was on pace for that early on this year before an ankle injury took him out last month.  Impact centers are hard to come by so there will be teams showing interest even with his inconsistency; a multi-year contract around this price point should be doable for him.

Texier returned this season after spending 2022-23 in Switzerland; his contract was tolled as a result.  He has shown flashes of top-six upside but consistency continues to be an issue.  He’ll need a $1.75MM qualifying offer with arbitration eligibility.  Columbus should give it to him but his next contract shouldn’t cost much more than $2MM barring a big uptick in production in the second half.

Bemstrom has cleared waivers in each of the last two seasons but has worked his way back up to the NHL relatively quickly both times.  He’s a serviceable middle-six player but doesn’t have that one part of his game that makes him stand out.  A $945K qualifier isn’t too high but with arbitration rights, he will be in non-tender territory.  As for Chinakhov, he has voiced his frustration with his role and to his credit, he has been productive since then.  Still, he’s likely heading for another short-term deal.  This one should push past the $1MM mark with arbitration rights.

Bean had a good first season with the Blue Jackets in 2021-22 and looked like a key part of their top four on the blueline but injuries limited him last year while he has been a fixture on the third pairing this season.  He’s still young enough to not give up on but a $2.8MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights might be a bit too rich for what they’re willing to pay.  Blankenburg has been a nice college free agent addition to give Columbus more depth on the back end.  His waiver exemption has hurt him this season and will likely cap him on a short-term deal once again, one that could land around the $1MM mark.

Martin was claimed off waivers in training camp and while he has played better than he did in Vancouver last season, that’s a pretty low bar to clear; his numbers are well below average this season.  At this point, he looks more like a third option than a backup.  Even so, the way that market moved over the summer, Martin could still be in line for a small raise in free agency on a one-way agreement.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Adam Boqvist ($2.6MM, RFA)
F Justin Danforth ($975K in 2023-24, $1.1MM in 2024-25, UFA)
F Sean Kuraly ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Mathieu Olivier ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Ivan Provorov ($4.725MM, UFA)*
G Daniil Tarasov ($1.05MM, RFA)

*-Los Angeles is retaining another $2.025MM on Provorov’s contract

Kuraly had a career season in his first year with his hometown team but hasn’t been able to produce at that level since then.  Nonetheless, he’s still an effective checker who plays with an edge and can kill penalties.  This might be a small premium for someone who might be best served on the fourth line but they rely on him to play a big enough role to justify this cost although it’s hard to see him landing much more than that in 2025.

Olivier is a pugilist who can handle a regular shift.  There aren’t many of those still around so it’s possible he could still land a small raise on his next deal.  When healthy, Danforth has been a versatile piece who can play up and down the lineup and hold his own.  Getting that for close to a million a year is a nice piece of business.  If he can stay healthy, a jump to the $1.5MM range could be doable.

Provorov was one of their big acquisitions to bolster the back end over the summer after coming over in a three-way trade and the results have been mixed so far.  Nonetheless, he still is logging heavy minutes in all situations and will only be 28 when he hits unrestricted free agency.  Provorov’s offense hasn’t come around like Philadelphia hoped it would when they gave him his current contract but he has settled in nicely as a secondary contributor on that front.  Put that package on the open market in a more favorable cap environment and Provorov should be able to land at least a bit more than his current $6.75MM price tag (between what the Kings and Blue Jackets are paying him) while securing a max-term deal or close to it.

Boqvist was a key part of the return for Seth Jones but while he has shown some offensive promise in his time with Columbus, he has struggled to stay healthy (he’s currently out with a shoulder injury) and has spent time this season as a healthy scratch.  At this point, his $3.12MM qualifying offer might be a bit too pricey unless he’s able to establish himself as an every-game regular by the end of next season.

Tarasov has shown some promise in limited NHL action although he has struggled at times as well.  Ideally, he’s part of the longer-term solution between the pipes for Columbus but at this point, he needs to prove he’s worthy of the full-time backup role.  If he can do that, he could push for closer to $2MM as an RFA with arbitration rights.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Erik Gudbranson ($4MM, UFA)
F Boone Jenner ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Patrik Laine ($8.7MM, UFA)
D Andrew Peeke ($2.75MM, UFA)

While the price tag was high, the fact that Laine signed a multi-year deal to stay with Columbus looked good considering the player he was traded for basically forced his way out of Winnipeg.  When healthy the last two years, he has been near the point-per-game mark, helping to justify this price tag.  This year has been one to forget, however, between his struggles and multiple injuries.  He’ll need to get back to top form if he wants another contract anywhere near this price point.

As for Jenner, he has been underpaid for a lot of his tenure with Columbus.  He has become more of a scoring threat over the last few years while being a faceoff ace and logging big minutes in all situations.  He’ll be 33 when this deal ends but he should be able to land more than $5MM per season on a multi-year agreement if he can keep up this level of performance.

Gudbranson’s contract was widely panned from the moment it was signed as it seemed like an overpayment for someone best served on a third pairing.  He has played a bigger role than that with the Blue Jackets, allowing them to get more bang for their buck so far.  However, it would still be surprising to see him beat this price tag on his next deal.  Peeke, meanwhile, looked to be on the rise after logging more than 21 minutes a night the last two seasons, leading to this contract.  But this season, he has struggled to stay in the lineup, making him a potential change of scenery candidate.  He’ll need to get back to being a regular to have a shot at getting more than this in 2026.

Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Carolina Hurricanes

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $81,694,391 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jack Drury (one year, $925K)
F Seth Jarvis (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Jarvis: $500K

Jarvis had an impressive rookie season before stagnating a bit last year.  However, he is off to a big start this season, flirting with the point-per-game mark early on.  That has him well on his way toward hitting his bonuses at a minimum while he’s the type of player that it wouldn’t be surprising to see Carolina try to work out a long-term deal with.  A bridge contract likely checks in around the $4MM mark while a longer-term pact could push closer to $6.5 to $7MM.  Drury has carved out a regular role this season, albeit on the fourth line.  If he holds onto that for the full season, he could push for a small raise on a short-term bridge contract.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Jalen Chatfield ($762.5K, UFA)
D Tony DeAngelo ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($800K, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Martin Necas ($3MM, RFA)
F Stefan Noesen ($762.5K, UFA)
D Brett Pesce ($4.025MM, UFA)
G Antti Raanta ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Brady Skjei ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Teuvo Teravainen ($5.4MM, UFA)

Teravainen has reached 63 points or more in three of the last five seasons but is also coming off a down year that saw him score just 12 times in 68 games, making this a key platform year.  He’s off to a nice start and is near that goal total from 2022-23 already.  If he can get back to even the 50-point mark, he could have a shot at landing a small raise on another long-term agreement.  Martinook had a career year offensively last season with 34 points but is still looking for his first goal this year despite logging nearly 15 minutes a night.  His typical offensive profile is one that should see him signing for a bit less than this, especially if he’s able to secure another multi-year agreement.

Necas is going to be a particularly interesting case to follow.  He had a breakout 71-point performance last season, providing impressive value on the first year of his bridge deal.  He also spent some time at center, his natural position but one he hasn’t played a ton in the NHL.  At this point, Necas has established himself as a full-time top-six forward and will have arbitration eligibility for the first time this summer.  His qualifying offer is $3.5MM but that’s well below what he’ll get on his next deal.  His camp would probably like to see Necas deployed more down the middle to bolster his value but that might be injury-dependent.  If Carolina wants to lock him up long-term, they’ll need to at least double his current AAV.

Lemieux had to take a $550K pay cut in free agency this past summer and has found himself out of the lineup more often than not this year which doesn’t bode well for his next contract.  He’s going to wind up close to the minimum salary once again and even a one-way deal might not be guaranteed.  Noesen has been one of the top under-the-radar bargains after putting up 36 points on a minimum-salary contract; he’s on pace for more than that this year with the AAV now below the minimum.  His journeyman track record will work against him here (is it a late breakout for the 30-year-old or is he just the right system fit?) but even so, he should push for closer to $2MM on the open market.  If enough teams think it’s a late breakout, that number will go higher.

Skjei had never reached the 10-goal mark until last season when he broke out with an 18-goal campaign.  He has consistently been a strong third option on the back end and should be in a position to land at least a small raise and, at 30, close to a max-term agreement if he wants to pursue that long of a contract.  Pesce has been in trade speculation dating back to the summer as many suspect the Hurricanes won’t be able to keep him in the fold.  Like Skjei, he’s a reliable second pairing player but has a better defensive game but a weaker offensive one.  The fact he’s also a right-hand shot will also help his market.  Both players should land somewhere in the $6MM range.

DeAngelo was a late entrant into free agency after being bought out by the Flyers after a planned trade to the Hurricanes didn’t go through quite as planned.  Unfortunately, the reunion hasn’t been great so far as playing time has been hard to come by and he has struggled.  Nonetheless, a contract similar to this one could still be doable from a team looking to add some offensive upside on the back end at a lower cost.  Chatfield has worked his way up to being a reliable sixth defender with very strong possession numbers.  He’s the type of player that a team or two might believe is capable of a bigger role which could drive his price tag past the $2MM mark.

Raanta acknowledged that he left money on the table to remain with Carolina over the summer.  That might wind up biting him a bit in the end as he has struggled considerably this season which won’t help his marketability this summer.  That said, if he can turn things around, something in this range should still be doable, perhaps with the Hurricanes if they want to keep the extra depth.

Signed Through 2024-25

G Frederik Andersen ($3.4MM, UFA)
D Brent Burns ($5.28MM, UFA)*
F Jesper Fast ($2.4MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Orlov ($7.75MM, UFA)
D Jaccob Slavin ($5.3MM, UFA)

*-San Jose is retaining an additional $2.72MM on Burns’ contract.

Fast has been a capable depth scorer for most of his career while also being an effective penalty killer.  Assuming that holds up over these last two years – he’s off to a bit of a slow start this season – there’s little reason to think he could land another two or three seasons around this price point.  It’s worth noting he’ll be 34 at that time, however, which may restrict his market a bit.

Orlov surprised many by signing the priciest deal in free agency in terms of AAV, electing to take a short-term inflated contract with the hopes of landing another one in a more favorable marketplace two years from now.  It was also surprising that Carolina was the one to give it to him with the depth they had on the back end plus them needing to re-sign or replace Skjei and Pesce a year from now.  The move hasn’t worked out the greatest so far although there’s lots of time to turn it around.  He’ll also be 34 when it’s time to sign his next contract so it’d be difficult to expect he’d land this much, even with the projected raise in the cap.  But if it came in starting with a six on a three-year deal (or even four) if he’s able to turn his play around, going this route could ultimately work out well for him.

Slavin hasn’t been asked to play true number one minutes recently but that doesn’t mean he can’t handle them; he’ll almost be certainly valued as someone who can in free agency.  He’s not a top point producer but he has shown progress on that front as well while being a stalwart in his own end.  Accordingly, he could be pushing for $8MM or more on a max-term agreement, even though he’ll be 31 at that time.  Burns has fit in quite well with Carolina while still playing a big role.  However, he’ll be entering free agency at age 40.  Will he even want to sign another deal?  If he does, it’ll almost certainly be a one-year agreement, setting up the ability for a team to make some of it bonus-based for additional cap flexibility.

Andersen also took a pay cut to remain with Carolina over the summer and he was also off to a rough start to his season.  However, he’s now out indefinitely with blood clots and it wouldn’t be fair to speculate on his next deal until he’s able to return.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Michael Bunting ($4.5MM, UFA)

Bunting went from being a fringe piece with Arizona to an integral part of Toronto’s top six over the last two seasons, making him one of the more intriguing players to hit the market over the summer.  He didn’t quite wind up with a long-term deal but this one should hold up pretty well if he can provide around 45 points a year on the second line.  If he does, he’ll have a much more favorable market next time around having proven he can produce outside of Toronto.

Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $89,210,531 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Kaedan Korczak (one year, $789.1K)

Potential Bonuses
Korczak: $82.5K

Korczak has bounced back and forth between Vegas and AHL Henderson this season and that will likely continue.  He’s someone who could be a candidate for taking less than his qualifying offer in exchange for a one-way salary.  Meanwhile, his bonuses are games played-based and while it’s unlikely he’ll top out, he should reach at least some of that amount which, thanks to them being in LTIR, will result in a bonus carryover penalty for next season.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Michael Amadio ($762.5K, UFA)
F William Carrier ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Pavel Dorofeyev ($825K, RFA)
D Ben Hutton ($850K, UFA)
F Jonathan Marchessault ($5MM, UFA)
D Alec Martinez ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Daniil Miromanov ($762.5K, RFA)
F Chandler Stephenson ($2.75MM, UFA)

Marchessault had a strong showing last year with 57 points and followed that up with a Smythe-winning performance to help Vegas win the Stanley Cup.  Accordingly, some expected that he’d be a strong candidate for an early extension but the veteran acknowledged that there weren’t talks in the summer as GM Kelly McCrimmon tends to wait before handing out new deals.  That hesitation might be wise on the part of the Golden Knights as the 32-year-old is off to a slower start.  He’s still in line to get a multi-year deal but it might wind up coming closer to this AAV in the end whereas in the summer, he likely could have pushed for $6MM or more on a long-term agreement.

Stephenson has been one of the better bargains around the NHL in recent years; his trade from Washington certainly sparked his offense, making him a quality two-way center.  He’s also off to a quieter start this season but his recent track record will be good enough for some teams to view him as a second-line fit.  Accordingly, he should reach (or even surpass) the $5MM mark on the open market.  Carrier, one of the few remaining original expansion picks, hasn’t really moved up the depth chart over his now seven seasons in Vegas but remains an every-game fourth liner that brings plenty of physicality.  The open market isn’t always great for players in that role but after his good playoff showing, he could be one of the exceptions and push for closer to $2MM.

Dorofeyev is in his first full season with Vegas although a good chunk of that has been in a reserve role.  While he’s arbitration-eligible next summer, he also doesn’t have enough of an NHL track record to command much more than his $866K qualifying offer.  As for Amadio, he has become one of the better recent waiver claims around the league, going from a fringe player to a full-time bottom-six piece who has produced at a pretty good rate after notching 16 goals last season.  If he stays on the pace he’s on now for this year, he could easily double this AAV on the open market.

At the time Martinez’s deal was signed, the belief was that the final season could be a bit of a drag for the Golden Knights.  Unfortunately, injuries struck in the first year and since then, his minutes have been closer to the 19-minute mark compared to the 21 or 22 minutes he has been at in the past.  Effectively, he has gone from being a number two blueliner to a fourth option.  Given his age (36), that’s not entirely surprising.  His next deal, if there is one, is likely to be a one-year agreement closer to half this price point and could also contain some games played incentives.

Hutton is a serviceable seventh defender who can hold his own on the third pairing when needed.  It’s hard to see him commanding much more than this on the open market while the Golden Knights need to keep this roster spot as close to the league minimum as possible.  Miromanov lands on here due to his LTIR presence as he has yet to play this season.  When healthy, he’ll likely return to AHL Henderson and is another candidate to sign for less than his qualifier in exchange for a one-way deal in the summer.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Nicolas Hague ($2.294MM, RFA)
G Adin Hill ($4.9MM, UFA)
F Brett Howden ($1.9MM, UFA)
F Keegan Kolesar ($1.4MM, UFA)
G Robin Lehner ($5MM, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($2.85MM, UFA)
D Brayden Pachal ($775K, RFA)
D Shea Theodore ($5.2MM, UFA)
G Logan Thompson ($766.7K, UFA)

Howden wound up accepting what amounts to a third bridge deal over the summer, settling after filing for arbitration.  His production dropped last season and is at a similar clip this year although he plays an important role on the defensive side of things.  That said, unless his offense comes around, he’ll be in tough to get much more than this in free agency, even as a 27-year-old at that time.  Kolesar is in a similar situation as Carrier, just without quite as long of a track record.  He’s a true fourth liner which limits his earnings upside but some team is going to look at him playing a regular role in the playoffs last year and use that to justify an above-market offer that could also push him into the $2MM range.

Theodore showed plenty of promise but was a little inconsistent early in his time with the Golden Knights, understandable given his age at the time.  That has changed now as he has become an all-around all-situations player who can log big minutes on the top pairing.  His offensive game has blossomed to the point where he could make a case for number one money if he gets to the open market.  Not to the top-end level, mind you, but a long-term deal in the $9MM range could be doable.  It might be tough for Vegas to match that price point, however, so if he wants to stay with them, Theodore might have to leave a bit of money on the table to do so.

McNabb has turned into a reliable second-pairing shutdown defender over his tenure with Vegas.  He’s being paid at the level of a higher-end depth piece so this contract has certainly worked in their favor.  The offense is limited which hurts to an extent but we’ve seen shutdown blueliners go well past $4MM in recent years.  It seems reasonable to think McNabb will land there as well.

Hague was basically limited to a bridge deal in 2022 with Vegas not having enough cap room to entertain a longer-term agreement.  However, his play has largely leveled out since then, slotting in as a fourth or fifth defender most nights.  This is still a good value contract but perhaps a long-term next summer might cost less than it could have if Vegas had the ability to offer one last time out.  He’ll be owed a $2.7MM qualifier and should land more than that with arbitration rights but his cap might be in the $4MM range if he stays at this level.  Pachal is waiver-eligible this season which has helped keep him on the NHL roster.  He’s in a depth role at the moment and until he can lock down a full-time spot on the third pairing, it’s hard to see him getting much more than this even with arbitration rights.

Lehner missed all of last season after undergoing hip surgery and remains on LTIR now.  At this point, it’s reasonable to suggest that he might be on there for all of next season as well, especially based on what they did with Hill this summer.

Speaking of Hill, he certainly benefitted from his strong playoff performance, earning a deal that few would have seen coming just a few months earlier.  It’s a deal they could afford thanks to Lehner’s LTIR.  So far, he has been even better this season.  It’s early but if he can maintain that level, he could push closer to the $6MM range on a long-term agreement.  If he goes back to his level of play before his time in Vegas, he’s still on the upper end for platoon players so he could still come close to this contract.

As for Thompson, his first full season was quite good, earning an All-Star nod while finishing second on the All-Rookie team.  Hill’s playoff run largely took away from that but Thompson remains an above-average NHL netminder with a cap hit below the league minimum, making him one of the top bargain deals in the league (and one I missed in a recent mailbag when discussing value deals).  Even if he stays in a platoon through the end of this contract, he could also push past the $4MM mark, especially if multiple teams see him as a true starter.  If that happens, $5MM or more becomes doable.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Paul Cotter ($775K, RFA)
F Jack Eichel ($10MM, UFA)

Vegas landed their long-coveted top center when they acquired Eichel and while no one can say that his contract is well below market value, they’re getting a decent return value-wise.  Last season, he was close to a point-per-game player and is near that mark again this year.  Accordingly, given the demand for centers, if he was on the open market today, he’d get pretty close to this, perhaps even a bit more.  He’ll be 30 when he hits free agency and while there could be a cheaper year or two at the end on a max-term agreement, a small raise could still be doable.  Cotter has become a quality fourth liner who can move up in a pinch.  Three years for that at the minimum is a nice piece of business.  If he can stay as a regular throughout the deal, he could have a shot at doubling this in free agency.

Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Hit: $86,578,549 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None on the active roster

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Anthony Beauvillier ($4.15MM, UFA)
F Teddy Blueger ($1.9MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($3MM, UFA)
G Casey DeSmith ($1.8MM, UFA)
D Mark Friedman ($775K, UFA)
F Dakota Joshua ($825K, UFA)
D Filip Hronek ($4.4MM, RFA)
F Sam Lafferty ($1.15MM, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM, UFA)
F Elias Pettersson ($7.35MM, RFA)

Headlines were made when discussions about an extension with Pettersson were called off by the center’s camp, citing a desire to play out the season and see where things sit.  That apparently is on hold now as GM Patrik Allvin acknowledged recently that they’re working on a new deal.  It’s fair to say it will be a very pricey one.  After a career year last season, he’s off to an even better start in 2023-24 and has been among the league leaders in scoring (at times the outright leader).  He plays a premium position and is a year away from UFA eligibility which also works in Pettersson’s favor.  Heading into the year, an AAV between $10.5MM and $11MM felt like a possible landing spot.  Now, it seems likely to fall about a million higher.

Beauvillier came over as part of the Bo Horvat trade last season and did well with his new team down the stretch but has underachieved this season.  He has reached at least 18 goals in four of the last six years, however, and that type of offensive consistency will help on the open market.  A big raise doesn’t seem likely but something near this on the open market could be doable.  Blueger opted for a one-year deal over the summer after splitting last season between Pittsburgh and Vegas.  As a bottom-six forward, his market shouldn’t be much stronger next summer unless he’s either able to hit new benchmarks offensively or is able to sustain his 56% success rate on the draw that he had down the stretch with Vegas.

Lafferty was acquired late in training camp with Toronto needing to clear salary.  When he was with Chicago, he did well in a middle-six role but was a lot quieter on the fourth line with the Maple Leafs.  Things have gone well so far with his new team which could push his AAV closer to the $2MM mark in the summer.  As for Joshua, he did quite well in his first year with Vancouver last season, his first full year of NHL action.  If he gets to the double-digit-goal mark again while bringing plenty of physicality, he could double this on the open market.

Myers was the subject of trade speculation throughout the summer but remains with Vancouver.  He’s still capable of playing in the top four although his best role might be as a fifth that moves up when injuries arise.  In free agency, that’s closer to a $3.5MM player.  It’s worth noting that the bulk of his salary was paid in September as a signing bonus so if he was to be acquired midseason, his new team wouldn’t have to pay much in the way of actual money.  Hronek was brought in from Detroit at the trade deadline, a confusing move on the surface for a team that was selling.  He has been quite productive early on so far and should be in good shape to land much more than his $5.28MM qualifying offer this summer.  Like Pettersson, he has just one year of club control remaining.  Friedman has played regular minutes since being acquired early in the year but has cleared waivers in two straight years now, suggesting that he will probably stay near the minimum moving forward.

DeSmith is another newcomer to the team after being acquired at the start of training camp.  Over the last few years, he has been a capable backup and with that market going up in recent years, a good showing this season could propel him to a deal closer to the $3MM mark next summer.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Brock Boeser ($6.65MM, UFA)
D Guillaume Brisebois ($775K, UFA)
F Phillip Di Giuseppe ($775K, UFA)
D Akito Hirose ($787.5K, RFA)
F Nils Hoglander ($1.1MM, RFA)
D Noah Juulsen ($775K, UFA)
F Andrei Kuzmenko ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Tucker Poolman ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Pius Suter ($1.6MM, UFA)

Boeser was in trade speculation last season when things weren’t going too well offensively.  He stated his desire to stay and got his wish.  That has worked out quite well considering the hot start he has had.  That said, if he stays in the 25-goal range, it’s hard to see this price tag going much higher; he’ll need to carry this hot start to a career year to have a shot at any sort of significant raise.  Kuzmenko had a very strong first NHL season but with his track record being short, the two sides ultimately worked out a bridge extension.  If he has two more years of 70 or more points, he could push past the $7MM mark in 2025.

Suter was a late signing in free agency after a down year with Detroit.  That said, he has scored at least 14 goals in each of his first three NHL seasons and spent most of that time at center.  As long as he holds down a regular spot on the third line, they’ll do well with this contract.  Meanwhile, a couple more years scoring at that rate would give Suter a much better platform to hit the open market with.  Hoglander spent most of last year in the minors but did enough before that to get a seven-figure bridge deal.  Now, it’s about re-establishing himself as a regular and if he can produce in a top-nine role (he’s not an ideal fourth line candidate), he could push for closer to $2MM with arbitration rights.  Di Giuseppe has largely been a journeyman, often splitting time between the NHL and AHL with several organizations but has found a home with Vancouver where he’s seeing regular minutes and producing.  Given his age (30), it’s unlikely a significant bump is coming his way but if he stays a regular, a one-way deal around the $1.5MM mark could be doable.

Poolman is once again on LTIR with concussion issues that have limited him to just 43 games with the Canucks over the last two seasons, only three of which came last year.  At this point, it’s hard to see him playing again.  If he does try to push through it and play after this deal, his injury history will limit him to a league-minimum contract.  Hirose impressed after signing as a college free agent down the stretch, earning this deal for his efforts, one that converts to a one-way salary next season.  If he’s established as a roster regular at that point (even if he’s in the sixth or seventh depth role), arbitration eligibility would push him past $1MM.  As for Juulsen and Brisebois, both are depth defenders who are likely to continue to stay at or close to the minimum moving forward.

Signed Through 2025-26

G Thatcher Demko ($5MM, UFA)
F Conor Garland ($4.95MM, UFA)
F Ilya Mikheyev ($4.75MM, UFA)
D Carson Soucy ($3.25MM, UFA)

Garland has been a capable secondary scorer throughout his career but his contract was viewed as a negative with Arizona and he’s now in that situation with Vancouver despite starting off rather well with them.  While his agent has been given permission to try to facilitate a move, that will be hard to do without salary retention and possibly taking a contract back.  Meanwhile, Garland will need to get back to the 50-point mark if he wants a shot at another deal like this.  Mikheyev’s contract raised some eyebrows given his limited track record and injury history with Toronto.  However, when healthy, he has produced at a rate worthy of this type of contract.  If he can continue that and stay off the injury list, he could tick past the $5MM mark next time.

Soucy came over from Seattle as a pricey third pairing option.  He does well in his limited role, however, which helps to justify the price tag.  Given his playing style and the fact he’ll be entering his age-32 year on his next contract though, it would be surprising to see a big raise coming his way.

When Demko is on his game, he can be among the top goalies in the league.  We saw it a couple of years ago when Vancouver nearly pulled off the improbable comeback to make the playoffs (coming up just short) and we’re seeing it early on this year.  When things are going well, this is a contract that’s well below market value.  Of course, things didn’t go anywhere near as well last season which was a big reason for their drop in the standings.  While the starting goalie market has largely stagnated lately with the backups getting a boost in free agency instead, Demko could help break that trend.  If he plays up to his capabilities for the rest of this contract, a long-term deal worth $7MM or more should be doable.  If it goes really well, he’ll be eyeing Connor Hellebuyck’s $8.5MM but his track record isn’t as strong at the moment.

Read more

Pro Hockey Rumors is not affiliated with National Hockey League, NHL or NHL.com

scroll to top